WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, I have to leave for work, and will be voting from my phone right as I walk in. Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Could someone be so kind as to give me a vote count? I'll slip an extra cupcake in with your morning mail!

Just a few posts above yours... post #71.

[Nogrod]

Twenty minutes. Where are you people?

Any new ideas, anyone?

[Nogrod]

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

[Nogrod]

Voting then...

++ Pitch


EDIT: X'd with Sally...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay... not sure what the vote count is now, but I think G55 is still more creepy than Pitch.

++Galadriel55

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think G55 is still more creepy than Pitch.

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just a few posts above yours... post #71.

Whoops. Indeed.

Pitch's vote made me uneasy when I saw it yesterday, and it still looks suspicious this morning. Thus, I believe I'm going to go with my (still a bit squeamish) gut.

++Pitch

I doubt I'll be back again before DL, but hopefully the lynch goes good. Until later, my dears!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, Nog's latter posts actually sound very moderate and he has a point (even though he's reiterating what e.g. I think Zil or who it was already said about the situation of that hypothetical Day 4). That makes me discard the idea of voting him now. If I were to choose from the other people who already have votes, then G55 might be an option, probably the best one. But I don't know. Generally I must say I am rather clueless. Pitch was also a tad suspicious, but the cobbler-talk was equally strongly performed by Agan, so that makes them basically even, maybe the only "bonus" on Pitch's side was also the Kath-comment. But really probably G55 would be the best pick. I don't have any strong subject among the rest enough to push it (I'll be watching Lommy for the Menel-wagoning early on and the general "harshness", but maybe it was just the state of mind), as if it mattered at this point anyway...

EDIT: x-ed with several Nogs

[Aganzir]

Two of my favourite players gone (and partly because of me - sorry Pitch!). Where's the fun now? I quit.

Also, sorry G55, I lied. I'm not the seer.

I've had a fantastic day complete with psychopatic coworkers, meeting people who've done bad things and whom bad things have happened to, and sexual harassment. I'm drained and might go to sleep rather early.

By the way Nog, I saw you smoking in front of Kaisla just an hour ago. Whenever you look out the bus/car window when passing a pub, expect Nog to be there.

Also, for the sake of fairness I should tell you that while tortoise hunting yesterday, Lommy walked in on me sending a werewolf related PM (the contents of which she didn't see before I shooed her off). I may tell you who it was for when the game is over - before that, you're free to guess if you'd like.

Anyway.

I see Zilly's point in defending Menel and I don't think it necessarily means he dreamt of him. It's just, Menel looked like such an easy target, so even if only a couple of people had suspected him so far, it had the potential to develop into something more serious.

Originally Posted by G55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

To be honest, he did not leave a trail in your direction. If he hadn't been the seer, his death would've looked none the worse for you. I find it extremely unlikely the wolves killed him to frame you, which you seem to be suggesting here.

I think G55's posts about Inzil's death look like damage control at the moment.

It seems Shasta hasn't only been misquoting me but also G55.

There's also the possibility, even if slight, that the cobbler thwarted Inzil's dream on night 1. Unless I'm totally utterly mistaken, she was allowed to try her luck at the very beginning.

Ps. I love blood.

[Kath]

Oh MASSIVE headdesk about Pitch - sorry! I caught up on yesterDay but clearly had a stupid moment as I was thinking about Inzil.

Well, then, as Pitch is innocent ... G55 is more likely to be a wolf based on what I said earlier. Hopefully that now makes a bit more sense.

I will try to develop more of a brain for future use!

[Kath]

As I'm clearly not with it ... I will vote now.

++Galadriel55

Based on my analysis of Inzil, the only real clues he seemed to leave were about Menel and G55. The ones about G55 seemed clearer and the ones about Menel pointed to his innocence anyway.

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm getting pretty sure Kath (this trumpet makes you my girl) is innocent.

I also doubt Nog is a wolf. If he was, someone quieter than Inzil would have been killed.

I have no read on sally and Glirdan. I may vote for one of them if they keep being quiet (except we can't really afford to waste lynches) even though I understand it's because of RL reasons. But then we can't afford to keep submarines around either. Decisions decisions.

Poor Lommy has trouble with her gut. Apart from that, she doesn't look overly evil if not particularly innocent either.

I'm curious about Menel and his vote for G55. He doesn't comment on the Inzil episode in any way but votes for her because

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.

I don't know, I just would've sort of expected the person whom some are ready to declare a known innocent to say something. If he's innocent and thinks Inzil dreamed of him, it's not plausible to suspect G55 because of Inzil's comments... but then, he voted for her because of her own behaviour. I don't know if my ramblings make any sense.

Legate rubs me in the wrong way based solely on a gut feeling. It's not like he looked suspicious, and I'd like to think he's innocent, but there's something off about him that makes me wary. I can't really specify and I don't know if it's anything, but I'll be keeping an eye on him and will try to elaborate later.

Then there's Shasta who's misinterpreted things G55 and I have said, but I don't think he looks very wolfish for it.

And Nerwen who's been slipping under my radar and is automatically suspicious because of that because nothing is sneakier than Nerwen as a wolf.

Originally Posted by G55

If he did not, why are people talking about it? An ordo could look at it and see that he voted for me before he was killed. Even if he was not the seer - just see my reply to Legate.

Because he was the seer. But regardless of whether you're a wolf or not, the pack couldn't have known he was the seer. If the wolves had wanted to frame someone, they would've picked a kill that had more pronounced negative opinions than Inzil had.

I might be willing to try our luck with lynching G55... but I'm also aware she'd be a splendid staged lynch for the wolves if she's innocent. I'm going to bed pretty soon and will be back to vote and, hopefully, to post more in the morning.

[satansaloser2005]

So a cobbler then, I guess? Or not? In any case, I need to rest. While I'm unconscious, I would love for others to discuss Agan. I had hoped to do more than the overall "she's too happy to be good" comment from earlier, but alas, time did not permit it.

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

And now I must sleep. Agan and Gal are my main two lynch choices toDay. Given that I don't believe Gal is aligned with Nog, I do not want to lynch him, as previously stated, and Menel is just too amusing to kill toDay.

Good night, everyone. I will return a bit before DL to mash my phone's buttons again.


EDIT: At least I think I mentioned the Nog/Gal thing. If not, pretend I didn't accidentally delete it from my earlier post and move on. I don't think they're in a pack. That is all. Sleep now....

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so I have re-read Zil's posts and it indeed seems as if, if he dreamt of anybody at all, it was most likely Menel. Of the living people he interacted with/mentioned in some way that it gives merit, apart from him, he mentions G55 negatively, but only once (in relation to his vote), and Kath with sort of nothing-this-way-or-another-seeming statement.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I doubt that framing me in particular was the main motivation, but it's the easiest to do. You just have to look at the tally to suspect me already. Inzil was the first to vote me. But even so, voting me was probably a bonus to it - once again, I'm not that special that the wolves want to frame me that badly. They just want to frame an innocent. And Inzil very conveniently suspected me, ie an innocent. He's the person A from the above scenario.

Well that's again the same thing, it does not really convince me. And so once again, now - are you now saying that you are not so special that the WWs want to frame you, or are you saying that the WWs wanted to frame you, and therefore they attacked Inzil? (Where I still do not entirely perceive the logic.) Now I am really confused as to what you are saying...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

There's also the possibility, even if slight, that the cobbler thwarted Inzil's dream on night 1. Unless I'm totally utterly mistaken, she was allowed to try her luck at the very beginning.

That of course cannot be ruled out, but then again I wonder if even in such a case, the Seer might not have felt obliged to post a hint of "I had no dream toNight". But okay, maybe that's nonsense, because the one person who could decipher it more easily would be the cobbler, and that's probably not the person the Seer would want to know about his identity (even though he couldn't be targeted again by the cobbler, still, the cobbler would probably want to contact the Wolves, and tell them about who the Seer was, if he/she knew the identity of the Seer).

EDIT: x-ed with two votes! and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

After rereading Zil's posts I would say it's more likely he dreamt Menel than Gal, and also possible that he dreamt someone else entirely, but didn't speak a word. (For example the person hadn't said anything he could comment on before he had to vote and leave.) One thing that speaks in Menel-dream's favour is that he was the first person Zil mentioned.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well that's again the same thing, it does not really convince me. And so once again, now - are you now saying that you are not so special that the WWs want to frame you, or are you saying that the WWs wanted to frame you, and therefore they attacked Inzil? (Where I still do not entirely perceive the logic.) Now I am really confused as to what you are saying...

Well, I'm not here to convince you about something I can only speculate about. I can only explain myself better to make you understand my point, but not to convince you. Unless you're a wolf, then you know as much as I do about what really went on in their minds last Night.

I was saying that wolves like to kill people that lead the village down a false trail to an innocent - any innocent (not specifically me because I'm me, just any innocent that suits them best). Other factors play a role as well, but let's not overcomplicate it. In this case, this "any innocent" happens to be me. So yes, they framed me, but not to frame me specifically, just to frame an innocent.

Is this clearer?

[Galadriel55]

If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one

Well, I think that is not a very good point, to be honest.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.

Whereas this is, yes, I have already been talking about that, too...

EDIT: x-ed since the end of the page

[Galadriel55]

I know I'm suspicious, since I usually gather suspicion faster than a bucket gathers rainwater during a storm. There's really no way I would be able to convince you that I'm an innocent, in any way other than being toDay's lynch. But I want you to have this in mind: the wolves will benefit more from my lynch than the innocents.

If I'm lynched, the wolves will be having a nice party this Night, since their ploy worked, and because of how little this would benefit the villagers. If, by some miraculous chance, I am not lynched, then I'm likely to be lynched the next Day so no big deal. And anyways, I'm taking the attention off them.

Meanwhile, from the innocents' side: if I'm lynched, my death won't give you anything. I am not a wolf, hence all the possibilities you've come up with for yesterDay's vote tally will fly to pieces; as I said, there were two innocent bandwagons - and try to find who's the wolf in that. I wish you luck. You can't get information from my death, only a loss of an extra person in the innocent's count. You can't even judge who's innocent based on how hard they pushed my lynch, since I am genuinely suspicious and more innocents are likely to vote me than wolves.

The only thing you could possibly gain from my death is some clarity in the village. At least you won't waste your time on me and focus on the wolves - something I've been trying to make you do for the past half a Day, but the talk keeps returning to me. I guess it's a futile task to try and stop you from suspecting me while I'm still around. And I can't convince you not to lynch me, since, well, the suspicion and attention will not stop until I'm dead. Someone will always say "we should have lynched her".



Well, that's that. Think.

Edit: xed with Legate and Agan

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

A savage blow would have been much better than a savage blow, a really savage blow.

I still don't get it. *headdesk* What's wrong with mourning the Seer and saying that it is a great loss for the village?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, sorry G55, I lied. I'm not the seer.

No way!

Originally Posted by Agan

To be honest, he did not leave a trail in your direction.

If he did not, why are people talking about it? An ordo could look at it and see that he voted for me before he was killed. Even if he was not the seer - just see my reply to Legate.

Originally Posted by Agan

Ps. I love blood.

Who would have though so?




NOGALYSIS

(smileys removed)

First post does not yield anything.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

That sounds like Nog.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now where is your commitment with 40 posts on D1? Or anyone elses'?

Just asking before you decide to make the lack of committed cases reason to vote... I mean you don't have twelve votes but just one...

PS. I'm going to sleep as well pretty soon, but will still participate and vote later...

The middle part is a bit confusing... Nog is saying that Pitch's reasoning is not the best because it applies to everyone?

And this is also the post-with-the-smiley-that-looks-weird-to-me.

#49- Whoa! That's overreacting, if you ask me.

I don't think Pitch used the 40 posts to "partially justify his vote", as Nog says. Pitch explained clearly why he's voting Nog: because of not committing to a suspicion.

Then, his long speech where he talks about "trying out something" doesn't make much sense either. This sounds more like a guilty Nog, because that's usually when he doesn't sound logical to me.

#71 - thoughts on voting. Says will not vote Menel. Thinks either I or Pitch could be wolves, but probably not both.

#74 - the reply to Menel. See my post from before for comments:

Originally Posted by G55

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

#75 - debates between lynching me (for my turns) or Pitch (for forced vote reasons)

#77 - elaborates on his suspicion on Pitch

#80 -

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

Interesting, interesting. Not sure what to make of this. On one hand, he does have a point, but on the other, he's hanging back himself - waiting for the others to go first? But the reasons for him hanging back cannot be the ones he lists, because neither me nor Pitch are wolves. If he's a wolf, though, he'd probably want to take the wagon that would make him look better. If he's an innocent, why on earth was he hanging back himself?

#83 - votes Pitch.

#85 - tells Legate he didn't vote me because I usually get lynched early because I'm always "like that". Which I guess is true. But then what was the point of saying several times that I am suspicious, he could vote for me, etc., to then say something similar to what he said about Menel - I get lynched early too often for these reasons?

DAY 2

#81, 90 - looks at Zil. Thinks he could have dream Menel.

#92 - gives support for Menel's dream to be either Menel or me. The support is kinda... stretchy, though. Especially on me being a wolf, I daresay.

#93 - speculates on the possibilities of "if G55 is a wolf". His thoughts here are based on logical argument. Considers "testing that 'if'".



Conclusion: Nog doesn't sit right with me. Definitely someone I would consider voting. I would expect Nog to be more logical in the places I've mentioned, more decisive in his suspicions (well, do you or don't you?), and more calm when he is suspected. He seemed very eager to avoid votes (sorry for the bad phrasing), with that smile to Pitch right before the vote when what he says sounds like something of a completely opposite mood, and then he tried to ridicule Pitch's reasoning, which gives the impression of "I don't want you to think he's right -- Badly!". He sounds kinda desperate in there, and illogical. I don't like that.

So yeah, I'd be very wary of Noggins.


Edit: xed since 110 - oi, that's a lot of posts