WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[satansaloser2005]

All of this is being typed as I am bombarded by a dude on either side of me loudly reading books at me, so please forgive any fragmented thoughts. I’m trying.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

Um, so....someone else has mentioned this, right? I could see “totality of circumstance” as some sort of bizarre seer hint (or not so bizarre, I suppose) that he thinks Nog is acting suspicious, but knows he is not guilty. Obviously Nog could still be the cobbler, or he could have dreamed Gal as a wolf instead (see below), or this could not even be a thing, but I feel the need to bring it up because....totality of circumstance just seems like a strange phrase to me.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Should I take it then that G55 or Pitch is a wolf and the mates are now hanging around not willing to take side hoping they will not be forced to make a move (to try and avoid a lynch of their mate if s/he's eventually lynched, or not willing to cast the first stone as there is still hope someone else will be lynched - but would hjoin the wagon if the case is lost?)?

I speak of this below, but I know of few players who would willingly help Fenris one of their own, especially given that Gal wasn’t too far in the lead yesterDay when votes started rolling in. (And yes, this does make me look far from the best, but it’s my opinion, and I don’t fear expressing it, because it’s true, so nyah.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

From the Pitch-lynchers Sally's and my votes stand up, clearly, whereas G55's and Agan's votes are more safe. So if someone tried to save a wolf-G55, it most probably would be Sally or me (which I am not).

It would in fact make us (Nog and myself) look quite bad, but as I know Galadriel and I are not packmates, there’s nothing I can do about it. But yeah, my vote was in a very suspicious place. Meh. It happens.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

If you're debating about Inzil's dream or fellow wolves saving me yesterDay, think of this:

-knowing that I am likely to go down in the first couple Days - which he does, would Inzil have picked me as his N1 dream? He's not stupid; he knows I am a waste of dream unless I actually survive Day 1 and am suspicious enough to merit one.

-knowing that I wouldn't last anyways, and they could be placed under suspicion for that, would the mates risk saving me? It would be better for them to bus me, unless they are darned nice mates.

You do in fact have a good point about the dreams; I would not expect Dun to dream you on the first Night. However, I’m not basing my ‘what the flip are you doing, woman?’ off of potential seer dreams, but off your actions. And if you have a pack that thought they could get away with it, then yes, I think it would be beneficial for them to try to derail a Fenrissing.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.

This is all that I think needs to be said about Agan. She mocks our pain and then she tries to cure it....by ending the pain or us though? Also, note that she’s referring to the cobbler as a she again. Could someone remind me: does she always do that, or is it only an occasional thing? I simply don’t have time to look toDay, for which I apologize. :/




I am confused, and haven’t really made up my mind about most things, but I believe I can section off at least a few people.....


Will lynch:
Gal
Agan



Will not lynch:
Nog
Menel (presently, anyway, as I wish to keep him around)



I am currently undecided on everyone else. I’ll probably be voting shortly before work again, though I hope I can be more active later in the evening (read, when I get home tonight).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nog

WHAT?

Well, well. On the face of it, this looks like the very same slip that Aganwolf made in Wilwa's fairytale game years ago. Anyone remember that? (I bet Agan does. )

Not quite sure, though– I can sort of see what she might have been trying to say there, but it's very convoluted.

[Galadriel55]

You know what? For the greater good.


++G55


Although it is my problem, it is not my fault that the village as a whole is being dumb toDay. At least this way it will be more productive.

Seriously, I was shaking with rage when I left the computer, and I have no desire to go through it again. Trying to convince you is like walking through quicksand: the more you try, the less you accomplish. So you'd be more efficient with your analyses and attention and whatnot if you vote me and stop talking about me, and start concentrating on other people. If I try to resist my lynch I'll only waste everyone's time and energy that could be spent on looking for wolves. You've discussed me long enough. Just vote and get on to searching for real wolves. If anyone tries to bring the conversation to my posts again, he or she should be tested carefully for being wolves who want to keep attention off themselves.

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You know what? For the greater good.


++G55


Although it is my problem, it is not my fault that the village as a whole is being dumb toDay. At least this way it will be more productive.

Seriously, I was shaking with rage when I left the computer, and I have no desire to go through it again. Trying to convince you is like walking through quicksand: the more you try, the less you accomplish. So you'd be more efficient with your analyses and attention and whatnot if you vote me and stop talking about me, and start concentrating on other people. If I try to resist my lynch I'll only waste everyone's time and energy that could be spent on looking for wolves. You've discussed me long enough. Just vote and get on to searching for real wolves. If anyone tries to bring the conversation to my posts again, he or she should be tested carefully for being wolves who want to keep attention off themselves.

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

I have 3/11 votes, unless I missed someone's. If you have a better plan you can try to convince the others - it's up to you. I suggest you rid the village of a suspicious innocent and clear the air for wolf lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Reading through the day thus far, this is the first thing that caught my eye:

Originally Posted by Sally

And that's an interesting choice of words....

- with nothing else, no follow-up, or anything. Now, granted, Sally tends to have a sense of the dramatic, but to me this screams "Hey, someone else pick this up and turn it into a real suspicion!"

...Which Glirdan ends up doing, here.
[quote=Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

And yet, as much as it stood out, the comment itself strikes me as a very common G55 thing to say, having seen her and many other innocents (myself included) lynched early in the game due to the same problem: wording. And yet, in such a game, where we cannot read each others emotions, faces and body language, it is the only the factual thing we have to go on. But it still stands out to me as a very innocent G55 thing to do.

Her voting placement (which I apologize for my lack of yesterDay) along with that of Noggins looks rather bad on both of them.[/quote]
Now I can't decide if this is just typical Glirdan and my penchant for always finding him suspicious, but I don't really like this post. It's basically saying "Yeah, that's suspicious... and yet it might just be typical G55... and yet it still looks bad... but maybe not... but this other thing still makes her (and Nog) look bad." And then he exits, stage left. It's just a very wishy-washy, flip-floppy thing to say, and ends up telling us nothing about what he actually thinks, which I find very convoluted and odd.

Note: Lommy also sort of picks it up, in #109. Given that I can't really remember anything else she's said this game thus far, that's going to raise her on my suspicion list a bit.

Originally Posted by G55

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

You did, and I'm not really sure what I was thinking when I wrote that. My apologies. Best guess - your usage of "he" and "his" in the previous sentence made me think you were talking about Nog instead of Pitch, but either way, you're absolutely right, and I'm silly.

Originally Posted by Kath

Looks like there's some suspicion of Shasta for acting as though he is trying to get others to bandwagon Inzil.

I think I know which bit you're talking about here. I asked that question in order to point out that some people were having double-standards in relation to Menel being Captain Obvious. It had nothing to do with trying to get votes for Inzil - we were actually agreeing for once!

Originally Posted by Legate

This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.

Eh. I don't know about that. It doesn't bode well for the village to focus on just one person per day - which G55 has actually been saying quite a bit. It makes sense to me that she'd try to start discussion on someone else. Especially because a lot (a lot) of her later posts definitely remind me of frustrated innocent Brinniel.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, then, as Pitch is innocent ... G55 is more likely to be a wolf based on what I said earlier. Hopefully that now makes a bit more sense.

Wait a second...

Originally Posted by Kath

If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.

Originally Posted by Kath

This sentence makes me less suspicious of Pitch as it might suggest Inzil had dreamed of Pitch and therefore his lead wouldn't be a negative one. However, as an innocent doesn't actually 'know' anything I think this would be a misleading clue for the Seer to lead if he had dreamed of Pitch.

Originally Posted by Kath

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

Quotes in their entirety, as I'm trying to avoid "misquoting", but it looks to me like you were considering that Pitch and G55 were wolves together (before you realized Pitch was dead). But now that you've realized Pitch was innocent, G55 is still likely to be a wolf? Girl can't win with you, huh, Kath. I'm pretty confused by this, honestly.

Originally Posted by Menel

I'm not going to be around much today as I have a lot of real life things to do.

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.

No mention of Nog here, even though his was the vote that made Pitch hit four votes (by crossing with Sally, apparently.) Interesting.

Originally Posted by Lommy

After rereading Zil's posts I would say it's more likely he dreamt Menel than Gal, and also possible that he dreamt someone else entirely, but didn't speak a word. (For example the person hadn't said anything he could comment on before he had to vote and leave.) One thing that speaks in Menel-dream's favour is that he was the first person Zil mentioned.

The fact that Lommy's first post of the day was evidencing more suspicion of G55, combined with the timing of this post (it comes right after Legate at #115, who also puts in support for Inzil having dreamt Menel), makes me raise my eyebrows some more. Classic Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf beginning to wonder if a G55-lynch is as much a lock as it first seemed to be?

Originally Posted by G55

Interesting, interesting. Not sure what to make of this. On one hand, he does have a point, but on the other, he's hanging back himself - waiting for the others to go first? But the reasons for him hanging back cannot be the ones he lists, because neither me nor Pitch are wolves. If he's a wolf, though, he'd probably want to take the wagon that would make him look better. If he's an innocent, why on earth was he hanging back himself?

I'm not certain this is an applicable point. Nog almost always holds his vote as long as he can, because of all the new developments that can happen at the end of the day.

Originally Posted by Sally

In the interest of not having another messy lynch, I think I'll keep Galadriel around for another Day. Among other things, it's fun to watch her stew.

First you poke some suspicion at G55 in a subtle way, and now you want to keep her around?

Nog at #129 - I slipped up during my very first WW game that way. G55 isn't exactly a newbie at this, though... agh. I don't really know what to think about that. I was kind of leaning toward her being a frustrated innocent, but it's possible that she was frustrated into making a slip of that caliber as a wolf, too. Hmmm.

Originally Posted by Sally

Holy crap. And then I read the last few posts by the little gal and I'm wondering why we haven't killed her already. Or possibly sent her to an asylum. Either way, redacted, because....wow.

Sallywolf giving it up as a lost cause? If we do lynch G55 and she's a wolf, I think I'd look rather hard at the cupcake over here.

G55's #143 takes the frustrated innocent vibe up to eleven - it's like she's Brinniel, combined with Rikae, with a little bit of Morsul thrown in.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Making a list, and I'd like to note - it could easily be possible that Inzil dreamt of an innocent Menel and that G55 is a wolf. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Now then.

Green:
No one. (Well, me, obviously. )

Yellow:
Menel. I myself am also leaning toward a probable Day 1 dream of Menel as innocent, and he hasn't otherwise made my hackles rise.
Nerwen. The splendid moon herself is behaving in her standard fashion, basically - I haven't seen much one way or the other.
Legate. Lommy seemingly parroting him makes me feel better about him, and he's been mostly focusing on G55 and Nogrod today, which I can't really blame him for, considering. No immediate red flags.
Kath. Goes here for now. I'd like to hear her response to my comment from earlier, about how G55 seems to be wolvish no matter what Pitch was.
Agan. Completely drawing a blank here. No flippin' idea. Person who is most under my reindeer at the moment.


Orange:
Lommy. She hasn't said much, understandably, but what she has said has set off some alarm bells. Her position on G55 looks like she initially was going to bandwagon, but decided not to, due in part to Legate and others supporting a dream of Menel.
Glirdan. Obviously hasn't been here much. I mentioned already why I didn't like his one post today thus far - it picked up Sally's nudged-through suspicion and ran with it... but not really... but still did. Very wishy-washy, and lets him go either way on the G55-wagon virtually consequence-free.
Sally. Giving the G55-wagon subtle pushes here and there, then getting off, then getting back on after the "slip". May change opinion should G55 die and be found innocent.
Nog. Probably the most conditional person in this category. I'm going to have to make myself go through his posts in detail, because he's always one of the hardest people for me to get a read on. He's really only here right now because of his late vote for Pitch yesterday. I'd rather not vote him without a clearer picture.

Red:
G55. I was leaning towards her being a frustrated innocent until the possible slip that Nog pointed out. And I can still see that being the case, but there's also a case to be made for her being a wolf. I think we basically have to know what she is at this point.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Will lynch:
Gal
Agan



Will not lynch:
Nog
Menel (presently, anyway, as I wish to keep him around)



I am currently undecided on everyone else.

This kind of strengthens my suspicion G55 and Sally are in cahoots (and that Sally actually tried to save her late on D1).

She seemed happy enough to mirror my "open attitude" when I said my own vote looks bad, and as no one seemed to cling on it, she decided to make a similar kind of post herself about her voting.

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

But the most vicious thing - and the one that kind of makes me reaallly suspect Sally is that I find myself from her really short list of "will not lynch".

The other being Menel... so as to keep up the appearace (?) that she thinks Menel was actually the seer dream of Zil (so G55 is not a dreamt wolf). Nice. But why me then? Of all people why does she think I'm the other one she doesn't want to lynch? Being too close to truth and willing to appease, make me feel good? Sometimes stretching the "right way" means stretching the "wrong way".

So unless she comes up with more convincing reasons why she thinks I'm innocent than trying to rub me the right way and thus possibly not suspect her any more, I'm going to suspect her.

[Nogrod]

Sudden and unwarranted trust is one of the easiest way to track evil...

(Werewolf Handbook, Chapter 5 "Catching a werewolf", 2:2 "Signs to be weary of")