WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You know what? For the greater good.


++G55


Although it is my problem, it is not my fault that the village as a whole is being dumb toDay. At least this way it will be more productive.

Seriously, I was shaking with rage when I left the computer, and I have no desire to go through it again. Trying to convince you is like walking through quicksand: the more you try, the less you accomplish. So you'd be more efficient with your analyses and attention and whatnot if you vote me and stop talking about me, and start concentrating on other people. If I try to resist my lynch I'll only waste everyone's time and energy that could be spent on looking for wolves. You've discussed me long enough. Just vote and get on to searching for real wolves. If anyone tries to bring the conversation to my posts again, he or she should be tested carefully for being wolves who want to keep attention off themselves.

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

I have 3/11 votes, unless I missed someone's. If you have a better plan you can try to convince the others - it's up to you. I suggest you rid the village of a suspicious innocent and clear the air for wolf lynch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Reading through the day thus far, this is the first thing that caught my eye:

Originally Posted by Sally

And that's an interesting choice of words....

- with nothing else, no follow-up, or anything. Now, granted, Sally tends to have a sense of the dramatic, but to me this screams "Hey, someone else pick this up and turn it into a real suspicion!"

...Which Glirdan ends up doing, here.
[quote=Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

And yet, as much as it stood out, the comment itself strikes me as a very common G55 thing to say, having seen her and many other innocents (myself included) lynched early in the game due to the same problem: wording. And yet, in such a game, where we cannot read each others emotions, faces and body language, it is the only the factual thing we have to go on. But it still stands out to me as a very innocent G55 thing to do.

Her voting placement (which I apologize for my lack of yesterDay) along with that of Noggins looks rather bad on both of them.[/quote]
Now I can't decide if this is just typical Glirdan and my penchant for always finding him suspicious, but I don't really like this post. It's basically saying "Yeah, that's suspicious... and yet it might just be typical G55... and yet it still looks bad... but maybe not... but this other thing still makes her (and Nog) look bad." And then he exits, stage left. It's just a very wishy-washy, flip-floppy thing to say, and ends up telling us nothing about what he actually thinks, which I find very convoluted and odd.

Note: Lommy also sort of picks it up, in #109. Given that I can't really remember anything else she's said this game thus far, that's going to raise her on my suspicion list a bit.

Originally Posted by G55

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

You did, and I'm not really sure what I was thinking when I wrote that. My apologies. Best guess - your usage of "he" and "his" in the previous sentence made me think you were talking about Nog instead of Pitch, but either way, you're absolutely right, and I'm silly.

Originally Posted by Kath

Looks like there's some suspicion of Shasta for acting as though he is trying to get others to bandwagon Inzil.

I think I know which bit you're talking about here. I asked that question in order to point out that some people were having double-standards in relation to Menel being Captain Obvious. It had nothing to do with trying to get votes for Inzil - we were actually agreeing for once!

Originally Posted by Legate

This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.

Eh. I don't know about that. It doesn't bode well for the village to focus on just one person per day - which G55 has actually been saying quite a bit. It makes sense to me that she'd try to start discussion on someone else. Especially because a lot (a lot) of her later posts definitely remind me of frustrated innocent Brinniel.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, then, as Pitch is innocent ... G55 is more likely to be a wolf based on what I said earlier. Hopefully that now makes a bit more sense.

Wait a second...

Originally Posted by Kath

If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.

Originally Posted by Kath

This sentence makes me less suspicious of Pitch as it might suggest Inzil had dreamed of Pitch and therefore his lead wouldn't be a negative one. However, as an innocent doesn't actually 'know' anything I think this would be a misleading clue for the Seer to lead if he had dreamed of Pitch.

Originally Posted by Kath

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

Quotes in their entirety, as I'm trying to avoid "misquoting", but it looks to me like you were considering that Pitch and G55 were wolves together (before you realized Pitch was dead). But now that you've realized Pitch was innocent, G55 is still likely to be a wolf? Girl can't win with you, huh, Kath. I'm pretty confused by this, honestly.

Originally Posted by Menel

I'm not going to be around much today as I have a lot of real life things to do.

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.

No mention of Nog here, even though his was the vote that made Pitch hit four votes (by crossing with Sally, apparently.) Interesting.

Originally Posted by Lommy

After rereading Zil's posts I would say it's more likely he dreamt Menel than Gal, and also possible that he dreamt someone else entirely, but didn't speak a word. (For example the person hadn't said anything he could comment on before he had to vote and leave.) One thing that speaks in Menel-dream's favour is that he was the first person Zil mentioned.

The fact that Lommy's first post of the day was evidencing more suspicion of G55, combined with the timing of this post (it comes right after Legate at #115, who also puts in support for Inzil having dreamt Menel), makes me raise my eyebrows some more. Classic Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf beginning to wonder if a G55-lynch is as much a lock as it first seemed to be?

Originally Posted by G55

Interesting, interesting. Not sure what to make of this. On one hand, he does have a point, but on the other, he's hanging back himself - waiting for the others to go first? But the reasons for him hanging back cannot be the ones he lists, because neither me nor Pitch are wolves. If he's a wolf, though, he'd probably want to take the wagon that would make him look better. If he's an innocent, why on earth was he hanging back himself?

I'm not certain this is an applicable point. Nog almost always holds his vote as long as he can, because of all the new developments that can happen at the end of the day.

Originally Posted by Sally

In the interest of not having another messy lynch, I think I'll keep Galadriel around for another Day. Among other things, it's fun to watch her stew.

First you poke some suspicion at G55 in a subtle way, and now you want to keep her around?

Nog at #129 - I slipped up during my very first WW game that way. G55 isn't exactly a newbie at this, though... agh. I don't really know what to think about that. I was kind of leaning toward her being a frustrated innocent, but it's possible that she was frustrated into making a slip of that caliber as a wolf, too. Hmmm.

Originally Posted by Sally

Holy crap. And then I read the last few posts by the little gal and I'm wondering why we haven't killed her already. Or possibly sent her to an asylum. Either way, redacted, because....wow.

Sallywolf giving it up as a lost cause? If we do lynch G55 and she's a wolf, I think I'd look rather hard at the cupcake over here.

G55's #143 takes the frustrated innocent vibe up to eleven - it's like she's Brinniel, combined with Rikae, with a little bit of Morsul thrown in.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Making a list, and I'd like to note - it could easily be possible that Inzil dreamt of an innocent Menel and that G55 is a wolf. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Now then.

Green:
No one. (Well, me, obviously. )

Yellow:
Menel. I myself am also leaning toward a probable Day 1 dream of Menel as innocent, and he hasn't otherwise made my hackles rise.
Nerwen. The splendid moon herself is behaving in her standard fashion, basically - I haven't seen much one way or the other.
Legate. Lommy seemingly parroting him makes me feel better about him, and he's been mostly focusing on G55 and Nogrod today, which I can't really blame him for, considering. No immediate red flags.
Kath. Goes here for now. I'd like to hear her response to my comment from earlier, about how G55 seems to be wolvish no matter what Pitch was.
Agan. Completely drawing a blank here. No flippin' idea. Person who is most under my reindeer at the moment.


Orange:
Lommy. She hasn't said much, understandably, but what she has said has set off some alarm bells. Her position on G55 looks like she initially was going to bandwagon, but decided not to, due in part to Legate and others supporting a dream of Menel.
Glirdan. Obviously hasn't been here much. I mentioned already why I didn't like his one post today thus far - it picked up Sally's nudged-through suspicion and ran with it... but not really... but still did. Very wishy-washy, and lets him go either way on the G55-wagon virtually consequence-free.
Sally. Giving the G55-wagon subtle pushes here and there, then getting off, then getting back on after the "slip". May change opinion should G55 die and be found innocent.
Nog. Probably the most conditional person in this category. I'm going to have to make myself go through his posts in detail, because he's always one of the hardest people for me to get a read on. He's really only here right now because of his late vote for Pitch yesterday. I'd rather not vote him without a clearer picture.

Red:
G55. I was leaning towards her being a frustrated innocent until the possible slip that Nog pointed out. And I can still see that being the case, but there's also a case to be made for her being a wolf. I think we basically have to know what she is at this point.

[Aganzir]

Sorry guys, I suck. I slept in.

++sally

I think G55 has begun to look more like a very frustrated innocent. A wolf would either give it up as hopeless or go down fighting, but Gal takes the middle path.

Whereas sally is the one that looks the most evil to me at the moment. She seems detached (not just in a "guys are reading books to me" way) yet oddly precise: the way she acknowledged several times that G55's furriness would make her and Nog look bad doesn't sit right with me. And then there was the "discuss if Agan might be the cobbler" statement with no real reasons except that I'm having too much fun, which she nicked from Lommy, who is a prune. Sally, how can I be the cobbler for saying it's a she when I wasn't the seer (who was a she as well) either? For me, everyone is female unless proven otherwise.

I need to rush now. Sorry for inactivity.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

Mhh you really make it sound like you're explaining what really happened from the inside point of view. Like, you decided if she's suspected, Sally tries to defend her and you attack her. I don't know why on earth you guys would decide something like that.

Originally Posted by Sally

So a cobbler then, I guess? Or not? In any case, I need to rest. While I'm unconscious, I would love for others to discuss Agan. I had hoped to do more than the overall "she's too happy to be good" comment from earlier, but alas, time did not permit it.

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

So you want to get rid of the cobbler not of the wolves? Huh.

Originally Posted by Shasta

The fact that Lommy's first post of the day was evidencing more suspicion of G55, combined with the timing of this post (it comes right after Legate at #115, who also puts in support for Inzil having dreamt Menel), makes me raise my eyebrows some more. Classic Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf beginning to wonder if a G55-lynch is as much a lock as it first seemed to be?

Why flip-flopping? I never said I thought Galadriel was the dream subject. That, however, doesn't make her look any more innocent.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Legate. Lommy seemingly parroting him makes me feel better about him,

Not parroting, just coming tot the same conclusion after reading the same evidence. You do that too and I bet you'll agree.

That being said, when thinking about my vote, I think Agan's lead might be the wise one. Galadriel is still fishy and it would be convenient to lynch her (before you jump at my choice of words: I mean that like she said, otherwise we will be discussing her all toMorrow, plus her role might tell us about some other people), but Sally is maybe even more suspicious. Besides, we need some competition.

[Thinlómien]

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This kind of strengthens my suspicion G55 and Sally are in cahoots (and that Sally actually tried to save her late on D1).

She seemed happy enough to mirror my "open attitude" when I said my own vote looks bad, and as no one seemed to cling on it, she decided to make a similar kind of post herself about her voting.

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

But the most vicious thing - and the one that kind of makes me reaallly suspect Sally is that I find myself from her really short list of "will not lynch".

The other being Menel... so as to keep up the appearace (?) that she thinks Menel was actually the seer dream of Zil (so G55 is not a dreamt wolf). Nice. But why me then? Of all people why does she think I'm the other one she doesn't want to lynch? Being too close to truth and willing to appease, make me feel good? Sometimes stretching the "right way" means stretching the "wrong way".

I would agree about the first couple of points. Saying "my vote looks suspicious, I know" is sort of a bad thing to do (though of course, let's not forget, it doesn't matter who said that first, but Nog is in the same position and he was doing the same). Not necessarily the use of your name on the short "will not lynch" list, because, what of it? However also, the Menel-befriending looks like something that a "programmed Wolf" might do.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You know what? For the greater good.

(...)

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

Okay, so now the question is whether a Galwolf would do this (or why). Of course if she is really desperate, then it might be a desperate attempt to save herself (and cause exactly what she is warning against - remaining around and distracting village further). I don't know about sally's proposal that G55 is a cobbler, because I don't think she has been acting cobblerishly or sort of making a mess on her own initiative. The frustration, in any case, sounds genuine, but there are these things in the past posts and behavior which still make me unsure.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

Exactly, that's perfect point. Completely ditto. Though, now given the situation, it certainly isn't going to be completely unambiguous case, whomever we lynch. Speaking of that, I could even still go for Nog, if we wanted to have more colorful selection (insert half-funny smiley here, but speaking of that, seriously I am still probably wary the most about Nog, despite what has been the main focus toDay).

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

We talked that yesterDay, and yes, I think the Cobbler is as dangerous as the WWs in this game (although now the Seer is dead... still, given the numbers, the Cob can vote along the WWs and whatnot, so not really). However, what - so you originally wondered if G55 is a cobbler, now you are asking what to do with the Cobbler? So did you think she was one or not?

Originally Posted by sally

EDIT: At least I think I mentioned the Nog/Gal thing. If not, pretend I didn't accidentally delete it from my earlier post and move on. I don't think they're in a pack. That is all. Sleep now....

Well this is actually pretty important, given that Nog is somebody who is practically in the same "voting situation" as you from yesterDay. Not sure if I remember you saying that indeed, so: why? Why are they not a pack? Only because you are in the same situation? That sounds eyebrow-raising indeed.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Whereas sally is the one that looks the most evil to me at the moment. She seems detached (not just in a "guys are reading books to me" way) yet oddly precise: the way she acknowledged several times that G55's furriness would make her and Nog look bad doesn't sit right with me. And then there was the "discuss if Agan might be the cobbler" statement with no real reasons except that I'm having too much fun, which she nicked from Lommy, who is a prune. Sally, how can I be the cobbler for saying it's a she when I wasn't the seer (who was a she as well) either? For me, everyone is female unless proven otherwise.

There is point to this in that Sally emerges sort of out of nowhere (out of inactivity) and starts throwing some ideas about. Granted, some new ideas too, for that matter - like that of Agan acting weirdly, which, thinking of it, has some merit. Agan reacts with voting her... (But this "she" thing is really getting old, I think.) Sally seems not to have noticed Agan's use of "she" (nor how it was discussed yesterDay), but Agan's reaction seems just sort of stubborn to me. We have heard it already a couple of times. Aside from that, not aware of sally calling Agan a cobbler, I thought it was Gal she called one, in reaction to her posts and self-vote?

One last thing - I am a bit worried about Lommy's vote coming immediately after Agan's, sort of jumping on the bandwaggon. I don't have any actual problems with Lommy's behavior today in general (there isn't the harshness anymore, so it probably was just lack of sleep), but I am just thinking whether this sudden turn away from G55 might not be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf. (Though again, Lommy was suspecting G55 before during the day, so unless she'd have suddenly decided that there is a chance to form some counter-effort and lynch sally instead, when there was some suspicion voiced about her... It's more like the swiftness it came with, a bit out of nowhere, just following the previous remarks of some people suspecting her and Agan voting.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so Glirdan, in fact, did not say anything almost at all, basically only one of his posts being somewhat relevant, and that mentioning G55 in totally ambiguous way and also Nog in slightly defensive way, but that's it. Basically a non-appearing Cobbler.

Lommy, apart from suspecting G55, was listing also Nog and Sally as her suspects, in fact listing Nog and G55 as (possibly!) even more suspicious than Sally, however she decided to vote the latter. Maybe quoting directly:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

In her list earlier, she lists also Agan there (whom she also had voted originally on Day 1) - she does not list sally back then yet:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Suspiciousish

Glirdan - mild bad vibes.

Galadriel - pretty fishy. But she's totally right about herself taking all the attention and that being very harmful if she's not a wolf herself.

Nogrod - awfully quick to throw Galadriel to the lynch block, which could make sense regardless of her role if he was a wolf himself. Just btw I didn't like Nerwen's "others, discuss this while I sit back and relax" comment, makes me suspect something fishy between Nerwie and Noggie actually.

Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.

Of other stuff, she mentioned Zil probably dreamed Menel, I have no idea how that could be relevant (at most I would say, if Menel was a Wolf and this was true, he wouldn't want to kill her. But it's really rather random). She also believed Kath innocent.

Summa summarum - the people she suspected are the ones I find rather suspicious too, so I wouldn't be too surprised about that the motive for her death might have been, apart from what I suggested above, simply that she was suspecting a Wolf, or even several Wolves. However that kind of reasoning has not been very common among Wolves lately, I think (or at least when I was last playing), and also, she certainly wasn't the only one who suspected those people. Again, if the reason was the opposite and the WWs wanted to frame somebody up, this is rather an extensive list, so not sure if that would work (if she suspected heavily just one person, fine, I could understand that). I have not been able to find anything that would point to her looking like a Ranger in her posts, which is a motive I would have expected from the WWs the most. Maybe the WWs just feared her being a sharp player and wanted to get rid of her, then. I would bet something between that, a Wolf on the list and/or the "no track in the voting list" idea I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't put that past Agan, for instance, to get rid of Lommy in such a manner (since she just briefly dropped suspecting her at that point, so there won't be immediate connection between them), of course we still have the full amount of Wolves, the whole pack needed a decisive motivation.

I shall be around, re-reading somehow, although I also have non-WW obligations. Hope more people show up to discuss.