WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

Mhh you really make it sound like you're explaining what really happened from the inside point of view. Like, you decided if she's suspected, Sally tries to defend her and you attack her. I don't know why on earth you guys would decide something like that.

Originally Posted by Sally

So a cobbler then, I guess? Or not? In any case, I need to rest. While I'm unconscious, I would love for others to discuss Agan. I had hoped to do more than the overall "she's too happy to be good" comment from earlier, but alas, time did not permit it.

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

So you want to get rid of the cobbler not of the wolves? Huh.

Originally Posted by Shasta

The fact that Lommy's first post of the day was evidencing more suspicion of G55, combined with the timing of this post (it comes right after Legate at #115, who also puts in support for Inzil having dreamt Menel), makes me raise my eyebrows some more. Classic Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf beginning to wonder if a G55-lynch is as much a lock as it first seemed to be?

Why flip-flopping? I never said I thought Galadriel was the dream subject. That, however, doesn't make her look any more innocent.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Legate. Lommy seemingly parroting him makes me feel better about him,

Not parroting, just coming tot the same conclusion after reading the same evidence. You do that too and I bet you'll agree.

That being said, when thinking about my vote, I think Agan's lead might be the wise one. Galadriel is still fishy and it would be convenient to lynch her (before you jump at my choice of words: I mean that like she said, otherwise we will be discussing her all toMorrow, plus her role might tell us about some other people), but Sally is maybe even more suspicious. Besides, we need some competition.

[Thinlómien]

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This kind of strengthens my suspicion G55 and Sally are in cahoots (and that Sally actually tried to save her late on D1).

She seemed happy enough to mirror my "open attitude" when I said my own vote looks bad, and as no one seemed to cling on it, she decided to make a similar kind of post herself about her voting.

Then her defence of G55 came in just after the odd slip G55 made - and now when some people started talking about it, she has made a 180 (which to be honest sounds more like they had discussed it last Night saying "if they get G, let's join the chorus but let's try to keep her alive if possible").

But the most vicious thing - and the one that kind of makes me reaallly suspect Sally is that I find myself from her really short list of "will not lynch".

The other being Menel... so as to keep up the appearace (?) that she thinks Menel was actually the seer dream of Zil (so G55 is not a dreamt wolf). Nice. But why me then? Of all people why does she think I'm the other one she doesn't want to lynch? Being too close to truth and willing to appease, make me feel good? Sometimes stretching the "right way" means stretching the "wrong way".

I would agree about the first couple of points. Saying "my vote looks suspicious, I know" is sort of a bad thing to do (though of course, let's not forget, it doesn't matter who said that first, but Nog is in the same position and he was doing the same). Not necessarily the use of your name on the short "will not lynch" list, because, what of it? However also, the Menel-befriending looks like something that a "programmed Wolf" might do.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You know what? For the greater good.

(...)

Just lynch me, cause if you won't this is going to repeat toMorrow and the Day after and etc for as long as I survive.

Take a look at Nog for me toMorrow, if you would.

Okay, so now the question is whether a Galwolf would do this (or why). Of course if she is really desperate, then it might be a desperate attempt to save herself (and cause exactly what she is warning against - remaining around and distracting village further). I don't know about sally's proposal that G55 is a cobbler, because I don't think she has been acting cobblerishly or sort of making a mess on her own initiative. The frustration, in any case, sounds genuine, but there are these things in the past posts and behavior which still make me unsure.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Believe me, Nog is fairly high on my list of wolf-suspects toDay. And there is some merit in what you say here– except, do you not realise that everyone voting the same person (i.e. you) will leave us exactly nothing to analyse toMorrow? Or that we can't afford to waste a lynch?

Exactly, that's perfect point. Completely ditto. Though, now given the situation, it certainly isn't going to be completely unambiguous case, whomever we lynch. Speaking of that, I could even still go for Nog, if we wanted to have more colorful selection (insert half-funny smiley here, but speaking of that, seriously I am still probably wary the most about Nog, despite what has been the main focus toDay).

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

We talked that yesterDay, and yes, I think the Cobbler is as dangerous as the WWs in this game (although now the Seer is dead... still, given the numbers, the Cob can vote along the WWs and whatnot, so not really). However, what - so you originally wondered if G55 is a cobbler, now you are asking what to do with the Cobbler? So did you think she was one or not?

Originally Posted by sally

EDIT: At least I think I mentioned the Nog/Gal thing. If not, pretend I didn't accidentally delete it from my earlier post and move on. I don't think they're in a pack. That is all. Sleep now....

Well this is actually pretty important, given that Nog is somebody who is practically in the same "voting situation" as you from yesterDay. Not sure if I remember you saying that indeed, so: why? Why are they not a pack? Only because you are in the same situation? That sounds eyebrow-raising indeed.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Whereas sally is the one that looks the most evil to me at the moment. She seems detached (not just in a "guys are reading books to me" way) yet oddly precise: the way she acknowledged several times that G55's furriness would make her and Nog look bad doesn't sit right with me. And then there was the "discuss if Agan might be the cobbler" statement with no real reasons except that I'm having too much fun, which she nicked from Lommy, who is a prune. Sally, how can I be the cobbler for saying it's a she when I wasn't the seer (who was a she as well) either? For me, everyone is female unless proven otherwise.

There is point to this in that Sally emerges sort of out of nowhere (out of inactivity) and starts throwing some ideas about. Granted, some new ideas too, for that matter - like that of Agan acting weirdly, which, thinking of it, has some merit. Agan reacts with voting her... (But this "she" thing is really getting old, I think.) Sally seems not to have noticed Agan's use of "she" (nor how it was discussed yesterDay), but Agan's reaction seems just sort of stubborn to me. We have heard it already a couple of times. Aside from that, not aware of sally calling Agan a cobbler, I thought it was Gal she called one, in reaction to her posts and self-vote?

One last thing - I am a bit worried about Lommy's vote coming immediately after Agan's, sort of jumping on the bandwaggon. I don't have any actual problems with Lommy's behavior today in general (there isn't the harshness anymore, so it probably was just lack of sleep), but I am just thinking whether this sudden turn away from G55 might not be actually another attempt to save a fellow Wolf. (Though again, Lommy was suspecting G55 before during the day, so unless she'd have suddenly decided that there is a chance to form some counter-effort and lynch sally instead, when there was some suspicion voiced about her... It's more like the swiftness it came with, a bit out of nowhere, just following the previous remarks of some people suspecting her and Agan voting.)

[Nogrod]

Hats off for G55 from exceptionally well put up show!

It clearly is working as I'm myself also under some doubt now on her role - even if I do remember and know that wolves can go into quite lengths defending themselves (Shasta's comparison with innocent Brinn & wolf-Rikae was quite fitting indeed )

Wolves have also voted themselves. I have done that once and I don't think I'm the only one. *coughRikaecough*

That said, nothing has changed my view on Sally (look my last posts about her) and I'm pretty much okay voting her as well.

And I really don't see much sense in totally turning the tables at this point (45 minutes before the DL) and putting in a new candidate from out of thin air even if I do think there have been some merit in certain questions concerning fex. Agan or Glirdan, or Lommy's sudden vote, or... but they open up quite different vistas - which we sure need to start exploring if we miss-lynch toDay.

[Kitanna]

Remember to vote if you didn't yesterday! I don't want to have to modfire anyone.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so it really makes no sense to start a third bandwagon, and I am not sure people would vote for that anyway,

++G55

P.S. I hope too many people aren't in risk of being modfired, or that they vote...

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, goodie. I've slept in and am now in a horrible rush. Please don't kill me (literally?) If I'm not able to get back again before deadline; I'll do my best to catch up, but....ugh. Mornings.

[Nerwen]

Regarding G55's "slip": people have asked whether any reasonably experienced wolf could make a slip like that– and I say the answer is "yes", under sufficient pressure.

Just to clarify: I'm not talking about her calling herself "Galwolf", which seems just her being hypothetical, but rather her strange reasoning there, which looks a lot like a wolf forgetting to separate her actual point-of-view and knowledge from that of the village. As As I said, I've seen the exact thing before.

If it is that. It could certainly also be a tangled attempt to explain the psychology of framing in terms of "what the wolves think the village thinks the wolves think". (Not that it really answers the questions she was being asked, mind you.)

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Nerwen]

We talked that yesterDay, and yes, I think the Cobbler is as dangerous as the WWs in this game (although now the Seer is dead... still, given the numbers, the Cob can vote along the WWs and whatnot, so not really). However, what - so you originally wondered if G55 is a cobbler, now you are asking what to do with the Cobbler? So did you think she was one or not?

It is an odd question actually– rather pointless– I mean even if this weren't a a sort of super-cobbler, it's been quite a long time since the days when Cobblers were seen as "not worth lynching".

It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.

EDIT:X'd since Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hats off for G55 from exceptionally well put up show!

(...)

That said, nothing has changed my view on Sally (look my last posts about her) and I'm pretty much okay voting her as well.

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence). But anyway, this "I can vote either way" really sort of pings my radar, it is a bit as if it was "I can vote G55 (especially if she's a fellow Wolf), but if I can avoid it, fine". Or, of course, if the three of them are WWs (well, in a way that would be really lucky, but we saw a Seer death on Night 1, anything is possible...), then he also does not have much choice. Hm, thinking of that, it really isn't likely that they would all be, just because of this - if they were, Nog wouldn't come up suddenly with suspicion about sally if he wanted to drive people away from his fellows.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.

Interesting point about Lommy, though again, I would sort of have expected the Cobbler being more "active" in making a mess. But, of course, maybe in this game the Cob can be a bit more careful, wishing to remain around to utilise the gift etc.? About sally, I think even *that* might be more plausible - with the randomness of some of her ideas. But that's exactly why I would like to see more from her, since now she just comes and starts talking some rather random things...

Okay, all in all, right now I feel like voting Nog, but then again, if G55 is going, then at least there will be peace of the questions and also, it might clarify the roles of sally and Nog on top of that (and either further support or lessen the reasons to my suspicion of Nog, and clarify something about sally's motives. It's also possible if e.g. she was a cobbler and it was not a Wolf-vote, or cobbler-vote or whatnot...).

EDIT: x-ed with some Nogs

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Good thing I stayed up so late (my time, anyway.) I just realized I never voted!

++G55

As I said, I feel like we pretty much have to know what she is - and if we don't lynch her, we'll likely be in the same boat tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence).

I feel everything but triumphalistic... and yes, I could vote either way as I'm not too sure about either but think that I have reason enough to wish to try either.

[Nogrod]

I see no reason to compete with how the vote is going... so

++ G55

[Nerwen]

Well, then, may as well be–

++G55

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
All she says is that Pitch's vote for Nogrod made her uneasy, thus she votes for him. Her vote puts Pitch in the lead, but since G55 was an ordo as well, it doesn't matter much - except if she's a wolf, it might point at Nog being one as well.

DAY 2
After Nog and Nerwen reach the conclusion Zil may have found G55 a wolf, sally jumps on it by picking on G55's choice of words (a really savage blow) when she laments Zil's death. She disappears for hours again, and then says she might still want to keep her around for a bit because it's fun to watch her stew - but this is obviously not the case because in her next post she wonders why we haven't killed her already. I think sally was one of the strongest pushers for a G55 lynch - granted, she wasn't as loud as some of the others, but she was pretty consistent in her suspicion. I may take the moral highground because I was about the only one who ended up not voting for her, but especially in hindsight it's a bit hard to see what eventually made G55 so suspicious to deserve all but two of the votes.

Now we reach sally's first major contribution. She quotes Inzil's vote for G55 and suggests his phrasing (totality of circumstance) seems like a possible seer hint. She mentions several times the suspicious placement of her Day 1 vote - at least if G55 had been a wolf. This gives me the weird feeling that we're supposed to interpret it as following: If G55 is a wolf, sally is suspicious. If G55 is not a wolf, sally is not suspicious. Yeah I know it may not be that simple and an innocent could well have said it, but it would be very convenient for a wolf, and it would explain why sally stressed it so.
Sally grants that it wouldn't have made sense for Inzil to dream of G55 on night 1 but proceeds to say she doesn't suspect G55 because of a possible dream but because of her actions. She clearly started off by basing her suspicion on Inzil's opinions, though.
Then she agrees with Lommy who said I'm enjoying myself too much to be innocent. She (who has played with me countless times before) asks if I always refer to the cobbler as a she. This is of course highly subjective but I think she should have known better (at the very least after it was explained on the thread), and her reasoning looks therefore like grasping at straws. She cites G55 and me as possible recipients for her vote, and says she won't vote for Menel (for being amusing) or Nog (because he and G55 are not in cahoots).
In a later post, she calls for others to discuss me. She has no real points against me though (apart from a too happy to be good attitude), but she apparently wishes to bring me under the spotlight.
Right after that, she asks:

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.

Later she votes for G55 (because I'm not an option) and says that cobbler or wolf, she's evil. I don't know at which point she came up with G55 being the cobbler, but what I noted is that she's awfully eager to get G55 lynched - no matter what, she has to die. And in my experience, it's usually wolves who show that kind of fervour when trying to get someone lynched. I remember several games of choosing a new main suspect each day and going strongly after them, one at a time, until we could secure the wolf victory. Sally's campaign against G55 reminds me of that.

DAY 3.
I may be biased by now, but this doesn't sit right with me:

Originally Posted by sally to Nog

If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.
Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.

Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.

And that's it. For Legate's information, my vote for sally yesterday wasn't retaliation - it was a reaction to a suspicion that made no sense and seemed both opportunistic and testing the ice for a possible cobbler reaction at the same time. It was a quick decision based on a gut feeling, but after an analysis, my logic supports my gut.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf.

Just in case it wasn't clear, my first post(s) weren't serious at all. I didn't really suspect you, and I said Nerwen was a wolf because she joked I'd do that after she defended me against something. That's quite a flimsy excuse for a vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so Glirdan, in fact, did not say anything almost at all, basically only one of his posts being somewhat relevant, and that mentioning G55 in totally ambiguous way and also Nog in slightly defensive way, but that's it. Basically a non-appearing Cobbler.

Lommy, apart from suspecting G55, was listing also Nog and Sally as her suspects, in fact listing Nog and G55 as (possibly!) even more suspicious than Sally, however she decided to vote the latter. Maybe quoting directly:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

++Sally

Apart from Gal (and possibly Nog), she's the most suspicious person around, and like I said, we need some competition. However, if Agan and Nog are in cahoots, I'm literally going to bang my head against the wall because that was so neat.

In her list earlier, she lists also Agan there (whom she also had voted originally on Day 1) - she does not list sally back then yet:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Suspiciousish

Glirdan - mild bad vibes.

Galadriel - pretty fishy. But she's totally right about herself taking all the attention and that being very harmful if she's not a wolf herself.

Nogrod - awfully quick to throw Galadriel to the lynch block, which could make sense regardless of her role if he was a wolf himself. Just btw I didn't like Nerwen's "others, discuss this while I sit back and relax" comment, makes me suspect something fishy between Nerwie and Noggie actually.

Aganzir - she's enjoying herself too much to be completely innocent.

Of other stuff, she mentioned Zil probably dreamed Menel, I have no idea how that could be relevant (at most I would say, if Menel was a Wolf and this was true, he wouldn't want to kill her. But it's really rather random). She also believed Kath innocent.

Summa summarum - the people she suspected are the ones I find rather suspicious too, so I wouldn't be too surprised about that the motive for her death might have been, apart from what I suggested above, simply that she was suspecting a Wolf, or even several Wolves. However that kind of reasoning has not been very common among Wolves lately, I think (or at least when I was last playing), and also, she certainly wasn't the only one who suspected those people. Again, if the reason was the opposite and the WWs wanted to frame somebody up, this is rather an extensive list, so not sure if that would work (if she suspected heavily just one person, fine, I could understand that). I have not been able to find anything that would point to her looking like a Ranger in her posts, which is a motive I would have expected from the WWs the most. Maybe the WWs just feared her being a sharp player and wanted to get rid of her, then. I would bet something between that, a Wolf on the list and/or the "no track in the voting list" idea I mentioned earlier. I wouldn't put that past Agan, for instance, to get rid of Lommy in such a manner (since she just briefly dropped suspecting her at that point, so there won't be immediate connection between them), of course we still have the full amount of Wolves, the whole pack needed a decisive motivation.

I shall be around, re-reading somehow, although I also have non-WW obligations. Hope more people show up to discuss.