WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Kath]

Oy, I have not been silent. I have been struggling with this deadline. Feels like I'm always playing catch up. And I'll be voting within half an hour again.

My vote yesterDay was based on the fact that I thought the wolves must have seen something in Lommy's posts to bother killing her. She was by no means trailless. I had to vote early and I wanted to make sure her posts were looked at in case she was on to something. Don't think I really succeeded but hey.

Agan's ranger reveal I'm willing to take at face value. If she's a wolf it's an impressive ploy but (I think) all the players have turned up now and I would have thought there would have been a counter reveal by now if she wasn't the real one.

So, this leaves me with:
Nog
Nerwen
Shasta
Legate
Menel

As potential wolves. Off to look at the thread.

[Meneltarmacil]

As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

[Kath]

Day 1:
Nog - feels that Menel going on about influential players is a crusade to stop people talking. This is pretty far fetched. Oddly defensive against Pitch, who hadn't actually threatened to vote for him. Now very aggressive against Pitch. Also aggressive against Menel. Suspicions of Pitch and G55 (new suspicion of G55 here) and states that he won't vote Menel. Said G55's vote for Pitch made it unlikely both are wolves, but they come up as his main vote possibilities.

Nerwen - sarcastic about Menel. Defends Agan's use of her - fair enough.

Shasta - defends Menel a little. Suspects Pitch for being suspicious about people talking of the Cobbler. Doesn't like G55's suspicion of Menel. Suspected G55 for backtracking on her suspicions and for faulty reasoning behind her vote. Fair reasons, but obviously a wolf can twist reasons to their liking.

Legate - expected more from Inzil and Pitch. This is 10 posts in. Even the most serious players can have one banter post surely! Makes the point I was trying to get to about the Cobbler needing to be lynched rather than Night killed. Pretty much defends Menel, and quite strongly. Looks at Nog and Lommy for focusing on him. Again defends Menel, this time against G55. Suspects Nog for his jumpy reaction to Pitch. Backtracks on Nog saying he has calmed down. Is looking to vote G55.

Menel - was talked about a lot for his 'Captain obvious' comments. I mean, they were obvious, but on Day 1 where conversation needs to be pushed so you don't get a list of 'oh no it's Day 1' posts I don't think this was too deeply suspicious. Reiterates Captain obvious statements. Reiterates Captain obvious statements again. Reiterates Captain obvious statements yet again. (I know he was trying to explain his point, but to be honest I think everyone had got it by now, we were more looking for some opinions on who these influential wolves are then just hearing the theory again.) Aha! Suspects Inzil. Votes him.

Day 2:
Nog - very reluctant to give clear theories on Inzil's possible dreams. Understandable. But I feel like given how strong he was on all his ideas the Day before that the wishy-washyness is odd. Given that none of G55, Inzil, Pitch or Agan (assuming on that last one) was a wolf, Nog's last vote for Pitch was not any kind of 'saving' vote, which would look suspicious by now, but was just the nail in the coffin. Suspicious simply for doing that, Nog is not a cowardly wolf. Was very gleeful after having decided G55 was definitely suspicious and then this 'Galwolf slip' which now clearly wasn't. He was right about sally though not based on what she said about G55. Sudden deep suspicion of sally for not suspecting him. It's so sudden I'm not sure it is wolf on wolf, unless he suddenly saw sally had put him as not suspicious and worried it would come back to bite him in later Days. Still determined G55 is a wolf but is equally suspicious of sally. Repeats this.

Nerwen - pushing G55 as a wolf idea. Nerwen's 'what is Nog? Discuss' comment is rather ... lazy. Feels like 'I can't be bothered to work it out'. But then Nerwen isn't a cowardly wolf either. If Nog is a wolf not sure Nerwen would be. Half-hearted suspicion doesn't feel like her. Slightly defends G55. Thinks sally or Lommy could be the Cobbler.

Shasta - points out sally's comment makes G55's early comment into more of a drama than it maybe would have been otherwise. Defends G55. Points out Menel ignores Nog but thinks sally suspicious based on the voting. Suspicion of sally. Had u-turned on G55 after her 'Galwolf' thing and decides we have to know her role now.

Legate - thinks Nog is stretching a lot, which is interesting given how vague Nog was about what Inzil might have dreamt. Had good points about G55 maybe not being a wolf as she was only going to come under suspicion again. Thinks Inzil dreamt Menel, is confused by G55. Slightly defends G55. If he and Nog are both wolves this kind of works - Nog attacks and Legate defends. Looks to see if Nerwen will vote with him on Nog. Probably unlikely that Legate and Nerwen are both wolves based on that. Wants to vote Nog or G55, discounting sally because he feels he needs to hear more from her. Wants to vote G55 as it will make the roles of others clearer. I don't see that voting Nog wouldn't have had largely the same effect but then he wasn't up for the lynch.

Menel - agrees with the suspicion about G55 and says it implicates sally.

Day 3:
Nog - very defeatist. I mean, this whole thing could have been a carefully done ploy, especially as he was first in. It's a hell of an effort though. Says Legate is pushing Day 1 voting. As I read it, he wasn't, but this could easily be a language barrier thing. Shouts: Shasta, Legate, Nerwen. Well we know it can't be all three now. And still suspects sally, so this isn't a serious list anyway. Sad face after 'the cobbler is no more' ... weird. Defends himself, was pretty reasonable, got aggressive again at the end. Haven't played in a while - is this how Nog plays now? Willing to vote sally or Legate - with sally having already received a vote. Though Nog then shows himself willing to go for Agan, which would be using my vote. And backtracks a little on sally. Yet now states he'll vote her.

Nerwen - didn't like Shasta's excuse of voting G55 to remove a distraction. Again wishy-washy on Nog. Doesn't like Agan's out-of-context quote and my suspicion of Agan (which, by the way, I hadn't realised at all that Agan was apparently joking). Suggests Shasta, Legate and sally as a trio. Possible I think.

Shasta - questions Menel, suggests sally is suspicious. Interesting point about votes not being jumped on, points the finger at Legate. Legate voted for Nog, so if Nog is a wolf it makes sense no one would have jumped on it. Not jumping on Agan would probably be down to not being able to make it stick. Shasta discounts Agan, and nearly discounts sally.

Legate - looks at Lommy. Thinks she probably had a wolf on her suspect list somewhere to have bothered being killed. Suspicion of Nog and possibly Shasta.

Menel - intends to look at the G55 bandwagon. Hmm now Menel suspects Nog and sally. Very unlikely then to be a Nog, sally, Menel trio. But two of the three is possible. Don't know what Menel is like as a wolf. Brave enough for this? Or following the lead of a brave Nog or a nihilistic sally? Argues he wouldn't follow a Nog-wolf lead. Then point out he mentioned sally too.

Day 4:
Nog - states it was actually Legate who was suggesting people other than sally. Well so was he.
Legate - thinks Nog could have voted to save sally if they were packmates. I think this is pretty unlikely. With everyone going for her why bother?
Menel - suggests Legate is a wolf who voted too early so the wolves couldn't create a bandwagon. This was mentioned elsewhere yesterDay. States Nerwen, Legate and Kath are the wolves. Well, I am not, but I'd be willing to go with the other two names at the moment.

Votes:
Day 1: Menel --> Inzil; Shasta --> G55; Nog --> Pitch; Legate --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 2: Menel --> G55; Legate --> G55; Shasta --> G55 (crossed with Legate); Nog --> G55; Nerwen --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 3: Legate --> Nog; Nog --> sally; Shasta --> sally (crossed with Nog); Nerwen --> sally

Posting this, coming back with quick thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

Silent in-flipping-deed.

[Kath]

Yep, I'm happy with the idea that Legate voted early for someone who the wolves couldn't then get a bandwagon going on (Nog). Thus sally had to be sacrificed to avoid suspicion.

++LEGATE

[Nogrod]

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I still think our best bet toDay is Legate as there are so many questionmarks there with the others; like that an innocent Shasta might have said what he did just being indecisive, or that Nerwen might have been just a very subtle wolf I know she is cabable of, or that Menel after all, with a theory built to pick a predetermined person fails to acknowledge that it actually fitted a (now) known wolf as well...

But well, that all is very indecisive as now. If I have energy, I try to make a kind of summa of my notes from yesterDay, if not, then I'll be back tomorrow aka on the second half of the Day.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

I'll say this: I held my vote so long waiting for my heart to come back and tell us what this "something" was– then realised time had run out.

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Been checking the thread sporadically from my phone. I'll make a decent post later when I'm at my computer, but I noticed a luminescent gleam mentioning my behavior at the end of yesterday, so I thought I'd clarify that, in my paranoia, I was momentarily convinced that Sally was hinting at being the Ranger. That sane paranoia was also sure that Agan was a wolf that had spent the early part of the game posing as the cobbler.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

That would be exactly what I would have said.

I decided to go and check through D2 for that as it felt important (more important than my notes on yesterDay which I can still type tomorrow aka later toDay if it feels like something that helps).

Now both Legate and Shasta voted G55 on D1.

ON D2 they both are quite ambiguos about her, more suspecting than not (there's a clear difference on that Legate discusses her over and over again ending up in that limbo while Shasta posted very little on D2 in general).

An interesting exchange happens between Lommy and Legate when Lommy notes to him that if G55 is a wolf not only me (whom Legate had concentrated) but also Sally could be a wolf. Legate accepts it as "theoretically" possible (how nice) but thinks it so much speculation it would be better revealed with G55's role...

After I (and few others) started pushing for Sally to be a candidate, Legate says he's not willing to jump into Sallywagon.

I pressed on my #159 & #160 (15 to 10 minutes before the DL) for a pick between the two believing they were both wolves (votes then G55/3, Sally/2)... and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

Well it strengthens my belief in Legate being a wolf (the answer to Lommy mentioned above!). But with Shasta it leaves me quite out in the open still

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.

Look at the timing of the last votes: Sally nearly was saved, and Nogrod lynched by default (though I doubt that could have been planned). And I would say Sally must have had hopes of turning the vote away from herself, even at the last. What I mean is, I don't think the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was quite as certain beforehand as you think.

Originally Posted by Agan

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.

Agan, you know I hate to use "if I were a wolf" reasoning... but I suppose there's a time and a place for everything. For what it's worth, then: if I were a wolf, I believe I'd have thrown Sally under a bus a lot quicker than I did.

More to the point– since, as it happens, I'm not a wolf , I know you must have wrongly eliminated someone from your list of possibilities.

Now, it seems likely enough the wolves knew that they would not be able to count on each other being around in time to secure the vote. If both Legate and Kath are wolves, and both *had* to vote early, the latter may not have *dared* follow the former's vote, for fear of the village catching on– which might well have done for them. Do you see what I'm saying? I don't know if that was the case, of course– but I don't think it's safe simply to rule Kath out yet, anyway.

Then, Menel:

Originally Posted by Agan

Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him)

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

EDIT:X'd with Nog.