WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Aganzir]

Here are some things that made me concerned about Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Nerwen 94

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

It's similar to sally's later "I wonder if Agan is a baddie. Discuss."

After Lommy and my votes for sally, Nerwen quoted her question about finding the cobbler, called it odd and suggested sally's behaviour might fit her being the cobbler (but then, so might Lommy's).

On day 3, I analysed sally, and Nerwen commented demurely on a minor point (the quote should be mine, not sally's). That was the first thing that alarmed me about her because that's exactly how she tends to react to a fellow wolf getting under suspicion - agreeing but not agreeing, if you know what I mean. She continutes it in a later post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen 203

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

However later, in 211, she offers Nog (who had suggested a pack of Shasta, Legate and Nerwen) a compromise - Shasta, Legate and sally. Yes sally had received some suspicion, but then Nerwen had been suspicious of Nog herself. Anyway I'm not quite sure she'd be that willing to bus a fellow because it was by no means certain we'd lynch sally.

So yeah, I'm far more certain of Legate's guilt. It's impossible to ever accuse Nerwen with absolute certainty (except when she starts off by saying that terrible things have happened - this is what you get for reminding me of my slips ), but I don't think her being a wolf is far-fetched. Even though it could of course also be Menel or Kath. The latter was acting weirdly yesterday (actually all of the game to be honest), while we haven't seen much of the former... But then, if Kath was a wolf, wouldn't she have voted for Nogrod with Legate?

[Meneltarmacil]

Nogrod and Shasta don't look like wolves. Their cross-posted votes for Sally put her in the lead to be lynched, and Sally's vote for Nog instead of Agan leads toward that direction as well.

Kath's silence makes her pretty unreadable. Could go either way; there just isn't enough information to tell.

Nerwen voted very late and voted for Sally. She was beyond saving, though, so it could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf.

Yet something really bothers me about yesterday's voting. If even one innocent did vote for another, the three wolves could have banded together to take that number up to four. Even if the other villagers all voted for an alternative lynch, the wolves would still win.

But after Legate voted for Nogrod and Kath voted for Aganzir, no such wolf-pile occurred. Sally did try to add to the Nogrod votes, but the other wolves didn't. Either we've got some rather unintelligent wolves, or either Legate or Kath is a wolf who voted too early.

All in all, I'd really like to see some answers regarding the wolves' actions.

[Nogrod]

Half-time...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

if Kath was a wolf, wouldn't she have voted for Nogrod with Legate?

Exactly.

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...

But she didn't. So a reason for me to trust on her toDay at least (well, unless things go very complicated).

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims. And even if there is, they must be followed by some exceptionally believable stuff looking at both Agan's vote yesterDay (the same fits to her vote as with Kath's, or even more as it was already the third vote and she herself already had a vote when introducing a new votée) and all the sense she has been making toDay.

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.

But even if Legate is a wolf (and I hope to delve into that myself as well later on) we still miss the third.

And if I'm right about the three I have been talking about, then it is one from Shasta, Nerwen, Meneltarmacil... and it could be anyone, really.

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.

EDIT: X'd with Menel... back with you after the game...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Either we've got some rather unintelligent wolves, or either Legate or Kath is a wolf who voted too early.

Exactly. And this is one of the reasons I'm really suspicious of Legate.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm also trusting Agan's revelation as long as there are no counter-claims.

Oh come on, I'll be dead tonight anyway so no need to doubt.

I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.

Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.

++LEGATE OF AMON LANC

Because there's no chance he's not a wolf.

I may or may not pop in before work tomorrow depending on how early I get up. Now I'm going to bed with Lovecraft.

Good luck.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Agan

Oh come on, I'll be dead tonight anyway so no need to doubt.

Heh. I did actually continue from where you quoted with this:

Originally Posted by me

And even if there is, they must be followed by some exceptionally believable stuff looking at both Agan's vote yesterDay (the same fits to her vote as with Kath's, or even more as it was already the third vote and she herself already had a vote when introducing a new votée) and all the sense she has been making toDay.

So it takes some game-changing arguments for me to not trust you here Agan. Like let's say Legate is lynched and is not a wolf, and you are alive toMorrow - and there's another ranger-reveal... or something of that scope. I mean never say never, but yeah, thus far I have no reason not to trust your revelation.

I'll check the late part of yesterDay if there is anything worth noticing. And I do encourage others to do that too.

[Kath]

Oy, I have not been silent. I have been struggling with this deadline. Feels like I'm always playing catch up. And I'll be voting within half an hour again.

My vote yesterDay was based on the fact that I thought the wolves must have seen something in Lommy's posts to bother killing her. She was by no means trailless. I had to vote early and I wanted to make sure her posts were looked at in case she was on to something. Don't think I really succeeded but hey.

Agan's ranger reveal I'm willing to take at face value. If she's a wolf it's an impressive ploy but (I think) all the players have turned up now and I would have thought there would have been a counter reveal by now if she wasn't the real one.

So, this leaves me with:
Nog
Nerwen
Shasta
Legate
Menel

As potential wolves. Off to look at the thread.

[Meneltarmacil]

As for me, my major suspects at the moment are Nerwen, Legate, and Kath.

[Kath]

Day 1:
Nog - feels that Menel going on about influential players is a crusade to stop people talking. This is pretty far fetched. Oddly defensive against Pitch, who hadn't actually threatened to vote for him. Now very aggressive against Pitch. Also aggressive against Menel. Suspicions of Pitch and G55 (new suspicion of G55 here) and states that he won't vote Menel. Said G55's vote for Pitch made it unlikely both are wolves, but they come up as his main vote possibilities.

Nerwen - sarcastic about Menel. Defends Agan's use of her - fair enough.

Shasta - defends Menel a little. Suspects Pitch for being suspicious about people talking of the Cobbler. Doesn't like G55's suspicion of Menel. Suspected G55 for backtracking on her suspicions and for faulty reasoning behind her vote. Fair reasons, but obviously a wolf can twist reasons to their liking.

Legate - expected more from Inzil and Pitch. This is 10 posts in. Even the most serious players can have one banter post surely! Makes the point I was trying to get to about the Cobbler needing to be lynched rather than Night killed. Pretty much defends Menel, and quite strongly. Looks at Nog and Lommy for focusing on him. Again defends Menel, this time against G55. Suspects Nog for his jumpy reaction to Pitch. Backtracks on Nog saying he has calmed down. Is looking to vote G55.

Menel - was talked about a lot for his 'Captain obvious' comments. I mean, they were obvious, but on Day 1 where conversation needs to be pushed so you don't get a list of 'oh no it's Day 1' posts I don't think this was too deeply suspicious. Reiterates Captain obvious statements. Reiterates Captain obvious statements again. Reiterates Captain obvious statements yet again. (I know he was trying to explain his point, but to be honest I think everyone had got it by now, we were more looking for some opinions on who these influential wolves are then just hearing the theory again.) Aha! Suspects Inzil. Votes him.

Day 2:
Nog - very reluctant to give clear theories on Inzil's possible dreams. Understandable. But I feel like given how strong he was on all his ideas the Day before that the wishy-washyness is odd. Given that none of G55, Inzil, Pitch or Agan (assuming on that last one) was a wolf, Nog's last vote for Pitch was not any kind of 'saving' vote, which would look suspicious by now, but was just the nail in the coffin. Suspicious simply for doing that, Nog is not a cowardly wolf. Was very gleeful after having decided G55 was definitely suspicious and then this 'Galwolf slip' which now clearly wasn't. He was right about sally though not based on what she said about G55. Sudden deep suspicion of sally for not suspecting him. It's so sudden I'm not sure it is wolf on wolf, unless he suddenly saw sally had put him as not suspicious and worried it would come back to bite him in later Days. Still determined G55 is a wolf but is equally suspicious of sally. Repeats this.

Nerwen - pushing G55 as a wolf idea. Nerwen's 'what is Nog? Discuss' comment is rather ... lazy. Feels like 'I can't be bothered to work it out'. But then Nerwen isn't a cowardly wolf either. If Nog is a wolf not sure Nerwen would be. Half-hearted suspicion doesn't feel like her. Slightly defends G55. Thinks sally or Lommy could be the Cobbler.

Shasta - points out sally's comment makes G55's early comment into more of a drama than it maybe would have been otherwise. Defends G55. Points out Menel ignores Nog but thinks sally suspicious based on the voting. Suspicion of sally. Had u-turned on G55 after her 'Galwolf' thing and decides we have to know her role now.

Legate - thinks Nog is stretching a lot, which is interesting given how vague Nog was about what Inzil might have dreamt. Had good points about G55 maybe not being a wolf as she was only going to come under suspicion again. Thinks Inzil dreamt Menel, is confused by G55. Slightly defends G55. If he and Nog are both wolves this kind of works - Nog attacks and Legate defends. Looks to see if Nerwen will vote with him on Nog. Probably unlikely that Legate and Nerwen are both wolves based on that. Wants to vote Nog or G55, discounting sally because he feels he needs to hear more from her. Wants to vote G55 as it will make the roles of others clearer. I don't see that voting Nog wouldn't have had largely the same effect but then he wasn't up for the lynch.

Menel - agrees with the suspicion about G55 and says it implicates sally.

Day 3:
Nog - very defeatist. I mean, this whole thing could have been a carefully done ploy, especially as he was first in. It's a hell of an effort though. Says Legate is pushing Day 1 voting. As I read it, he wasn't, but this could easily be a language barrier thing. Shouts: Shasta, Legate, Nerwen. Well we know it can't be all three now. And still suspects sally, so this isn't a serious list anyway. Sad face after 'the cobbler is no more' ... weird. Defends himself, was pretty reasonable, got aggressive again at the end. Haven't played in a while - is this how Nog plays now? Willing to vote sally or Legate - with sally having already received a vote. Though Nog then shows himself willing to go for Agan, which would be using my vote. And backtracks a little on sally. Yet now states he'll vote her.

Nerwen - didn't like Shasta's excuse of voting G55 to remove a distraction. Again wishy-washy on Nog. Doesn't like Agan's out-of-context quote and my suspicion of Agan (which, by the way, I hadn't realised at all that Agan was apparently joking). Suggests Shasta, Legate and sally as a trio. Possible I think.

Shasta - questions Menel, suggests sally is suspicious. Interesting point about votes not being jumped on, points the finger at Legate. Legate voted for Nog, so if Nog is a wolf it makes sense no one would have jumped on it. Not jumping on Agan would probably be down to not being able to make it stick. Shasta discounts Agan, and nearly discounts sally.

Legate - looks at Lommy. Thinks she probably had a wolf on her suspect list somewhere to have bothered being killed. Suspicion of Nog and possibly Shasta.

Menel - intends to look at the G55 bandwagon. Hmm now Menel suspects Nog and sally. Very unlikely then to be a Nog, sally, Menel trio. But two of the three is possible. Don't know what Menel is like as a wolf. Brave enough for this? Or following the lead of a brave Nog or a nihilistic sally? Argues he wouldn't follow a Nog-wolf lead. Then point out he mentioned sally too.

Day 4:
Nog - states it was actually Legate who was suggesting people other than sally. Well so was he.
Legate - thinks Nog could have voted to save sally if they were packmates. I think this is pretty unlikely. With everyone going for her why bother?
Menel - suggests Legate is a wolf who voted too early so the wolves couldn't create a bandwagon. This was mentioned elsewhere yesterDay. States Nerwen, Legate and Kath are the wolves. Well, I am not, but I'd be willing to go with the other two names at the moment.

Votes:
Day 1: Menel --> Inzil; Shasta --> G55; Nog --> Pitch; Legate --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 2: Menel --> G55; Legate --> G55; Shasta --> G55 (crossed with Legate); Nog --> G55; Nerwen --> G55 (crossed with Nog)
Day 3: Legate --> Nog; Nog --> sally; Shasta --> sally (crossed with Nog); Nerwen --> sally

Posting this, coming back with quick thoughts and vote.

[Kath]

Silent in-flipping-deed.