Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Did you read what Morsul wrote? He assumed that Eomer was a seer and you were guilty, these two parts of the same set of interpretations? It would make sense to vote for you then instead of Steve. Two relatively reachable goals at once - saving the seer, lynching a KM.

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

"try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.
.

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

Sally's suspicions of me today seem much better than yesterday. and she's right Pom sort of tossed them aside fairly easily... a bit suspicious. (I know someone not suspecting me is more suspicious than the person who does, welcome to my brain)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

I find the last sentence amusing. I actually have solved one today, with what seems like 100 other things going on.

I'm glad to see the focus on Boro has eased somewhat. Yes, it was important to take a look at what might have made him a target, but that only takes us so far.
It's only useful in ferreting out baddies if he said something that we can narrow down as alarming to one in particular. Otherwise, they went after him for A. Looking like Elendil; or B. Looking like a Gifted.

Anyway, I think YesterDay's votes are more helpful. Also, just skimming the last few hours, I think people have some interesting points about Pom. Some of her suspicions look rather forced.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[the phantom]

As soon as I get back I'll do a look at the voting yesterday and give impressions...

[satansaloser2005]

Do we have any idea if Mänwe will be back before deadline? I'd hate for someone to be modfired so early in the game.

[the phantom]

Okay, general thoughts on voting alone. First, the votes-

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro ++ Lottie
Brin ++ Eomer (2)
Sally ++ Eomer (3)
Phantom ++ Lottie (2)
Steve ++ Eomer (4)

DID NOT VOTE
Nerwen
Manwe

Okay, when I write down some basic assumptions regarding the vote, I find most of them are ridiculously obvious (which in itself says something perhaps). But I'll say them anyway just so you see the evolution of my thinking.

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

So, given the above three observations, we are left with three basic hypotheses-

1) If Steve is then Morsul is.
2) If Sally is then Inzil is.
3) If Inzil and/or Sally is then Lottie is.

Now obviously a single day of voting can hardly be deemed overwhelming evidence, particularly with Manwe and Nerwen not voting at all (they could both be KMs thus rendering all theories void). But still- we have to start forming theories somewhere.

I'm off to work, but I'll be rereading Day 1 and today if at all possible with those potential links in mind and see if anything jumps out and sabotages them or corroborates them....

(Should be able to check in periodically from work, and I'll be off in time to vote, no worries there.)

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

See this while incorrect conclusion makes sense to me. If I was Sally I'd suspect me. It was my careless research that's at fault but there it is. Does this clear Sally for me? No but this looks like a lot of work just to throw an innocent under the bus for a KM.

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

X'ed phantom

[Mänwe]

I'm here now-thankfully its the weekend. Thoughts to come soon!

[Loslote]

Innocent as the bright morning star or something poetical like that
Lottie
Shasta
tp
Brinn

I see no *reason* to suspect
Manwe
Nerwen
Sally
Pom

I see no reason to suspect...but feel like I maybe ought to
Zil
Morsul
Steve

Unless I start seeing actual reasons for suspicion, I'll have to go with one of the three from the latter group. I don't like voting on 'well, he feels like he maybe might be a wolf...' so I'll be looking through the thread, seeing if I can't maybe find any more substantial reasons for voting. I don't have anything else to do until DL, so I should be around.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I said I was here and reading, and then got pulled away. Let me get a few thoughts in order real fast.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

As a matter of fact, I still feel Pom is somewhat dodgy and her suspicions seem forced. Barring new developments, that's probably where my vote will go.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

Certainly not - but as an argument against Pom, her suspicion of Brinn is not a particularly valid one. I haven't really seen much evidence against Pom besides the 'well, she feels evil' argument I've been trying to avoid. Moreover, she does not, in fact, feel evil when I read her posts, so, while I'm making no arguments for her innocence, I'm also not blindly accepting any faulty arguments for her guilt.

[Inziladun]

Then again, there are Sally and Steve's late votes for Eomer. Hm.

x/d with Lottie

[the phantom]

Just so we're clear of the position here-

Population: 11
Good vs Bad: 8 vs 3
Known Innocents: 3

Assuming an incorrect lynch-
10
7 vs 3
3

The baddies kill Amandil tonight, as he is the one guaranteed not to be protected tonight. Thus tomorrow-
9
6 vs 3
2

If the Baddies elect to leave Amandil alive to avoid his power and go after Brin or I and guess wrong (Anarion will be protecting one of us no doubt), then we'll sit here tomorrow-
10
7 vs 3
3

And in that circumstance the Baddies would then be forced to attempt a repeat kill the following night as Anarion would split duties between Amandil and the remaining known, meaning even with yet another bad lynch-
8
5 vs 3
2

At that point things would be ridiculously weighted against he Baddies despite lynches favoring them, and particularly if Anarion and/or Isildur is still alive, as that would leave even in a simple dice roll situation a 60-75% chance of lynching a Baddie, and it would be ridiculous to think that absolutely no decent suspicions would emerge by that point.

In short, due to the untenable situation the KMs would be in with a failed kill, we'll almost certainly lose Shasta tonight, which sucks, but at least we get a teensy kickback from his death. And if we can lynch correctly either today or tomorrow I think we have a puncher's chance of winning even without Elendil, so I don't think we need be overly depressed.

[Brinniel]

Pom earlier discusses her disapproval of Nerwen and me not wanting to spread out the lynch candidates and I don't like how she jumped to conclusions (saying several people pushed aside their suspicion of Morsul to vote Eomer instead...you can have multiple suspects, you know). However, I'm not sure that's cause for her to be a baddie. And I wouldn't think a baddie would feel the need to be so forceful in her opinions at this point.

If Pom is innocent, I could see as a prime target for a baddie to try to get her lynched. After all, she directs some suspicion toward a now known innocent and makes some illogical statements. That could easily give reason for someone to vote her. Plus, she won't be around for the rest of toDay, so she can't even defend herself from suspicion. So yeah, I might watch those attempting to bandwagon against her. So far that would be Inzil and Morsul.

Of course, this would all be invalid if Pom is in fact a baddie. But regardless, I'd rather not vote for her because I would like to hear from her more toMorrow.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Pomegranate

#28 - Posts about what Amandil and Elendil should do. Sides with an Amandil reveal and random lists Day 1. This -

Originally Posted by Pom

And just in case - if a KM decides to do a fake-reveal, Amandil, at least counter that! Otherwise we're stuck with a lot of problematicly full trust to a KM, and potentially to a chain of people after that.

-strikes me as odd and I'm not sure why, unless it's just that a KM revealing as Amandil that day would have been incredibly suicidal.

#31 - more about dream lists.

#34 - defends him/herself to Inzil. This -

Originally Posted by Pom

There is a reason why I haven't posted a list yet, that's because I don't want everyone to just jump blindly in

- confuses me; what harm was there at this point in time to actually doing what you wanted everyone else to do, post a list? This almost looks overly concerned with wanting to go with whatever the majority wants.

#38 - more about dreams.

#45 - wants to vote. I agree.

#75 - finally posts list.

#84 - posts a feeling-list about everyone. Is pretty noncommittal about everyone except Nerwen and Inzil. The interesting part to me is that Pom says [/b]Inzil[/b] looks too "explanatory", basing part of this on this quote by Inzil -

Originally Posted by Inzil

All right. I'm just looking for holes in this deal, before everyone just jumps in.

- which looks eerily like something Pom him/herself said earlier. This brand of hypocrisy always makes me raise an eyebrow.

#191 - This bit, I'm bothered by.

Originally Posted by Pom

Votes: Brinniel and Nerwen made points on not adding new people to the voting. I'll need to check the times, but I don't like that point - if you don't believe anyone on the voting list is a KM, it's better to (potentially) lose a vote than to vote an innocent. And if you do, why keep mentioning that you only vote within the already-voted, since you'd then have other things to say as well.

It's actually pretty acceptable to not spread out votes late in the day; any baddies that have saved their votes have that much more control of the lynch. Also, this is before phantom mentioned he'd dreamed of Brinn.

#193 - reiterates suspicion of not wanting to bring in a new candidate for lynch close to DL.

#195 - this is the second time Pom has mentioned people suspecting Morsul but voting Eomer.

#197 - explains him/herself to Nerwen (and backtracks a bit?) Thinks if Boro was killed for being dangerous, then the KMs should have rightly gone for phantom.

#208 - states intention to vote for one of the later Eomwer-voters in general, and Sally in particular. Seems to be mostly because Sally suspected Morsul earlier, and Pom thinks she's just jumping on other people's suspicions. But didn't Sally suspect Morsul yesterday too? Something to look into.

#209 - considers Eonwe to be much less suspicious than Sally.

#210 - votes Sally.



Conclusions -

There's definitely something weird there. I'll need to go back and see what Sally has said, but it seemed to me that Pom was pushing her a bit hard on not really much. In addition, I feel like his Day 1 vote for Inzil was based on a double standard. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him today, but I do want to look at some other people.

[Inziladun]

I have to leave for a bit, and should have time to consider the vote.

I do think either Sally or Steve could well be evil. Of the two, Sally has been pretty sensible it seems the past few hours, so of the twain I'd prefer Steve as the better bet. Like I said though, I wouldn't be opposed to Pom either.