Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper

I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.

I saw that but I found the meat in the rest of it where she seems to shrug off anything to do with copper

I take it you're talking about the "I get you *nods*I get you"(paraphrasing.)

Seems sort of a bantery intr to the rest of the post.

x'ed nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I saw that but I found the meat in the rest of it where she seems to shrug off anything to do with copper

I take it you're talking about the "I get you *nods*I get you"(paraphrasing.)

Seems sort of a bantery intr to the rest of the post.

x'ed nerwen

G55 herself has explained her attitude to Legate as deliberate cobbler-impersonation (#196, #202). Which is a nice little tricky defence if in fact she actually *is* the cobbler.

However, supposing she is, it still looks like she genuinely thinks Legate's a wolf... so why lynch him?

EDIT: x'd since Morsul at #234.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

G55 herself has explained her attitude to Legate as deliberate cobbler-impersonation (#196, #202). Which is a nice little tricky defence if in fact she actually *is* the cobbler.

However, supposing she is, it still looks like she genuinely thinks Legate's a wolf... so why lynch him?

EDIT: x'd since Morsul at #234.

hey in (#196,

What does This mean:

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm saying?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

G55 herself has explained her attitude to Legate as deliberate cobbler-impersonation (#196, #202). Which is a nice little tricky defence if in fact she actually *is* the cobbler.

However, supposing she is, it still looks like she genuinely thinks Legate's a wolf... so why lynch him?

EDIT: x'd since Morsul at #234.

Misplaced survival instinct, possibly? Has G55 ever been a Cobbler before? I don't think I remember her being one.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, at this juncture I'll either be voting one of G55 and Legate, or Eonwe whom I still find suspicious (granted, a lot of that is in connection with G55, so...)

[Morsul the Dark]

I think G55 is the cobbler

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm saying?

I've been going over this a few times what does "likelty to be prtected" mean? and any innocent would be better than a wolf(for the wolves) sooo unless G55 is the cobbler her death is as good as any other to the wolves.

x'ed a bunch

[Coppermirror]

Interesting. We're finally getting a burst of activity from several people who had been really quiet. Day 3 is going to be pretty interesting, I think.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Interesting. We're finally getting a burst of activity from several people who had been really quiet. Day 3 is going to be pretty interesting, I think.

It is already pretty interesting.

[satansaloser2005]

It's ~0:15 until DL, yes?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It's ~0:15 until DL, yes?

Yes, ma'am.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It's ~0:15 until DL, yes?

Yes.

[Coppermirror]

If my count is right, there have been three votes for G55, and five for Legate. I see that Eonwe said he was abstaining, so Legate will certainly be lynched no matter how Nerwen votes.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If my count is right, there have been three votes for G55, and five for Legate. I see that Eonwe said he was abstaining, so Legate will certainly be lynched no matter how Nerwen votes.

I must have missed one, then. My apologies.

[Nerwen]

I didn't see this about Steve abstaining.

Well, now it doesn't make any difference how I vote.

Still

++Legate

It seems to make the most sense out of the two.

EDIT:X'd since Cop at #262.

[Coppermirror]

I'd better double check once more.

Votes for Legate: G55, Inzil, McCaber, Sally, me. Yep, five.

Edit: cross-posted since G55's last.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I also forgot Eonwe had abstained today. Would a wolf do that?

Something to think about...

[Galadriel55]

Well, good Night, people!


Last minute thoughts - Shasta gets extra reindeer noses for reading so quickly, and he still looks innocent. Morsul looks merely confused. Nerwen - depends on her vote. Interesting....... yessss......

Edit: xed with Shasta and Nerwen

[Coppermirror]

Nerwn, you need to vote now or else you'll probably get mod-fired.

[Morsul the Dark]

instead of posting a post by post These are some folks I've read every post from and found not really much in the incrimination category

Zil- Nothing suspicious seems very helpful but not overeagerly so...

Copper- though one wolf appearing helpful and posting a lot(Legate) is likely I doubt both would be so loud. Copper seems innocent to me for now

Now Shasta... I didn't have anything on him(Ha remembered this time!) until I got to yesterday's voting and his impressions:

197:

I do have to say my initial impression of the G55-wagon is that of... convenience, almost,

and

218

Lots of Legate voting going on. It's really almost unanimous, actually, which raises my hackles a bit.

Now maybe he doesn't like either bandwagon in general, Or maybe he wanted to look innocent and defended G55 then backstepped when his partner Legate came under fire...

[McCaber]

Well blast. Nerwen was the only one of you lot I trusted completely, which might be why the wolves killed her. I'll have to go back and search her paper trail to be sure, though.

On the plus side, Legate was actually a wolf!

[Coppermirror]

I think that at this stage of the game, the wolf isn't in a position where they can afford to kill people off just in order to cause disorder or remove people whom others might not suspect much. I can only assume that they killed Nerwen because they thought she was the Seer. It makes no sense for them to be trying to target anyone else when the wolf is in such a weak position.

I'll be back later.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ghostly voice: It's NerwEn!

*goes back to being dead*

For a second I could have sworn that I wasn't the only ghost currently in Christmas Town!

Ahem, it must have been my imagination.

My current plan is to examine possible wolf pack configurations. During this I will from time to time be considering each person's reaction to people I know to be innocent (Boro, Nerwen, and myself) and to people I consider very likely to be innocent (G55) with a view to seeing whether they and Legate might be working together to lay suspicions.

...And in the end I only managed to go over two people, and it's not as if I looked in depth at every post of the first possibility. This is so time consuming.

G55 and Legate

I still need to consider this one . This could work if...it was all a plan to have G55 gain our trust and slowly pick us off. A very elaborate plan. Since Legate did turn out to be a wolf, I don't think it's possible for G55 to be the Cobbler, because something like this would need to be planned via private communication and also because it would be plain ridiculous for a Cobbler to do this.

No. No way. If this is true then the wolves deserve to win. I just don't believe it. If anyone has an analysis they think shows otherwise, I'll definitely listen, but right now the provisional conclusion is that G55 is innocent. Would a wolves really choose to halve their pack on Day 2? No.

Eonwe and Legate

Page 1, Day 1 - No interaction or mentions of each other. Legate posts but Eonwe isn't there yet.

Page 2, Day 1 - Eonwe arrives, says his time has been limited. Legate cross posts and in list of current notes on everyone says "Steve - strangely absent."

Eonwe gives a list of current suspicions.
Thinks G55 looks good so far.
Mixed views about me.
Not sure what to make of Nerwen due to lack of posting.
Thinks Boro doesn't feel like the innocent Boro he's used to.
Thinks Legate asked useful questions but those don't speak for his innocence or guilt, and considers Cobblerhood.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

People I'd rather not for just yet:
Legate
Morsul
G55

People I need to see more of before I begin to make any sort of judgement:
Shasta
Sally
Nerwen

Page 3, Day 1 - Eonwe says he doesn't suspect me of Cobblerhood, but that doesn't mean he thinks I'm innocent. Says of Legate that "I'm not really finding him that innocent now that I look over him" and is not inclined to vote for him that Day because he's generating discussion.

Eonwe considers the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack but isn't sure they'd be that obvious when there are only two of them.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Other than those, I could potentially see myself going for Lommy, McC or Sally. Coppermirror or Nerwen could be possibilities, but only if the other option is someone I haven't mentioned so far.

edit: I completely forgot about Shasta, which is a bit worrying, but then, his most recent post seems quite good, so I probably won't be voting him toDay.

He then votes Boro, that being the second vote out of four for him. Shasta comments that it looks as if that vote was carefully set up over the course of the Day, and Eonwe replies that it was more that he'd prefer voting for Boro than Sally or Zil, both of whom were on two votes at the time he voted.

Page 3, Day 2 - Eonwe talks to McCaber about a few things.

Page 4, Day 2 - Eonwe banters with some people. He then goes through a summary of people's suspicions in the game so far. It's useful, so I'll link it: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=144

I find his wording summarising Legate's post #65 interesting. "VERY light suspicion of CM".

Eonwe then abstains on voting for the Day and leaves.

Legate then shows up with some views. Of Eonwe he says...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

From new things toDay I am feeling somewhat uncertain about Steve (his replies to McCab), though that's more just the air of it, nothing specific.

In post #157 I consider and provisionally discard the possibility of a Legate-Eonwe pack.

Page 5, Day 2 - Legate goes through his suspicions. He says "I was hoping for more from Steve, and I still hope he will show up." and says similar things about a few others. Then Legate goes through another suspicions list.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Steve - I would just hope to see him around more. On re-read, I don't seem to recall what seemed so strange to me about his posting earlier. Actually, his posts have been toDay largely only short things, some lists etc. with not much content altogether. Some people said his vote yesterDay could have been a Wolf jumping on a bandwagon, though again, he could have jumped on either of the existing ones by the time he voted, unless he didn't care and/or there was a Wolf being voted for (though since there are only two Wolves, they would not have been both if Steve was one as well). All in all, needs more input, that's about it. But watching.

And that's the last mention of Eonwe before Legate left.

I doubt that those two were in a pack together, but I can't rule it out. The backtracking from Legate in the last post mentioning Eonwe confuses me a bit. It might be that Legate was initially trying to lay bait for later suspicions of Eonwe (with his talk about an air of uncertainty about him) but then thought better of it for the time being.

It seems a bit odd that Eonwe decided to not vote for Legate partially on the basis of the latter's reasonable activity level, and Eonwe did vote for Boro-innocent. On the other hand, Eonwe has been reasonably suspicious of Legate throughout, and he wasn't the only one, so it's not as if he was being suspicious towards a totally unlikely person.

I do still think that given the Day 1 voting, it would be strange for there to be an Eonwe-Legate pack.

And just now, I wonder if I've found a reason for why Legate took back his vague suspicion of Eonwe later in the Day. The post after Legate gave those suspicions was the one where I decided that an Eonwe-Legate pack would be unlikely. Thinlomien later said that was fair reasoning. Possibly, Legate wanted to back away from laying the groundwork for an Eonwe lynch right then. Might be true, might not. I'm a bit too sleepy to be able to look at this clearly right now so I'm not sure.

But before I go, while looking at one of Legate's last bunch of posts, this stood out to me a bit:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Lommy - her thought processes seem similar to mine Now I wonder if I should be worried, but I can't imagine her mentioning that being e.g. a trick aimed only at me to lull me into trusting her or something similarly unlikely. So only in case you found my dead body toMorrow, then perhaps she should be looked at. On a bit more serious note, I really don't see anything suspicious about her so far, she seems to try to make an effort and not really sounding in any way false or anything.

That bit at the start there looks as if it could be a wolf trying to contact someone he thinks is the Cobbler.

And now I'm barely awake and have got to get some sleep. Since I didn't get very far in that analysis, does anyone else want to pick somebody or two and do some analysis of the possibility of them being in a pack with Legate? I'll try to do more when I wake up in the morning, anyway, it's just that at this rate I won't be able to get it done for everyone by the end of the Day.

[Inziladun]

Well, it's nice to see a gamble pay off with a wolf-lynch. It's a little disquieting though that G55 is still with us. Would she not have been a tempting target as a potential Seer? Still, maybe the Ranger was a deterrent.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I think that at this stage of the game, the wolf isn't in a position where they can afford to kill people off just in order to cause disorder or remove people whom others might not suspect much. I can only assume that they killed Nerwen because they thought she was the Seer. It makes no sense for them to be trying to target anyone else when the wolf is in such a weak position.

I would agree that there should have been a good reason. I don't at the moment recall her strongly suspecting anyone, or doing anything particularly Seerish. She didn't vote Day 1, and her late vote for Legate yesterDay was a non-factor in his lynch.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I was talking more about the way G55 seemed to be specifically, deliberately talking to Legate, actually.

Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?

I haven't really gotten that far in my in-depth read, Inzil, I'm still on page 5. Half a mo' -

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, got it, you're talking about G55 at #196 where she votes Legate. Hmm. In that case I might buy that G55 was pretending to be a Cobbler hinting at someone she thought was a wolf. I'll need to read the rest, though.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Then why would Cobbler55 throw Legwolf under the bus now?

If G55's story is true: she was trying to look like the Seer on Day 1, so that the wolves would target her. But since the Ranger made a save, she changed her tactics and tried to look like a Cobbler and cozy up to Legate. She did talk about her suspicions lessening, and that post replying to Legate looked like her sending a "yep, I'm right here with you" signal - that she's the Cobbler who's ID'd a wolf. But then, she got frustrated and realised her scheme wasn't working, and revealed it all.

Edit: cross-posted since my last post.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Inzil at #161 -

Originally Posted by Inzil

On the minus side, I tend to be suspicious of people who make a point of saying "Let's get those wolves!", as if to spotlight their innocence.

Several people have evidenced that sentiment, Inzil. Why is Cop the only one you've mentioned thus far?

Nerwen at #164 -

Originally Posted by my own dear one

My own problem with #177 is that it takes such a very long time to make a few, very obvious points that could have been made in a few lines.

I think wordiness may just be a facet of Cop's character. See - Legate in every post ever.

Lommy at #173 - overly notices the minor altercation between the moon in splendour and Cop, but doesn't mention anything about it. Huh.

She also considers G55 to be "fishy". Lommy is another person that's apparently thinking about a Inzil/McCaber pack.

Inzil at #174 - this is the post I agreed with re: G55 and the nightkill.

G55 at #189 - Legate and Lommy aren't "in cahoots". Why?

Cop at #192 - I'm fairly certain the beauteous northern star has already mentioned this, but it stands out to me as well - there's not really a lot G55 can stay to this question.

McCaber at #194 - rescinds his accusation of G55. It's interesting to note that this is just after what I would consider the start of G55's "flailing stage". Rather opportune, that.

G55 at #195 - very interesting post. I feel as though either G55 is a very clever Ordo, or a Cobbler being a Cobbler. This is definitely some food for thought, and with so little time to deal with it, I'll have to come back to it.

my light at #198 - Ah, there's the post I was talking about re: Cop asking G55 to answer about her behavior.

Cutting this off at the top of Page 6, to get it out on-thread.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

G55 at #189 - Legate and Lommy aren't "in cahoots". Why?

They are too "agreeable" with each other. Now, perhaps Lommy is the cobbler and Legate is the wolf, but I don't think that they are wolves together.

EDIT: xed since Shasta's quote

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul

If G55 is the cobbler 159 seems to say "Nthing to see here mve along move along" Now of course the cobbler doesn't know the wolves but 159 seems to protect Copper

No, I believe my heart means her words to Legate in that same post: "I get you. *nods* I get you..." etc.

EDIT:X'd since Morsul at #230.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Although, as I read... if we assume G55 = cobbler, what does her #159 look like to anyone still around? Because to me, a quote of Rikae's seems appropriate -

"Roger, wolf tower."

Yes. That one does seem that way. The "But I must say, I will consider the points you bring up, Legate." is strange and I can't really account for it other than G55 deliberately sending a sign of support to Legate.

And...now I really have to vote.

++Legate

Edit: cross-posted since my last post.