WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Boromir88]

Took a nap and this Day 2 stuff is getting tedious to go through. Will post the analysis on everyone I have, keep in mind it is mostly with the Day 1 action in mind, with some of the Day 2 discussion added in:

Cop:

Makes a vote for me that several pointed out being suspicious over. Mostly it seemed like a safe throwaway vote for Day 1 and reasoned purely as an unexplained gut-feeling. Nog doesn’t understand where the idea came from that Cop’s vote wasn’t random, but that came from Cop herself who in #58 said it was either cast a vote for me, a random vote, or abstain from voting, so she decided the first option. It had the look of a random vote but Cop was quite clear not to interpret it as random, but as having a bad gut-feeling. I still don’t like the vote, but it could just be revengeful feelings and you have to consider Pom’s vote Day 1.

Pom would have known there was significant suspicion building against Cop, especially after that string of post #92-94, all pointing out unease about Cop. Pom’s vote was opportunistic, which means she probably wasn’t trying to bus one of her mates. Pom’s post after seeing McCaber’s vote, looks like a wizard who tried to have it both ways. Someone who herself was jumping at the opportunistic lynch, but also trying to make herself look innocent by advising us to watch the Cop voters. Pom’s reaction just doesn’t fit with the interpretation of Cop also being a wizard.

Gil:

Not much more to add than what I already said before, looks jumpy about anything he says seems to be getting turned on him. But agree with sally in #96, don’t see why a Gilwizer would “lay it on so thick” with the victim act.

Inzil:

Nothing looks remotely off about Zil, and I don’t say this to mean he looks too clean, but someone who normally has a good grasp on Zil’s alignment. As a baddie Zil is the master of double-talk and non-committal. Post 23 looks particularly innocent when he responds to Morsul that Pom’s statement (“And as little information as trolling around gives us, saying nothing gives us even less.”) was sensible enough but looked like a generic Day 1 comment. Zil’s bussed packmates before, but I have a hard time seeing he’d put attention on a Pomwizer and bus her Day 1.

Kath:

Nothing of note, other than we can say Morsul seeing a cobbler-hint was indeed a grasp at straws.

Lottie:

Looks about as good as Zil. The differences being Late in Day 1 she’s left her options open. In #121 states she feels good about Greenie, Rikae and Bane, her only listed suspect is Pom. I say it leaves her options open because none of the ones she feels as innocent in 121 were in danger of being lynched. Then in #131 says she disagrees with the “waves of suspicion” against Gil. Copper, and McCaber, and thus votes Pom. Since Lottie had made no statement about those 3 earlier, she had her options open, and could have been a mate bussing Pom since she previously stated suspicions against Pom.

The question remains if Lottie’s a wizard, she clearly left her options open, saw there were 3 other choices, so why state dislike for the waves of suspicion that happened against Gil, Copper, and McCaber, why push Pom to the lynch at all? There was no need for a wizard in Lottie’s situation to vote for a packmate there.

McCaber:

The stand out point seems to be Day 1 he voted a few hours before the DL but still stayed around for the discussion. This caused some exchanges between him, Greenie, and Nog.

#116 McCaber explains his reasons:

I had suspicions and didn't feel like waiting until the last 10 minutes of the Night to get them hashed out. I don't like last-minute surprises.

I forgot to point this out earlier, but Greenie’s response to this does not look good to me:

Fair enough - although unless I'm mistaken, it's still over an hour until deadline. For myself, I'm seldom so sure on Day 1 that I'd feel ready to make a decision with that long still to go (provided that I was around until DL, anyway), especially since quite a lot tends to happen during the last two hours.

She says “fair enough” which I take to be an acceptance of “to each their own, I do this differently but OK.” Despite seemingly accepting McCaber’s explanation, she still puts a negative interpretation that it is still over an hour until the DL, and she wouldn’t make a decision that early if she was around until the DL. If Greenie’s doesn’t look good, Nog’s just looks bad:

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

Granted I don’t vote as early as McCaber before the DL if I know I’m staying around, but I have done the same. If I’m sure my opinion isn’t going to change I don’t see a point in holding it for a last minute fury at the DL simply because I will still be around until the DL. I try more to give a person a chance to respond to suspicions if they’ve left for the day, but if I’m sure nothing will look more suspicious than someone making a bad-looking Day 1 vote why bother holding it to the end? Nogrod tries to cast it as suspicious behavior, which I don't understand why it is suspicious?

Morsul:

What I said here -

Morsul's is less buthersom, cuz we see a clear line of logic...er logical amongst troll herds...mmm herds need shepp'erds shepp'erds are some fine dining. Umm oh, Morsul's vote. I wouldn't vote for Kath based on his reasons, but his early vote dispalys his mind and what he's thinking clear enough. It's reasonin' we can track, if you follow me, and not gut-feelings.
…
Boils down to we know what Morsul's thinking with his early vote. Can't tell what Cop is.

Nerwen:

Aggressively pursues Gil, but her reasons are understandable. Gil gave her a 2nd vote early on for a bad reason. Doesn’t vote, a staple of Nerwen except the infamously cursed game where she voted Day 1 and it seemed a mass illness spread through the entire village.

Nogrod:

Does chalk up his non-committal attitude for most of the day as having very little time, ok I can see that. More of a red flag though is what I stated in the McCaber analysis…trying to frame the behavior that voting early while still being around after the vote is suspicious, that’s really a stretch and I don’t see why it should be interpreted as suspicious, just McCaber having a different approach. Now, we also know his vote for McCaber and strange “So it is Pom” was not made by the cobbler. Given that many seem to be of the opinion “don’t worry about the cobbler, get the wizards, I wouldn’t put it past a wizard-Nogrod to actually look like the cobbler, knowing there would be reluctance to voting for someone appearing to be a cobbler. As it stands though, Nog can no longer go through with that plan, if indeed he is a wizard acting cobbler. (Needs to check Nog's Day 2 posts to see if this "act like the cobbler because people are generally less gun-ho about lynching the cobbler" theory holds water).

Rikae:

Leaning innocent, later in the Day involved in much of the action. States unease about Cop’s recap of the banter, but also quick to point out doesn’t like Pom and McCaber’s jump at voting for Cop. #119 and #120 are interesting, she says Greenie is being too agreeable for a troll, but recanted in 120 because Greenie brings up points against McCaber. Now, in Day 2 McCaber says it seems Rikae was turning the focus away from Pom and onto him, yet as I said earlier, Greenie had been doing the same thing. Greenie is then quick to confirm this is a shrewd point in McCaber’s favor.

sally:

Lots of banter, but her end of the day actions are as green as can be. Looks like a wise sally voting wisely.

Shasta:

The clinching vote for Pom, Shasta will bus teammates if it makes him look better, but a wizard-Shasta at this point had no need to make himself look particularly good. He wasn’t going to get lynched, no one stated suspicions against him. He’s not one to just backstab a mate when there was no immediate need to make himself look innocent.

Volo:

He’s all over the place with McCaber (add now knowing he’s the cobbler, it makes more sense) from testing him in #55, saying in #132 McCaber is more on the “naughty side” and then suddenly #137 votes Nerwen to now “save McCaber.”

Looking at the first several posts today...it needs to be said Volo is the cobbler, and while it is only logical he was killed because the wizards thought he was the seer, it doesn’t change the fact that Volo was making statements to confuse, mislead, and go around in circles. So, while it’s reasonable to speculate “wizards were gunning for the seer,” Volo’s posts were designed entirely with the intent to confuse us, therefore what he actually said needs to be looked at with a grain of salt, not stressed that it somehow contains traceable info because the wizards possibly thought he was the seer.

Also, I've so far left out my Ozban analysis, because considering this drive for people to find seer hints in Volo's posting. The fact remains Ozban was a lynched ordo. His conclusions may be wrong, but it's the intent behind his posting and reason we can now trust as innocent. We know he was posting with innocent intentions...Volo wasn't. Period. I want to go through all of Ozban's posts to see if any conclusions can be made, there is value to knowing we can trust Ozban's intentions behind his posts. Can't trust Volo's.

Edit: crossed with Rikae, Nerwen, Brinn several times...umm what is going on?

[McCaber]

Huh. As much as I feel Rikae delenda est, I think this sort of behavior we see from her is not what a wolf Rikae would be doing in that situation. And this leaves me rather conflicted.

I guess today's vote won't be so easy as yesterdays was for me. I will need to look further.

[Nerwen]

Before this goes any further: I do know all about Rikae's history of self-voting, hence my reply to her. When, however, she confessed– or as it may be, "confessed"– I took it to mean she was a wolf who had initially meant to fight it out, but on closer reading had decided there was too much against her, and too much risk of her comrades implicating themselves by trying to save her.

As I said: if she's innocent it was certainly very unhelpful of her at this point.

[A Little Green]

First off - so sorry for not voting yesterDay! It's embarrassing, really; I thought I'd vote after taking a shower, then when I got back I somehow thought I had already voted and went to bed. Just for the record, though, my vote would have been for Morsul or McCaber, probably Morsul since he seemed more likely to get lynched. (If I'm not mistaken, he would have been if I had not forgotten to vote. Bah.)

Originally Posted by Kath

McCaber being the first ... may have felt like a safe vote but then would Pom have followed that vote up if McCaber were a wolf? But that phrase 'suspicion-mongering' from McCaber I still don't like.

The thing is, Pom and McCaber cross-posted I believe, so she didn't think she was following anyone up.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I still think Volo's vote the least suspicious among he, Nog and Boro. Now he has two votes, one of them Gil. Interestingly, Gil also was the second vote for Nerwen YesterNight. As part of his reasoning for voting Volo, he cites the latter's "bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee". When he himself voted for Nerwen?

Interesting observation. Makes my brain hurt, though.

Originally Posted by Boro

This is why she remains “somewhat suspicious of McCaber”…(My note of interest here: Considering Greenie voted for McCaber and gave 3 reasons for it, albeit Day 1, and one of those a “gut-feeling” it still had the appearance of about as reasoned as a vote as one might expect for Day 1. I’m not sure what changed…I would think she would still remain highly suspicious about the fact that McCaber made an opportunistic looking vote and not attempt to slowly back away from the suspicion if it were earnest suspicions. This does raise the first big wizardly flags, because after trying to steer the focus onto McCaber the previous Day, given that Pomwizer was lynched, it seems Greenie wants to now drop the case). She brings up we may be over interpreting Pom’s peculiar statement, which makes it seem like she doesn’t want anyone going back to look at her posts trying to put focus onto McCaber’s vote and not Pom’s. Too bad, I have.

Definitely suspicious of Greenie’s actions. In #222 Greenie makes a sudden turn to feeling good about McCaber saying he made a "shrewd point" that Rikae was trying to turn focus on him and away from Pom. When interestly enough, Greenie was doing the same, she gave reasoned defenses for Pom’s post in #110, while also putting the focus on McCaber’s opportunistic looking vote.

I do still suspect McCaber. I just don't want to pursue it blindly; I've done that before, usually on innocents. I suspect him, but at the same time he makes points I agree with, which leaves me confused. I don't know anything, so I get second thoughts about every idea I have. Simple as that.

As for why I pursued him instead of Pom - he seemed to me the more suspicious of the two, mainly because I had also other reasons to suspect him than just the vote. I'm not sure it's justified to say I defended Pom, though. I just said it was possible her "Keep an eye on the Cop voters" was a joke, and that I found McCaber more suspicious than her.

Originally Posted by Nog

He had to get something right (or if not, then we all have been totally blind and the rest of the wolves have been receiving no attention at all as there would be no better candidates for being the seer for them but Volo with nothing correct in his thoughts...).

As for this, I've no idea what this means.
Nog brings up an interesting theory about the Wizers having thought Volo was the Seer; I agree that it's the only way the Volo kill makes any sense. He seemed a likely lynchee for toDay, as Cop pointed out, and created a lot of confusion, too (which we now know he did on purpose).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Confused by this, Nog That first paragraph seems to be describing a scenario of Rikae as the supposed Night 1 dream- then you say it wouldn't work as she couldn't be the Night 2 dream.

I wondered about the same. Nog, can you clarify?

Originally Posted by Brinn

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

That is actually a very clever point; almost too clever. It's true that the Wizers might want to be rid of players so uniformly considered innocent, but then again, they'd probably want to get rid of the Seer first. (It's also possible they tried one of the two on Night 2 and the ranger blocked it.) Something about this post rubs me the wrong way though; it could be something planned overNight, a strategy to incriminate Sally and Shasta by keeping them alive, and Brinn started it off a bit eagerly? I simply don't know, but it got me thinking for sure.

And now Rikae went and self-voted and called herself a wolf. Really not very helpful if she's innocent. Then again, also not helpful if she's a Wizer, so I'm mostly confused.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, who makes sense.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

As for this, I've no idea what this means.

I think it means: "If the wolves did kill Volo as a suspected Seer, it follows that some of his statements about guilt/innocence must be correct, else some other player who did get it right would have looked like a better candidate. The only alternative is that everyone else has been wrong too."

But hey, he's your father...

[Morsul the Dark]

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

But I'll start looking for the other two wizards and....

++Rikae

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

Hm. That's actually possible, but if so, she'd better hope she's right.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well. I can't for thelife of me think why an innocent selfvoting would be helpful. (unless she's purseholder and is convinced she has a wizard.)

It rests with the belief "I'm innocent, but I'm too much of a distraction so best to just lynch me and be done with it." I'm the same way in that my basic principles as an ordo are Don't do the wizards' job and lynch your gifteds. Be lynch fodder if I must because in the grand scheme of things an ordo lynch isn't nearly as devastating as a gifted death.

1. It would show the non-wizards I had innocent motivations and therefor possibly lead to the real bad folks.

2. Keeps the gifteds alive longer, which is the true bane of any pack.

Rikae is trying to spare/protect someone or another...

Whether that be spare the innocents from a distraction when she's too frustrated and doesn't have the time to defend herself. Feeling that as long as she's still alive she would be a distraction. I don't think a hunter-Rikae would do this, given the odds, I think she would fight for her innocence harder, not throw it in simply after Nog and Nerwen are looking at wizards suspected Volo as the seer theory.

Or she is indeed a wizard and wants to quickly stop her 2 other mates from trying to save her. To try to give them a restart considering how badly their night kills have turned out. It puts those two in a bigger uphill battle, but considering they still don't have a gifted, I would expect at least an attempt fake reveal (if Rikae was a wizard) to draw out one of them and make it easier on the other two if she's going sacrificial.

Edit: crossed with Rikae

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.

Well, we know one of them was innocent. About Morsul, I would have thought him a more likely Traitor than Volo, but that's out the window now.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually, there are four players in danger of modfire toDay, so that's not really very helpful, Rikae. And if you're innocent and the intent was really to frame you– which I don't think anyone has ruled out– well, all right, but you can't expect us not to look into it, can you?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nope, you caught me, Nerwen. I knew I was a goner when I saw Volo's obvious seer hints, and even more so when I blundered and started a bandwagon against an innocent, encouraged it right up to the deadline and then obviously backpedaled! It's been a long time, and I'm a rusty wolf, what can I say. My fellow wizards and I thought it was best for them to throw me under the bus and make themselves look innocent. For the good of the pack!

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.

x/d with Morsul- C'mon. Really?

[Nerwen]

The Ozwagon
Important note: many quotes are from much longer posts, often ones in which a large number of other players are mentioned.

#163

Originally Posted by Gil

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

#187

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

#196. Nerwen votes Nogrod.


#200. Ozban votes Morsul.


#210.
McCaber votes Rikae


#213.
Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at ##187.) Adds "I'm still wary of Oz, but I'd like to hear more from him."


#202

Originally Posted by Greenie

Right now I feel the worst about Morsul, Nog, and Cab. I doubt all three are evil, though. Morsul and Cab would be a weird pair, as would Cab and Nog. And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

#203 (marked "x'd with Greenie")

Originally Posted by Brinn

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

#204. Greenie quotes #203, #204, adds eyeroll.


#206

Originally Posted by Greenie

In all seriousness, though, I'm not sure what to think of Ozban's analysis of Morsul. While I agree with pretty much every point he makes, he seems to make the points with an assumption that Morsul is evil. It's as if he has decided the outcome already before doing the analysis. Then again, I've seen innocents get fixated in that way too, so I don't know.

#207.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. (...) Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

#208.

Originally Posted by Zil

Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

#213. Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at #187.)


#216. Lottie votes Morsul (2)

#220. Gil votes Volo


#228.Rikae votes Ozban

Originally Posted by Rikae

What is the point of Oz's #142, I wonder? Points out who is tied (Cab, Cop, Nerve and Pom) and " I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet". Well, yeah. Something seems fishy here. It's like he's trying to draw someone's attention to the need for a certain vote.

Now, today, Oz comes in with a case against Morsul based entirely on yesterday's posts. Almost as if he, oh, wrote it during the night, not thinking that the night's events, or today's posts, would give him any new information.
Quote:

Then he votes - a fairly safe vote if I'm not mistaken.

#229.

Originally Posted by Copper

And then there's Ozban, whom I somehow seem to have forgotten about almost entirely until now. Epic failure on my part, how could I do that...

#230

Originally Posted by Kath

Ozban --> McCaber 3 (opportunistic vote and not contributing much
(...)
Ozban posted a very useless 'suspicion' list. I mean, there were plenty of unhelpful recapping posts where all they showed were literally shortened version of what was said with no analysis so this at least was better, but it just went 'everyone is suspicious'. Non-committal. Does come out with own thoughts later.

#231.
Copper posts analysis of Ozban, finding him to be excessively cagey and his votes to be "sudden". Is considering voting him, along with Volo and Morsul.


#235.

Originally Posted by Zil

I could vote for Ozban too though. The Morsul vote toNight looks rather fabricated. Coupled with his putting Cab in the lead yesterNight doesn't help him look any better.

#237. Zil votes Ozban (2)

Originally Posted by Zil

After quick deliberation, Gil may be acting too careless for a Wizard. So...

++Ozban

and hope for the best.

#239. Kath votes Morsul (3)


#240. Morsul votes Ozban (3) (x'd since Zil at #237.)

Originally Posted by Morsul

++ Ozban

His vote for me seems to be picking up on other people's suspicion(Which I don't really get but can accept) Seems a little forced and coming from a conclusion first evidence later mentality. Wife's using computer so won't be back before DL.

#241.
Copper votes Ozban (4) (Does not give reason in this post, but see #231. Vote is a tiebreaker.)


#242.

Originally Posted by Sally

I can understand the concern about Oz, but I honestly don't have the time to go back and look at all of his posts, so I'll have to ignore him for the moment.

Originally Posted by Rikae

And doubleposting, but: Cop, why Oz over Morsul? Give us something to gnaw on.

#248.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, Oz doesn't have that many posts to look at. For your convenience:

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/search....archid=3767928

#251. (answering Rikae.)

Originally Posted by Copper

I think that Morsul's turn of phrase might well be something an innocent could say. Morsul doesn't word things extremely carefully and can be a bit sloppy. Aside from that remark, there are things which worry me, but I'm not confident enough in those to vote for him.

The real decision was Ozban over Volo, and to be honest I'm not at all sure I've made the right choice, given the amount of strange things Volo said. The reason I went for Ozban is because of the quick vote placement with no warning, few posts, and because it's likely that a wizard would attack another candidate rather than defend a fellow wizard.

#252.

Originally Posted by Nog

Oz seems a bit suspicious (I looked at a few posts form late D1 and some of toDay), but how much of it is not being used to this game and how much genuine suspiciousness?

#254.

Of the ones with votes (and possible meaningful votes for us two) I might say Oz is a better pick than Morsul or Volo. But none seems especially innocent or suspicious either for me

.


#256.

Originally Posted by Sally

I don't have a problem with voting Oz, really, but Volo and Morsul are still highly suspicious for me.

Assuming it is just us, Volo would be a ridiculous move, as we'd only tie him with Oz and Oz would still die. Thus, unless someone else shows up, our options seem to be Oz and Morsul.

#258.

Originally Posted by Nog

I tired to look also at who had voted for whom (so whether someone's votes were given by shadier or more trustworthy people in this game on my mind) - and only found both main "camps" (Morsul voters and Oz voters) looking too suspicious...

#260.

Originally Posted by Sally

I really feel like an Oz vote from me would not be well-informed, at least enough to be comfortable. Morsul made that arguable slip about McCaber and then revenge voted Oz when he was suddenly in the lead. I'd say that's pretty shifty.

#261.

Originally Posted by Volo

Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.

#262.

Originally Posted by Nog

So which one would you suggest: Oz or Morsul?

I could go with either (there's reason for both picks).

Oz is a relative newcomer and might earn a go for it but Morsul could be just his normal...

#263.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oooo! Also, if Morsul is a wizard, his choosing to vote Oz over Volo would make the third lad look very bad as well.

#264. Volo votes Ozban (5) The kill-vote.


#265. Nog votes Morsul (4)


#266. Sally votes Morsul (5) (x'd with Nog and Volo's votes.)

#268. (x'd since #263)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Part of my reason for voting for Oz has evaporated (part I didn't mention) but I still see reason to vote for him, at least more so than Morsul.

Sally (#260) calls Morsul's vote for Ozban "revenge", but in more practical term he was likely voting to save himself- which tells us nothing either way. Of the other voters, Cop is (to use her own expression) very "sudden"– 2 posts earlier she had forgotten all about him– while Rikae did a good deal to encourage suspicion against Ozban early on then– in her own words– "backpedalled".

Now, having tested out as Legolas on one of those personality quizzes, it should surprise nobody when I point out that the only other unknown in any danger whatever was Morsul. Thus, the Oz-votes are highly significant if he is, in fact, a wolf– if not, not, as the wolves wouldn't need to be very active in steering the lynch otherwise.

EDIT:X'd with two Zils.; saw Morsul's vote just before posting.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.

I have already explained why I voted her– here: #309. It may have been precipitous, but it was honest.

[A Little Green]

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one. The only way they could be sure of Rikae not being the Purseholder would be if Rikae was one of them, in which case voting for her would seem, at least to me, a seriously bad move. There is still the possibility of Rikae being a wolf and just not in cahoots with Morsul, but I, like Brinn, originally read her "confession" as sarcasm. An overreaction, yes, but RL stress is RL stress (hugs to Rikae, hope you're all right).

[Rikae]

I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold. Volo did a good job, basically. The trouble is, Nog goes on these crusades as an innocent, and he also is good enough to imitate them as a baddie, so I can't even say anything about him.
I don't feel like I can say anything about Nerwen, either. Could have honestly taken my post literally, could have jumped at the chance to make a very safe vote. Shouldn't have given her that chance. I also had to go check the rules again and see votes are not retractable, so I've created even more of a mess.

At any rate, I have difficulty seeing why the "Volo was a suspected seer" thing is taken for granted so. Greenie says it's the only explanation that makes sense, which is way out there: as far as I'm concerned, Volo was flying under the radar pretty well until now and his one trail was a convenient one for the wolves. He creates confusion, but so does Gil, so does Kath (really, the wizard of OZ and you aren't a cobbler, Kath?), and if the remaining wolves aren't under much pressure they wouldn't be too worried about that.

Also: not the purseholder, just an ordo.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm sorry for being unhelpful, guys. It was three am my time, and I wasn't thinking too clearly. All I saw was Nog going on one of his usual crusades, acting as though everything pointed toward his preconceived suspicion, and having dealt with those before I couldn't stomach the idea of doing so again.
It seemed to me pretty obvious that his case didn't make much sense; I've been a wolf enough times to know that it's rare you kill for a suspected seer, and when you have one that points to a wizard, that's a touchy situation, while a relatively quiet player who points seerishly to an innocent is gold.

And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Copper

Now we really have to wonder why they might have picked Volo. There's nothing obvious at first thought...One would usually guess they must have had reason to think he's the Seer, but bearing in mind that this is a big game with 3 remaining wizzards, there's always a possibility of it being some A-grade misdirection.
…
Volo had been under such a lot of suspicion yesterDay. I'd have expected them to leave him in as a potential lynch-ee toDay.

Aka. they thought it was more important for them to kill him than let him stay as a potential lynchee. So the idea they thought him the seer sounds most probable. And that’s why I concentrated on that aspect in the early hours of the Day.

Originally Posted by McCaber

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

I don’t think Volo’s first post would have been what made the case for Volo to be picked as it would have been outrageously clumsy from the real seer. So I’m quite drawn to a conclusion there was something in his suspicions that over-rode the Wizards’ possible wariness about that first post (which still could have been the first reason they got the idea about Volo being the seer).

Nerwen: what I meant with the problem of two dreams on N2 was exactly that: that it would have been impossible for the seer to dream both you and Rikae on the same Night – and if one was to think the seer had dreamt of you both it looked more probable it was N2 than N1 (Volo changed his view on you Nerwen considerably after N2 but also went after Rikae much more strongly on D2 – the problem being that he wasn’t that forthcoming on D1 with Rikae). But my conclusions on that whole problem anyway was that I think of you Nerwen as more likely innocent and Rikae more likely a Wizard based on what the Wizards could have thought about you two in relation to Volo (if I didn’t make that clear enough).

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Most votes went to Oz and Morsul. I wondering if maybe both these candidates were innocent. While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious.

Exactly my thoughts (like I said already yesterDay). It felt like the wolves were leaning back and seeing the voting going the way they were comfortable with.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Apparently I'm suspicious now because the wolves thought that Volo was a seer and he suspected me (did he? I didn't notice) - you'll find any reason to suspect me now that you've made up your mind to do so. Same old, same old.

Well no. Or a partial ”yes” for the first sentence (not a total acceptance as I’m not sure whether the Wizards thought of Volo as the seer – but it seems thus far the likeliest explanation). But other than that, I have not made up my mind (even if it’s close) – and I have no wish to find out reasons to help lynching a certain person just because… (and talking about you especially, well actually it would be very nice to play with you for a long time). But I wish to get the Wizards lynched, whoever they are, and thus far the scenario where they killed Volo because they thoguht him the seer looks the most believable – and the only person it seems to point seems to be you.

But yes, maybe I have not considered all the things or have missed something. I do look forwards to be corrected – and will change my mind immediately when shown why what I think is not plausible.


Rikae… Noooooooo!!!!
Not again, please. (referring to her self-vote, that is)

Okay. I need to go back preparing the dinner for us – and I’m seriously lagging behind (only gotten to where Rikae voted herself) so forgive me if I have been talkng about things that have been somehow radically changed by this time. Back later…

[A Little Green]

As usual, not quoting everything as that would be insane. My comments in italics

DAY 1

Frustration with banter

Pom, McCaber, and Morsul get points for the effort of trying to post substance; hates Day 1s because they are the easiest for a wolf to hide in; says she doesn't object to banter in general but that it's a problem if it gets out of hand

Originally Posted by Brinn

So far I'm feeling good about Rikae. She seems the most genuine at least. Pom seems okay as well, for now.

I don't like Copper's vote because Boro has hardly said anything and I don't know how she can get a gut feeling about him based on those posts. I'd hold off on voting her toDay though, because I haven't played with Copper before and don't know her playing style.

Morsul votes Kath based on some weak cobbler suspicions. But wouldn't it be better to vote for a suspected wizard? But I'll let it pass, since in his defense there is so little to go on right now.

I don't like all of Sally's bantering, but then again it is Sally.

My vote toDay will be:

++Nerwen

While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far. By suspicious, I refer to excessive bantering combined with picking up on comments that she could later use as reasons for an easy lynch (like Morsul's comment on Kath). I realize it's weak reasoning, but there's really not much else to go on and I do generally tend to be pretty wary about Nerwen anyway.

Not overly fond of this vote, but it was early on in the Day and quite little had happened, so I'm willing to give it a pass. Also, this makes me doubt that both Rikae and Brinn are wolves, as I don't think an otherwise careful Brinnard would cheerfully point to two of her three fellows as innocentish in a Day 1 post.

DAY 2

Comments on Nerwen's speculation of why Pom panicked after her vote; thinks the likeliest scenario is

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)

Originally Posted by Brinn

As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.

Kind of obvious but makes sense.

Writes a list; I'm quoting it in full regardless of the length, sorry for that, but it seemed like the best choice.

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Morsul: Voted for Kath. His vote was early when there was little substance, so I won't hold it against him. When coming to conclusions, I find his logic rather odd, but I think it's really just his playing style which tells us nothing of his role.

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

McCaber: Voted for Copper. His vote actually didn't stand out as very suspicious to me. But I can see why some might be suspicious because he could've been seen as a baddie trying to get away with an easy vote against someone who was already gathering some attention for her poor reasoning behind her vote. Plus, I agree he voted a bit premature. Due to that statement Pom made after his vote, I think I'm leaning toward him being more innocent than not.

Gil: Voted for Nerwen. Okay, his vote had poor reasoning behind it and I can understand why others find it and his defensive behavior following suspicious. But like Morsul, his playing style does have a habit of looking suspicious regardless of his role.

Inzil: Voted for Pom. His vote might've been the safest, were he a baddie. But again, I think it less likely that there were wolf-on-wolf votes at this stage. And anyway, his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious.

Nogrod: Voted for McCaber. His careful and non-committed suspicion of Pom is worrying. Based on his posts, it seemed to make more sense that he would vote for her. But then he votes for McCaber while at the same time agreeing that Pom was a good lynch choice. The only thing is that if he did believe the lynch had already been decided, I think it would be safer for a baddie to vote for a packmate. Unless an evil Nogrod truly thought another player would swoop in and vote McCaber and he could save Pom. While that was a possibility, Bane was the only non-voter around at the time, it looked like he was planning to vote Pom, which would've sealed the deal...all the more reason it'd be safer for a baddie to vote a packmate at that point. I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch.

Rikae: Voted for McCaber. Her reasoning behind her vote looks genuine to me. From her posts, I like that her opinions are formed by her own impressions. Meaning that she thinks for herself and her thoughts aren't at all influenced by others' opinions, which makes me feel good about her right now.

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur. A bit suspicious to me.

Boromir: Voted for Copper. His thought process leading up to his vote seems quite reasonable to me. So far, I don't see any reason to suspect him.

Copper: Voted for Boromir. Would Pom vote for a fellow mate? It's always possible, but I do doubt it. So she's looking more likely to be innocent to me.

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

Loslote: Voted for Pom. I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.

Bane: No vote. He was around less than ten minutes until deadline, then disappeared. Any reason why? His suspicion of Pom could speak in his favor, but then not actually following through with a vote does not. I'd like to hear from him.

Greenie: Voted for McCaber. I think she's the only McCaber voter who had some reservations about him from an earlier post (before his vote). Based on her reasoning and interactions with McCaber, her vote does look like an honest one to me. So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side.

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

Shasta: Voted for Pom. He hardly posted, but his vote which put our baddie in the lead makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent.

What struck me was that she is being extremely careful, almost too diplomatic; there is a but in almost every paragraph. Might just be undecided ordo (I can symphatize with that!) but somehow the tone is measured rather than confused.

Says defensiveness isn't necessarily suspicious; forgot the cobbler when doing her list, agrees with the suggestion that Nog might be one.

Another list:

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

This makes me feel better; not as noncommittal as the previous list.

Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

Again a lot of buts here.

Nog looks better; explains her change of opinion about Nerwen:

I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.

Votes for Volo; still wary of Oz, but wants to hear more from him


DAY 3

Speculates about the Volo kill, doesn't really add anything new

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

I already speculated about this before; something rubs me the wrong way here, though at the same time it's a sensible point to make. Gah.

If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.

This seems a bit weird - speculating long about Volo's death, then saying it might be wiser to talk about something else.

Wonders whether Morsul and Oz weren't both innocent since she doesn't find Morsul all that suspicious

Thinks Morsul's ”innocent Cab” -comment is likely hypothetical and if it really is, would not be surprised to find a Wizer among those who pursued it; thinks Morsul's point against Lottie was indeed flimsy but not necessarily Wizard-like

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

I agree with this, but it tells little about Brinn's alignment as long as we don't know Rikae's. I'd say that if Rikae is evil then Brinn looks bad too, but Rikae's innocence wouldn't tell us anything about Brinn. If that makes sense. Then again, that Day 1 post makes me think it unlikely that they are fellows, so I don't know what to think. Helpful, I know.


CONCLUSIONS?

What stood out to me was that Brinn is playing really careful. It could go either way - a Wizard playing it safe by being diplomatic and leaving both ends open, so to speak, or an innocent who sees something for and against each argument and thus has a hard time being of any opinion. Oh my. That latter option sounds like what I'm doing in this particular post, actually! Anyhow, I'm not sure this analysis helped me form an opinion on Brinn's alignment, but at least I have an idea what she's said and done, which can be counted as progress.

Sorry. Not my shrewdest day toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Brinn, Nerwen, and Nog

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.

You should know me well enough by now to know you won't get me provoked into a fight by talking to me that way, so you might as well not. I have a reason not to talk about this right now, but I promise answers later. I hope that's OK with you.

[Morsul the Dark]

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And this has me wondering about you again, Rikae. I was coming around to thinking I'd jumped in much too fast with that vote, since everybody else seems to think it was "obviously" mere sarcasm. But what you are saying here... wolves rarely try for the Seer? They'd rather frame innocents than get the real Seer?

This. Is. Not. True. It just isn't.

In fact, I'll tell you what wolves usually do when they think they've found the Seer, and that Seer has fingered one of them. They jump in and kill that person, bus the unlucky wolf if they were right about the kill being the Seer and (often) claim it was all a frame-up if they were wrong. Standard tactics. You know this, I know this, everybody with any experience knows this. Why are you basing an argument on this?

Not that it makes much sense for a villain to do this either- perhaps even less. I am just truly bewildered.

Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.

[Rikae]

"No trail" - or better yet, a false trail.

The only thing is, would Nog and/or Cop and/or Nerwen wizard be that obvious? Once I'm lynched, they're under scrutiny. Or won't they? Am I crazy? Does everyone really believe that every wolf-kill is of a suspected seer? Maybe I really know nothing about this game after all these years...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yes. The wolves rarely feel they have a good read on the seer, so they go for someone who is likely to leave no trail. You've been there and you know this.

I've been there and I know nothing of the kind. When I'm a wolf I try to eliminate gifteds, or failing that, players who seem generally dangerous. Some wolves do favour no-trail kills-though not you, as I recall- but no wolf with any sense *doesn't* look for the Seer. Again, this is all common knowledge, and whatever you are I just can't understand your motivations in saying otherwise.

I don't know how it is that I managed to miss the "extreme" suspicion toward Volo everyone speaks of, or indeed how I missed his "obvious" suspicion of me! But now Copper has come in and said everything Nog and Nerwen did, while claiming not to have read their posts. It must really be that glaringly obvious. Too bad it isn't true.

I on't know how you managed to miss all this either. And as I said- we were bound to speculate about the kill. That's just normal. You were completely overreacting.

EDIT: x'd since Rikae at #352.