WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Brinniel]

It was a hasty vote, Morsul. Considering there was discussion going on about the subject, you should've given your input, but held off on voting. Unless you weren't going to be around for the rest of the Day, which clearly you are.

[Brinniel]

Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Not everyone has shown up either. I don't believe we've heard from Kath or Gil. The prospect of Bane reappearing is starting to look bleak. And what's going on with Shasta? He's at risk for modfire too.

[satansaloser2005]

Ive just texted him and he says he is unlikely to return toDay because his Internet is still being wonky.

[Coppermirror]

Overall opinions

Boro: Doubt I'll be voting for him, for reasons given above. His explanation for the vote I was worried about wasn't bad, but doesn't remove all the suspicion about vote placement. I'm also curious to find out what Greenie says is bad about him. She will have to come up with something toMorrow.

Nog: also has suspicious vote placement on Day 1, and on Day 2 he thought Ozban was a better choice than Morsul (granted, I thought the latter too and so did some others). Was his post toDay one which placed undue suspicion on Rikae? Not especially. If made by a wolf,

Morsul: His vote for Rikae toDay looked hasty. There are still assorted things that I mentioned yesterDay which make me concerned bout him. On the other hand, I don't find the point many people focused on to be persuasive.

If Volo's death was for looking Seerish, his comment on Morsul looking genuine speaks in his favour. But if it wasn't, it might have been a tactic to throw off suspicion of Morsul, because of the perceived Morsul-Volo connection and Volo's statement of him as innocent. (Which...means that in reality, chances are the cobbler thought Morsul looked fishy and wizardy.)

McCaber: I'm a bit less suspicious of him toDay than I was yesterDay. Not a voting candidate at present.

Gil-Galad: He had some very suspicious logic yesterDay. It could be that he is a wizard relying upon people believing that random or illogical things are just part of his playing style, but that makes it hard to know whether or not he's guilty.

Gil voted Volo. There was good reason for an innocent to suspect Volo, and a lot of people did. It would also be a very safe vote for a wizard. (As were many votes that Day, unfortunately.)

I don't think I'll be making a Greenie vote toDay, but I will carefully consider all the information about her before the next Day and hope to have an opinion then. I also need to take a really good look at Nerwen, because so far I haven't been able to get a good feel for her behaviour.

I'm not currently concerned about: Loslote, Bane, Shasta, Inzil, Sally.
Brin I'm feeling more neutral about than I was yesterDay, and I'll want to look back on her posts in case there's something I've missed.

Rikae's behaviour toDay is a bit of a headache. It could be a wizardy confusion tactic, but I don't see why a wizard would be this desperate toDay. Especially since Rikae has a funeral to go to toDay, and that could up stress levels like anything, I'm inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she's an innocent ordo.

ToDay I'm considering voting for: Gil, Morsul, Nog. In no particular order.

Edit: formatting

[McCaber]

I'm being hastily pulled away and might not be back before DL, so I've got to go with my best candidate so far.

++ Morsul

[Coppermirror]

Votes so far toDay

Rikae -> Rikae
Nerwen -> Rikae (2)
Morsul -> Rikae (3)

McCaber -> Morsul

Yet to vote:

Bane - has he shown up toDay?
Boromir
Brinniel
Coppermirror
Gil
Greenie
Inzil
Kath - has she shown up toDay?
Loslote
Nogrod
Sally

Shasta - absent due to internet problems

I don't think people are wanting to lynch Rikae toDay, and because she already has three votes, we have to be very careful. There's only an hour left til deadline, right? If she's telling the truth, she's an ordo, but we still don't want to lynch her by accident.

[Gil-Galad]

Alright, I have some time, and reading toDay over, it has been a rather tense day. I don't like the Rikae self-sacrifice, and it does feel like votes are wasted on her. I understand, because last day I felt exactly like her with people twisting my words and making me feel frustrated.

I am ultimately uncertain on everyone, and the majority of todays focus has been talking about Rikae and Volo's potential seer-ness. I will hang around a little bit, but I am at a blank for who I want to confidently vote for as everyDay my views change.

[Coppermirror]

Votes so far

Rikae -> Rikae
Nerwen -> Rikae (2)
Morsul -> Rikae (3)
McCaber -> Morsul
Boromir -> Greenie
Lottie -> Nerwen
Gil -> Boro

Yet to vote:

Bane - haven't seen him toDay
Brinniel
Coppermirror
Greenie
Inzil
Kath
Nogrod
Sally

Shasta - absent due to internet problems

[A Little Green]

OK I'm back. First off, a warning - my 'Downs seems to have developed a habit of crashing every five minutes or so.

Very quickly now, since a quick reread made me feel better about both McCaber and Morsul, a part of why Boro looks the worst to me.

First off, an hour into the Day he's posting huge, well thought out analyses he could not have managed in that time unless he wrote them already before the Da started, which implies certainty of survival such as an innocent would not have unless arrogant.
Secondly, he keeps blaming others of hypocrisy while being just as hypocritical himself, casually discarding the idea.
Thirdly, his fixation on me is worrying. He is suddenly too certain.

Originally Posted by Boro

No one rage-quitting, please...no one. Calm down. Both sides seem to be misinterpretting what the others are saying, and it doesn't help when you go after it as "my words are getting twisted etc."

Originally Posted by Boro, some hours earlier

For instance in #92, she says she’s inclined to think between the Gil and Nerwen battle both are innocent. I’ve used this tactic many many times as a wolf.
--
I suppose it’s possible, because Pom would likely act a different baddie than myself, but I saw #92 and chuckled with the hindsight bias of finding out Pom’s guilt and I’ve used the same tactic before to look all smart and reasonable. “These two knuckleheads arguing are probably both innocent.” And if one winds up getting the other lynched, just an easy tactic to make it look like you've made a wise, substantial point about something.

Sorry, mate. Not smooth.

Originally Posted by Boro

If ya'll don't trust my findings and decide I'm suspicious enough to lynch, so be it. I'd like it remembered when I'm revealed innocent Greenie has twice given veil hints to knowing there's something rotten about me, but has withheld her reasons both times.

We don't need a fourth martyr here!

Originally Posted by Cop

I'm also very curious about the kerfuffle between him and Greenie toDay.

The thing is, he's been kerwuffling on his own until now.


EDIT: x-ed with a host

[Coppermirror]

Rest of Inzil and Kath analysis, going from page 10.

Inzil

#370 - Agrees with Brin about how unlikely Rikae is to be a wizard. Doesn't see Morsul's Rikae as a wizard scenario as likely, and reminds him that he was saying he thought she might be the purseholder earlier. (There does seem to be a decent amount of interaction with Morsul in Inzil's posts...Overall I'd say that they're unlikely both to be wizards, so it's probably one or them or none of them.)

#390 - In response to my comment about how we shouldn't lynch Rikae, says he isn't going to vote for Rikae. "Leave her to the Seer". (So, a suggestion to the Seer to dream of Rikae. Although he didn't really seem to think before that Rikae could be a wizard, so wouldn't dreaming of her be a bit of a waste? A wizard might really want to encourage a dream of an innocent.)

- then talks about how Morsul seems to be backpedaling.
- and Kath's #383 post strikes him as odd, like something he would say as a baddie himself.

#395 - After Brin talks about why she's suspecting Boro, he points out that Gil is suspicious and had voted Boro. He can't decide whether Nerwen's a wizard or an ordo, and doesn't find Nog particularly suspicious and says that's cause for worry in itself.

#398 - Not impressed with Morsul's vote. Talks about Morsul, Gil, and Boro as voting options. Wasn't suspicious of Boro until his Greenie vote.

#412 - Votes Gil, agrees with me about being unwilling to vote Boro after Gil's vote for him.

#440 - Thought that Gil already looked dodgy, hence his vote the previous Day. Wonders why the wizards didn't kill him instead of Brin.

#453, arguing with Gil over an inconsistency in the latter's interpretation of the previous Day.

#483 - Thinks Gil is an easy pick but hasn't done anything to make himself look better that Day. Finds Kath's vote interesting and can sort of see her reasoning, but doesn't know what to make of it yet. At #485, votes Gil.

Kath

#383 - Is back, and doesn't think it's a surprise that Volo was killed, given how Seerish she thought he sounded the other Day.

#392 - Irritation over the wizard of Oz thing.

#399 - Wants to know if Rikae officially quit and if so when she'd be mod-killed. And then #400, wants Sally to do a tally of votes.

#421 - Votes Morsul for the "innocent Cab" thing and unsatisfactory explanations. But Boro is lynched because he got 4 votes first. Could be a deliberate wizard choice to save Morsul by delaying vote placement, but it's probably too hard to tell, given that I doubt Kath was lying about having only just shown up. She only had about 20 minutes or so to backread and vote.

#473 - posts about concerns about Sally. Then at #479, votes Sally.

Originally Posted by Kath

I think the way she was around Gil - half defending him and then voting for him was odd. Also I'd rather the Day didn't end up just being the whole village bandwaggoning onto one vote.

And that's everything going up til toDay. Conclusions to follow.