WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Boromir88]

No one rage-quitting, please...no one. Calm down. Both sides seem to be misinterpretting what the others are saying, and it doesn't help when you go after it as "my words are getting twisted etc."

Different packs of people behave differently and go after kills for different reasons depending on the situation. Nerwen's not being unreasonable when the fact is analyzing the night kill is what we're supposed to do. I figured we'd get the "they thought Volo was the seer" theory as it's the first basic assumption when someone is killed. We wouldn't be doing a proper job if we just ignored the night-kill.

What needed to be kept in mind is whatever the roles thought in killing Volo, what Volo actually said about his suspicions/innocents/people is just going to lead us in circles. To use his posts to pinpoint what the wizards thought he got right, and thus why they killed Volo, is not going to get us anywhere. It's just as possible maybe they saw his "I need to vote for Nerwen to save McCaber" and then Day 2 "I feel better about Nerwen" as the seerish vibe and thus to get rid of someone who gave a seer vibe before he dreamed on of them.

What's suspicious is the reason's Rikae hasn't so eloquently or clearly pointed out. That is the spin Nog appears to be putting on the kill and that is "they thought Volo was the seer because he was right about one of his suspects." That is where the set up seems to be, and Rikae over-reacted to believe the wizards were setting up her. I agree with Nerwen that if wolves think a seer has pinned one of them, they kill the seer, if killed person turns out to be the seer they bus the wolf that looks bad.

Volo also said I've been reminding him of when we were wolves together. I think Nerwen pointed this out earlier, but has since focused on Rikae. I didn't say anything at the time, but for the sake of attempting not to make this all about Nerwen vs. Rikae. If I were a wizard and worried Volo pinned me, I'd definitely kill him no matter what would wind up happening to me. That being said, I would hope enough know by now I don't panic at every "I have a bad feeling Boro is bad" statement. I accept it's part of my reputation innocents hope I'm on their side, but won't ever trust me until I'm dead and revealed innocent, or cleared by the seer. Cop's had vague gut-feeling day 1, day 2 said for some unknown reason "I feel like I should be voting for Boro right about now" if I were a wizard what makes anyone think I'd go for Volo over Cop's unsubstantiated "bad gut-feelings" about me? Greenie has now provided no reason for bad feelings about me. I'm sure others I haven't read more carefully have stated something similar. The "I don't trust Boro/bad gut feelings" get tossed around more each game than I like to toss dwarves in sacks around.

I'd really really like to get responses and reactions to my posts analyzing people today. Particularly what the crowd thinks of my Nog and Greenie suspicions. If ya'll don't trust my findings and decide I'm suspicious enough to lynch, so be it. I'd like it remembered when I'm revealed innocent Greenie has twice given veil hints to knowing there's something rotten about me, but has withheld her reasons both times.

[Boromir88]

Crossed with several, but I forgot to respond to Cop here:

Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.

Day 1 I wasn't suspicious of Pom, I was suspicious of you, Brinn, and Nog. Seeing as you had some votes, the others didn't, and despite McCaber and Pom looking opportunistic to latch on and vote for you I wanted to vote for the person I was suspicious of...you.

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It may make me a hypocrite to cite that others looked like they were trying to steer focus away from Pom, while I was arguably doing the same (by voting you). But there is a big difference between making a note that McCaber and Pom both looked opportunistic in their day 1 votes. And doing what Greenie did, which was say that both looked opportunistic, but somehow McCaber's was more suspicious than Pom's...thus putting the focus on McCaber's jumpy vote and not Pom's.

I noticed that, too, but as I was a part of that situation I decided to wait on it and see if there would be any fallout from it rather than immediately leap in with a passioned defense and turn it into a big thing right there.

But I agree with your points. It felt really weird to me to be jumped on and have Pom ignored.

EDIT: X'd with CM.

[Brinniel]

Gil

Pom was trying to be a sneaky wizer and gave a vote for Cop, thinking that vote will have nothing to come of it and evade suspicion on Pom and Cop being Wizers. Then Cab voted for Cop. Pom paniced, fearing that if more people vote for WizerCop(keeping the hooliganwizers off the streets har har), Cop will be lynched.

I think that's a stretch. Copper was already gathering some attention for her vote. As someone already mentioned, Pom's vote looked more opportunistic.

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

Nog is least suspected, since he just threw his vote and it had little effect besides state his intention to suspect Cab.

I just have to look at Green, Oz and Rik closer now toDay if I feel they smell like a wizer, but I won't jump to conclusions. Same goes with Cop, my prime suspect in this plot.

So at the beginning of the Day, his suspects are Greenie, Oz, Rikae, andCopper, with Copper at the top.

I feel like I need to point this out and ask for others to keep an eye on it, but something is bugging me about Brin and Nerwe. Just that Brin voted Nerwe, then when I voted the same I got the most attention. I had to explain my reasoning later to defend myself since I couldn't say "Its a secret test" at first which would ultimately defeat the secret part of the test. Now Brins posts for toDay are giving Nerwe all her trust and making my vote be the bad guy.

Then he starts suspecting me. I already noted that me trusting Nerwen was a false statement.

Volo has been one that has been playing rather... Sloppy. This could mean that Vol has no role and thus little interest, or trying to play it super low if given a role. The bandwagon comment and bringing Nerwen back up to a potential lynchee is unsettling.

Thus for toDay, I am going to have to say:

++Volo

If he turns out to be an Ordo, then I will have to go back to my initial suspect of Brin. We shall see toNight as I won't be back on until right before the deadline.

Then he suddenly suspects and votes for Volo, dropping all his suspects from earlier in the Day (particularly Copper). He did say he was going to take a closer look at them, but if he did, he didn't mention it.

I noticed Gil bandwagoned on my vote both Days. I don't know if that's just some weird coincidence.

The rest of his posts that Day are defensive with the woe-is-me attitude. I didn't mind him acting that way at first, but he hasn't backed off of it. I recall seeing this behavior from both an evil and innocent Gil. And I do wonder if perhaps a Gil-wolf may be relying on this behavior to appear as a frustrated ordinary innocent.

That and his inconsistency in suspicion has me worried about him. I did see that he posted that he might not participate much toDay. I do hope he shows up before deadline though, because I'd like to hear from him.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

If she were a baddie, Rikae would have to rely on the idea that most players would believe her to be a suicidal innocent, which would be an awfully risky move. Anyone who self-votes is putting themselves at high risk of getting lynched, and if an evil Rikae were lynched, the ratio would be 13-2, making it extremely difficult for the remaining baddies to pull off a win, especially with three gifteds still alive. If an evil Rikae felt certain the increasing lynch would result in her lynch, it seems more likely she would false reveal than self-vote.

I don't know how likely she be the hunter either. This early in the game chances are she'd take down another innocent. And while odds are against it, it'd be particularly disastrous if she accidentally took out the ranger or seer.

This matches my take on the whole, strange situation. Even if a Wizard-Rikae was somehow able to convince everyone she was innocent, she'd be opening herself to the Seer. I can't really see the source of the original drama, though. I mean, yes, Rikae was under some suspicion, but it doesn't appear to have been anything out of the ordinary. So I don't know about the deal between her and Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Rikae's retraction of a post(which may or may not be sarcastic, I certainly didn't read sarcasm I read a resigned wolf. Too much detail for it to be sarcastic.) is odd.

Now she's claiming to be a sucidal Ordo. I find that odd almost like confessing then saying Haha joking you guys! Also to say not the hunter, well... my reason for voting sort of goes in the chute.

I think Rikae is a wizard and just got so annoyed and stressed(Truly truly sorry for your loss) she in essence ragequit the game, but now having calmed down has tried to defend the post as dark humor.

I just don't see this as likely. And didn't you initially say you thought Rikae could be the Purseholder, and that was a factor in your vote?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I noticed Gil bandwagoned on my vote both Days. I don't know if that's just some weird coincidence.

That caught my eye as well. If he was a Wizard and you an innocent, it might be a way to either buddy up to you or draw attention to you if he was outed.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I just don't see this as likely. And didn't you initially say you thought Rikae could be the Purseholder, and that was a factor in your vote?
.

It was, Rikae however said later that was untrue. I still can't really firgure out why an innocent to suicide like that. while a wizard might hope to be read as suicidal and left alone.

Thing is I've ragequit before but when I did I PMEd the mod and asked to be. Now obviously that doesnt mean Rikae couldn't go the ingame route but if she was deadset on ragequitting why not just take herself out of the game then we wouldn't be spending so much time in this.

Only a wizard wins with this much confusion.

[Brinniel]

++Boromir

[Brinniel]

Inzil, I would've preferred lynching Gil, but spreading out the votes seemed risky and I don't think enough suspected him for him to be lynched toDay.

[Brinniel]

Nogrod is the other one I'm worried about.

His Day 1 vote did look fishy. He explained his tactic the next Day, which did make me feel a little better about him, but a Nogwolf would be clever enough to come up with some reasonable explanation for his vote.

Day 2 he and Sally were the last two to vote, deciding between the two options. Nogrod mentioned that it was possible both candidates were innocent and the baddies could be just sitting back and letting it happen. I do agree that's possible, but I also think Nogrod could be one of those baddies. While Sally stated she was more suspicious of Morsul, Nogrod was ready to go either way. If he were a wizard and Morsul innocent, it wouldn't matter which of the two got lynched.

ToDay I'm worried about him because of his focus on Volo. While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer). As Boro mentioned, Volo was the cobbler and analyzing his posts and the reasons he was killed will just keep us going in circles. Not to mention, distract us from looking at other things. An evil Nogrod would encourage that, and maybe even chose Volo for that purpose.

[Nogrod]

Okay back and reading soon... only two full pages to read.

Just a quick one for this last one I saw above this post Brinn talks about me.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

ToDay I'm worried about him because of his focus on Volo. While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer). As Boro mentioned, Volo was the cobbler and analyzing his posts and the reasons he was killed will just keep us going in circles. Not to mention, distract us from looking at other things. An evil Nogrod would encourage that, and maybe even chose Volo for that purpose.

Yeah. I was online in the start of the Day and shortly in the middle. Sorry. I have not had time to do anything else toDay. But then again, I do think I have concentrated my effort on the best clue we have right now, which is why they picked Volo.

I'm not sure it is the only possible solution they picked him because they thought he was the seer, but if you have a better idea about why they picked him I'm all ears (and not sure if someone has actually done that already in the two pages I haven't yet read - going to do that like now).

What I do dislike (and find a bit disturbing) - if Brinn quotes him right - is Boro's comment of the thought going in circles if we look at Volo because he was the cobbler.

No. Not at all. The thought was about asking why the wolves decided to pick Volo exactly (aka. not knowing he was the cobbler). Volo's actual role has nothing to do with that question.

And Boro should see that.

EDIT: X'd with Copper & McCaber

[satansaloser2005]

Rikae seems like the stressed and overreacting innocent Rikae I've seen in the past. Leave her alone, at least for toDay. I'm not touching the other side of that show either. Nerwen is stressed out, and I'm going to let these shenanigans be bygones and move on. I think the entire thing has been blown out of proportion. We can review it toMorrow when everyone has calmed down and go from there.

I'm sorry I'm not more active toDay, but I'll be back in a bit and will provide a list.

X'd since Nog's last

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I do dislike (and find a bit disturbing) - if Brinn quotes him right - is Boro's comment of the thought going in circles if we look at Volo because he was the cobbler.

Given that Boro was one of the people whom Volo was (to appearances) suspicious of, that is something to bear in mind if thinking that Volo was killed for Seerishness. Esp. since toDay Rikae, the person most likely to be suspected in light of assuming Volo was killed for Seerishness, may be looking more like an innocent.

I think I'll take another look at Boro's posts on this page, since this has caught my attention.

Edit: cross-posted since my last.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro about McCaber's voting

If I’m sure my opinion isn’t going to change I don’t see a point in holding it for a last minute fury at the DL simply because I will still be around until the DL. I try more to give a person a chance to respond to suspicions if they’ve left for the day, but if I’m sure nothing will look more suspicious than someone making a bad-looking Day 1 vote why bother holding it to the end?

It may be we are built differently psychologically, but as an ordinary villager I could more or less never think to "be sure of my opinion" and if I had time to hang around a minute or two later I would like to keep my vote ready if something happens. That I would call responsible game by a villager.

I mean, yes you feel all bombastic about your suspicion (if you can, I rarely do) and vote an hour early before the DL even if you will hang around until the DL - then the seer comes revealing because of being threatened to be lynched, and you have no chance to save her/him any more because you used your vote already. Or something drastic happens and you feel you should reconsider the whole thing - but you can't as you have voted already... These things happen.

But the wolves naturally more or less know what they are ding - so they can be a lot more confident in their voting.

(Btw. what I found suspicious in McCaber's voting on D1 was not that he voted an hour and a half early, but that he explained his vote as not willing to cause a last minute chaos... Last minutes and one and half an hours are two pretty different things: and voting at the last minutes are very different if you know who's around and what are their intentions than coming from nowhere to vote at the last second.)

Blah. It clearly seems I'm not havong time to continue like this remarking on everything that I think would require a comment. Too little time and too much to read for this kind of approach.

So from now on I try to focus of just forming a generals idea for toDay.

[Boromir88]

++Greenie

Can't stay around and wait any more for her unknown reasons why I suddenly look bad to her.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Copper

ToDay I'm considering voting for: Gil, Morsul, Nog. In no particular order.

Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.

EDIT: X-ed since Kath

[Brinniel]

Not worried about
Rikae: Just looks like a frustrated ordo.
Copper: As already stated, I'm still thinking that Pom's vote was probably not wolf-on-wolf.
Greenie: I'm feeling good about her posts toDay. They seem well thought-out and logical enough.
Shasta: Hope he shows up toMorrow.
Inzil: His Day 1 vote makes him look more innocent and he hasn't said anything to change my opinion of that.
Loslote: Already was leaning innocent because of her Day 1 vote, plus I like what she's said toDay and agree with a lot of it.
Bane: Will probably be modfired.
Sally: I suppose there's always the possibility she's a very sneaky wizard who threw her mate under the bus, but I see no reason to suspect her.
Boromir: Still not sure about him, but I like what he's said toDay.
Nerwen: Like Rikae, looks more like a frustrated innocent.

Not sure what to think
Morsul: His behavior never fails to confuse me. I'm slightly leaning toward innocent, but still feeling uncertain.
McCaber: I don't know. Pom trying to place focus on him makes him look better, but I'm still at a question mark.
Kath: I didn't like her vote yesterDay; she seemed to simply echo others' comments. But she was a bit behind, so that might be part of it.

Worried about (for reasons already stated)
Gil
Nogrod

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The thought was about asking why the wolves decided to pick Volo exactly (aka. not knowing he was the cobbler). Volo's actual role has nothing to do with that question.

Well no, I don't think Volo's actual role has anything to do with his death (even if the wizards figured it out, why would they kill their own cobbler?). But I do think it a possibility the wizards chose him over a safer choice was because they hoped his death would keep us going in circles.

[Kath]

Hey. I am here. Had cinema issues.

Quick note having read the narration - I don't think it's a surprise Volo was killed. When I was posting about him yesterDay I kept having freak-outs that his weird behaviour could be Seerish. Least we got lucky with him being the Cobbler rather than the actual Seer!

Reading through now.