Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

No surprises here– my treasure’s “Well, that’s torn it. Very nicely done,” remark (#280) pretty much had to come from either a wolf preparing for a fake reveal– or the Seer– and I’m inclined to think he’s the latter.

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Well, I can think of one reason– the wolves might have been convinced Steve was the Seer, about to out one of their number, have failed to kill him last Night due to Ranger-protection, and thought this was the best option left them. Okay. That’s what we’ll have to look at if Steve turns out innocent, or something else turns up, or whatever.

In the meantime, I think Eonwe should go on toDay’s lynch-list.

–Oh yes, I’ve seen your numbers-based arguments, Steve, but the problem, from the village’s point-of-view, is that they would apply in the case of any alleged wolf revealed by any alleged Seer.

By the way:

Originally Posted by Steve

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

EDIT:X’d with Steve, and Lottie’s competing reveal. Well, well!

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Maybe they thought I was the seer, like Lommy did. Even though I'd finally just stopped suspecting Greenie. Or maybe that was actually the plan. Since I'd stopped suspecting Greenie , I wouldn't dream of her and then after getting lynched toDay, my change of opinion on Greenie could easily look like the dream of the Night before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

It means that whether or not the real seer believes me, they should come out now if they know the other wolf, because the other one would have to be either me or Shasta. Of course, she did, which is great.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.

So, it looks like my earlier fears were not unmerited. And since Sally has decided not to tell us whether or not the wolves knew whether or not the seer to see who was Saruman or not, we're at an even greater disadvantage than we would be otherwise. Because as well as deciding whether the wolves are bluffing or double-bluffing etc., we also have to decide whether they knew, or thought we thought they knew etc. about how the dreams would show up. It's probably best to not think about the latter part too much though, because we'll probably never know.

I think what it boils down to is that if they're playing it safe, Greenie is Saruman. Shasta has already exposed himself and there was a chance that the Seer hadn't already found Greenie (she hasn't really appeared on many people's suspicion lists so far). But since they've already gone this far by risking this tactic this early (I mean, if they'd been able to stay alive until toMorrow, they'd have a much greater chance of success- unless maybe they thought the real seer was ready to reveal?), I wouldn't rule out the other option either.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Nice try, most-likely Saruman!

edit: x-ed with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Also, doesn't anyone else see the gaping hole in Shasta and Greenie's logic?

It's quite obvious that if Lottie and I were wolves, the only reason for her to come out of hiding would be if I were Saruman, because otherwise she would get to use her Saruman powers once I was lynched. So, clearly the village would then go to lynch me anyway, and her coming out of hiding would just be damaging. It just doesn't make sense.

[McCaber]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Well, I couldn't very well say you were innocent explicitly. I was still trying to hide when I posted that - I figured that consistently supporting you over Eonwe was a subtle enough hint without not having any "reason" at all to think you might be a wolf. So I tried to find something that wasn't completely off-the-wall.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

[Nerwen]

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:
How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

[satansaloser2005]

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).