Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

[Eönwë]

A sudden thought:

If you are the real seer and you still haven't revealed, you need to do so ASAP. If it turns out Shasta and Lottie are actually the wolves, they have a certain 50/50 chance of winning.

[Eönwë]

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

Oh, I thought of that all right– ages ago, actually– but as you say yourself, it doesn’t make much sense for them to be doing such a thing at this stage.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, better vote.

Steve does seem to be the best option. If innocent, he’s an ordo compared to Lottie’s claimed Seer. If a wolf, he seems more likely to be Saruman than Lottie does, especially with his last couple of posts looking like the start of an attempt to bus Lottie.

++Eönwë

[Loslote]

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

I quite agree with this. If they’re wolves, it’s most unlikely Saruman would be the one to stick his neck out with the false reveal.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

EDIT:X’d with Steve.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

All I'm saying is that it seems far-fetched for a wolf to do what she did for such an uncertain payoff. Even if we were wolves and she averted the vote for one Day, there's still a strong possibility that the village would go for me the next Day to test out Shasta's claim.

[Thinlómien]

Wow, this is just crazy.

I would so much more like to believe Lottie as that would save my dignity, but if I put that aside, it looks like a hard choice. Lynching Eönwë (which seems to be about to happen) or Greenie seems the wisest course toDay and then we'll be wiser, so maybe I shouldn't waste my time on this but really:

- I think Lottie's dreams make more sense than Shasta's. Missing the Night0 dream sounds like a lie that would draw too much attention (why not say she dreamt say Inzil instead?) and some stuff quoted earlier toDay didn't really seem like Shasta had dreamt of Nerwen.

- Eönwë is digging a hole in which to bury himself, even if he's innocent.

- Greenie's reaction was... weird. But nowhere as weird as Eönwë's hole-digging.

- I don't understand why sorcerer!Lottie would rather risk the whole pack's survival by doing a counter-reveal when she could just let Eönwë-Saruman die and keep laying low. Are the benefits (ie. getting a new unknown wolf) really worth the risk (Eönwë-Saruman getting lynched toDay and sorcerer!Lottie the next)? Honestly I think not. What guarantee would Lottie have that the village lynches her instead of Eönwë? It would be really bad miscalculation on her part. I don't think she's so stupid (sorry darling if you are, but then you deserve to lose. )

- both seers are clearly trying to get Nerwen and me on their side, which is sweet.

- I need to do some maths.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- Eönwë is digging a hole in which to bury himself, even if he's innocent.

Yeah, but I've already accepted my fate as a sacrifice for truth, so I'm just saying what I think now.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- I don't understand why sorcerer!Lottie would rather risk the whole pack's survival by doing a counter-reveal when she could just let Eönwë-Saruman die and keep laying low. Are the benefits (ie. getting a new unknown wolf) really worth the risk (Eönwë-Saruman getting lynched toDay and sorcerer!Lottie the next)? Honestly I think not. What guarantee would Lottie have that the village lynches her instead of Eönwë? It would be really bad miscalculation on her part. I don't think she's so stupid (sorry darling if you are, but then you deserve to lose. )

See! This is exactly what I've been saying all this time! I don't understand how people can see that as an acceptable explanation of her actions.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Green
Lommy
Steve

= 9 people. 7 innocents (incl. three gifteds), 2 wolves (incl. 1 Saruman).

Coming up with a worst-case scenario:

Say we lynch an ordo toDay.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day5 we have 5 innocents and 2 known wolves.
1) We lynch Saruman.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents and 1 known wolf
-> we win
2) We lynch a regular wolf.
-> next Night a new wolf is named, no one dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents, 1 known wolf and an unknown wolf
-> we lynch the known wolf obviously
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day7, we have 3 innocents and 1 unknown wolf
-> we have very slim evidence against whoever the wolf is, a 25% chance to find them at random and barring the ranger or the hunter doing deeds of valour (if they happen to be alive) the next Night, we are screwed.

Ergo, I am not very happy about these contesting reveals at all. The wolves have pretty certainly done this maths too, and in this light, Lottie's counter-reveal makes more sense although it would still have been stupid to assume we'd rather lynch her than Eönwë.

Then again, if Shasta's the one who's lying, Greenie basically has to be Saruman. The scheme is actually quite smart. By making a fake reveal, Shasta creates a confusion in which it's easy for Greenie to hide. He manages to flush out the real seer and in the best case get an innocent (Eönwë) lynched before he goes. Thus he provides Greenie a nice chance to hide in peace until he dies, whereupon she can scry a new, totally unsuspectable wolf, so it doesn't even matter if Greenie herself falls into suspicion. I totally wouldn't put it past Shasta and Greenie to come up with a scheme like this.

Now the only problem is of course that the actual seer (Lottie) dreamt of Greenie and ruined their scheme. Incredibly bad luck! But my point is, if we believe Eönwë and Lottie are the wolves, it's their own fault they are both in the spotlight. But if Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, they intended only one of them to be in the spotlight toDay.

Ergo, wolf!Shasta and wolf!Greenie's plot would be much smarter than wolf!Eönwë and wolf!Lottie's, and in ww I rather overestimate than underestimate people.

Anyway, this maths of mine comforts me a little. If Eönwë is innocent like I would guess if I really had to choose, then there's no way it's a devious masterplan and Shasta's actually Saruman, because he and Greenie would have had no way of knowing Greenie too would be a lynch candidate.

And if Eönwë is Saruman, we are really well off. If he's a regular sorcerer and Lottie's Saruman (which absolutely makes no sense whatsoever), then we are in some trouble but the trouble's no bigger than what is sort of encoded in the rules anyway (and we can blame the moddess if we lose ).

Ergo, I don't really care whether we lynch Eönwë or Greenie even though I believe Lottie over Shasta.


edit: xed with Eönwë

[McCaber]

++ Eonwe

I think he's more likely to be an evil wizard than not. But even if we're wrong we're not in terrible shape here.