Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Eönwë]

A sudden thought:

If you are the real seer and you still haven't revealed, you need to do so ASAP. If it turns out Shasta and Lottie are actually the wolves, they have a certain 50/50 chance of winning.

[Eönwë]

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

Oh, I thought of that all right– ages ago, actually– but as you say yourself, it doesn’t make much sense for them to be doing such a thing at this stage.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, better vote.

Steve does seem to be the best option. If innocent, he’s an ordo compared to Lottie’s claimed Seer. If a wolf, he seems more likely to be Saruman than Lottie does, especially with his last couple of posts looking like the start of an attempt to bus Lottie.

++Eönwë

[Loslote]

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

I quite agree with this. If they’re wolves, it’s most unlikely Saruman would be the one to stick his neck out with the false reveal.