WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Thinlómien]

Team Stannis got added into my name? Yesss. There is only one true King in Westeros and it's Stannis Baratheon! Death to the Lannister usurpers!

So without further ado, let me scrutinize you -

Eönwë - house Royce - obviously our ranger and will be the first one to die.
Inziladun - house Tully - since we're in the Riverlands, shouldn't he have been there to protect his subjects? Apparently the Tullys don't care too much about the smallfolk, but I admit they're not big fans of the Lannisters.
Kitanna - illiterate peasant - might be Davos Seaworth in disguise so I'm naturally inclined to trust her.
Encaitare - random peasant - in the world of George R.R. Martin, nothing is random so she's probably a Lannister or Targaryen bastard and bears watching.
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon - Stannis not Robert, Stannis not Robert, STANNIS NOT ROBERT, I'm not a Lannister ok???
wilwarin538 - house Mormont - don't the Mormonts breed with bears? Obviously a lover.
Boromir88 - house Bolton - House Bolton? They stab their friends in the back and skin their enemies. Neither is a good option so we should probably lynch him asap.
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin - everybody knows the Tyrells are in cahoots with the Lannisters so we should get rid of her.
Nerwen - house Martell - known for having a grudge with the Lannisters. That looks god in my books.
Galadriel55 - wildling - shouldn't that filth stay beyond the wall?
A Little Green - house Reed - don't have much to say except those frog people seem to know more about everything than us others. Not too happy about that.
WythDryden - house Martell - see what I said about Nerwen.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark - despite the fact that this game has werelions I'm naturally suspicious of someone who carries a wolf in their banner. Enough said.
Rikae - house Tarth - ah but is she the bear or the maiden fair? Better still not to lynch her yet because a gallant knight might dream of her and want to rescue her and get the bear killed in process.
Macalaure - house Connington - what is House Connington famous for? Being Targaryen loyalists and getting bitch slapped by Lannisters. Maybe we should keep him for amusement value.
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit - crazy Northern hermit? So our see... oops, I didn't say anything. Probably no one special.
Nogrod - house Swann - a house famously torn in loyalties. Should be watched.
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy - Euron Crow's Eye? No relation to the three-eyed crow? Are you serious?
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos - my King kind of owns the Braavosi so I should probably shut up.
satansaloser2005 - random peasant - see what I said about Encai.
skip spence - ex-Lannister Imp - how can you be an ex-Lannister as all they care about is legacy? Surely you are a Lannister or are not. Extra minus for pouring wildfire on my King's head.


Ergo:

Wolves - Skip, Eomer and Sally or Encai, or possibly Nogrod, Lottie or me

Lovers - Wilwa and Rikae

Seer - Coppermirror (or possibly Volo)

Ranger - Eönwë

Hunter - the one of Encai and Sally that isn't a wolf, or possibly Mac


See, I solved the game purely based on ic stuff. Can I have cake now?

Going to bed now, I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep. I'll be back around the European noon and make more sense then.

[Boromir88]

Posting to subscribe...will return after I perform a routine leeching

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep.

I can do that!

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

With the changed hunter one of the interesting things is they can't reveal or they lose their power. I love this rule, because I don't think the hunter should ever reveal, it makes their ability kinda useless.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

Does that all make sense? Hopefully I've interpreted the roles correctly. Basically, we want the wolves to kill one of the lovers before we do, and the coin toss could be beneficial in different ways depending on how early it happens.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

I agree with the scenario analysis, but the random element makes it a crapshoot. If they do get to kill someone, we have to hope too that they make a helpful choice, as usual.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Encaitare - random peasant - in the world of George R.R. Martin, nothing is random so she's probably a Lannister or Targaryen bastard and bears watching.

I bear watching, eh? Just what are you implying, madam? And suggesting I am a bastard? My parents are married, and both are very much human.

(Let me remind everyone that I have neither read the books nor watched the show, so any in-world references mean very little to me. Therefore I may be very random indeed!)

Originally Posted by Inziladun

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

I've never played a game with Lovers before, so you bring up a good point. I had not thought that they might choose to support the lions. *clutches head* So basically there are four baddies we need to take out -- three lions and a bear -- plus the remaining lover who will be working against us if we lynch the other one. (Someone please correct me if I've got that wrong!)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

.
Boromir88 - house Bolton - House Bolton? They stab their friends in the back and skin their enemies. Neither is a good option so we should lynch him asap.

Taking the high road is most gracious, but the high road is difficult to follow against Lannisters. And no one kills Lannisters half as well as House Bolton.

[wilwarin538]

Well, bedtime for me. I'll hop on in about 9 hours for a bit before work, will hopefully have lots to read. The deadline is a bit before the end of my work day but thankfully I have a desk job and can pretty easily post from there, assuming I don't get pulled away from my desk unexpectedly I should be able to vote fairly close to the DL. So yeah, hopefully I can still contribute quite a bit (yay for having a reason to slack off )

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

WythDryden - house Martell - see what I said about Nerwen.

You are wise to trust me. Nothing will give me greater pleasure than putting to death these bear-lion-maggots. I found these dwarf-women intensely curious, and as I hail from the land of Dorne, I love indiscriminately. Having them taken from us, and cut short the fun we may have had, calls for a vengeance that I can't wait to assume with my spear.

Those illustrious and lustrous beards shall be avenged.

[Loslote]

Okay, guys, I've figured it out! I know who it was! It was...

(pause for effect)

Kath!

...wait, that's not right...

*ahem*

Well! The next step is figure out how those prints got there! They are animal prints, but I don't see animals in our company - therefore the animals must have turned into people. And we all know who turns into people - witches! And what do we do with witches? We burn them! And what else burns? Wood! And since woods floats, and ducks also float, the killers must weigh the same as a duck! Do we happen to have a set of scales in the inn? This could blow the whole mystery out of the water!

(DL is right towards the end of my work shift this game. I'll maybe be able to check in occasionally, but I probably won't be posting much in the second half of the Day.)

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Encaitare - random peasant - in the world of George R.R. Martin, nothing is random so she's probably a Lannister or Targaryen bastard and bears watching.

A Lannister, or a Targaryen, and also possibly bears watching?

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

That's true. However, if push comes to shove, I'd trade the extra kill for a cobbler.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

With the changed hunter one of the interesting things is they can't reveal or they lose their power. I love this rule, because I don't think the hunter should ever reveal, it makes their ability kinda useless.

They become a known innocent. Well, as known as a revealed gifted with no proof can get. Could be helpful under the right circumstances, could be not. At any rate, I think it's for the hunter to decide if revealing at any given moment will pay off rather than keep their ability.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

The survival ability also gives us the known innocent for an extra day without having a reveal. This is always useful, but especially so towards the end of the game. A live and known innocent! And we would know more from the wolves (bears?) motives without actually having that person killed. Like a Ranger save, except that the Ranger does not have to reveal. I must say, I rather like this option. The other side of the coin is your regular illogical hunter, as I understand.

QUESTION FOR THE MODS: Do both sides of the coin still work if the Targaryen is lynched? Is he still alive the next Day?

EDIT: xed with Lottie

[Galadriel55]

Brief addition about the Lover speculation: I somehow automatically assumed that whatever the Lovers choose to do will not be in our favour, but then who knows. Best case scenario is the Bear killing a wolf/lion (or two or three). And then all remaining living people are happy, including the Lovers (assuming they don't get lynched).

Just some food for thought. It's best served with potatoes, and some carrots, if you have. Good vegetables are hard to come by beyond the Wall, especially in the winter.

EDIT: xed with sally

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ergo:

Wolves - Skip, Eomer and Sally or Encai, or possibly Nogrod, Lottie or me

Lovers - Wilwa and Rikae

Seer - Coppermirror (or possibly Volo)

Ranger - Eönwë

Hunter - the one of Encai and Sally that isn't a wolf, or possibly Mac


See, I solved the game purely based on ic stuff. Can I have cake now?

Going to bed now, I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep. I'll be back around the European noon and make more sense then.

It would be hilarious if you listed all the lions correctly here. It wouldn't even be the first time someone did that - in fact, I think a wolf has done that before.

Originally Posted by Skip

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

Duly noted...

Edit: X'd with Encai

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Would the real Targaryan please stand up?

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

Ha, I had a feeling I would get some votes on the first day because I was being talkative (I have a history of these games of either being lynched for talking too much or not talking enough) and I am a safe lynch vote at this point. But I honestly thought my defense of the bear was being rather strong and forward, and even controversial. I wanted conflict, not to be careful, and hopefully draw out some Lions. Throw caution to the wind!

Sure it is a moot point, but what else are we talking about? Which houses we belong too (which has no effect on the role detirmination of the game that I know of)?

I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but will hold off till closer to deadline time.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

And that's all the real Targaryen could do, unless he was a)killed and b) won the coin toss. He couldn't even counter-reveal without losing his power.

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Inzil
I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.