WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, the hunter can reveal, but becomes an ordo on doing so.

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

[Thinlómien]

Thanks for the clarification, Nerwen! But if the hunter reveals and thus becomes an ordo at the point when s/he wouldn't be live if s/he was an ordo, it doesn't make much sense to me.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

That's up to the hunter, I guess. I wouldn't be surprised if s/he preferred to take a shot at killing a wolf rather than become a known innocent though.

[Volo]

Mild spoiler.

I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!
Or on the other hand, maybe not. (oh, how I've missed this smiley) The Targaryen has no sympathies with the usurpers dogs, Lannisters, lions, wolves, whatever they are. No spoiler. So let's leave sleeping dragons sleep.

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Thanks for the clarification, Nerwen! But if the hunter reveals and thus becomes an ordo at the point when s/he wouldn't be live if s/he was an ordo, it doesn't make much sense to me.

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

EDit:x'd with Volo.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

QUESTION FOR THE MODS: Do both sides of the coin still work if the Targaryen is lynched? Is he still alive the next Day?

Yes, both sides are still there - irrespective of the cause of death, the Targaryen either survives an extra day or takes someone to the grave.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Can we get modly clarification about whether we will get to know who was attacked at Night if it was the hunter and s/he lives?

A lightning won't strike the Targaryen dead if they reveal during their extra day. Nerwen is quite correct that at that point, they have no special powers left to lose.
The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

[Volo]

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

[Volo]

Mac, thank you for your very educational demonstration. Great minds...

Well, I'll go see if this inn has more paper hidden somewhere. Unless one of you would like to interpret my sign language.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I agree with the scenario analysis, but the random element makes it a crapshoot. If they do get to kill someone, we have to hope too that they make a helpful choice, as usual.

Of course, it's all completely random and we can't predict what will happen, but it's good for us to get discussion going by considering the possible outcomes.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well! The next step is figure out how those prints got there! They are animal prints, but I don't see animals in our company - therefore the animals must have turned into people. And we all know who turns into people - witches! And what do we do with witches? We burn them! And what else burns? Wood! And since woods floats, and ducks also float, the killers must weigh the same as a duck! Do we happen to have a set of scales in the inn? This could blow the whole mystery out of the water!

Wow, I've missed this place so much

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- also, consequently, my maths say that if the bear and his lover choose to side with the wolves, then the worst case scenario is that we can have a total out in the open vote conspiracy that can make the village lose as early as Day4.

......

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

So I'm off to work. Depending on how busy I am today I should be able to pop on a few times.

edt: ah, page 2! x'ed since Agan

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

Come on, when don't you suspect me on Day1?

And as reply to Volo and Wilwa:

Let's assume a worst case scenario. That is we lynch only innocents, the wolves and the bear kill only innocents, the seer doesn't dream of wolves, the ranger doesn't make saves and the hunter doesn't kill a wolf.

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

Okay, I screwed up my maths a bit earlier because I somehow counted that we would be 5 + 2 +3 on Day4. In that case, the wolves and the lovers might just all have revealed and teamed up after one innocent has voted. (Given that both teams would have reason to assume the innocent is innocent.) Now I see we're only screwed on Day5 if everything goes wrong.

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

And see, Volo, someone proved Lommy's ominous maths wrong.

I should probably shut up though. I seem to have created a habit of making a fool of myself on Day1. *would insert a self ironic smiley if I hadn't run out of the quota* I'll be back later!


edit: xed with Wyth and Kit!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

....

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

Really it'll only get super easy if we get rid of the double night kills early, if that happens than yeah we have a huge advantage number wise. But as long as we lose two people per night our numbers are going to dwindle very fast. Hopefully we just get lucky with lynches or the baddies do accidentally kill each other. Could really go any way here. One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden.

And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other.

(I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)

[Gil-Galad]

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

Whatever happens happens, but i feel a hunt for the bear first would be a waste of effort on our part. Balance the playing field and hunt us some lions.

[Macalaure]

Regarding our noble and rightful rulers, the Targaryens, there are three things that could happen:

1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.


Aside from this, while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm...


(Saw Volo's post as I previewed.)

[Macalaure]

Mac slaps his thigh at Volo's intro joke.

Now, obviously I don't think we should all reveal as hunters. One fake reveal might stir the pot a little, but many will eventually start to benefit the wolves.


I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

[Aganzir]

Wilwarin startled awake from a bad dream. There was a faint glow on the eastern sky, but around her everything was still dark. For a moment she lay still, blinking and wondering what had awoken her. Then slowly, as if against her will, she turned her head, and her gaze focused on something huge that sat in the shadows, a deeper patch of black against the dark room. The something shifted.

“I have a problem with you, Mormont,” he said in a deep, rumbling voice. “Your existence. The fact that you're living and breathing, to be precise.”

“Please,” wilwa started, but the bear continued:

“There is only room for one bear in this Inn, and you are the one too many.”

“Oh, Bear, please don't kill me! I have so much more to give!” wilwa begged. This was not at all how she had imagined the traditional song about the bear; the song that she had known since her childhood on Bear Island in the North.

The bear paused, as if to consider. “Now that you mention it, Mormont, I suppose I could find some use for you...” He took a step closer. Wilwa sat up in her bed, feeling unprotected. “You could give me a late supper,” the bear said. He drew back his giant paw and swatted wilwa on the face almost absent-mindedly. But so strong was the blow that it broke her neck, and her head lolled from side to side when the bear sank his muzzle into the flesh in her stomach.

**

The night wore on. The sun was already creeping up the sky when the Lannister were-lions figured they had lazed long enough in the warmth of the kitchen that still smelled faintly yet pleasantly of the blood of the dwarfs.

“Is it about time we murdered someone?” one of them asked, a lioness with soft fur almost as white as silver. (For, as you know, a male lion is not much of a hunter.)

“Do we really have to?” another one asked, yawning. She was sleek and golden.

“To defend the honour of our house, yes,” the third one – a muscular, auburn lioness said.

“What honour?” asked the golden lioness and got to her feet, stretching.

“Who do you reckon is the biggest threat to the Lannister triumph?” asked the first lion, ignoring the remark.

“The wildling,” said the auburn lion without missing a beat.

“The wildling?” echoed the golden lion. “The wildling when we have relatives and bannermen of important noble houses?”

“The wildling,” repeated the auburn lion.

“Whatever you say,” said the silver lion getting up.

After reaching this lazy consensus, the lions stalked upstairs with feline grace and were soon by Galadriel55's bedside. Her tangled hair lay on the pillow and she breathed peacefully.

“What should we do with her?” purred the golden lion.

“There's no time for games,” said the silver lion wrily. Indeed, the room wasn't quite dark any more.

Without further ado, the auburn lion jumped nimbly on Galadriel's bed, and she had barely time to wake up and gasp when long yellow teeth sunk into her neck and shook her rapidly until she moved no more.

The were-lions padded softly back to their beds.

**

As the patrons woke up, they found Galadriel's still warm body in the shared room she had slept in. It was unchanged.

When they went down to the second floor, it wasn't difficult to tell in which room the carnage had taken place. The floor was covered in blood all the way to the corridor, and intestines were spread around the room. What remained of wilwa lay on the bed, eyes blank and staring into nothing – the third one in the middle of her forehead as still and lifeless as the other two.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - pranced on by lions on Night 2

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Day 2. Comment is free.

[Inziladun]

Give me a break! Seer gone, not even at the hands of the Lions. And we know her vote was an Ordo.

And what did G55 do to get the Lions' attention? I think that's the only useful info from the Nightly activity.

[Kitanna]

Well....fudge...

I've been slowly going through the posts from yesterday (I'm on the top of page 3 only). And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Long post to follow soon on my notes from the first few pages. Then more long posts to eventually follow about the last few pages.

[Rikae]

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me. Of course, the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion. Or did she say something that made her one dream somehow apparent? She certainly focused on the bear a lot, seemed to be trying to decide whether it should be killed early or not, but I don't see anything that seems to clearly be hinting at the identity of her dream. Could have been bear or lover, in this scenario.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

Here's her list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

If anything there is a bear hint, I'd say the comment on Mac (he's nervous about a cobbler because he doesn't want to kill a bear/lover). Mac's response does seem a little, I don't know, fabricated? Kind of a "back off from this or I'll call you suspicious!"?

Originally Posted by Mac

Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.

On the other hand I kind of doubt he'd go out on a limb like that to counter the very suggestion of lynching the bear/lover if he was one. It seems like a big risk to take when we're only talking hypothetically anyway.

This exchange would also be pretty bold:

Originally Posted by Mac

Originally Posted by Wilwa
Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass
Originally Posted by Macalaure
What's wrong with bears?

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

On another note, I wanted to answer Eönwë's post from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

Edit: X'd with... everyone.

[Volo]

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

I just meant in such a scenario a lion who's going to die anyway could buy an extra day, because only the other lions and real Targaryen know their identity. Or anyone else (and in such a case, the wolves aren't exactly going to step in and confirm, though I can imagine they would try to get the false one killed to add credibility in the "see, I was right!" kind of way). And with no seer, this is even more possible. I mean, there's a very slim chance of such a thing, but that's the sort of scenario I was imagining.

[Rikae]

I don't care for lists, really, but I need to organize my thoughts. I'll try to keep it brief.

Eönwë - Last on the Skip wagon. At this point, that's a conservative vote, especially since the consensus seems to be that a lion wouldn't do it. Possibly the worst of the Skip-voters.
Inziladun - He seems defensive, but I think if he really had something to hide he'd probably be more cautious.
Kitanna - I thought she was suspicious but after looking everything over again, seems foul but feels fair. Her vote for Skip is actually reasonable enough and not too waggony.
Encaitare - This, from post #55, kind of jumps out at me:
"I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though."
Others expressed the same sentiment, but this just seems... odd.

Her vote for Nog also seems kind of out of the blue, and not very well-supported.

Originally Posted by Encai

Because he is acting very suspicious of Galadriel, and while I agree that she has been rather, um, aggressive, I don't think that would be a good lion strategy. It could be that Nogrod is latching on to that and trying to draw attention toward her. Meanwhile, he has been very quiet, maybe to keep attention away from himself. (Surely one can post on the internet and watch the World Cup at the same time. )

It's the sort of vote that's likely to be overlooked when there's an ordo-wagon to analyze (which she could have anticipated, at that point).

Thinlómien - Seems trustworthy enough, especially since she suspects me now.
Boromir88 - Hasn't said enough.
Loslote - Safe, noncontroversial. Skip vote isn't suspicious in itself, since there wasn't a wagon yet, but it also is rather an easy vote.
Nerwen - Seems to be poking, casting a little suspicion here and there. Then again, that is a good tactic for an ordo hunting lions as well, though I think ordos usually are more purposeful about it.
A Little Green - Seems innocentish.
WythDryden - I can't read him at all, not enough to go on yet.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - He just seems slippery. Glib. Safe. Too much like a lion would want to be.
Macalaure - A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him.
Coppermirror - No opinion yet, except that huge lists make me sad.
Nogrod - Seems his usual self. I disagree with him on some things, but he doesn't appear guilty.
Volo- Seems ok. I'm not buying the "Gal looked seerish" theory, and there's nothing else against him.
Gil-Galad - Gil's posts always look suspicious, so I try not to suspect him unless there is more evidence.
satansaloser2005 - Silly or under the reindeer. I can't say anything about her at this point.

Encai, Eomer and to some extent Eönwë look the most suspicious to me right now. Or maybe I'm just prejudiced against the letter 'E'.

Edit: Oh, and Nerwen.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Agree with Mac here.

It's been a while since I played, but are we still doing the "Day One is useless at the time!" "No it's not!" debate that used to define the beginning of games?

Or are the usual tricks to avoid it so clichéd that they become suspicious, twice over?

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

String them up!

[Encaitare]

Here are the votes from yesterDay, including notes of who cross-voted with whom.

Greenie --> Kitanna
Boromir --> Lommy
Gil-Galad --> Lommy (2)
Inziladun --> Kitanna (2)
Encai --> Kitanna (3) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Wyth --> Kitanna (4) *cross-posted with 4 previous votes*
Copper --> Kitanna (5) *cross-posted with 1 previous vote*
Kitanna --> Encai
Loslote --> Kitanna (6) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Lommy --> Kitanna (7) *cross-posted with 2 previous votes*
Sally --> Lommy (3)
Nogrod --> Kitanna (8)
Rikae --> Encai (2) *cross-posted with 8 previous votes*
Eomer --> Boromir

Did not vote: Eonwe

[Encaitare]

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

It's not impossible, but as you said there were safer targets a LommyLion could have pushed for.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

My theory is that Gil was generally unsuspected and quiet, so a good kill. Less chaotic than he used to be, so maybe even a gifted. Obviously the only trace in his posting leading to an innocent wouldn't have been something bad in their eyes either, and Encai being so quick to grasp at that trail doesn't make her look very good to me. Really, if I was a wolf, I'd have killed almost anyone but Gil.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Sure, the Hunter may become useful later in the game, but (s)he might just as well become harmful taking down another innocent at death which may come at any time (in true Got style).

WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.

Originally Posted by Mac

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Agan said that the narration will reveal that.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

The bear still gets a kill (though one kill a night is obviously better than two) and the Targaryan doesn't have any knowledge to impart to us. She/he is just a known innocent to bolster the village numbers. Which isn't bad, but at this point a reveal isn't the best idea.

I've never played a game with Lovers before, so you bring up a good point. I had not thought that they might choose to support the lions. *clutches head* So basically there are four baddies we need to take out -- three lions and a bear -- plus the remaining lover who will be working against us if we lynch the other one. (Someone please correct me if I've got that wrong!)

It hadn't occurred to me either. Since they both have to make it to end game I assumed they'd just change alliances from day to day as the need demanded. Or be submarinish to avoid detection.

Originally Posted by Sally

You'll have to forgive dear Kit. She learned to count by cutting into her fingers one at a time, and she accidentally removed a few during the process, so math is a bit difficult for her.

No one understands my illiterate status better than you, my dear.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

Agreed.

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.