WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Thanks for the clarification, Nerwen! But if the hunter reveals and thus becomes an ordo at the point when s/he wouldn't be live if s/he was an ordo, it doesn't make much sense to me.

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

EDit:x'd with Volo.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

QUESTION FOR THE MODS: Do both sides of the coin still work if the Targaryen is lynched? Is he still alive the next Day?

Yes, both sides are still there - irrespective of the cause of death, the Targaryen either survives an extra day or takes someone to the grave.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Can we get modly clarification about whether we will get to know who was attacked at Night if it was the hunter and s/he lives?

A lightning won't strike the Targaryen dead if they reveal during their extra day. Nerwen is quite correct that at that point, they have no special powers left to lose.
The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

[Volo]

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

[Volo]

Mac, thank you for your very educational demonstration. Great minds...

Well, I'll go see if this inn has more paper hidden somewhere. Unless one of you would like to interpret my sign language.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I agree with the scenario analysis, but the random element makes it a crapshoot. If they do get to kill someone, we have to hope too that they make a helpful choice, as usual.

Of course, it's all completely random and we can't predict what will happen, but it's good for us to get discussion going by considering the possible outcomes.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well! The next step is figure out how those prints got there! They are animal prints, but I don't see animals in our company - therefore the animals must have turned into people. And we all know who turns into people - witches! And what do we do with witches? We burn them! And what else burns? Wood! And since woods floats, and ducks also float, the killers must weigh the same as a duck! Do we happen to have a set of scales in the inn? This could blow the whole mystery out of the water!

Wow, I've missed this place so much

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- also, consequently, my maths say that if the bear and his lover choose to side with the wolves, then the worst case scenario is that we can have a total out in the open vote conspiracy that can make the village lose as early as Day4.

......

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

So I'm off to work. Depending on how busy I am today I should be able to pop on a few times.

edt: ah, page 2! x'ed since Agan

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

Come on, when don't you suspect me on Day1?

And as reply to Volo and Wilwa:

Let's assume a worst case scenario. That is we lynch only innocents, the wolves and the bear kill only innocents, the seer doesn't dream of wolves, the ranger doesn't make saves and the hunter doesn't kill a wolf.

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

Okay, I screwed up my maths a bit earlier because I somehow counted that we would be 5 + 2 +3 on Day4. In that case, the wolves and the lovers might just all have revealed and teamed up after one innocent has voted. (Given that both teams would have reason to assume the innocent is innocent.) Now I see we're only screwed on Day5 if everything goes wrong.

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

And see, Volo, someone proved Lommy's ominous maths wrong.

I should probably shut up though. I seem to have created a habit of making a fool of myself on Day1. *would insert a self ironic smiley if I hadn't run out of the quota* I'll be back later!


edit: xed with Wyth and Kit!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

....

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks.

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

Really it'll only get super easy if we get rid of the double night kills early, if that happens than yeah we have a huge advantage number wise. But as long as we lose two people per night our numbers are going to dwindle very fast. Hopefully we just get lucky with lynches or the baddies do accidentally kill each other. Could really go any way here. One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden.

And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other.

(I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

"There is only one god, yeast, and when it refuses to rise we say 'not today'."

Heh, I like that.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Well, the Lions should be the main focus, as there are more of them. The bear kills too though, and the lack of a specific allegiance always seems to make it much harder to spot.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm the Targaryen!

Originally Posted by Volo

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

I'm more concerned about last-minute shifts of allegiance. Lovers will be looking constantly to see which was the wind blows, though it is certainly in their best interest to hunt Lions.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.

I think this is sensible. At least a Cobbler won't be killing us at Night.

[Gil-Galad]

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

Whatever happens happens, but i feel a hunt for the bear first would be a waste of effort on our part. Balance the playing field and hunt us some lions.