WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Thinlómien]

I should've knocked on wood yesterDay when I said this game seems almost too easy despite the werebear...

We should - obviously - look at Wilwa's post and try to figure out her Night1 dream and look at Galadriel's posts to see if there are any clues why the wolves wanted to kill her. Not doing that now as my time is limited, instead replying to stuff from toDay (reading and writing simultaneously so apologies if I repeat somebody's points):

Originally Posted by Volo

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

Now that you provided the link, I had a look at the list myself, and here it is:

Originally Posted by G55

Did not stand out:
Eonwe
Enca (much too little impression of her yet, and my first game with her and all)
Zil - not much to say about him. He poked around but didn't stand out either way
Boro - see above
Kit - ditto
Greenie - didn't know the game is on
Rikae - doesn't feel innocent, but also doesn't feel guilty
Cop - somewhat crazy, but otherwise ok / no impression.
Nog - seems more absent than not, or maybe my impressions of him just got lost in the sea of posts and players.
sally - blank on her.

Eomer - picks and pokes, but looks ok.
Lommy - more flambuoyant than I remember, but no feeling either way.
Lottie - gives good vibes.
wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.
Nerwen - looks like her usual self. Too early and too little posts from her to declare "feels innocent", but it's getting there.
Wyth - not much from him, eh? He made one pretty good point, then backed down. I'd say, good point, backing down like that is not the greatest strategy but I've done worse. I would not vote him either way, this being his first game, but even without that I wouldn't vote him. Good vibes maybe?
Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Gil - I don't like the way he posts, but he posts this way. I tend to give more slack for erratic and careless playing styles than most others, and this game is no exception. When I read his posts, I look more at the content than at how he says it.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.
skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate.
G55 - my lovely innocent self.

Obviously if the wolves thought she was the seer, it was not anything from the first category. If I recally correctly, she did defend Wilwa quite a lot so she might have seemed seerish in that way? Or looking at the list above, Nerwen? Or what about Lottie "giving good vibes" and nothing else? Evil!Mac and evil!Volo seem like options too, but I think they were both suspected more by someone else, and the phrasing is not especially seerish at least in this post. Should obviously look at her other posts for more seerish phrasings or things that could have been interpreted as gifted hints. (I guess calling herself "my lovely innocent self" can't count as a gifted hint to anyone??)

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

If that's the only instance she names people innocent, I'm a bit worried. Usually seers make sure their dreams can be figured out if they die (should maybe check Wilwa's posts if she left us any code) but using just this, I'm feeling slightly better about Boro, because if she was putting her known innocent there she would've put him first, right?

Also, as interesting as it is, people shouldn't concentrate half as much on why the bear killed Wilwa. The bear is not our primary lynch target at the moment.

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

Aaaaand that's the end of page 5, running out of time now, so only getting to page 6 later toDay. Until then!

[Nerwen]

Finally, my take on the Night-kills

Wilwa

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).


Galadriel55

This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.

Yes, but the longer a hunter survives, the more chance he or she has of choosing the right target. I'm not saying that's how our particular lions operate, mind you, but I think it's a reasonable strategy.

Edit: typo

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

Good point. If they were really sure, framing the bear would be the best way for the wolves to dispose of him.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

Agreed. The Lions (Bear too) obviously would have had an interest in getting the Seer, but anyone with a nervy/Gifted vibe could draw their attention.

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

x/d with Rikae and Nog

[Nogrod]

The issue of the Skip-wagon...

Yeah. Both instinct and experience say there should be lion(s) there.

Still I'd like to add a qualification to the pot, and that is the fact that the lions really need to do that kind of thing only if one (or two) of them is - or there is some reason for them to believe is going to be - under pressure.

If the lions have no problems, they normally love to make the kind of "insignificant" votes aka. not ones that lead into lynches as then they are not responsible of lynching an innocent others will look so closely the next Day (the power of a succesful wolf-on-wolf lynch-vote is exactly the mirror-image of the aforementioned principle!). But if one (or two) of them is in trouble, they'd love to hop any wagon that would go faster than the one including one of them.


Skip-wagon look pretty fishy looking at the reasons people gave for their votes, but the more votes Skip gathered, the easier it was to give one more.

So were the lions in trouble then when Skip-wagon got some speed? That depends on whether some of them had already garnered suspicion - or votes even - before the Skip-mania started.


People who got votes before the Skip-train started rolling were: Gil, Lottie and Inzil.

Of those Lottie received her vote after she had herself already given Skip his first vote. Looks the most innocent of the three - which does not mean she is innocent by any default because of the order of the votes.

Gil voted a lot later for Boro when Skip already had 5 votes - which could be said to be almost a throwaway vote, and exactly kind of vote a lion might wish to do (see above). So not involved with Skip whose death had a high probability at the time of his vote.

Inzil again is interestingly involved both in being voted and suspected by a few people - and pushing Skip into clear lead by his vote. From this POV he looks the most suspicious to me. But is that enough to lynch him... I'm not sure.

Kitanna didn't have a vote herself at the time she voted for Skip but she could be seen as one of the key-players in opening the path to the Skip-wagon being the second voter - and Wilwa notoriusly was the third before Inzil. But Im not sure how confident I am with that thought either.

Food for thought, then.


EDIT: X'd with some novels...

[Gil-Galad]

I am here and reading, but as I have an exam tomorrow to study for I won't be as involved today. No promises if I can get back and vote. Even if I do, my vote might not be educated but another gut one.

I will never get tired of the "Gil will be Gil" reasonings.

x'd with Rikae

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nog

EDIT: X'd with some novels...

Sorry, that was indeed a long-drawn epic. (Blame the setting?) You should all just skip to the conclusion.

Edit: x'd since Nog.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kit

This was in response to the suggestion the lions were trying to knock out the hunter. I'm not suggesting they know who the gifteds are. I'm saying if they were targeting gifteds, aside from the seer, they'd want to try to find the ranger over the hunter.

And that still implies "knowing who the gifteds are". Yes, the lions would surely rather kill one of the more dangerous gifteds, but they'd have to find them first.

[Kitanna]

A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.

Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.

Originally Posted by Mac

1. Skip -> Gil
2. Lottie -> Skip (because she didn't like his vote, fair enough)
3. Sally -> Lottie (because reasons)
4. Boro -> Inzil (why?)
5. Kitanna -> Skip-2 (suspiciously placed, moving skip ahead of a four tie, but her reasoning feels innocent)
6. Wilwa -> Skip-3 (if Wilwa was still alive, this vote would look horrible)
7. Inzil -> Skip-4 (badly placed and badly reasoned. Inzil had a vote as well, so maybe part of him choosing the bandwaggon was self-preservation)
8. Gala -> Mac (boo)
9. Rikae -> Wilwa (a vote for the known seer is yucky, but I don't think she could have had any such suspicion; her reasons are solid)
10. Encai -> Nogrod (not sure about this one)
11. Eonwe -> Skip-5 (comes out of nowhere and adds vote #5. If he was a baddie, he could have found a less obvious place for his vote...)
12. Wyth22 -> Mac-2 (... like this)
13. Mac -> Inzil-2 (... or this )
14. Gil -> Boro (still spreading the vote at this late point, but then, Gil is Gil)
15. Lommy -> Wilwa-2 (spent the last hour vote-counting, reasoning is so-so)
16. Green -> Mac-3 (not happy about this one, but I can see where she's coming from)
17. Nogrod -> Mac-4 (this one I like less, as he's mostly using the point Greenie made; and riding a counter-bandwaggon is always better than riding the original one or throwing the vote away; if Inzil is a lion, Nog's vote looks not so good (Greenie's, too))
18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
19. Eomer -> Inzil-3 (at this late point, he's effectively throwing his vote away, too, though less obviously)

Galadriel voted first, but we all know she's innocent.
Then Wyth, who today has seemed extra defensive. I'm guessing because

Either way, I'm not so sure. This might make my strategy a bit weak, but I'm still figuring things out around here.

^this was in his vote post from D1.
Then Greenie, who hadn't really said anything of note that I remember.
And finally Nog,

Originally Posted by Mac

So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?

That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)

Which, correct me if I'm wrong, I read as Nog viewing Mac more as a lover, than a lion.

I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.

That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.

I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.

I'm going to vote in an hour or so, so I can get some RL work done. I'm not sure who I'll vote for, but my top three picks are Zil, Wyth, or Enca for the moment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Steve

I think that was just a typo. Because otherwise the sentence makes no sense.

Yes, I think he must have meant, "I was *not* the first vote". (He was the fourth vote.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, I think he must have meant, "I was *not* the first".

Yes, I assumed he meant "not the first vote".

Edit: I was addressing "I was the first to suspect", which he clearly meant.

[Eönwë]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac Connington's - or should we call him Mr. Griff - toying with the Targaryen-revealment is probably the only thing that caught my eye thus far. Although I'm not sure I can see a reason for anyone to do that kind of thing (be it a correct or a false hint). *baffled*

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What Greenie Reed just quoted...

That is an interesting phrasing indeed! Especially when the ex-Lannister Skip has been talking about the numbers being good for the village...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

G55 and Mac probably aren't both lions (see G55's vote on Mac - unnecessary on D1 especially as Mac had been suspected by a couple of people already). But one of then could very well be (I'd rather vote G55).

Unsure if he'd put this suspicion out there if a lion, because if he were planning on killing G55 at the time, he would be leading to a Mac lynch. At the same time, it would be good dissociation if a Mac lynch were inevitable in the future and he could chime in with a past suspicion and look good.[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Does anyone think this is a bit far-fetched defence? Mac clearly said the numbers "maybe" were on Skip's side but...

Lovers? Would be a Bear and a Maiden Fair indeed...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay.

So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?

That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)

++ Mac

Seems pretty one-sided. My suspicions based on posting start on Day 2, but given the fact that Nog gives Mac his 4th vote when Skip only had 5, he actually seems pretty innocent. I'm not sure if he's that crazy. There is some "would a lion really do this?", but then he actually follows through and votes. I will still look at Day 2, but I'm somewhat less suspicious of Nog now.



Day 2

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

Brings the focus back to Mac. A subtle way to avoid being made a target, or a way to look helpful without directly incriminating a packmate?

In this post Nog tries to deny that the lions would have chosen G55 because of her suspicion of Mac. He also claims that he saw G55's evil side on D1 but her good only now she's dead. If he's a lion, it could be a good way to justify both times he went for her (the latter successfully).

Mild suspicion from Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Or they killed her for a different reason - maybe they had no clue on the seer yet. If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.

She's obviously not a no-trail kill, but maybe a false-trail one? In that case the lions would be found among the people she didn't suspect in #107. Unfortunately, that doesn't exactly narrow down the list.

On a side note, wouldn't it be interesting if they were? With him just saying it right there.

This could go either way:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Depends. If the lions tried to kill the seer unsuccessfully, then they should analyze the kill themselves thoroughly, subtly emphasizing whatever points the other ways, hoping the majority of the village just goes along and is too lazy to look for themselves. If they made a no/false trail kill, then they can just sit back and watch the village mess up.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nogrod - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was ready to lynch Mac yesterDay before Skip as the wagon looked so spurious (actually Eönwë's late joining was the deciding thing and didn't gain the attention it deserved - fault also on me in that, as I only just remembered it now).

Now I'm a bit torn that we have the same candidates as yesterDay up front... yesterDay I would have felt fine but now it seems many are also sticking to Zil as an easy vote as well.

Blah.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bear goes then... I do hope.

++ Mac

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. This looks ridiculous right now. Where are you people?

I might have wished to vote Kit.

I really don't know. I wouldn't put it past Nog to be such a bold lion, but voting for a packmate two Nights in a row at crucial moments is pretty extreme. The last few posts could go either way. I wouldn't put it past him to show that sort of regret (maybe?) at voting Mac as a way to make himself not look like a lion trying to look like a villager (i.e. being quiet because he knows the outcome and then rejoicing in the victory), and also set up the next Day's Kit kill. If he is a lion, he probably was genuinely frustrated that he was a major force in pushing Mac's death unnecessarily (no overwhelming rush of Mac votes from the remaining 4).

Overall, I'd say he seems less suspicious to me than when I started based on his Mac connections, but I wouldn't rule him out.