WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

I'm not sure. Looking back, I see that Mac did a similar list without suspecting anyone, and Lommy also did one without really suspecting anyone (she suspected G55 but only for being quite passionate in discussion, apparently).

G55's list, however, had two clear suspicions. I think her case against Mac at least made sense; but to claim that Volo 'rubbed her the wrong way' and was a certain vote candidate... there might be something to that.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here, reading, and very, very slowly working through an analysis of Day 1. As I mentioned in the admin thread, on Day 1 my internet cut out part way through page 2, which is why I couldn't vote. But I absolutely must vote toDay.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me.

Saying someone looks nervous isn't necessarily pointing them out to baddies as "hey look, (insert role)."

Originally Posted by Volo

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.

If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

Originally Posted by Nog

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

The "lynch a lion" post was odd. And doesn't scream seer at all, but rather frustrated innocent. But as Nog pointed

Originally Posted by G55
I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

That does look a bit seerish. Which points to Lottie, me, Zil, Eonwe. Though I'm not sure when she made that remark so it may not include all of the surviving Skip voters.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting.

Nog and Eomer could be steering the conversation back to lions in the same attempt to be helpful as contributing to the lovers' kill as well. Clever lions can steer us in all sorts of directions in an attempt to be "helpful."

Originally Posted by Wyth

You'll have to excuse me being defensive, this is my first experience being accused. Though it is still a Wolfy thing to do by distracting people with farfetched ideas that were pretty plainly taken as jokes, while also implicating someone who had voted on you.

And the defensiveness continues.

[Eönwë]

Ok, I think I've finally read up on yesterDay.

The village voted Kit because of this post!?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The village voted Kit because of this post!?

A straight answer, I think, would be "no". But it would be a part of the reasoning for some (like me). I mean it's not only the "slip" (which turned out not to be a slip after all) of kind of letting it be seen in between the lines that she knows no lions were mentioned aka. she knows who they are because she is one herself - but also that it defends Mac who then turned out a lion...

But I think her relation with Mac (mutual) were the first reasons to vote for her - and her own votes the second reason, this maybe coming as the third important or something... but yeah, let's continue as these cases have been argued like dozen times already by several people. So I mean next time someone asks "why did you lynch Kit" I'd only say "read the thread" as many people have stated these reasons quite clearly quite many times already.



But this spotting by Eönwë I do appreciate as at least I had totally overseen/forgotten it:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

So does he imply he knew Mac was a lion? It as also interestin g to follow the bickering between Mac and Inzil recollected. Somehow it feels a bit overdone if they would be both lions, but it is also possible that with both gaining suspicions and them tslking themselves into these dead-end alleys they were kind of forced to follow their susoicions with votes... Who knows? But certainly one more scenario to mull over - or at least one we should not overlook.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions.

Like urging us to concentrate on the lionhunt - and speaking against wasting time on Bear-speculations? Like saying let's go back to Mac-bussiness as that is where we have any hints there could be? Very unhelpful direction indeed... Could you Rikae tell us which would be more helpful directions?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So does he imply he knew Mac was a lion? It as also interestin g to follow the bickering between Mac and Inzil recollected. Somehow it feels a bit overdone if they would be both lions, but it is also possible that with both gaining suspicions and them tslking themselves into these dead-end alleys they were kind of forced to follow their susoicions with votes... Who knows? But certainly one more scenario to mull over - or at least one we should not overlook.

That quote and back-and-forth with Rikae was about her saying G55 might have been killed as a possible Hunter. I replied that since she had suspected Mac I thought that if Mac were a Lion, taking her out would be a risk I wouldn't take myself. I fail to see what's suspicious about that.
I'm trying to not see Eönwë as a potential Lion boring in on a perceived easy lynch, but the possibility has gone through my mind.

[WythDryden]

I'd daresay the case for Inzil is not looking good for him at the moment. Taking a look at just the lynch-votes for a second. Of the skip voters, there are only 3 people left alive (and it was a pretty accepted theory day 2 that at least one of the lions was living in that group). Those people are Lottie, Eonwe, and Inzil (thus far, I've felt pretty trustful of Lottie and Eonwe, so I hope that doesn't come back to bite me). Next, the remaining kit voters are Greenie, Inzil, Encai, Myself, Lottie, Lommy, and Nog. Both Inzil and Lottie are here, so it doesn't look good for Lottie, but as I mentioned before I'm leaning more towards Inzil being the evil one, other posts considered. Hasn't seemed to be acting entirely weird toDay though..

Edit: X'd since Nog

[Nogrod]

Oh, and asking to clarify the winning-conditions was the most unhelpful thing I presume...

Originally Posted by Zil

That quote and back-and-forth with Rikae was about her saying G55 might have been killed as a possible Hunter. I replied that since she had suspected Mac I thought that if Mac were a Lion, taking her out would be a risk I wouldn't take myself. I fail to see what's suspicious about that.

This is why Werewolf is so darn hard and fun to play - the same sentence can stem from different positions... it can be like you said that you were just speculating that if Mac was a lion and if you were a lion you wouldn't have taken that kind of a risk - or, if you actually were a lion with Mac you might have slipped that you wouldn't have done that were you him... Hmm... putting it openly in this way actually gives me second thoughts... yeah, the latter interpretation doesn't make that much sense - or at least makes less sense I tohught earlier it would.


EDIT: X'd with at least this page...

[Eönwë]

So, other than basic suspicion based on the Skipwaggon the Day before, the first real post I found to suspect Kit is Nog's:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:

I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

Then:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Kitanna - I can't pinpoint it, but something in her posting seems wrong to me, as does the fact that people have been defending her left and right even though she's hardly been under any suspicion toDay.

And then the start of the slip discussion:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Didn't mention any lions? Meaning what?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And Greenie: good catch (again) about Kitanna! Can you proofread my thesis when I finally get around to writing it?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, I didn't even register that! What the-?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, Kit, now that you're here-

Indeed. Meaning what?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seemed to me that she meant "it's possible she didn't mention any lions which would make her a random choice". In fact, that's the only way the stuff about Mac and Volo makes sense.

x'd with Rikae's previous post, but already finding more reasons to suspect Kit:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Kitanna - Confuses me. I'm not sure what to make of her saying that Gal didn't mention any lions (although it's more than possible that I just didn't understand what she meant), and I agree with Lommy about the strangeness of people defending her so strongly when nobody really suspects her.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not super happy with the three who have already got some votes; I don't suspect Encai or Eomer and have no idea about Inzil. I'd prefer Mac or Kitanna toDay, would be okay with Lommy, Copper or Loslote too.

Second time it gets quoted, this time with even less context!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That was actually kind of mind-blowing - and I know I read the very same sentence earlier myself but didn't catch it...

Now this would be a slip of the year indeed! I mean yeah, how does she know she didn't mention any lions unless she knew who they were aka being one herself?

Could it be this easy? Probably not...

But I'm going to go back and see whom she actually left without notice (the first part of her list everyone - mysef included - have kind of ignored as "not seerish").

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wavering between Encai and Kit...

Inzil is a better choice than Mac, but not really too keen on either.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I almost feel like I'd prefer Kit over Mac after all, but bringing in yet another candidate seems a bit silly at this point.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

bah, I think this Mac-Inzil war is leading nowhere.

++Kitanna

Conclusion: Definitely something fishy. Just because so many people latched onto it already without checking (or at least pretending not to check) the context. If you're going to claim it's a slip, at least it should seem pretty convincing. But in this case, it only really looks like a slip without the context. And, I mean, a sentence that actually makes sense is always far more likely than one that doesn't and is also a slip (Sorry, started ranting there). Anyway, my point is that I don't think that everyone who latched onto it had the best intentions. Both Nog and Lommy were already suspecting Kit, so perhaps they could've overlooked it, being clouded by suspicion, but usually they're quite careful, so it seems unlikely that it's the case for both. And as was already proven by this point, pointing out a 'slip' (I'm not even confident that Mac's was one anyway, not that it matters now) is an easy way to spread a suspicion. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the three turned out to be a lion.

One more thing to note: mention of the 'slip' disappears after Rikae and Kit explain it away, but Lommy and Nog are still much more keen to lynch her after it's discovery. This could go either way: either it helped inflame their suspicions, or they're determined to have her as a lynch candidate.

[Coppermirror]

Well, I've got to vote, or I'll be modfired. I'm going to bed now and I won't be back before the deadline. Unfortunately, though my long post has got me up to speed on what was going on in the game, it hasn't found anyone I intensely suspect. I'm going to have to make the best guess I can.

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!

It's not that I'm saying they could discount that possibility entirely. But, I wouldn't say that the size of the Inn is something irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Hmm. No, I wasn't meaning to say that I was entirely dismissing the possibility of Lommy being a villain. It's not at all safe to do that. What I was thinking was that the risk might make it less likely for her to be certain roles. That doesn't mean that villains won't ever take risks.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

I could see the placement of his vote as something a Lion would do, but I do think it would have been more desirable for one to have placed a bandwagon vote in the middle.

What were the throwaway votes? As in, people voting seemingly at random (maybe trying to avoid a bandwagon to look better)?

x/d with Enca

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here and reading.

Instead of making a mega-post later, I'm trying to post in bits and pieces what posts made after my last one give rise to. The downside of course is that some of the issues might have been discussed at length already but I just haven't gotten there yet, but still I think a bit shorter posts make reading much lighter...


So I'm turning towards the belief that the lions were not after the seer last Night. But what Rikae said is kind of a nice possibility beside a more common no-trace or false-trace kill.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

We should think about that.

What Volo said actually sounds possible: maybe G55's style (on top of things but yet a bit odd) yelled "a role"(!) to the lions? Like they lost nothing by going after her as it would be nice both ways whether she'd be a gifted or a lover? That sounds actually pretty reasonable.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

I do get this vivid picture of Tywin Lannister watching as others do his bloody work...

While on SOIAF-ground I just have to add Nerwen on Wilwa's death:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point.

No! The Bear killed a Mormont! A rival! You know how jealous lovers can be, they can stand no competition...

[Loslote]

I should have more time to post toDay than I did yesterDay, but I am still posting from work, so it might be sporadic.

I noticed yesterDay that Zil's posts were cautious and non-confrontational, and that hasn't changed toDay. On top of that, he was right in the middle of the skip bandwagon, which, if there is a lion in that bandwagon (and I'd be surprised if there wasn't), that's probably the most likely place to find it.

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away, which is not what you would expect if a lion feels himself threatened. However, if Mac had died, Zil would have looked pretty good because of that vote, which makes me suspect that, if Mac is a lion, Zil is likely one of his packmates.

I don't know that it works the other way, though - that is, if Zil turns out to be a lion, I don't think we can say anything concrete about Mac. The other issue is that I don't know Mac's playing style very well. I am suspicious of him, but my suspicion comes more from the fact that a lot of little things point to him being evil than any one big tip-off. His vote yesterDay is, as I have already said, odd, but it doesn't prove anything. His posts seem a little nervous to me, but I don't know his playing style very well, so I can't put much stock in that. G55 suspected him and might have been killed for looking like a seer, but that's a loose connection and I don't know how far we can trust that. His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

All that to say, I think Zil and Mac look the most suspicious toDay, and I'll try to look into them a bit more if I have the time.

Pre-edit: I've probably xed, because this took me a while to write, so...preemptively xed since Zil's #233.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

if Mac is a lion, Zil is likely one of his packmates.

I knew it! I knew they were packmates, and then I second guessed it! By yesterDay, I'd pretty much decided Zil was innocent after all. Great job catching our last lion, Team Bear!

This was probably the most fun I've had with a werewolf game in ages, so thanks, Agan and Kath - excellent job!

Good game, everyone!

[Nogrod]

Okay. G55 seems not a person whose posting screams seerishness... which I think many of you have noticed already before me.

But I'd still like to put forth a couple of things I think merit consideration.


First of all, she was the one the lions (wolves) killed and it is absolutely their priority to kill the seer asap. Whether the bear got lucky/unlucky by hitting the real seer is another question and isn't of importance discussing G55 and who the lions are.


Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.


She also made one interesting remark about those who had voted Skip (or were openly suspecting him) - not so much what she said but how she said it: (underlining mine)

Originally Posted by G55

I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

In her list-post Eomer already referred to she makes this to and fro with Skip but openly suspects two people: Mac and Volo.

Here's what she says:

Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.

Like you see, her suspicion on Mac is quite specified relating to his posting - even if a bit contradictory. Volo on the other hand is handled with a lot less detail aka. "some early posting rubbed her the wrong way"...

So if she was thought of being the seer because of her suspicions, I'd say Volo is a more believble candidate than Mac as she took pains to actually specify her suspicion on Mac in posting-terms.


Then again she clearly defended Wilwa (and Lottie "gives good vibes") but that was mostly grounded on specifics about her posting - so not exactly a seer-hint either (like Lottie could have been - but that positiveness was maybe too shallow to raise any interest from the lions).

So if the lions were not going after her having spotted one of them (Volo? Mac maybe less believably?), then it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her: too self-assured and knoweldgeable (or putting too much effort) not to be an ordo and odd enough to try and raise some suspicion as to not be the "one everyone trusts and therefore to be done with"?


Hard to say.

It's 3AM and I'm to bed. See you later toDay.

[Macalaure]

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.

Then there's several posts of role discussion, during which she strangely grows more and more irritated.

Big list in #107. The two that stand out are Volo and me. Her suspicion of Volo comes without real reason, but it wouldn't make me point at her and scream "seer" if I were him. Shortly after she votes for me.

She's still around after her vote, defending Skip and receiving some criticism for it from Nogrod and Rikae (oddly, neither of them Skip voters themselves).


The only people who could've thought they've been dreamt of if they're lions are Wyth and Volo, and it's a stretch for both. If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate.

Or they killed her for a different reason - maybe they had no clue on the seer yet. If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.

She's obviously not a no-trail kill, but maybe a false-trail one? In that case the lions would be found among the people she didn't suspect in #107. Unfortunately, that doesn't exactly narrow down the list.

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.

LOL. Even IF I were a lion, taking her out based off the joke she made in that post would be: A.) drawing unnecessary attention to myself (and a bit suspicious), and B.) far too blatant on her part to be considered for being a raven. We know now that she was not the raven, but it wouldn't be in her best interest as coming off as being such anyways as they have a generally short lifespan from what I understand. A more subtle tactic would be a wiser move. Such as deflecting suspicion away from yourself, and towards a person who voted for you? >;-P

[Inziladun]

Amidst the other discussions, the voting yesterDay should be examined, I think. I may not have time tonight, since it's bedtime soon, but I'll give it a shot tomorrow if someone else doesn't beat me to it.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.

It was far-fetched, but what are you going to do on Day One? However, if too many people discuss roles and strategy instead of trying to poke holes into each other to see if there's something furry hidden inside, then lions and bears do benefit.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

why Boro and Zil exactly?

Boro was pure gut feeling. Inzil was very quick to suspect me over something minor early on. I did mention that in one of my posts... somewhere.

Originally Posted by Wyth

LOL. Even IF I were a lion, taking her out based off the joke she made in that post would be: A.) drawing unnecessary attention to myself (and a bit suspicious), and B.) far too blatant on her part to be considered for being a raven. We know now that she was not the raven, but it wouldn't be in her best interest as coming off as being such anyways as they have a generally short lifespan from what I understand. A more subtle tactic would be a wiser move. Such as deflecting suspicion away from yourself, and towards a person who voted for you? >;-P

Wow, you're being defensive. I said it was a stretch, but now I do suspect you.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Amidst the other discussions, the voting yesterDay should be examined, I think. I may not have time tonight, since it's bedtime soon, but I'll give it a shot tomorrow if someone else doesn't beat me to it.

I was just thinking this as well as I was reading everything. Looking at Gal and Wilwa is good, but as some have noted, the trails don't lead far given we are only onto day 2.

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

I need to look at the case against Mac as well, I do admit I am not sure entirely the reason but will read up on it.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.

I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.

Just to clarify:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)

Factually, it is a throwaway vote. I hadn't realized that only me, Noggie, Eomer and Nerwen, who didn't vote, were remaining. Noggie was musing about voting G55 so I thought of joining him rather than voting someone I didn't think was a Lion (strategically it might have been more sensible to actively choose between skip, wilwa and Mac, but I had a gut feeling, I wanted non of them lynched...). So I xd with Noggie.

I'll conclude, that wilwa didn't leave a hint on her Dream. Prudent of her. Doesn't make sense to speculate what role she could have Dreamed of.

Unfortunately, this doesn't leave me with much.

[Thinlómien]

I should've knocked on wood yesterDay when I said this game seems almost too easy despite the werebear...

We should - obviously - look at Wilwa's post and try to figure out her Night1 dream and look at Galadriel's posts to see if there are any clues why the wolves wanted to kill her. Not doing that now as my time is limited, instead replying to stuff from toDay (reading and writing simultaneously so apologies if I repeat somebody's points):

Originally Posted by Volo

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

Now that you provided the link, I had a look at the list myself, and here it is:

Originally Posted by G55

Did not stand out:
Eonwe
Enca (much too little impression of her yet, and my first game with her and all)
Zil - not much to say about him. He poked around but didn't stand out either way
Boro - see above
Kit - ditto
Greenie - didn't know the game is on
Rikae - doesn't feel innocent, but also doesn't feel guilty
Cop - somewhat crazy, but otherwise ok / no impression.
Nog - seems more absent than not, or maybe my impressions of him just got lost in the sea of posts and players.
sally - blank on her.

Eomer - picks and pokes, but looks ok.
Lommy - more flambuoyant than I remember, but no feeling either way.
Lottie - gives good vibes.
wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.
Nerwen - looks like her usual self. Too early and too little posts from her to declare "feels innocent", but it's getting there.
Wyth - not much from him, eh? He made one pretty good point, then backed down. I'd say, good point, backing down like that is not the greatest strategy but I've done worse. I would not vote him either way, this being his first game, but even without that I wouldn't vote him. Good vibes maybe?
Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Gil - I don't like the way he posts, but he posts this way. I tend to give more slack for erratic and careless playing styles than most others, and this game is no exception. When I read his posts, I look more at the content than at how he says it.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.
skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate.
G55 - my lovely innocent self.

Obviously if the wolves thought she was the seer, it was not anything from the first category. If I recally correctly, she did defend Wilwa quite a lot so she might have seemed seerish in that way? Or looking at the list above, Nerwen? Or what about Lottie "giving good vibes" and nothing else? Evil!Mac and evil!Volo seem like options too, but I think they were both suspected more by someone else, and the phrasing is not especially seerish at least in this post. Should obviously look at her other posts for more seerish phrasings or things that could have been interpreted as gifted hints. (I guess calling herself "my lovely innocent self" can't count as a gifted hint to anyone??)

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

If that's the only instance she names people innocent, I'm a bit worried. Usually seers make sure their dreams can be figured out if they die (should maybe check Wilwa's posts if she left us any code) but using just this, I'm feeling slightly better about Boro, because if she was putting her known innocent there she would've put him first, right?

Also, as interesting as it is, people shouldn't concentrate half as much on why the bear killed Wilwa. The bear is not our primary lynch target at the moment.

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

Aaaaand that's the end of page 5, running out of time now, so only getting to page 6 later toDay. Until then!

[Nerwen]

Finally, my take on the Night-kills

Wilwa

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).


Galadriel55

This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.

Yes, but the longer a hunter survives, the more chance he or she has of choosing the right target. I'm not saying that's how our particular lions operate, mind you, but I think it's a reasonable strategy.

Edit: typo

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

Good point. If they were really sure, framing the bear would be the best way for the wolves to dispose of him.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

Agreed. The Lions (Bear too) obviously would have had an interest in getting the Seer, but anyone with a nervy/Gifted vibe could draw their attention.

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

x/d with Rikae and Nog

[A Little Green]

Here very briefly before having to dash off. Firstly, whether the bear intended to kill the seer or not, I'm betting the lions are having a really good time right now. As for their Gal kill, I think it's possible they got gifted vibes off her. As Nog or someone pointed out, she did behave a little differently from her usual style. She seemed more involved and agitated than usual, which would probably have stood out to anyone who's played with her before. But I don't really buy the argument of her death incriminating Mac (although he has enough incriminating him as it is) or Volo, unless they are really twitchy lions. I'd like to still reread Gal at some point but definitely don't have the time for that now.

Originally Posted by Kit

The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.

Originally Posted by Kit

Easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting.

Hmm? I know the feeling, but still, something about the phrasing of this rubs me the wrong way. Like, "look, he did this suspicious thing, not that I'm accusing him of course".

Now I really have to be off, but I'll be back later!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

I agree that the Wilwa discussion hasn't really gone anywhere - she didn't leave much of a trail as a seer, and I don't know why she was targeted by the lovers, but I feel like if the lovers were looking for a seer candidate, there were more likely options.

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting. Instead, he (and Eomer, who followed Nog's lead and looked into G55's posts) bring our attention back to the person the lions actually did kill, and who might have been an attempt at the seer. I think that reflects very well on both of them.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I agree with this. I think, if G55 was killed as a likely seer target, Volo was probably the reason why. Moreover, since there wasn't a huge backlash against him until later in the Day, I also think it's very unlikely the lions were attempting to frame him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lottie

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55.

Depends. If the lions tried to kill the seer unsuccessfully, then they should analyze the kill themselves thoroughly, subtly emphasizing whatever points the other ways, hoping the majority of the village just goes along and is too lazy to look for themselves. If they made a no/false trail kill, then they can just sit back and watch the village mess up.

I haven't paid much attention to toDay's posting yet, so I'll go do that now.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

If you're a lion on Night 2 with no better leads on the seer than "someone suspected one of us in a list in an ordinary way", killing that person is a good way to create a trail back to yourself to kill what's probably (and was) an ordo. Not wise. A lot of people threw around vague suspicions on Day 1, as usual, without being seers. After all, the odds are against the seer's first dream being a baddie, in general, on Day 1.

Nope, I don't think it was an attempt on the seer at all. I think perhaps that was the false trail they hoped to set out for us - look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!

The most seerish comment was from our actual seer, about Mac or about her list of trusted people, though even that isn't much. Still, Boro, Kit, Nerwen, Mac and I are all fairly likely early seer dreams.

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

At any rate, I really think we ought to look at the people who are playing it safe, people the 'trail', such as it is, conveniently bypasses.

Reading quickly over yesterDay, Eomer's posting struck me as very safe, basically just amplifying things that were already being said and bantering a bit. Lottie, Kit and Inzil's votes were fishy (so was Eomer's). Boro, of all people, is sleeping under the reindeer. I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

[Encaitare]

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Apologies for the lack of activity yesterDay– I will try to make up for it toDay.

So, since there has already been much discussion about the two Night-kills, I thought it might be an idea to set out just who said what.

Wilwa (Seer)– killed by Bear

1. Suspected Lion
–Suggested: Kit #170, Volo #174, Nog #180, WythDryden #182, Zil #184 (possibly: wording is ambiguous), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Zil #172 (“weren’t a lot of people talking about the Lovers?)

2. Suspected Seer, who had left a “Bear hint”
–Suggested: Rikae #177 (with the hint being on Mac), Nog #180, WythDryden #182 (“possible, but improbable”), Kit at #186 (unless still referring to her suspected-Lion scenario).
–Disputed: Mac #179 ("If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though”), Enca #185 ("Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent”), Lottie #207 ("didn’t leave much of a trail’).

3. Suspected general special role, based on “nervous” posting
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion”).

4. As a general danger to the Lovers
–Suggested Mac #179 ("Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions”), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Rikae #183 ("simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger”).

5. As a no-trace kill
-Suggested Eomer #192. [This appears to rest on a confusion about who actually killed Wilwa, so may not count]


G55 next.

EDIT:made corrections.

[Nerwen]

Sorry for the delay– RL intervened.

Galadriel55 (Ordo)– killed by Lions

1. Suspected Targaryen
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early?”)
–Disputed: Zil #184 (“would they have really wanted to get the Hunter already, though?”; points out that this scenario would make Mac look good)

2. Suspected Seer
–Suggested: Volo #178 (from list at #107; “dream” = innocent Wilwa/guilty Mac; former more likely), Nog #180 ("So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer”) [At #205, concedes she was “not a person whose posting screams seerishness”], Kit #194 ("Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects.”), Eomer #196 ("G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually”; also suggests it points to Volo and Mac); [Nog #205 thinks Volo more likely], Mac #206 (suggests it could point to Wyth and Volo) [at #206 says this is a “stretch”], Lottie #207 (points at Volo)
-Disputed: Rikae #200 ("Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.”)

3. As a general danger to the Lions
–Suggested: Kit #181 ("Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?”)

3. As a frame
–Suggested (tentatively): Mac #206 ("If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.”)

4. As a false trail
–Suggested: Mac #206, Rikae #214 ("look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!”)

6. Suspected Bear
–Suggested: Rikae #214 ("Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?”)

7. Suspected general special role
–Suggested: Nog #205 ("it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her”). Volo #219 ("I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo”)

Overview/Analysis

Well, as you see it’s quite interesting, but tremendously over-complicated and there are just far too many names to keep track of… wait...