WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rules

lovers. Only win if both survive till the end (regardless of whether it's the Lions or the Inn who win the rest of the game). Can communicate at night. The Bear, being a Werebear, kills one person a night as long as the the Maiden is alive. If one dies, the remaining lover then chooses to help the side that did not kill their lover (that is, becomes effectively an ordo if they're night killed, or cobbler if they're lynched). NB: don't read too much into the choice of gender pronouns.

So.

[Nogrod]

Sally started cobblerism already...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?

Just to quote a few:

Originally Posted by Cop

Kitanna:
In favour of voting her:
Ah. Her Day #2 Enca vote that could have been an attempt to set up an alternative to a Mac (or Inzil) lynch. If somebody was trying to save him, it was most likely to be her.
Possible "no lions" Lionish slip about G55's posts.
Mixed points: Mac puts her on his Day 1 suspicious list, but says it's flimsy - good cover for her?
He continues to hedge at #131 about her and others.
Kit makes lots of mixed statements about Mac's guilt and non-guilt.
At #179 Mac might be trying to suggest one of Kit, Boro and Rikae was dreamed innocent.

Originally Posted by Greenie

++ Kitanna
In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.

Originally Posted by me

Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her.

You can't honestly say Kitanna didn't look suspicious yesterDay. If your confusion about the kills and your reaction to it didn't look so innocent, I'd be very inclined to point a finger at you and say "wolf playing the saint since didn't take part in an innocent lynch", but that I guess would be just knee-jerky suspicion. When I've misjudged something, I don't want it rubbed in my face by the likes of you, Eomer.

Boro's return makes more sense than his actions yesterDay. I feel better about him already, even though it seems we still disagree.

Originally Posted by Boro

I state Kit's vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion...and your mind goes to either...

1. We're lovers (false)
2. I'm a lion latching onto someone I know is innocent (false).

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

It wasn't that you stated that her vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion, it was the dramatic way you pulled a full-blown defense of her quite out of the blue that struck me as weird and not entirely innocent. Yes, as an innocent you can feel pretty confident that another player is innocent too. But my experience from past games tells me that the most flamboyant speeches proclaiming someone's innocence usually come from seers (which you're not) or from wolves overdoing their plan to call someone innocent (because wolves don't have any genuine second-guessing going on).

Originally Posted by Lottie

What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Are you serious?? I don't like the double kills either, but if a village started with as many players as we have now (12) there'd be 3 wolves and we only have 2 to find, so compared to that we're still pretty ok and at least I'm still kind of hoping/assuming the lovers are siding with us because mathematically it makes more sense. Lynching the bear doesn't bring us any closer to victory, but we could theoretically get rid of the wolves toMorrow if we get it right both Days. This suggestion is so fishy that I don't even know what to say. Pretty bold for a wolf, though.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.

So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Plus they might want to target the ranger (or the bear?) and avoid the hunter. But in general I agree with Nogrod's points up there.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Great, so now my brain is tempted to jump from the assumption "Boro was a wolf who knew Kit was innocent" to "Boro was a bear who knew Kit was innocent". That being said, I wonder if the bear and the maiden are laying false trails to other villagers to ensure their lover's survival if they die themselves. Not that we can do much with that piece of speculation (except I can maybe further justify my suspicion of Boro's defense of Kitanna, lol).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.

Maybe they are just messing with our heads. Or getting gifted vibes from these people? Or bear vibes?

What on earth is going on with Sally. Also, since Eomer has been asking the same questions as you, the reasons why Kitanna was voted yesterDay have been and will be repeated.

Originally Posted by Sally

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.

False. It is not mathematically impossible although I agree it's very improbable. (Really, what's with all this crappy math in this game?)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.

Amen to that. I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved ) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun.

I'm going now, and I will be back later, not sure when and for how much time, but I'll be here.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved ) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

I'm just frustrated that I didn't get a chance to post yesterDay, so it's particularly annoying that one of the few people I didn't suspect at all was the one that was chosen, and I couldn't do anything about it. Also, two of the people I suspect quite a bit voted Kitanna and got away with it.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

This is all I said about Kitanna in my analysis:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can't see him outright calling his suspicion for a fellow Lannister “very flimsy”, so I feel better about Kitanna.

So yeah, I'm one of those who "knew" Kitanna was innocent, along with Boro, Eomer and Eonwe. There you go, all four baddies for you.

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions. Innocent Nog might do the same, but he'd do it more blatantly!

Others I don't feel so good about would be Encai (still) and Inzil, for wolf-on-wolfishness.

Unfortunately I'm going to have to vote early toDay.

[Rikae]

Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.

*Adds Lommy to list of suspects*

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.

*Adds Lommy to list of suspects*

Just checking this on my phone and this caught my eye. Please slow down Rikae! I'm sorry if I have misrepresented you. All I said before was that you had been one of those to point out things in Kitanna's defense (this was before you analysed Mac's posts.) Now my impression was that more or less all analysts yesterDay found Kitanna suspicious, if you didn't, then I misremembered.

And to everyone who suspects me, do you really think I would have killed Gil if I was a wolf? That would be plain suicidal, both because there was quite a lot of suspicion against me already yesterDay and because the hunter is still alive. Also I can't fathom why as a wolf would I have every Day talked about how it makes way more sense for the lovers to side with the village. Really, think about it. I have a feeling I'm being set up as a lynch candidate since the beginning of the Day and I don't like it. I don't want to die with such a crappy track record and I don't want to die as a helpless victim of a wolf ploy!

[Eönwë]

Well, it looks like I probably won't have time to look at Kit suspicion yesterDay, and to be honest, that's probably for the best. She just seems to have been scapegoated and pinned with all sorts of small suspicions, and that doesn't really tell us much. What I will say about it though is that Nog brought up the slip again (even though it had already been explained) in #364, Zil entertains it in #365, and Greenie chimes in at #370 Lommy practically mentions as fact in #377.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And to everyone who suspects me, do you really think I would have killed Gil if I was a wolf? That would be plain suicidal, both because there was quite a lot of suspicion against me already yesterDay and because the hunter is still alive. Also I can't fathom why as a wolf would I have every Day talked about how it makes way more sense for the lovers to side with the village. Really, think about it. I have a feeling I'm being set up as a lynch candidate since the beginning of the Day and I don't like it. I don't want to die with such a crappy track record and I don't want to die as a helpless victim of a wolf ploy!

Honestly, this defense makes me more suspicious of you than ever. For one thing, your point about how you wouldn't have killed Gil if you were a lion could easily be one of the reasons you killed him in the first place - so that you'd be able to make that point if suspicion circled around to you.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Also, kind of a meta point against Nog – he isn't suspecting me, or arguing with me. When he's innocent, he pretty much always thinks whatever I'm saying is flagrantly wrong and goes on a crusade against it. I can't imagine I'm suddenly talking sense in his eyes; more likely, he's evil.

I had been ready to suspect you - that had been my reasoning behind voting Kit yesterDay, that one of the two of you were probably a lion - but this looks remarkably innocent. I don't agree with your logic, of course - Nog is one of the people I think looks most innocent out of this whole village - but I don't think this is a move you'd make as a lion. Even if you and Nog were packmates, neither of you were heavily enough suspected to make lion-on-lion worthwhile, and if Rikae was a lion and Nog wasn't, it wouldn't really make sense for Rikae to attack him out of the blue like that, especially not in the absence of players obviously ready to take the bait and run with that suspicion.

In that case, then, I'll have to revise my list:

If these people are evil, they have well and truly fooled me:
Nog
Eomer
Sally

I don't think these people are evil:
Greenie
Wythy D.
Rikae
Eonwe

I wouldn't be surprised if these people were evil, but I could well be wrong:
Zil
Boro

Pretty sure, at this point, that these people are evil:
Lommy
Encai

I'd be willing to vote for any of the four people in the suspicious categories. If we lynch one of the top three, I'll be very put out.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Honestly, this defense makes me more suspicious of you than ever. For one thing, your point about how you wouldn't have killed Gil if you were a lion could easily be one of the reasons you killed him in the first place - so that you'd be able to make that point if suspicion circled around to you.

And you see how that argument is working in my favour? Seriously, when have you last seen a kill pointing at someone resulting in most people thinking that person innocent? And that doesn't remove the fact that had Gil been the hunter, I would quite likely be dead.

Also, what on earth is with this sudden Nogrod-Rikae fight? This looks way too staged to my liking. Our two wolves deciding to go at each other so that one looks more innocent when the other one dies? Or the lovers pretending to have a fight?

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Greenie - the same as before
Eomer - still the confusion

Medium
Boro - sounds more honest toDay, still baffled by his behaviour
Sally - no idea, and not appreciating the emotional manipulation
Wyth - no one should be under the radar this late but he kind of is
Encai - I've suspected her all along but at the moment she's not really the one I'm the most worried about
Lottie - I don't like the way she's been at my throat, but that might be knee-jerk
Inzil - Eönwë's argumentation has made me re-evaluate my conclusion that he and Mac weren't fellows, but I'm still quite unsure

What on earth
Rikae and Nogrod - this staged fight has made me basically re-evaluate everything I thought about them, just what??

You don't even know how tempted I'm to act on Nogrod's suggestion we lynch one of him and Rikae. And obviously I'm not in favour of lynching me toDay, even though that would at least shed light on who's the one that has painted target on my back toDay.


edit: xed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'm not too interested in using the last hour to this, but just pointing at it... Where on earth did you Eönwë get that idea that Kit's "slip" was somehow definitively and positively "explained"? A different interpretation to it was sure given but there was no way of telling which interpretation was correct until after Kit died so by hindsight.

[Encaitare]

I just read through the thread, and here's my list as of now, with names in no particular order:

Probably Innocent
- Boromir - I think he's being bizarre, but I don't think he'd act that way as a Lion
- Greenie - hasn't raised any red flags for me
- Wyth - he's never played before, but I know him rather well IRL and I think he's being genuine

????????
- Lottie
- Eonwe
- Eomer
- Nogrod
- Sally

Suspicious
- Rikae - I wasn't suspicious of her before, but this business with Nogrod makes me wonder if she's a Lion getting nervous
- Lommy - the Gil-kill might be a clever bluff, designed to throw us off her trail, since she was in second place for a lynching yesterDay
- Inzil - Eonwe raised some good points about him, and I was suspicious of him since the beginning

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And you see how that argument is working in my favour? Seriously, when have you last seen a kill pointing at someone resulting in most people thinking that person innocent? And that doesn't remove the fact that had Gil been the hunter, I would quite likely be dead.

Gil was unlikely to be the hunter. If you were a wolf, that might have worried you a little bit, but if you needed to make yourself look better, I don't think the risk would have been too high.

Also, what on earth is with this sudden Nogrod-Rikae fight? This looks way too staged to my liking. Our two wolves deciding to go at each other so that one looks more innocent when the other one dies? Or the lovers pretending to have a fight?

Also doubtful. Neither of them were under a ton of suspicion, there was no need to make a sacrifice gambit at this point. Same goes for the lovers, but even more so - lovers would not pull a sacrifice gambit. They would lose if they pulled a sacrifice gambit. And there wouldn't have been a reason for them to try to separate themselves from each other, either, since they haven't been voting together and they haven't interacted much. I'm pretty sure the Nog-Rikae spat is just between two innocents.

EDIT: xed with Nog and Lommy

[Loslote]

Also, Lommy seems to be doing her best to egg on Nog and Rikae - trying to get the attention off of herself? Or just enjoying watching to non-lions at each others' throats? I don't like how she jumped on that at all.

++Lommy

For her reaction to the Nog-Rikae spat, as well as the other reasons I've listed earlier.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm leaning towards Nogrod's side in this debate with Rikae.

Rikae, if I may ask, what's with your obsession with Enca? I've read all your posts from the last 2 days and I just don't see much of anything there; but you keep repeating you will vote for or suspect Enca for 'previously stated reasons'.

[Eönwë]

Worry me
Lommy - The bad feeling I've had about her still hasn't left, plus there's the Kit stuff.
Nog - Reasons mentioned before (mostly the Mac and Kit stuff)

Worry me slightly less
Zil- For reasons mentioned before, but down a level because I always end up suspecting him.
Encai - There are numerous times when I've read something that doesn't sit right with me, but it's hard to pinpoint anything specific.
Boro - Quiet. Too quiet. And then he jumps in to fight for Kit. Something about that seems off.
Greenie - Seemed overly innocent at the beginning, then the Kit stuff. Might be trying to misguide.
Rikae - Always scares me. And seems to find similar people suspicious, which, in a game with so much uncertainty, makes me wary.

Don't worry me, which worries me
Eomer - Has seemed pretty good so far
Sally - No idea what she was up to yesterDay, but nothing seems particularly evil. She really hasn't said enough though.
Lottie - Has been quite quiet. Nothing particularly incriminating.
WyDry - Still have no idea

Note: Order within categories is just according to the modlist.

edit: x-ed with Lottie

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's see if there is still something in the "Mac-diaries" or other promising leads. If not, then let's lynch Rikae - or me. We can nicely afford even lynching me toDay with the numbers we have if you then lynch her the next Day.

I'm not entirely comfortable with this. An innocent might say that, but so might a Lion trying to look unconcerned. I've done that myself as a baddie before.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Honestly, this defense makes me more suspicious of you than ever. For one thing, your point about how you wouldn't have killed Gil if you were a lion could easily be one of the reasons you killed him in the first place - so that you'd be able to make that point if suspicion circled around to you.

I can see where the Lommy suspicion comes from. I still wonder though why, if she's a Lion, they would have killed one of her voters. It seems reckless and unnecessary, but I guess stranger things have happened.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can see where the Lommy suspicion comes from. I still wonder though why, if she's a Lion, they would have killed one of her voters. It seems reckless and unnecessary, but I guess stranger things have happened.

Most people yesterDay thought Lommy was at least a little fishy, though (the notable exception being Encai, who had her solidly in the middle). The village was roughly divided down the middle between outright suspecting her and thinking she was 'kind of fishy' but not wanting to commit to full-out suspicion yet. She needed something to be able to point to as a solid reason why she isn't a lion, and I think we saw it when she claimed that she would never have killed Gil if she were a lion. I think that was the reason for the kill - she wanted something that would point back so obviously to her that she could then say she wouldn't have risked it.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Most people yesterDay thought Lommy was at least a little fishy, though (the notable exception being Encai, who had her solidly in the middle). The village was roughly divided down the middle between outright suspecting her and thinking she was 'kind of fishy' but not wanting to commit to full-out suspicion yet. She needed something to be able to point to as a solid reason why she isn't a lion, and I think we saw it when she claimed that she would never have killed Gil if she were a lion. I think that was the reason for the kill - she wanted something that would point back so obviously to her that she could then say she wouldn't have risked it.

Hmm. That's a pretty involved scenario, but a LommyLion is definitely capable of it.
It worries me somewhat that Eönwë, who at first seemed eager to lump me in with Mac, then broadened his suspects to include Nog and Lommy, has now voted for the latter.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

...Nog brought up the slip again (even though it had already been explained) in #364, Zil entertains it in #365, and Greenie chimes in at #370 Lommy practically mentions as fact in #377.

A succinct summary of yesterDay's shenanigans. Steve is my spirit animal.


Quick list then, while I'm rushing through my lunch.

Guilty:
Lommy
Boro

Leaning guilty:
Rikae

Not sure:
Greenie
Nog
Lottie
Encai
Wyth
Eomer

Probably innocent:
Dun (see my post yesterDay)
Steve

[Eönwë]

Ok, I need to go now, so

++Lommy