Sauron Wins...Then What?

[Tuor in Gondolin]

Originally posted by Kuruharan
I've had a notion knocking around in my head for the past two days that Tolkien in his letters addressed this somewhere, that if Sauron had triumphed at the end of the Third Age that he would not have been left alone to rule over Middle earth forever, that either the Valar or Eru himself would have intervened to topple him in one way or another.

Correct. It's Tolkien's way of allowing for both free will and Iluvatar not allowing a permanent triumphing of evil.

But the eventual defeat of Sauron is actually presaged in Eru's chding of Melkor in the Aunulindale when Melkor tried to take over and dominate the Music of the Ainur
:

Mighty are the Ainur, and mightiest among them is Melkor; but that he may know, and all the Ainur, that I am Iluvatar, those things that ye have sung, I will show them forth, that ye may see what ye have done. And thou, Melkor, shall see that no theme may be played that hath not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music to my despite. For he that attempteth this shall prove but my instrument in the devising of things more wonderful, which he himself hath not imagined.

[denethorthefirst]

Even if Sauron somehow conquered the northwest of middle earth he still wouldnt control the whole of Arda: he still has to invade the new continents that arose after the downfall of numenor (the Americas I presume), Afrika and the Far East. But even if he achieved total domination, I don't think the Valar would intervene. Somehow, somewhere (maybe after a little "divine Inspiration") there would be an uprising against his rule ...
But IF the Valar decided to attack him I don't think that war would be as catastrophic and world-changing as the earlier wars between the Valar and Melkor (the primeval conflicts, the battle of powers after the awakening of the elves and finally the war of wrath). These conflicts were so destructive because of the power involved and the power that was needed to dislodge Melkor. If the Valar invaded a Sauron-dominated Middle-earth the ensuing conflict would be far less supernatural and more like a conventional human war: an army of maybe 50 000 Vanyar and Noldor led by a dozen Maia officers would suffice and the ensuing destruction would be local (some destroyed towns and a burned forest or two).

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

Even if Sauron somehow conquered the northwest of middle earth he still wouldnt control the whole of Arda: he still has to invade the new continents that arose after the downfall of numenor (the Americas I presume), Afrika and the Far East.

Well he already controlled Harad and Rhûn which were more or less the Middle-earth equivalents of Africa and Asia. As for the "Americas" or New Lands, well if they have any relationship to the original Eastern Continent there may not have been any people there to rule at all at that point.
"In the East beyond the tumbled lands there is a silent beach and a dark and empty sea."
So Sauron may not have been too fussed about that I imagine.

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

But IF the Valar decided to attack him I don't think that war would be as catastrophic and world-changing as the earlier wars between the Valar and Melkor

The threat may have been Sauron's love of the "scorched earth policy" coupled with the descent into Morgothian nihilism which we are told had come to afflict him as time wore on - maybe he would have elected to destroy as much of his own lands and slaves as possible before defeat became unavoidable.
On the other hand, if the whole of Middle-earth was under his sway, it's possible that the kinds of armies he could have mustered would have been so vast and so deeply under the shadow that a host of the Valar would be forced to slay thousands upon thousands of them, and maybe it was that kind of near-genocide that the Valar would have needed to try to avoid.

It's an odd question though, isn't it? I mean, surely someone would have intervened? But that's why I think the events of The Lord of the Rings could almost be considered to be something like "damage control" on the part of the Wise.

A final point which comes to mind is the possibility that the nihilistic "lust for destruction" would have eventually torn Sauron's empire apart - people may have risen up against him or his servants may have turned on each other. At the end of the day, though, I suppose it all still hinges on the Ring being destroyed.

[denethorthefirst]

I think it's very likely that Sauron would try to apply some sort of "scorched earth" policy in the event of an invasion. But he is far, far less powerful than Morgoth. He can't change or damage the geography like his master, he simply is not powerful enough. All the damage that he could inflict would be localized, superficial and relatively temporary (polluted rivers, destroyed forests and the like, maybe attempted genocide). I also think it's very likely that the actual military engagements in the event of an invasion would be rather limited. I guess that the morale of his troops would not be very high (at least after the first crushing defeat): how would his human/orc armies react to the splendor and magnificence of an obviously technically superior highly motivated, experienced and trained high-elven army? His armies deserted him before (after ar-pharazon invaded his empire, although that may have been a ruse ...) and it may happen again. Think of it like the Middle-Earth version of the 2003 invasion of Iraq: his armies put up some incompetent token resistance at first and then either flee or mass surrender, Sauron panicks and decides to hide in the East in some cave but a Maiar task force finds him and drags him out by his beard like Saddam Hussein. The whole conflict may only last a few weeks at most.

[Belegorn]

I would not be too high on the Elves' abilities to deal with Sauron. Remember the 2nd Age. He seemed to basically dominate them. He actually almost overran them had not the Dúnedain saved the day in 1700 S.A. [see Tale of Years, and The History of Galadriel and Celeborn] The only people who were clearly superior to his forces were the Dúnedain. Not even the Nazgûl could stand against them. Even late in the 3rd Age the Witch-king was wary of some of the diminished Dúnedain such as the Steward Boromir, "Boromir was a great captain, and even the Witch-king feared him" [The Stewards]. Sauron himself new he could not hope to beat them with force so he supplicated before the last King of Númenor. I believe it's made clear that Sauron feared the Númenóreans and did not wish to engage them. When Ar-Pharazôn comes note the reaction of Sauron.

Originally Posted by Akallabêth

he perceived that the power and majesty of the Kings of the Sea surpassed all rumour of them, so that he could not trust even the greatest of his servants to withstand them; and he saw not his time yet to work his will with the Dúnedain. And he was crafty, well skilled to gain what he would by subtlety when force might not prevail... Sauron passed over the sea and looked upon the land of Númenor, and on the city of Armenelos in the days of its glory, and he was ASTOUNDED.

My point is that the Dúnedain, at least from my perspective, were a greater force and threat to Sauron than even the High-elves.

[denethorthefirst]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I would not be too high on the Elves' abilities to deal with Sauron. Remember the 2nd Age. He seemed to basically dominate them. He actually almost overran them had not the Dúnedain saved the day in 1700 S.A. [see Tale of Years, and The History of Galadriel and Celeborn] The only people who were clearly superior to his forces were the Dúnedain. ... My point is that the Dúnedain, at least from my perspective, were a greater force and threat to Sauron than even the High-elves.

But that weren't valinorean Elves! You could make the same Argument that a valinorean invasion against Morgoth must fail because he defeated the Noldor! The defeated Elves of the second Age were small populations of second and third generation exiled Noldor and Sindar. You can't compare the two, and I'm fairly certain that a valinorean high-elven army consisting of Noldor and Vanyar (a lot of them veterans from the war of wrath and other old elves that are almost as powerful as some maiar), equipped with high-quality armor and weapons that were manufactured by the Noldor in Valinor under Aules supervision, and who are led and supported by at least a dozen powerful Maia officers would smash anything that Sauron could muster, even if he had the Ring!

That leaves the moral question: the protectors of the children of iluvatar would have to kill a lot of the children of iluvatar in order to save the children of iluvatar ... messy, and quite the moral dilemma. However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender. That will leave only a small devoted core of a few thousand Uruks, Olog-hai and some fanatical black Numenoreans who will feel obligated to fight for religious reasons, but that will be it.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

That leaves the moral question: the protectors of the children of iluvatar would have to kill a lot of the children of iluvatar in order to save the children of iluvatar ... messy, and quite the moral dilemma. However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender. That will leave only a small devoted core of a few thousand Uruks, Olog-hai and some fanatical black Numenoreans who will feel obligated to fight for religious reasons, but that will be it.

Any compunction about killing Sauron's servants would not be present.
In the First Age War of Wrath, Orcs were nearly exterminated seemingly, and that is not shown in anything but a positive light.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender.

I still think if Sauron was wielding the One Ring he'd be able to keep his Orcs and Men in the fight. We know from Morgoth's Ring for instance regarding Sauron's Orcs that "the Orcs of his own trained armies were so completely under his will that they would sacrifice themselves without hesitation at his command." I think what this means is that they fought like this not out of loyalty or devotion but rather almost under mind-control, and I imagine the Ring would enable Sauron to extend such an effect even further among his servants. So I still think it's possible that an invasion from Aman could result in a forced massacre. This is all just speculation on my part though.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

In the First Age War of Wrath, Orcs were nearly exterminated seemingly, and that is not shown in anything but a positive light.

It's interesting that it's also stated in Morgoth's Ring that the law in the Elder Days at least was that Orcs were to be properly treated if they surrendered and sued for mercy, but that they never did (or at least "Few Orcs ever did so [...] and at no time would any Orc treat with any Elf").

It states: "though of necessity, being the fingers of the hand of Morgoth, they must be fought with the utmost severity, they must not be dealt with in their own terms of cruelty and treachery. Captives must not be tormented, not even to discover information for the defence of the homes of Elves and Men. If any Orc surrendered and asked for mercy, they must be granted it, even at cost."
Hmm.
Of course "in the horror of the War it was not always heeded."

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

But that weren't valinorean Elves!

Perhaps. Galadriel was the mightiest Elf after Fëanor and she was still there as were others who defected from the Undying Lands. I do not think the Elves of the 2nd Age were pushovers in the least bit. In a 2 on 1 duel between the 2 Kings of Elves and Men versus Sauron it ended in a draw, sort of since Sauron's Ring was not destroyed.

"In the beginning of this Age many of the High Elves still remained. Most of these dwelt in Lindon west of the Ered Luin; but before the building of the Barad-dûr many of the Sindar passed eastward, and some established realms in the forests far away, where their people were mostly Silvan Elves." [RotK, Appendix B]

Also the Elves in Middle-earth were skilled craftsmen. Celebrimbor was Fëanor's grandson and was a great craftsman. The Gwaith-i-Mírdain made the Rings of Power and the Three. They also had the instruction of Sauron who was a Maia of Aulë. In Of the Rings of Power it is said of these Noldor that only the workings of Fëanor surpassed their deeds.

"In Eregion the craftsmen of the Gwaith-i-Mírdain, the People of the Jewel-smiths, surpassed in cunning all that have ever wrought, save only Fëanor himself; and indeed greatest in skill among them was Celebrimbor, son of Curufin, who was estranged from his father and remained in Nargothrond"

It is said in Peoples of Middle-earth that he also came to Middle-earth from Aman. There are indeed Elves still in Middle-earth in the 2nd Age who were from Aman.

If you want to say Elves from Aman in league with Maiar could topple Sauron even if he wore the one I would not disagree. My point is that the Elves alone in the 2nd Age could not match him. I do not think they were lesser Elves than any that would come from Aman. Remember Galadriel was among them and she was not the lone surviving Elf from Aman still in M-E in the 2nd Age.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

He can't change or damage the geography like his master, he simply is not powerful enough. All the damage that he could inflict would be localized, superficial and relatively temporary (polluted rivers, destroyed forests and the like, maybe attempted genocide).

Well, Glorfindel did remark that "Sauron can torture and destroy the very hills," so he could probably damage Middle-earth to a reasonable degree, but I think the issue isn't the damage to the landscape but rather the large numbers of Men the Valar would risk having to slay were they to invade Middle-earth. They weren't willing to do it to the Númenóreans. It's true to say that Morgoth had a fair number of Men in his army during the War of Wrath but it seems to be that the population Sauron could draw upon (and indeed would have to given that he didn't have dragons and the like) would be enormous.

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

I guess that the morale of his troops would not be very high (at least after the first crushing defeat)

It probably depends whether Sauron had recovered the Ring or not. If he had he might have been able to drive his armies to the limit. It's worth noting that the "flight" of his armies at Umbar in the Second Age was deliberate: Sauron wanted to be captured. So presumably he could have made his armies fight the Númenóreans had he so desired (although they seemingly would have lost).