Middle-earth What-ifs

[Mithalwen]

As someone pointed out in an attempt to comfort me over poor Finrod getting killed for the sake of Beren, he was doomed anyway, the males of that kin tend to come to sticky or smoky ends. AmazingGilgalad lasted an whole age and no surprise he didn't have children. Argon would have been boiled, broiled, mashed in some other battle.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

Ar-Pharazôn had no child. He had married Míriel very much against her will, so this is not surprising. With the people in such a state, and no direct heir, the most likely scenario to me seems to be civil war: a war which may have had an outcome not unlike the Great Armament, with the power of Númenor being broken. In my opinion, this was the outcome Sauron desired in any event. See this thread: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=686492 for my arguments regarding the notion that Sauron wished to destroy the Númenoreans (because they were dangerous, because he could never truly be their King or God, and because he hated them) rather than rule or even wield them, or at least more than the small remnant of them which served him in the Third Age.

So, first, you're absolutely right that the loveless marriage of Ar-Pharazon and Tar-Miriel resulted in no children; in fact, I do believe that Tar-Palantir made a prophecy that when the Tree of Numenor died, so too would the line of kings. The point is, when Ar-Pharazon is killed, Tar-Miriel retains the Sceptre, as it was originally hers in her own right. That's Sauron's first obstacle.

One fairly easily conquered, in my opinion. Sauron was, if you remember, called a god himself by some of the Numenoreans, and he had turned many of them to his will, regardless of whether they worshiped him alongside Melkor or not. I have no doubt that he could have convinced the Council of the Sceptre that Miriel had gone mad, and that she required a regency or a steward to exercise power on her behalf. Sauron as Steward is not entirely out of the question, in my opinion, with the Council advising, but another royal being declared regent to rule in Miriel's place until she dies and then taking the throne himself is also not out of the question. Of course, said Prince Regent would want the advice of the person closest to the late king, for a smooth transition.

I, personally, believe that Sauron would have been content with the corruption of and subjugation of Numenor to his will, he simply chose another path. He did not anticipate the absolute annihilation of the island and all its people as occurred in the original timeline, but rather the crippling of its military and ruling class. He very well might have rebuilt it under his banner, had Eru not intervened. The professor suggested something similar.

But though Sauron's whole true motive was the destruction of the Numenoreans, this was a particular matter of revenge upon Ar-Pharazon, for humiliation. Sauron (unlike Morgoth) would have been content for the Numenoreans to exist, as his own subjects, and indeed he used a great many of them that he corrupted to his allegiance. (Morgoth's Ring: Myths Transformed)

This course of events accomplishes Sauron's objective, revenge upon the king who humiliated him and foiled his plans in Middle-earth, as well as corrupting his legacy and taking the very military machine that defeated him as his own. Does it require a modification of Sauron's personality and goals, slightly? Yes, but that's what this thread is all about: not what did happen, but what might have happened had things been different?

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

As someone pointed out in an attempt to comfort me over poor Finrod getting killed for the sake of Beren, he was doomed anyway, the males of that kin tend to come to sticky or smoky ends. AmazingGilgalad lasted an wholecage and no surprise he didn't have children. Argon would have been boiled, broiled, mashed in some other battle.

Very likely. I just wonder if he would have survived long enough to have a tenure as High-King of the Noldor in Exile. King Argon might have survived long enough to see the Second Age, with Gil-galad as a possible heir, or he might not. The problem is, such an early POD has so many butterflies that anything could have followed. We know so little about Argon that it's impossible to predict how his presence would have effected subsequent battles and events, for better or worse.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

I, personally, believe that Sauron would have been content with the corruption of and subjugation of Numenor to his will, he simply chose another path. He did not anticipate the absolute annihilation of the island and all its people as occurred in the original timeline, but rather the crippling of its military and ruling class. He very well might have rebuilt it under his banner, had Eru not intervened. The professor suggested something similar.

The quote from Morgoth's Ring is one I have neglected, but I believe the point you have made about "the crippling of its military and ruling class" is a cogent one. Sauron evidently expected them at least to be destroyed by the Valar. A civil war after the death of Pharazôn would, I believe, have achieved similar goals, with such dissent in the land, and perhaps enabled Sauron to replace the phantom of Melkor as their god as well as openly becoming their ruler. Nonetheless I see the "military and ruling class" still probably being mostly or largely destroyed, with the possible creation of dangerous enclaves in Harad or elsewhere who owed loyalty to no one besides themselves, including Sauron. In any event I believe Sauron's main priority was the destruction of the Elves, and Gil-galad in particular, and he would have taken whatever action necessary to achieve that goal, including becoming master of a Númenórean remnant which might be brought back to Middle-earth. How useful that remnant would be I can't say.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Zigûr

The quote from Morgoth's Ring is one I have neglected, but I believe the point you have made about "the crippling of its military and ruling class" is a cogent one. Sauron evidently expected them at least to be destroyed by the Valar. A civil war after the death of Pharazôn would, I believe, have achieved similar goals, with such dissent in the land, and perhaps enabled Sauron to replace the phantom of Melkor as their god as well as openly becoming their ruler.

I don't know if I see him being able to declare himself ruler in the open yet. If the Numenoreans have a single most dominating flaw, at this point in their history, it is pride. Even after Numenor fell, the Exiles still searched for it and longed for the days of yore, to some extent. Elendil himself used the Palantir of Elostirion to try and find the island, or some remnant of it, that they might return. The Black Numenoreans of Umbar, and even the Gondorians, during the times they ruled Umbar, never tore down the monument built to commemorate the humbling of Sauron by Ar-Pharazon; Sauron had the people of Umbar do it after he dominated them. So... while the ruling class of Numenor, after Ar-Pharazon's assassination, might find themselves under Sauron's sway to such a point that he is the de facto ruler, I still don't think they're willing to set him up as king, or any other de jure head of state; even Steward might be a stretch. I think he'll still have to remain the power behind the power.

Originally Posted by Zigûr

Nonetheless I see the "military and ruling class" still probably being mostly or largely destroyed, with the possible creation of dangerous enclaves in Harad or elsewhere who owed loyalty to no one besides themselves, including Sauron. In any event I believe Sauron's main priority was the destruction of the Elves, and Gil-galad in particular, and he would have taken whatever action necessary to achieve that goal, including becoming master of a Númenórean remnant which might be brought back to Middle-earth. How useful that remnant would be I can't say.

If Sauron prevents an all-out civil war, and kills Ar-Pharazon before the Great Armament sets sail, then he has the most powerful military weapon ever assembled by the Children of Iluvatar to make use of. He could blame the assassination on the Faithful, even on the line of Andunie specifically, saying that the leaders of the Elf-friends had colluded with Gil-galad to assassinate the king to put Tar-Miriel, who was known to have Faithful sympathies, back in control of the country. Such an accusation would be eagerly accepted by the ruling class, and Sauron could turn the Great Armament against Lindon and perhaps even the Faithful Colonies in what would have later become Gondor, the most significant of which being what would later be Dol Amroth and Pelargir.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

Very likely. I just wonder if he would have survived long enough to have a tenure as High-King of the Noldor in Exile. King Argon might have survived long enough to see the Second Age, with Gil-galad as a possible heir, or he might not. The problem is, such an early POD has so many butterflies that anything could have followed. We know so little about Argon that it's impossible to predict how his presence would have effected subsequent battles and events, for better or worse.

Well his name meant High Commander so he was unlikely to have taken after his namesake noble gas and been very inert. Turgon only survived so long because he sequestered himself, Gil-galad because of his youth

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well his name meant High Commander so he was unlikely to have taken after his namesake noble gas and been very inert. Turgon only survived so long because he sequestered himself, Gil-galad because of his youth

IIRC, he died because he charged into a bunch of Orks and slew several, including the commander, but then was surrounded and killed himself. Impetuous and daring, and a brilliant fighter, it seems, but either willing to sacrifice himself or lacking some foresight. He very well could have died later in the wars, and I would not be surprised. He might have predeceased his older brothers, as he did in the Original Timeline, but then again, he might not have.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

IIRC, he died because he charged into a bunch of Orks and slew several, including the commander, but then was surrounded and killed himself. Impetuous and daring, and a brilliant fighter, it seems, but either willing to sacrifice himself or lacking some foresight. He very well could have died later in the wars, and I would not be surprised. He might have predeceased his older brothers, as he did in the Original Timeline, but then again, he might not have.

If he stuck around long enough he no doubt would have been a candidate to be Gil-galad's dad.. I suppose since 2 of Feanor's sons survived to the end of the Age, that Argon might have survived. Maybe he might have be around to alter history at Nargothrond or Sirion