Middle-earth What-ifs

[William Cloud Hicklin]

However, I've still always been a bit puzzled why Aranarth didn't go south and claim the Crown; he was the only living descendant of Ondoher, and his father was of unimpeachable Numenorean lineage. Arvedui's claim to Anarion's inheritance was shaky, but not his son's.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

However, I've still always been a bit puzzled why Aranarth didn't go south and claim the Crown; he was the only living descendant of Ondoher, and his father was of unimpeachable Numenorean lineage. Arvedui's claim to Anarion's inheritance was shaky, but not his son's.

From my point of view, Aranarth didn't even try to claim the Kingship of Arnor, thus he didn't feel able to claim the Kingship of Gondor. His father had been rejected based on the various claims, and I don't think Gondor reckons inheritance of royal status through matrilineal descent. The Line of Isildur had essentially been permanently rejected, and they had rejected claim of descent from Anárion by disallowing inheritance through mothers. Notice that in the entire history of Gondor, no sister-son of a king ever inherited the crown. It was always solely through male descent. Furthermore, Fíriel's own claim was rejected by proxy, when Arvedui used it to bolster his own claim, and the withheld the crown. In a way, one could argue that once a claim on the throne is rejected, a descendant further down the line can't resurrect it via the same justification. He'd have to find a new way to justify his claim on the crown of Gondor.

That being said, there are counter-arguments to this. 1. After the death of Ëarnur, there was no one with sufficiently royal heritage to claim the crown, and thus with all other possible candidates exhausted, withholding the crown from Aranarth (had he pressed a claim) would have been impossible, despite earlier rejections. 2. Aranarth could have done as both Arvedui and, later, Aragorn did, and use their status as the Heir of Elendil to surpass all other claims. Note that when Arvedui mentioned this, the Council of Gondor did not respond: they didn't write back, telling him that his claim didn't matter or was insufficient, as they did when they felt they had grounds for legal refusal, they simply ignored it and went on to crown Ëarnil II. This, to me, was a tacit acknowledgment that he had a valid point, but that it should be clear they weren't going to give him the crown. Once a king had been crowned, it would have taken a war to dethrone him, which Arvedui had neither the strength, nor likely the desire, to do. Aranarth, however, could have made his case before the Council after the death of Ëarnur, and though the council might have hemmed and hawed about it, claiming that Ëarnur's fate was technically unknown, they eventually (in my opinion) would have had to crown Aranarth. Unless they could find some legal means of withholding the crown from him, I don't think they would have been willing to become what amounted to usurpers.

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

However, I've still always been a bit puzzled why Aranarth didn't go south and claim the Crown; he was the only living descendant of Ondoher, and his father was of unimpeachable Numenorean lineage. Arvedui's claim to Anarion's inheritance was shaky, but not his son's.

I don't know if being "of impeccable Númenórean lineage" would be the distinguishing factor in an argument since this standard is applicable to many other Dúnedain in the North or South. The reason his son would probably be rejected too even though there was no legit heir in the South was because of their standards; a descendant of Anárion through the male line which they pointed out was practiced in Arnor too. Aranarth's mom was the daughter of Ondoher, not his son. Therefore he does not meet the standard of "this heritage is reckoned through the sons only". I do wonder why Arvedui would claim the crown of Gondor and then bring up how there was a standard that the eldest child whether man or woman could claim it. If he was using his wife to claim the crown he'd be shooting himself in the foot with this one since she would be the one who'd have the claim and not him.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I don't know if being "of impeccable Númenórean lineage" would be the distinguishing factor in an argument since this standard is applicable to many other Dúnedain in the North or South. The reason his son would probably be rejected too even though there was no legit heir in the South was because of their standards; a descendant of Anárion through the male line which they pointed out was practiced in Arnor too. Aranarth's mom was the daughter of Ondoher, not his son. Therefore he does not meet the standard of "this heritage is reckoned through the sons only". I do wonder why Arvedui would claim the crown of Gondor and then bring up how there was a standard that the eldest child whether man or woman could claim it. If he was using his wife to claim the crown he'd be shooting himself in the foot with this one since she would be the one who'd have the claim and not him.

I'm firmly of the opinion that this would have been a far more effective way to get Arvedui into Gondor. If Fíriel had come herself, acting of her own volition and for her own claim, citing the precedent of Númenorean law and basically daring them to deny her her birthright, I don't know that they could have done it. The Council probably would have realized that Arvedui would have some sway over the rule of Gondor, but there was the example of Herucalmo of Númenor, who was Consort to Tar-Vanimeldë, but functioned as the de facto ruler of Númenor while his wife still lived and then withheld the Sceptre from his son, calling himself Tar-Anducal until his death. The Council might have put a proviso that Arvedui was to remain a Prince of Arnor, and serving as the Prince/King-Consort of Gondor gave him no authority to rule.

But that's all conjecture. Yes, you're right. Fíriel had a better claim to the throne than did Arvedui, and using her claim to bolster his actually weakened her claim, in my opinion. I think if he had gone this route, he might have been able to unite the realms under his son.

[Belegorn]

Yea I think in the end his best route would have been to unite the realms through his son since he'd be the son of the queen of Gondor and the king of Arnor. Still Arnor was in dire straits at this time and Eärnil ll was actually cool with the rulers in the North but he didn't have any manpower to send since he had his own problems. I suppose there might have been a way to prevent it, but it might have been too late since it appears like the time to actually do it was with Arvedui via prophecy.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

Yea I think in the end his best route would have been to unite the realms through his son since he'd be the son of the queen of Gondor and the king of Arnor. Still Arnor was in dire straits at this time and Eärnil ll was actually cool with the rulers in the North but he didn't have any manpower to send since he had his own problems. I suppose there might have been a way to prevent it, but it might have been too late since it appears like the time to actually do it was with Arvedui via prophecy.

I had an extensive discussion on another forum concerning how Arvedui might have become King of Gondor; I'll quote myself from that website...

Originally Posted by Corsair_Caruso

I know this thread is pretty dead and I might get in trouble for Necromancy, but I feel I have something substantive to contribute. I believe that in such cases necromancy is permissible. If not, I apologize.

I think much of the analysis above is pretty spot on, especially the identification of Pelendur as the main obstacle to Arvedui's and Firiel's ascent as monarchs of Gondor. I think, however, one might also be concerned about Arvedui's lifespan. He made his claim on the crown in 1944, at the age of 80. In the years of his prime for a man of his line, certainly. However, let's examine a few facts...

Arvegil (1553 - 1743, died aged 190)

Arveleg II: (1633 - 1813, lived 180 years)

Araval: (1711 - 1891, lived 180 years)

Araphant: (1789 - 1964, lived 175 years)

Arvedui: (1864 - 1975, lived 111 years, but died of unnatural causes OTL)

The lifespans of even the Northern Kings had been decreasing ever since the time of Arvegil, and in the OTL, no King or Chieftain of the Dunedain reached the Age of 200 from Arveleg until Aragorn...

So, taking into account our POD, which I'm assuming is the decision to stay with the Lossoth until the spring rather than take the ship that subsequently sank, Arvedui lives on as King of Arthedain...

Now, Earnil II reigned until 2043, in which Arvedui, had he lived, would have been 179, and Earnur took the Sceptre. Earnur died only 7 years later, 2050, in which Arvedui would have been 186.

I bring this up because it seems that while this would not be out of the question for a man of Arvedui's lineage, it is longer than the previous three generations before him lived, with a generally decreasing lifespan both before and after.

I bring these points up because I believe them to be relevant. However, I am of the opinion that Malbeth's prophecy indicates that, had he decided not to take the ship that later sank and ended his life prematurely, Arvedui would have outlived the Kings Earnil II and Earnur.

Now, one additional problem with the survival of Arvedui is a possible butterflying away of Earnur's death. However, I don't think a man of Earnur's character could be persuaded to ignore the Witch-King's challenges by Arvedui, nor do I believe he'd even try to consult the Northern King. If the Steward Mardil couldn't convince him not to go, then I don't think Arvedui could or would have. In any case, I believe the prophecy would have necessitated the ending of the Line of Anarion (in the south) while Arvedui still lived, making an early end to Earnur's reign inevitable/necessary.

IOTL, Mardil Voronwe took up the rule of Gondor because there were no men of the line of Anarion left with an acceptable claim of descent. The Kingdom of Arthedain was gone, and Aranarth never pressed a claim on the Kingship of Gondor. However, had Arvedui survived, as King of Arthedain, married to a Princess of Gondor with a valid claim to rule as Queen in her own right, with no remaining claimants for the Stewards to put in their place, the Council of Gondor would have had no reasonable answer to a second claim on the Kingship (especially without the stubborn and haughty Pelendur still fighting the ascendancy of the Heirs of Isildur), thus, uniting the northern and southern Kingdoms of the Dunedain under one Crown, and fulfilling the prophecy that Arvedui would become the King of a great realm. His reign would likely have been short, and he would have probably been quickly succeeded by Aranarth, but the prophecy would have been fulfilled.

As for his new name, as prophecized by Malbeth, I imagine it would have been in a similar fashion to that of Aragorn II, when he took the name Elessar Telcontar as his regnal name. We would have seen some kind of entirely new name and possibly even a new house, to reflect the new dynasty, and the union of the lines of Isildur and Anarion into one crown, ruling all the Dunedain and their former territories.

Gondor and Arthedain's military forces would have easily effected military control over the former territory of Arnor, though with the depleted populations and collapsed governments of Rhudaur and Cardolan, I don't know that any coordinated action would be necessary.

If I remember correctly, the first ten ruling stewards presided over the Watchful Peace, with decreases activity from the enemies of the Dunedain and the Free Peoples in general.

This might also butterfly out of existence the Kingdom of Rohan, but who knows, that is approximately 500 years later. Butterflies would abound and who knows what kind of turns history would have taken?

[Belegorn]

One thing I will point out. This decrease in lifespan effected all the Dúnedain, even those in the South although at one point it seemed the South had the edge in longevity.

Tarondor b. 1577 lived for 221 years.
Telumehtur b. 1632 lived for 218 years
Narmacil ll b. 1684 lived for 172 years, died in battle against the Wainriders beyond Anduin.
Calimehtar b. 1736 lived for 200 years
Ondoher b. 1787 lived for 157 years, died in battle with both his sons against the Wainrider in a rout.
Eärnil ll b. 1883 lived for 160 years
Eärnur b. 1928 lived for 122 years, left the kingdom in the hands of the Stewards after taking up the Witch-king's challenge.

I agree with no legit heir in the South Arvedui could possibly have won over the Dúnedain in the South although they seemed to be slightly prejudiced against the Dúnedain in the North because of the events that had occured there. Eärnil ll did not hold the same view as the others.

"Eärnil was a wise man, and not arrogant, even if, as to most men in Gondor, the realm in Arthedain seemed a small thing, for all the lineage of its lords." [Appendix A: Gondor and the Heirs of Anárion]

What is somewhat confounding is that even 200 years later there were still Dúnedain living to 150 years of age who were not even of the royal line. So I wonder why the last 2 kings, well Eärnil to be exact, only lived to be 160. Three hundred fifty-two years later Hador dies at the age of 150.

If Arvedui had succeeded, however, perhaps Eärnur lives or not. I do not think Arvedui would allow him to accept the challenge of the Witch-king anyways. I think Arvedui had a better shot to take the crown when there were no heirs of Anárion left to take that crown than when there were still claimants around to take up the mantle. If this was successful the North would have already been lost and there are a great many who look down on the North because of their weakness already. The Stewards it seems had hardened their hearts against their kin in the North, but at the same time it is said of the Dúnedain in the South, "many in Gondor still believed that a king would indeed return in some time to come; and some remembered the ancient line of the North, which it was rumoured still lived on in the shadows." [Appendix A: The Stewards] Arvedui would not have ful-filled the prophecy if this were the case since the North was already sacked. Perhaps they could rebuild but Sauron and his minions were still around.

[denethorthefirst]

The relatively long lifespan of the Steward Hador stands out and i have often wondered about that. My view is that it may be an abberation and not indicative of the general life span of the numenorean nobility of that time. The stewards during the watchful Peace have, in general, a lifespan between circa 107 (Dior) to 130 years (Belegorn). Hadors son Barahir follows this trend with a lifespan of 122 years. After the end of the watchful Peace the lifespan begins to further decrease, Denethor I lives for only 102 years (a new low, maybe the shock of Saurons return and the sudden invasion of Ithilien shortened his life?). Without going into a lot of statistics that would only bore everyone: interestingly the kings of Gondor have, at least for the first 1800 years or so of the third Age, a remarkably longer lifespan than the Kings of Arnor and later Arthedain, only the later King Earnil has a comparable relatively short lifespan of "only" 160 years ... very strange. What could be the reasons for this difference? Its not a fluke, its consistent: all the kings of Gondor (except for the last two and those slain in battle) live for circa 20-40 years longer than their northern counterparts.

[Corsair_Caruso]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

One thing I will point out. This decrease in lifespan effected all the Dúnedain, even those in the South although at one point it seemed the South had the edge in longevity.

Tarondor b. 1577 lived for 221 years.
Telumehtur b. 1632 lived for 218 years
Narmacil ll b. 1684 lived for 172 years, died in battle against the Wainriders beyond Anduin.
Calimehtar b. 1736 lived for 200 years
Ondoher b. 1787 lived for 157 years, died in battle with both his sons against the Wainrider in a rout.
Eärnil ll b. 1883 lived for 160 years
Eärnur b. 1928 lived for 122 years, left the kingdom in the hands of the Stewards after taking up the Witch-king's challenge.

I agree with no legit heir in the South Arvedui could possibly have won over the Dúnedain in the South although they seemed to be slightly prejudiced against the Dúnedain in the North because of the events that had occured there. Eärnil ll did not hold the same view as the others.

"Eärnil was a wise man, and not arrogant, even if, as to most men in Gondor, the realm in Arthedain seemed a small thing, for all the lineage of its lords." [Appendix A: Gondor and the Heirs of Anárion]

What is somewhat confounding is that even 200 years later there were still Dúnedain living to 150 years of age who were not even of the royal line. So I wonder why the last 2 kings, well Eärnil to be exact, only lived to be 160. Three hundred fifty-two years later Hador dies at the age of 150.

That certainly is an interesting point you bring up, and counter to my preconceptions about the two royal lines, though I had never actually taken the time to compare them in this way.

Originally Posted by Belegorn

If Arvedui had succeeded, however, perhaps Eärnur lives or not. I do not think Arvedui would allow him to accept the challenge of the Witch-king anyways.

Well, in the above quote I was really referring to Arvedui being refused the first time, as per OTL, then surviving his time in the Forodwaith by not taking the ship of Círdan, which subsequently sank, which I believe may have been part of the "less hopeful choice" that he had to make. Only then would he have stuck around as King of Arthedain/Arnor long enough to outlive Ëarnil and Ëarnur.

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I think Arvedui had a better shot to take the crown when there were no heirs of Anárion left to take that crown than when there were still claimants around to take up the mantle. If this was successful the North would have already been lost and there are a great many who look down on the North because of their weakness already. The Stewards it seems had hardened their hearts against their kin in the North, but at the same time it is said of the Dúnedain in the South, "many in Gondor still believed that a king would indeed return in some time to come; and some remembered the ancient line of the North, which it was rumoured still lived on in the shadows." [Appendix A: The Stewards] Arvedui would not have ful-filled the prophecy if this were the case since the North was already sacked. Perhaps they could rebuild but Sauron and his minions were still around.

Hmmm... I hadn't thought of it that way, but I don't think him becoming King after the fall of Arthedain precludes his fulfillment of the prophecy, which reads thus.

"Arvedui you shall call him, for he will be the last in Arthedain. Though a choice will come to the Dúnedain, and if they take the one that seems less hopeful, then your son will change his name and become king of a great realm. If not, then much sorrow and many lives of men shall pass, until the Dúnedain arise and are united again."
― Appendix A

So, here, he remains the last King in Arthedain. I admit, it does seem that the less hopeful choice does, in fact, seem to come to the Dunedain as a whole (indicating the Council of Gondor representing the Dunedain of the south) and not to Arvedui specifically, so that might be a hole in my theory, but then, it isn't conclusive, and Arvedui wasn't the only Dunadan in the Forodwaith that escaped Arthedain's destruction. Arthedain falls, but then if Aragorn fulfilled the last part of the prophecy by uniting the Dúnedain thousands of years after Arthedain and Arnor had fallen, I don't see why Arvedui couldnt have fulfilled the prophecy by uniting the Dúnedain (whether or not the kingdom survived, a number of its people did) a few decades later. As King of Gondor, Arvedui (or whatever his new name would have been after he was named King of Gondor after the death of Ëarnur) could have repopulated Arnor with colonists from the south, to augment the remaining northern population. Sure, there was some prejudice against the north, but I'm sure if he looked through the kingdom he could have found a decently sized group to act as a core population, and would send forth the necessary armies to protect them as well.

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

The relatively long lifespan of the Steward Hador stands out and i have often wondered about that. My view is that it may be an abberation and not indicative of the general life span of the numenorean nobility of that time. The stewards during the watchful Peace have, in general, a lifespan between circa 107 (Dior) to 130 years (Belegorn). Hadors son Barahir follows this trend with a lifespan of 122 years. After the end of the watchful Peace the lifespan begins to further decrease, Denethor I lives for only 102 years (a new low, maybe the shock of Saurons return and the sudden invasion of Ithilien shortened his life?). Without going into a lot of statistics that would only bore everyone: interestingly the kings of Gondor have, at least for the first 1800 years or so of the third Age, a remarkably longer lifespan than the Kings of Arnor and later Arthedain, only the later King Earnil has a comparable relatively short lifespan of "only" 160 years ... very strange. What could be the reasons for this difference? Its not a fluke, its consistent: all the kings of Gondor (except for the last two and those slain in battle) live for circa 20-40 years longer than their northern counterparts.

The only thing I can think of is that whatever grace the Valar bestowed upon the House of Elendil seems to have dwindled more quickly in the north, evidenced not only by shorter lifespans, but also their more ruinous infighting, etc... than in the south. It's not really an answer, and even I don't know if I buy it, but it's all that I can think of at the moment. I'm going to spend some time with the lists of Kings and come back with a more thought out response.