Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Form, do you suggest we'd let the baddies kill each other first and not try lynching any of them? Just sit back as sacrificial lambs and wait whether they kill us all or whether they happen to kill each other first, or whether our gifteds save the day or tell us what to do?

Playing this game kind of means we villagers play it as well - and not only those who have roles will play it.

I suppose I can't expect anyone but myself to remember it, but I have a long-standing dislike against Days 1, and the main reason for that boils down to this very sort of situation. I'm not saying--well, I not trying to say--that we should be docile and let either wolves OR gifteds boss everyone else around and determine the course of the game.

What I'm trying to say is that, unlike the villagers, the wolves HAVE to kill someone toNight. In the normal course of events, where the village lynches someone on Day 1, you could say that the village makes the first move (and 71% of the time, or thereabouts, we get it wrong). By causing Day 1 to be a no-lynch day, we force the wolves to make the first move.

And, in a way, this is the way the game SHOULD be played: the narrative of each game uses the Moderator as a first victim of the wolves, to whose death the village reacts by trying to lynch the werewolves. In PRACTICE, however, the actual participation of the players starts with Day 1--in a real world, if werewolves started killing people in a closed community, we'd have a history of interaction with our neighbours on which to base our lynchings; in the game world, we have nothing but a Day 1 that precedes any actual choices made by the Wolves. The death of the moderator is presented as a fait accompli and we have to try and analyze the actions of people who never actually made any decision to kill that person.

I suppose this is sounding more like a defence for my dislike of Days 1 than anything else, but I think there's a nugget of truth here. The record bears out that Day 1 lynchings get it wrong significantly more than they get it right (better than 2 innocent deaths on Day 1 for every successful wolf-kill). Restoring the natural order of things, where the wolves HAVE to act first means that tomorrow, in what would then be a REAL Day 1-after-wolf-killings, would remove the red herrings of trying to ferret out whose was an ordo, who was a gifted, and who was a wolf in the original lynching.

After all, on Day 1 it could be entirely a list of ordos who lynches an ordo. Or it could be the Seer, Ranger, Hunter, and Loves who cast those votes. My point is that we don't KNOW who will have anyone killed today, but we absolutely will know that the wolves kill whoever is killed at night toNight.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

For another, although 1-in-4 is a reasonably good chance of hitting on a wolf, it's still not as good as the 3-in-4 chance of missing one altogether.

You know, the only time we have a higher random chance to lynch a wolf than to lynch an innocent is when the wolves win.

Originally Posted by Form

Even so, we can't calculate OUR odds of lynching a wolf off what has actually happened in the past, any more than you can say the odds of flipping a coin Heads or Tails on a given toss is anything other than 50/50--even if the ACTUAL flipping has come up 52/48 in favour of Heads. Although the Day 1 lynch rate for wolves has certainly been historically better than utter chance would predict, it is nonetheless close to what chance predicts.

You're not leaving me a choice, so here we go. According to math, the interval from 14% to 44% has a 95% chance to contain the population probability for the success of Day 1 lynches.
Yeeah, I expected the interval to be terrible, but not this terrible. Form has a point.

Regardless. The day is a time for lynching, void of scruple or remorse. I will not abstain.

Since Immanuel Kant? ...ahem.

Kant is annoying, don't ever mention him again.

Immanuel Kant was a real ****ant, who was very rarely stable...

Sorry, had to.


Ok, enough of this. The next time I post I will actually put down something substantial. Or at least I'll try.


edit: shaking my head at the forum's auto-censoring

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Regardless. The day is a time for lynching, void of scruple or remorse. I will not abstain.

Hear, hear! Even if no-one is looking particularly wolvish at the moment, this is the first day of werewolf for AGES, and by gum we oughtta string someone up to satiate our long-frustrated hunger.

So enough with all this numerical babbling for a moment - who do we like the look of?

Personally, I'm always inclined to vote for very many of you, just because - certainly Lommy, Shasta, Nilp and Boro are never wasted lynches, if you ask me.

[Lalaith]

Dear me, if this is when I show up most days, I shall be avalanched trying to keep up with things... whatever possessed me to think I had the analytical stamina to get back into this horrid sport?

Just what I thought when I saw three pages....not that it's not good to be back, guys and gals, but oh, my brain hurts....anyway, what I always say is when in doubt, re-read... back soonish....

[the phantom]

Tentative list thus far...

Obviously innocent and awesome.
the phantom

Probably innocent and rather cool.
Aganzir
Boro
Sally
Nilp

Hmmm... Innocent?
Rune
Nerwen
Morm
Form
Eomer

Not today. Maybe later.
Green
Rikae
Mith
McCaber
Legate
Shasta
Lommy
Kath
Gwath
Lalaith

Up for lynching consideration.
Nogrod
Loslote
Mac
Firefoot

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I wish to cast the first stone (not that it would matter, since I've already voted for myself).

I am suspicious of Mac's pooh-poohing (is that a word? It is now!) phantom's plan of transferring information from the Dead to the Living without suggesting an alternative or even a modification to the original. While I've repeatedly stated that our two Wolf Packs would like to gain the same information as we have, in the end, the information matters far less to them than they do to us. In the absence of anything concrete, they'd just proceed with the business of killing everyone who isn't part of their Pack, which is a simpler plan than anything we as a village have right now.

Also, I was mildly suspicious of someone as well (thought it was Firefoot (Hi! ) but turns out not) who, admittedly, just didn't have as firm a grasp of the rules and may have suggested something perilous. I'll read again after doing my morning stuff to see who it was.

Also also, re Rune's 'plan' of 'lynching' Sepp Blatter, Nog's suggestion of lynching phantom would be the next best thing. (Not that I'm comparing the two in anyway whatsoever, but he's also a president/commissioner/insert-title-here of his own football federation.)

[Aganzir]

Well I'm home and I just want to go to sleep.

As of now, I have no idea who I should vote, and I'd actually still like a tie->no lynch today (only today, not every day, I don't even know who first twisted it that way). Let me explain once again why.

• Whether we lynch somebody on DAY 1 or not, the Dead can only start voting for role reveals on NIGHT 3. If we lynch now, they'll have to choose between 4 people. If we don't, there will only be 3. I see that we'd benefit from narrowing down the options. Especially as the role vote is the only way to find out dead people's alignment until the seer dies.
• To people who say voting and lynching is the "way this game is played" and the village's best option: under ordinary circumstances, yes. But in this game it means next to nothing. For the first, we just won't know if a lynch was successful or not. For the second, there are two wolf packs so no matter how essential a part you play in lynching a wolf, you may still be one yourself.
• Let's face it, the lynches are far from being our primary way of getting information in this game. The wolf kills are, and the Dead Thread and what happens in there (whether we find a way for the two threads to communicate or not, we will still learn something from who the Dead choose), and eventually hopefully the seer. I think it's more important to keep the Dead Thread under control as best we can and make it as difficult as possible for the wolves to mess it up than it is to lynch a poor random person on DAY 1 just to make a point.

If somebody would like to explain the actual benefits of lynching somebody today, I'm more than willing to reconsider, but as I see it, we're trying to apply old rules to a new concept.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

(only today, not every day, I don't even know who first twisted it that way).

Wait... there are people taking it that way? Apparently, I missed that.

Just so we're clear, I was only in favour of no lynch today--even with the odds of a successful lynch being no better on subsequent days, I see those as a different situation entirely, since we have different evidence (that is, we HAVE evidence worth mentioning).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

I did this specifically because I knew certain folks would complain if they were asked to participate in anything resembling a plan.

I'm sure I don't have any idea what you're talking about.

In other news, there's an idea running that we shouldn't lynch today? I disagree. Our ability to remove wolves from the game is finite, and I don't think we ought to skip even one of our limited shots.

Now to type up a more substantial post, now that I'm back at the computer.

[Nogrod]

Form – if you wait for chances to get over 50-50 with lynching you’d need to give up lynching altogether: unless a seer reveals with some solid background knowledge on her/his status, every lynch is less than that.

I think I can see where you come from though (D1 chances are lowish), but trying to lynch people gives one the data one needs to make any inferences. So even if the chances aren’t near 50-50 (rather like 1/3 to 1/4 in practise) on Day1, just saying "let’s skip this Day" will give the wolves a free ride to do their mayhem and us others more or less clueless.

Many Day1 lynches have been unfortunate for the villagers, but more often than not very useful when backtracking on who voted who and why - and even if we can't enjoy the results of those ponderings here in the Living Thread immediately or as such to begin with, the Dead can use them. Let's not focus solely on us living on this Day1 but also in the wider scale - the Dead can use a lot of info if we give it to them. If we do not vote or make excuses to make ties there is little to tell in comparison with a situation where someone is actually facing leaving this thread - a chance nastier for the wolves than for the ordos.

Yes this game is a different beast as Agan reminded, but it is a different one also because the lynched and other dead will keep on playing - and in the end the game will be more or less decided - and is more interesting to play - in the Dead Thread (if it goes far enough). So I might just wish to stick into some gaming principles: do what you can to win and encourage others to play - that's the only way peolpe leave marks to be analysed - for the living or for the dead.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

• Whether we lynch somebody on DAY 1 or not, the Dead can only start voting for role reveals on NIGHT 3. If we lynch now, they'll have to choose between 4 people. If we don't, there will only be 3. I see that we'd benefit from narrowing down the options. Especially as the role vote is the only way to find out dead people's alignment until the seer dies.
• To people who say voting and lynching is the "way this game is played" and the village's best option: under ordinary circumstances, yes. But in this game it means next to nothing. For the first, we just won't know if a lynch was successful or not. For the second, there are two wolf packs so no matter how essential a part you play in lynching a wolf, you may still be one yourself.
• Let's face it, the lynches are far from being our primary way of getting information in this game. The wolf kills are, and the Dead Thread and what happens in there (whether we find a way for the two threads to communicate or not, we will still learn something from who the Dead choose), and eventually hopefully the seer. I think it's more important to keep the Dead Thread under control as best we can and make it as difficult as possible for the wolves to mess it up than it is to lynch a poor random person on DAY 1 just to make a point.

One additional point:

• We're not the only people trying to take out wolves. Other wolves will do it too, purposefully or by accident, by night kills.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

xed with Agan - ...WHAT???? I smell Freud... but whatever I'll look at it when I'm back

What, did I say something oedipal?

I like Rikae and phantom and won't be voting for either today. Greenie and Nog make sense but I'm slightly wary of them. Form makes me laugh. A little bit uneasy about Rune for no particular reason except I vaguely disagree with his stuff and am not impressed with calling Greenie annoying.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Like, I don't know why an innocent player would look at morm's comment from that angle

ThinLOLmien is back! So I'm, what, your second oldest friend and suddenly you don't understand why I'd look at something from the villain's point of view? I understood morm's meaning perfectly and chose to continue the joke as I did because it's fun and joking about being a wolf is the closest I can get to being one.

Seriously though, just what would a wolf gain from saying "Hello I'm a wolf" when it would lead the other pack straight to her door? I'd imagine in a game like this, they will go to lengths to look as ordinary as possible, and I just don't understand why you think I'd have reacted like that as a wolf. Granted I'm tired but your trigger-happy jump is so poorly reasoned it genuinely annoys me and gives you a free ride to the top of my suspect list.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Exactly. And the Dead might not wish to be controlled either - they probably even have a better idea about what is going on than people in the living thread and will see the follies we here, or some of us, might think as wisdom.

You're forgetting something. We are the Dead Thread. In a few days we will all be feasting in Valhalla (for we are shiny). We're not thinking of ruling a foreign entity, we're thinking of ways to deliver information back to ourselves.

Remember that we don't need to share all the information we gain with the living - only if we find out somebody is a predator. I'm thinking how to do that but odds are I need to go to bed before I come to any conclusions.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Well I'm home and I just want to go to sleep.

As of now, I have no idea who I should vote, and I'd actually still like a tie->no lynch today (only today, not every day, I don't even know who first twisted it that way). Let me explain once again why.

• Whether we lynch somebody on DAY 1 or not, the Dead can only start voting for role reveals on NIGHT 3. If we lynch now, they'll have to choose between 4 people. If we don't, there will only be 3. I see that we'd benefit from narrowing down the options. Especially as the role vote is the only way to find out dead people's alignment until the seer dies.

If somebody would like to explain the actual benefits of lynching somebody today, I'm more than willing to reconsider, but as I see it, we're trying to apply old rules to a new concept.

Very tired but skimming through looking for oddities, this post by Aganzir struck me. This is surely (deliberate?) misinformation. The dead get their power of voting and enquiry not on the third night but when there are three dead. Since there should be (barring a successful protection or double targeting) one lynching and two night kills that means that it is more likely than not that the dead can start influencing things in the second cycle.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Very tired but skimming through looking for oddities, this post by Aganzir struck me. This is surely (deliberate?) misinformation. The dead get their power of voting and enquiry not on the third night but when there are three dead. Since there should be (barring a successful protection or double targeting) one lynching and two night kills that means that it is more likely than not that the dead can start influencing things in the second cycle.

I think what she means is on the Dead thread, during the DAY they vote on who gets an extra vote amongst the Living, and during the NIGHT phase, vote on who amongst the Dead gets revealed as a Predator or Prey.

Therefor, they won't cast a vote to reveal one of the Dead's roles until NIGHT 3. If we lynch today, and 2 wolf kills tonight. DAY 2, the 3 dead will be able to vote who in the Living gets an extra vote. And if there's a lynch DAY 2, than NIGHT 3 they make their first role reveal vote, but there's 4 dead now. Where if we don't lynch someone today, and the same plays out...wolves kill 2. The 2 Dead, on DAY 2 aren't enough to grant a Living the extra vote. Then we make a lynch DAY 2, so by the time they reach the 3 Dead residents, it's during a NIGHT phase where they will vote on revealing one of their roles.

[Lalaith]

I'm a sentimental old so-and-so, and what I have always really hated about the first-day lynch nomination is that feeling of potentially spoiling someone's else's gaming fun on the very first day.. I'm glad for the Halls of Mandos option, in that respect as it does at least mean that all players can play on in some form or another....

So far, if I am not mistaken, we have all made contributions except for Gwathagor?
I've read through the thread twice, and I'm finding some people making sense in all the confusion, others just plain confusing. Instinctively, I take against this business of planned tied votes - nor do I like placing all our trust in the voices of the dead.

Well, it's my bedtime and I must vote. It may be because I'm very tired and stupid right now, but some of the most confusing posts for me so far have been Legate's. Not much to base a vote on I know, but on the first day it's as good a reason as any...
++LEGATE

[Kuruharan]

Highlight, Lal, highlight!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nilp

I am suspicious of Mac's pooh-poohing (is that a word? It is now!) phantom's plan of transferring information from the Dead to the Living without suggesting an alternative or even a modification to the original.

Oh no no, that's not correct:

Originally Posted by me

The dead should give their extra vote to either A: someone they have reason to believe is innocent; or B: someone who has voted for someone they have reason to believe is guilty. This will give us a solid bit of information to go on, actually.

I make lists because lists is what I make.

Feeling solid enough, for now:
Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie

Somewhere under the radar, way down low
Sally, McCaber, Loslote, Lommy, Lalaith, Eomer, Shasta, Mith, Kath (so many )

Not sure what to do with
Boro, Nogrod, Nerwen, phantom (That's four heavy hitters in there... not happy with the composition of this group.)

Very slightly somewhat suspicious in a vaguely kinda-sorta way
Aganzir - her reply (#69) to morm felt off to me.
Rune - seems a bit more tense than necessary
mormegil - I was originally going to put him under the radar, until I realized I was about to put morm under the radar. Can't be, especially since he did post a few times.

MIA
Gwathagor

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Form

The record bears out that Day 1 lynchings get it wrong significantly more than they get it right (better than 2 innocent deaths on Day 1 for every successful wolf-kill).

The same holds true for the rest of the Days too, though. According to Mac's statistics, a wolf was lynched in 29 to 35% of the cases on all Days but, for some reason, Day 3 (43%, so still more often a miss than a hit) and the very end of the game (Days 7 and 8). So yes, we're statistically more likely to lynch an innocent than a wolf, but that is sadly not a feature of Day 1 but rather of the entire game.


EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Mac

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

You're not leaving me a choice, so here we go. According to math, the interval from 14% to 44% has a 95% chance to contain the population probability for the success of Day 1 lynches.

Erm... I'm sorry can somebody translate this into English please?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Erm... I'm sorry can somebody translate this into English please?

It's statistics. Many linguists have died trying to translate it into human speech.