Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

For another, although 1-in-4 is a reasonably good chance of hitting on a wolf, it's still not as good as the 3-in-4 chance of missing one altogether.

You know, the only time we have a higher random chance to lynch a wolf than to lynch an innocent is when the wolves win.

Originally Posted by Form

Even so, we can't calculate OUR odds of lynching a wolf off what has actually happened in the past, any more than you can say the odds of flipping a coin Heads or Tails on a given toss is anything other than 50/50--even if the ACTUAL flipping has come up 52/48 in favour of Heads. Although the Day 1 lynch rate for wolves has certainly been historically better than utter chance would predict, it is nonetheless close to what chance predicts.

You're not leaving me a choice, so here we go. According to math, the interval from 14% to 44% has a 95% chance to contain the population probability for the success of Day 1 lynches.
Yeeah, I expected the interval to be terrible, but not this terrible. Form has a point.

Regardless. The day is a time for lynching, void of scruple or remorse. I will not abstain.

Since Immanuel Kant? ...ahem.

Kant is annoying, don't ever mention him again.

Immanuel Kant was a real ****ant, who was very rarely stable...

Sorry, had to.


Ok, enough of this. The next time I post I will actually put down something substantial. Or at least I'll try.


edit: shaking my head at the forum's auto-censoring