Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Macalaure]

Writing stuff down as I go through the early day posting.

There's something odd going on in #247,248,250:
First, Sally suggests Rune might have been a wolf killed by the other wolves. I'm not following her reasoning really. Also, I don't think that's their priority yet.
Then Morm is all over it for this reason, which is ok, but also because she's "trying to make a case against a dead man". How else are we going to figure something out at this point before we get any evidence back from the dead?
Then Lottie is all over morm for being "weirdly defensive", making him highly suspicious. I get criticizing him, but that's too quick over too little.

...aaand then Greenie mentions the exact same thing, just more eloquently. Well, actually not the exact same thing, since I'm raising half an eyebrow at morm, too.


Firefoot, I really don't think you can base any suspicions on whether people wanted a tied vote or not. I mean, you yourself give reason why both goodies and baddies could be for or against it.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who

I'll gladly admit that I wasn't actually helpful yet at that point. I even admitted it yesterDay. It was early-ish Day1, and a good part of the village hadn't even posted yet.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent.

Because I read what other people post and it changes my opinion of them? Shocker...

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me.

I wasn't gleeful. I feel genuinely bad for the man. In the last dead thread -type game, he was lynched right away early on, too.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The tone of this, now, seems oddly confident of how the wolves reasoned and oddly specific.

I suspected Rune yesterDay because his tone felt off. Then I realized it might be because he's gifted, so I backed off quietly. I guess I'm projecting my thoughts on the wolves?

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Who is saved by this flurry? Aganzir.

That's why the later Nog votes (Eomer, Shasta, Sally) bother me more than the earlier ones (Boro, tp, maybe Loslote). For the later it was an easy way to pile votes, for the earlier it was a risk.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I love that Macalaure took the trouble to consider that I might be a gifted before he decided to vote for me.

I didn't consider it, I dismissed it.

Originally Posted by Legate

I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!!

First rule of Werewolf: Don't do what the phantom tells you to do.
Can we edit the werewolf sticky?

Actually, though, the beginning of Legate's post 270 doesn't sit right with me. It's almost all about why the phantom was the one and only logical choice for the wolves (highly debateable), and then he concludes that phantom must have been a wolf because both packs didn't go for him (jumping to conclusion). I mean, come on.

Originally Posted by Legate

One thing is also that I am not sure how much would WWs try to save a fellow by a bandwagon in this game in such a visible manner.

Without having roles revealed, they might be able to get away with it for longer than usual. Unfortunately.

Originally Posted by Legate

there probably would be at least one baddie among the Nog voters - regardless of Nog's actual role and the role of the bandwagon. Just too good a bandwagon to pass,

What makes it any better than the other bandwaggons? It was rushed, last minute, and awfully obvious. I'd actually say it was a bad one to hide in.


About phantom hinting at hunter-ism with his "kill me" post. Hunters have awfully bad chances early in the game, and the phantom should know this, and therefore would not make a post like that until he has a thorough grasp on who to take down with him, which I don't think he had yet. Of course, this doesn't mean the wolves didn't interpret it this way.


Previewing my post... what an ugly mess of quotes and comments. I offer apologies.

[Thinlómien]

Macalaure seems horribly... mischevious? Carefree? I think that might be indicative of him being an ordo who's just decided to enjoy the ride.

Originally Posted by Boro

For example, if they were able to uncover phantom's role last night, then toDAY we could set up something like...

if you discovered tp is a predator give an extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Aganwagon.

If tp is a pretty give the extra vote to someone in the Day 1 Nogwagon.

...etc

Wait - the only works from toMorrow on, right? Because last Night Nogrod would have hardly alone uncovered he role of... Nogrod.

Originally Posted by Eomer

One small point: Lommy's post #271 mistakenly quotes me. I don't know who posted those words but it certainly wasn't me.

Oops, I'm sorry! I checked, it was Boro. I added a correction to the quote so it shouldn't confuse anyone anymore.

Originally Posted by Form

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates.

Well, we're not arguing anymore but thre has been nothing to lessen my suspicion of Aganzir, and to be honest I don't have very many other leads before I sit down to think a bit more.

*off to do that next*

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

But anyway, you're being sloppy (deliberately or not) lumping me in with "the wolf-on-wolf people"

Hmm? *goes to read again*

Originally Posted by Rikae, yesterDay

I would think the Lommy vs. Agan stuff looked wolf-on-wolfy, if this were a game where that made sense.

Ugh, yeah... reading comprehension. Never mind that part.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Some quick reactions to a few things I found suspicious or worthy of attention that I bumped into as I read...

Originally Posted by Loslote

Furthermore, I think the fact that the second person killed was tp is telling. I doubt the wolves thought tp was Gifted - unless they figured he was bluffing, or double bluffing, or whatever, but that's a hard loop to get into when it's all centered around tp. My thought is that, if the pack which killed tp had had a solid lead on a Gifted, they would have gone with that over tp. Therefore, I don't think it's a terrible assumption to say that neither pack had a solid lead on a Gifted last Night, and that both went with other options.

Oho! Well here is a suspicious thing if I have ever seen one. This sounds exactly like a Wolf accidentally telling about what they were telling their packmates at Night. "Our pack didn't have a solid lead on Gifted, so that's what happened." Just a note, but made Lottie jump further on my list.

Originally Posted by mormegil

I don't think the idea should be written off either, however as I've indicated it's much more likely they were trying to target a potential seer than a wolf from a different pack. What bothered me about Sally's post was how she immediately jumped to that conclusion that "Well they must have thought Rune was a wolf". Why must that have been the immediate conclusion? You don't strike me as suspicious because you are looking at other sides and sticking your neck out a bit. But when such an early post comes to an immediate and seemingly definitive conclusion that is somewhat counter-intuitive and the other possibility isn't even consider, yes I will consider that suspicious.

And this also a bit. The second part ("you don't strike me as suspicious...") is suddenly quite defensive, quite unnecessarily, I would say.

Originally Posted by Rikae

The wishy-washiness of Firefoot's suspicions is the sort that often strikes me as wolfy fishing "let's put forward some candidates but not commit, see if anyone nibbles".

Agreed. Personally I do not know what to make of Firefoot, it isn't particularly striking impression, but the bit of wishy-washiness is there.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

In the cold light of day, the Agan/Lommy spat seems to have vanished as quickly as it started,which is either proof of innocence or a sign of Nightly discussion in my mind, which makes me think for the first time that they might be littermates.

Interesting opinion! Wouldn't have occured to me, but at least on purely theoretical basis, why not. I am not too inclined to believe it, but it is possible.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.

I just mentioned Lottie above (and Firefoot too, in fact), I am not sure if I would really go so far to vote for them. Mac does not seem any less suspicious to me than before, there is an aura of uncertainity about him, although too, he wouldn't yet probably get my vote. My top suspect still remains to be Greenie, and in regards to what she said herself, I think I could rephrase: it isn't really that she is being nice, it is that she is too happy. And if there is anything she is happy about, it's being a Werewolf. It's simply the whole behavior and attitude, while also stirring the pot without being involved in any horrible brawl (which could get her under scrutiny) and being noncommital.

I will probably post a list of what I think of everyone now, also for personal clarification.

EDIT: x-ed with the last few

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I have internet at the hotel, and I have my laptop!

I'll try and get caught up momentarily.

For now, Boro's explanation is acceptable; it just seemed odd to me at the time. Lottie is one I'd like to look at today; there's something she's normally done in games by now that she hasn't yet and I'm curious as to the reason.

[Loslote]

Oh, and Shasta -

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lottie is one I'd like to look at today; there's something she's normally done in games by now that she hasn't yet and I'm curious as to the reason.

What do I usually do that I had not done yet? It's been bugging me all game.

[Formendacil]

Good grief--work an honest day and come back to see... I don't even have a word for it.

++Loslote

Clearly, I need to do some rereading and digesting. Even if I had a cogent reason to think Nerwen anything other than truthful--and the Secret Role, whatever we call it and whatever its powers, seems to fit here--about this communication, Lottie's admission seems to be complete. And last I checked, this game has no Cobbler.

Definitely going to need to sift her (probably misleading) posts for nuggets of truth.

[Mithalwen]

When I did my bored/go out on my own terms reveal in Sauce's two pack game, I told the truth pretty much as far as I knew or believed. I certainly told no lies...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Definitely going to need to sift her (probably misleading) posts for nuggets of truth.

I urge skepticism, certainly, but even if there are omissions I think it's worth looking into. We can't turn our backs on something that could be so vital. It's odd that you summarily dismiss the idea, not seemingly in protection of Firefoot but of not trusting a wolf. I'm uncertain of Firefoot as a wolf but if she is I wonder if you are her mate. Also, it would seem that Lottie's motivation is that of not letting the other pack win, it seems a matter of pride really. It would fit, then, that she would give the info that she knew at the time.

Anyway,

++Loslote

[Thinlómien]

It's really quite impossible to make much sensible stuff out of yesterDay's votes without knowing Nogrod's role (grumble grumble).

Agan is unlikely to be in cahoots with Mith, Mccaber or Mac (hard to imagine the wolves would aim to sacrifice each other because it doesn't even make them look good with the undisclosed roles).

Likewise it's unlikely Nogrod's packmates were the phantom, Lottie, Shasta, Eomer or Sally.

Form does look innocent.

...and that's it.

Now, as I still think it's pretty likely Agan is a wolf (yes, my reason might seem like a small thing, but 1) it's this kind of small things that are actual clues and 2) it's not like I have a better idea), I'm going to sacrifice a moment for thinking who might (have) be(en) her packmate.

Basically it boils down to the nogawagon bunch: the phantom, Lottie, Shasta, Eomer and Sally.

Interestingly enough, I already suspected Sally yesterDay. This hardly makes her look better to me. Lottie? Shasta? Eomer? Hmmm, maybe. Entertaining myself with the idea that the phantom was Agan's packmate and tried to save her. (Yes, he would totally do that, especially in a game like this.) Then the other wolfgang () killed him, would've served him right.

But really, the above is just all flimsy speculation...

A quick list, including the dead:

(reasoning attached if it hasn't been mentioned before or is other than gut feeling/ general impression)

Innocent
Lalaith
Mac
Legate
Rikae - I disagree with them a lot but I think they're likely innocent
Form - I disagree with him a lot but I think he's very likely innocent
morm
Rune
Nilp

Questionable
Greenie - she just seems too sensible to me?
Firefoot - I agree she's throwing wishy washy suspicion around
Shasta
Eomer
Lottie
the phantom
Nogrod
Kath
Gwath
McCaber
Nerwen
Mith

Wolfy
Agan
Sally
Boro - he's starting to rub me the wrong way really bad toDay; he just seems terribly fake (sorry muffin)

That was very substantial. I don't know if I should really just go with my gut/ the few points I've noticed and accept this is a different kind of game, or whether I should feel properly shamed about my lack of analytical thinking and do something about it.

I mean, I DO think I'm onto something with Agan so it's not like my brain's not working, but I'm still not very happy about the fact that my suspicion list looks very similar to how it looked like late yesterDay - toDay has hardly changed anything so far.

Sorry if this post seems like it was written by a scatterbrain, that's how I feel. (I've had a long day and too little sleep three nights in a row. Definitely going to bed earlier today. Meaning, soon.)


edit. xed with everyone

[Thinlómien]

Okay folks, I really need to go to sleep, my brain is slowing down minute by minute.

I agree the dead should make the lynches their priority as they are a lot more informative about the wolves' identities (I mean we KNOW the wolves killed the phantom and Rune with 95% certainty) and thus check Nogrod toNight.

++Aganzir

Her perspective yesterDay still looks very wolvish, and even though she's been chill and conciliatory toDay, I'm not buying the idea that all her defensiveness yesterDay was only due to her tiredness. Also if she was a wolf and almost got lynched yesterDay, being nice and steering away from yesterDay's controversy would be exactly the smart thing to do. Which of course doesn't *make* her a wolf, but it's worth keeping in mind, especially for those who feel like letting her off the hook because of her less weird behaviour toDay.

Good night folks! /Lommy out


edit: xed with Lalaith

[Lalaith]

So...yesterday I was feeling that Greenie made sense and this hasn't changed today. Nerwen and Loslote also seem mostly clear and helpful - (although having said that, Loslote's post 260 completely lost me, and did Nerwen explain her missing the vote yesterday?).
Rikae and Lommy fluctuate between clarity and obscurity. Firefoot seems to me to be chasing red herrings but that doesn't necessarily mean she's guilty - in a mad game like this, one woman's red herring is another's vital clue. Legate confused me yesterday and still continues to do so today. Half the time he seems to be setting up an argument only to knock it down. Boro and Mac make me uneasy. The rest, I don't know.

Having said all that, I am still pursuing the thesis I began to set up this morning. Yes, the Nog bandwaggon probably contains at least one wolf but it is very difficult to decide who they/he/she was. Aganzir looks the most ropey to me, not just because of her behaviour and not just because the Nog bandwaggon saved her, but because the Nog bandwaggon only began once he'd named her as someone he would vote for.
So, because unlike some of my fellow Europeans I do not have the steely stamina to stay at my keyboard til dawn, I'm going to vote now.
++Aganzir

edit: x-post with Lommy

[Lalaith]

Oh, one more thing before I go. I'm still chewing over that narration... the 'itch' mentioned - could it be linked to Pippin and the palantir? Remember Gandalf saying to him "If you feel an itch in your palms again, tell me of it!"
Kuru spoke of the role having vulnerabilities, and indeed, looking into the palantir was dangerous...
Anyway, I'm a fine one for going on about others chasing red herrings...I think I need to stop this and go to bed....

[Rikae]

Well, I have a minute and neither of them posted much, so:

Loslote:

Day 1

12 - Banter
22 - Arguing against tying the vote. Interesting reasoning: if we can lynch a wolf from each pack, the wolves will turn on each other instead of trying to kill gifteds, so we should take a chance to lynch a wolf, or so I gather. Seems an odd line of reasoning - we want to lynch a wolf in general, after all, and the wolves are against each other already (or at least, want to whittle the other pack down), and even if they are down one, they are most likely to prioritize the seer while s/he is at large in any event. So, odd. Maybe wolfish, just for thinking in terms of whittling down (the other) wolf pack.
23 - Clarifies about responding to phantom.
28 - False reveal is unlikely, but possible. Concerned about the dead deceiving us.
48 - Village has a 25% chance of lynching a wolf, wolves at night have a 15% chance. Actually wrong (though I didn't realize it at the time) because of the two kills: it's actually 27.75 that the wolves kill a wolf. Also, the wolves had a higher chance of killing a gifted than the 25% she gives: 43.75% (wow).
Could just be mistaken math. I thought it was right at first, too. However, it does mislead.
54 -Against a tie because of last post, also against letting dead decide lynch (so that people leave trails with their votes).
196 -Doesn't think Agan is suspicious, suspects Nog. Pre-Nogawagon.
205 -Don't rule Nog, Agan, Lommy out for being in the spotlight. because it's their playing style.
220 - Votes Nog.

Overall, looks safe, fairly consistent in pursuing Nog (little too consistent? I'm not sure), said some misleading things. Bad vibes.

Day 2

250 - Sally's theory about Rune being killed for looking wolfish not too far fetched. Well, it is far fetched (says me). Far-fetched theories are a specialty of Sally's, though, so I find Lottie's defense of it (and subsequent suspicion of Morm) much more worrying.
260 - Theorizing that a third packmate (not Morm) was implicated by Rune's death, and Morm's trying to protect that person. Ok, this is getting really convoluted and is based on something unlikely (Rune being a wolf) in the first place. Looks like trying to patch together a theory after the fact. Innocents can do that too sometimes, of course, to back up a hunch or an unformed impression. No conclusion.
293 - Continues defending her theory. Now, I agree with her that wolves don't just go for gifteds, but it remains their top priority, and Rune looking gifted seems to have more basis in, well, his actual posts. Her "the other pack went for phantom" argument seems especially odd. She's accusing morm of being a wolf who knows the truth of the night kill, but that's actually the feeling I get from her. That is, maybe her pack actually did think Rune was a wolf, so that theory seems most reasonable to her, and therefore morm seems like an easy (and possibly enemy-wolfish) target for speaking against it?
296 - Votes morm "for reasons stated above".

Conclusion: There's much to raise an eyebrow here. I could vote for Lottie.

Edit: X'd with Shasta onwards.