Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Loslote · 06-01-2015, 09:50 PM

My question is, what sort of creature could cause our host and his pet dragon to hide in fear?

the phantom · 06-01-2015, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nilp

If I hadn't a class thrust into me during the time DAY had started, that's exactly what I would've done.

Too bad you didn't have time for it. I'm itching to start things rolling.

But the self-vote... Was it just tradition, or an honest tactic? (i.e. You can't be around much at first anyway so may as well die since you'll still be alive in the Dead Thread and it will dodge the chance of a Gifted being offed Day 1... Sort of a noble kinda-sorta-sacrifice.)

the phantom · 06-01-2015, 10:10 PM

I swear, every time I refresh the Mirth forum I think, "Ooo, haven't read that thread!" and nearly click on the Dead Thread.

Am I the only person this is happening to?

satansaloser2005 · 06-01-2015, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

I swear, every time I refresh the Mirth forum I think, "Ooo, haven't read that thread!" and nearly click on the Dead Thread.

Am I the only person this is happening to?

Is this your way of asking us to kill you? Because I think ++Nilp's approach might be more effective.

(Also, yes, me too. I'm going to have to be very careful while on my phone so I don't mix up the two threads.)

the phantom · 06-01-2015, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by me

Would I completely be ruining the mood if I immediately launch into strategy and population/role analysis?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

Honestly, given our current circumstance, it would be calming. Or at the least, it would give me something else to be stressed about.

Well then, since I have permission, I do believe I'll work on a very non-fluffy post.

satansaloser2005 · 06-01-2015, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then, since I have permission, I do believe I'll work on a very non-fluffy post.

Bless.

the phantom · 06-01-2015, 10:32 PM

But anyway, that first scenario might be a bit dark, so let's look at another direction this thing can go...

Seer dreams of two innocents Night 1 and two innocents Night 2 (not that unlikely). We purposefully tie the vote Day 1 and 2 so we don't lynch anyone. Night 2 kills are only Ordos (or a WW and an Ordo, or a protection and an Ordo).

Day 3 Seer reveals himself and 4 innocent dreams and Ranger/Hunter/Lovers also reveal, giving us 9 known innocents. That night the Ranger protects the Seer and the Seer brings us two additional innocents to balance the Ranger/Lover that were offed during the Night. We would at that point have 9 known innocents in a village of 19, thus giving us a 60% chance of lynching a WW. Let's say that night the WWs kill the Seer and other Lover, but the day before the Seer could tell us exactly who he was dreaming that night and whoever he finds innocent he'll make sure the Dead Thread gives a bonus vote to that person (so we have another known) meaning that even if we missed on the lynch yet again the day after we'd be sitting at 7-3-3 with SIX known innocents, thus we'd have a 6/7 chance of lynching a WW. If we missed yet again we'd sit at 4-3-3 with all four innocents being KNOWN, meaning all six Werewolves would then be known. (But then who the heck knows how that would go down, since everyone would know who was guilty and yet the innocents would be outweighed overall 4-6.)

(At least I THINK I did all of that correctly.

)

So, you can see that by just avoiding killing Gifteds and getting good dreams, we can still have a possible win even if we're terrible at lynching.

But back to my earlier scenario, if the Seer (or Seer & Ranger) both die in the first two cycles, then the village could be cut down very swiftly and would be lucky indeed to pull through.

I mean, wow, Kuru- this thing is mighty complicated!

the phantom · 06-01-2015, 10:34 PM

There Sally. Text to chew on. I even broke it into two pieces so it seems like more. (like sliders)

Loslote · 06-01-2015, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

So, you can see that by just avoiding killing Gifteds and getting good dreams, we can still have a possible win even if we're terrible at lynching.

And I think we have to assume that we are, since it'll be a while until we get any confirmation one way or the other, and even that won't be as concrete as I would feel comfortable with. I'm intrigued by your plan to tie the vote for the first Day at least. I am a little worried that we would wind up without any evidence to work off of the next Day, but we wouldn't have that solid of evidence even if we do lynch someone, right?

Then again, it seems to me that the best way to set the two packs against each other is simply to kill one wolf from either pack - then the pack which is down a member will by necessity switch its focus from the Gifteds to the other pack, since the only way for them to win would be to kill at least two members of the other pack. Whether or not the other pack switched focus, too - though I think they would soon enough - we would have a bit of a reprieve. Plus, to have two wolves actively and jointly targeting the others would be much more obvious than to have three wolves coasting in the background.

To get back to my point, I think probably we should take any chance we can to bag a wolf, since doing so would not only wittle down the pack numbers, but would also help turn the Night kills away from our Gifteds and towards the other pack. The question is, I guess, is it better statistically to have the chance to potentially turn the Night kills away from the Gifteds, or to avoid the risk that we ourselves might kill a Gifted by mistake? If we kill the Seer Day 1, we're in huge trouble, but I suppose they can still do some good in the Dead Thread. If we kill a wolf, we've gained a lot, and I might be hugely naive here, but I feel like they are less of a threat in the Dead Thread than in the Living Thread. So I would say that I personally think a Day 1 lynch is worth the risk, but that's kind of subjective, and I would definitely like to see other peoples' perspectives.

Loslote · 06-02-2015, 12:01 AM

Just to clarify, because in hindsight I realized I never did quote it, I was responding in my above post to this comment of the phantom's:

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

We purposefully tie the vote Day 1 and 2 so we don't lynch anyone.

satansaloser2005 · 06-01-2015, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Would I completely be ruining the mood if I immediately launch into strategy and population/role analysis?

Honestly, given our current circumstance, it would be calming. Or at the least, it would give me something else to be stressed about.

Meanwhile, my darling boy seems to be settling back in quite nicely. I see you've taken comfort in old habits during this time of tragedy.

Let's keep our focus though, precious. We mustn't lose sight of what's important: Ridding ourselves of these hooligans so we can party!

Full disclosure: ToDay likely will be rather quiet for me, as I have a busy evening tomorrow and am not sure how much I'll be able to (read, remember to) get on the Downs.

Mithalwen · 06-02-2015, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

My question is, what sort of creature could cause our host and his pet dragon to hide in fear?

Me in a party dress,

That is an admission not a confession in case fervid minds get carried away on Day 1.

Oh Nilp.... Mummie is not cross, just disappointed..

Don't suppose Kuru left breakfast? This is going to be a long haul; I may need bacon aswell as caffeine.

Rune Son of Bjarne · 06-02-2015, 04:38 AM

Personally I am loving the idea of empowering the dead! It seems like a very barrow-wightish thing to do, and perhaps it could evolve into a religion of sorts.

If we chose to tie the vote, I doubt that we would risk loosing data for us to analyze at a later stage. After all there is more to pack-behavior and whatnot than voting patterns.

Sorry for the shoret cameo, I will return again later.

06-01-2015, 09:50 PM	#1
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	My question is, what sort of creature could cause our host and his pet dragon to hide in fear? __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

06-01-2015, 10:10 PM	#3
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	I swear, every time I refresh the Mirth forum I think, "Ooo, haven't read that thread!" and nearly click on the Dead Thread. Am I the only person this is happening to? __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-01-2015, 10:32 PM	#7
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	But anyway, that first scenario might be a bit dark, so let's look at another direction this thing can go... Seer dreams of two innocents Night 1 and two innocents Night 2 (not that unlikely). We purposefully tie the vote Day 1 and 2 so we don't lynch anyone. Night 2 kills are only Ordos (or a WW and an Ordo, or a protection and an Ordo). Day 3 Seer reveals himself and 4 innocent dreams and Ranger/Hunter/Lovers also reveal, giving us 9 known innocents. That night the Ranger protects the Seer and the Seer brings us two additional innocents to balance the Ranger/Lover that were offed during the Night. We would at that point have 9 known innocents in a village of 19, thus giving us a 60% chance of lynching a WW. Let's say that night the WWs kill the Seer and other Lover, but the day before the Seer could tell us exactly who he was dreaming that night and whoever he finds innocent he'll make sure the Dead Thread gives a bonus vote to that person (so we have another known) meaning that even if we missed on the lynch yet again the day after we'd be sitting at 7-3-3 with SIX known innocents, thus we'd have a 6/7 chance of lynching a WW. If we missed yet again we'd sit at 4-3-3 with all four innocents being KNOWN, meaning all six Werewolves would then be known. (But then who the heck knows how that would go down, since everyone would know who was guilty and yet the innocents would be outweighed overall 4-6.) (At least I THINK I did all of that correctly. ) So, you can see that by just avoiding killing Gifteds and getting good dreams, we can still have a possible win even if we're terrible at lynching. But back to my earlier scenario, if the Seer (or Seer & Ranger) both die in the first two cycles, then the village could be cut down very swiftly and would be lucky indeed to pull through. I mean, wow, Kuru- this thing is mighty complicated! __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-01-2015, 10:34 PM	#8
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	There Sally. Text to chew on. I even broke it into two pieces so it seems like more. (like sliders) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.