Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Here's the post I was talking about.

Edit:fixed link.

[Formendacil]

Just a quick post--I seem to have my technological means back toDay, so I should be around in the last several hours, though I'm off to work for now.

Someone--I've already lost whom in catching up--pointed out that people voted for Agan on back-to-back days. This isn't a surefire indicator of lupinity, but taking Day 1 hunches and doggedly following them on Day 2 is as likely to be a cover of a furry bandwaggon as not.

Also, Eomer is coming across far more cryptically today. I don't know what that means...

[Nerwen]

Now, what do people think of our little snow flower, Lottie? Rikae went after her yesterDay, and now Rikae's dead, so….?

Edit:x’d with Form.

[Mithalwen]

Nerwen, that link isn't working for me..could you check it or just give a number ref? Cheers.

[Nerwen]

Okay, I’ve fixed it.

[Mithalwen]

She says a lot including the comment that "I am not going there (the dead thread) alone" (my italic). To my mind that is as good a hint as you could get that she is the hunter and given that her death triggered Greenie's I think that is more likely than the special role the bear trap quote not withstanding.

[Thinlómien]

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Second - it seems I was wrong about the aforementioned deceased giggler. I'm honestly quite baffled because I still think her actions were pretty incriminating, but unless one of the wolves of each pack is blessed with the hunter's gifts without that being said in the rules, I have obviously been mistaken. I guess I'm starting to understand what Agan meant when she once jokingly said she always plays like a wolf even if she's an innocent... As for Greenie - well we can hope she was a wolf, but we can't really assume that. More on Greenie later.

Third - last Night: what on earth?? I'm still leaning towards the interpretation that Agan was the hunter (because otherwise the mysterious special role would be very similar to that of the hunter) and the special role bloodied their hands last Night. I agree that the special person killing Mac seems the most likely, but I'll still sacrifice a thought or two to that.

If I have the time, I'd so skim through all the Night killed people's posts.

People talking about the dead thread scrying people - before we start thinking if we can give them any instructions, we should check what the rules say: (there seemed to be some confusion, also in my own head)

Since in the Afterlife (or in the anteroom of the Afterlife) it is hard to hide one's true nature from one's fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are three residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. Their specific role will not be revealed but rather the voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY.

"Every night after". So as the phantom and the rune only died on Night2, we should assume the dead thread didn't get to check anyone's role on Night2. And last Night, their options would have been Nogrod, the phantom, Rune, Agan and Greenie.

Now, we said they should check a lynch. I think that on principle, they would agree. This would make Nogrod the logical option as we can assume Agan was the hunter (or the special role). But then again, it's been a while since Nogrod's death and they might feel knowing Greenie's role is more useful. (Remember Agan and Greenie would have been part of decision board last Night.)

Okay so let me do a little maths before I embarrass myself:

We send Sally the volunteered lover (hi there!) to the dead thread by lynching her toDay (Day3).
If her partner manages to hide, Sally will return on Day5, knowing the roles of the people the dead scried on Night3 and Night4, right?
Now I'd love to actually NOT lynch Sally but a potential wolf instead, and leave the wolf packs wondering if they should off Sally or the other wolf pack will, and hopefully both going for Sally.
The downside of this strategy is that I'm not sure if the wolves wouldn't rather try to avoid killing Sally or her partner at all and hope the lovers with their special information will never come to be of (special) use to the village at all. They can afford the village to have one known innocent, I would think, it's more the question of whether they'd rather kill Sally and then try to kill her lover before she comes back, or whether they'd rather try to avoid night-killing or lynching either for as long as the game lasts, or actually, as long as there's still likely to be two more games.
Wow this gives me headache.

Okay a little more maths on top of this:

We're now 15 living people. In the worst ever case scenario, there's 9 innocents against 3 wolves against 3 wolves. Now let's assume the seer's dreams don't help us to lynch a wolf, the special role doesn't kill anybody anymore and the ranger doesn't make a save, and the wolves don't hit the same target or each other. (this is hopefully all very pessimistic)

We lynch lover-Sally on Day 3. It's 8-3-3.
An ordo and Sally's lover are killed on Night 4. It's 6-3-3.
We lynch an innocent on Day 4. It's 5-3-3.
Two innocents are killed on Night 5. It's 3-3-3.
Sally doesn't return from the dead to lift the ratio to 4-3-3. The village loses on Day5 with a tied wolf victory.

Now replace lynching Sally with lynching any other innocent toDay (and remove all talk of the lovers), and the worst case scenario is the same (tied wolf victory on Day5), the only difference is that we have two shots at lynching the wolf (toDay and toMorrow) instead of one (if we intentionally lynch Sally toDay).

I don't think it will come down to this. I think it's feasible to assume that at least 1-2 wolves are already dead, maybe more. Also the gifteds might be able to help us.

All I'm saying is, I'm not for lynching Sally without thinking it over a little more still. I guess it comes down to if taking a risk for the information about 2 scried dead people plus whatever other info the dead might have (seer dreams???) is worth "losing" a Day.

Now emphasis on the word "risk". Combined, the wolf packs have four shots at getting Sally's lover while she's in the underworld.

I guess my conclusion is:

The information is worth lynching a known innocent toDay. (I think this might be the first time ever I'm advocating not trying to lynch a wolf. Strange things happen.)
However I'm not sure we're likely to win this bet, which would make me tempted to push the choice over to the wolves and make them use their Night-kills for that instead of killing possible gifteds.

And geez, now I'm flip-flopping even more. My inner pessimist is asking if it really helps us to know the roles of two dead people (if the dead indeed have no other information) because a) they might both be innocent and b) even analyzing dead wolves' posts has never been a foolproof way to find their packmates.

Okay, now I'm flip-flopping out. I'll be back later - there's a ton of small things said by people earlier toDay and late yesterDay that I'd love to comment on.

But I really think we need think it over before lynching Sally. I'm inconclusive myself. The idea of the wolves having four shots in total at finding her lover sounds pretty bleak to me. Then again, I *do* want to know what the dead know, and it would be weird not to try to use the lovers to our advantage. (If the advantage in this warped case isn't using them as a wolf bait.)

/ confused Lommy out, please discuss

[Boromir88]

Talk of lynching a lover should be dismissed. Period. You all were up in arms Day 1 about the thought of tying the vote for no-lynch because it spoils the random 25% chance of lynching a wolf. Now you want to lynch a possible lover?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Oh, they’re having a party there, by the look of things. Every time I go back to the main page it show a different corpse has just posted.

I agree that we definitely need to think this lynching Sally business over. So nobody jump in and vote for her yet, please. I’d find that very suspicious, actually.

Lommy, I’ve been asking what people think of various people. What do you think of Nilp? And Lottie? I have a particular reason for wanting to know.
EDIT:x’d with Boro.

[Nerwen]

You too, Boro.

[Nerwen]

I will explain fairly soon, but I just want some opinions first.

Also, what do people think of Eomer? And Firefoot?

[Boromir88]

Lottie, I haven't formed much of an opinion on, she's skating under my nose.

Nilp seems focused on the Dead activity and not so on suspects, or the task during the day. It would look off for anyone except Nilp, he tends to be focused on his own death.

I'm feeling better about morm today, his post on the Agan voters looks like the down-to-business, no shenanigans, let's lynch someone self that I was so used to back in the days long gone.

I still am getting a lost, don't have many clues feel from Lommy, Firefoot, and Form.

If sally is really a lover, that'll help as long as we don't lynch her (I can't believe that idea was tossed out). Yeah, I like info as much as the next person, but we don't lynch a gifted, we need to be lynching wolves.

Those who stirred the idea, top my suspicious list (Eomer and McCaber). Everyone else, Mith, Lalaith, Shasta, Lottie, Kath (missing anyone), I need to put more thought into.

[Nerwen]

Thank you. I want to hear from a few more people, though.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I swear, every time I refresh the Mirth forum I think, "Ooo, haven't read that thread!" and nearly click on the Dead Thread.

You (and the others) are making it worse, darling. Shut up already.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

On the whole, I agree with Mac; while the wolf packs will undoubtedly attempt to eliminate each other, we can't really afford to leave all wolf hunting to the Night kills and not use our vote.

Noted for a bit later, and also because the way she words this seems too careful to me.

Originally Posted by McCaber

My own opinion is that every day without a lynch is a day the wolves can build up an uncontested lead and a day that gives us no real information to build off of in the future. Early lynches, arguments, and voting patterns are how you build solid cases and catch inconsistencies. Delaying for three days just leaves us that far behind when it comes to detective work.

Of course a wolf looking to seem reasonable would say the same thing, but this strikes me as a genuine statement from McCaber and makes me think him rather innocent.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Also I enjoy plans I haven't thought up my self (especially if I can take some credit for them), long walks at the beach, and killing Europeans.

So perhaps this was just a silly comment, but between Greenie’s comment above, Rune’s comment here (with a minor emphasis on the fact that he said “kill” rather than “lynch”), and the events of the first Night and second Day, I’m wondering if Greenie suspected Rune of being a rival wolf.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals.

....Is that the hint I think it is? It caught my eye, and with last Night’s events, I’m tempted to assume Mac is (rather, was) the special role, whatever that may be. I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on this. Lal (was it her?) mentioned the possibility of the special role shifting. It’s possible that if one uses the role’s power, they die the following cycle or something. I’m leaving this alone for the moment and will return to it sometime later.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

[*]We're not the only people trying to take out wolves. Other wolves will do it too, purposefully or by accident, by night kills.

This is noted purely because, given my above, it’s possible the subsequent Night’s events made Agan think as I did and therefore shift her pick to Greenie. (It could also just be a coincidence.)

Originally Posted by Kath

But I also hadn't realised what aganzir said about Dead Thread voting not starting til Night 3 anyway, which means the fewer people sent there the better really, excepting wolves.

Kath, precious, would you mind explaining this comment? How is it good to have fewer people in the dead thread other than wolves? Wouldn’t that give the wolves an advantage in controlling the dead thread?

Also, not a fan of Kath’s vote for Form Day 1, as it seemed too convenient and an easy way for a wolf to hide, but I’m more confused by the above.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

It seems the village tends away from a tied vote, so while I prefer that as a plan, I should probably come up with a Plan B.

The thing I can’t figure out is why Form would support the non-lynch yet vote himself to be lynched the same Day (rather than vote for someone to tie himself with). It doesn’t necessarily seem like an evil thing to do, but it’s....weird.


Not as much as I’d have liked to glean from Day 1, but these are also just the highlights I felt necessary to point out/question.

I’m beginning to envision some possible wolf pack combinations. More on that in a bit. When last I read the thread, it sounded like Nerwen had something important to share, so I’ll check in on that and then sink my lack of teeth into Day 2 after I grab some lunch.


x'd a way bunch

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen -

I have been sort of ignoring Nilp (sorry dear!) all game as he has seemed fairly innocent to me. Now that I stop to think about him, I guess it's also possible he's furry. I recall a game maybe two years ago when I also kept ignoring him thinking he's innocent and he turned out to be a wolf who had fooled everyone. He's similar to how Greenie was (is??) in my mind - innocent-seeming, but maybe even too much so. I ended up being unsure about Greenie. I feel the same about Nilp.

As for Lottie, she's been similarly off my radar, but unlike Nilp, not on the innocent side. She's seemed a little fishy to me, but not really in a pin-pointable (sorry for that word ) way. I've been partly ignoring it too because I always get suspicious vibes from Lottie anyway. The same way I've been sort of ignoring the debate around her because similar controversy about her always occurs. Lastly, I was also personally finding Lottie suspicious yesterDay for taking part in the weird Nogawagon that happened to save Agan who was my top suspect, but that reasoning is obviously ditched now.

The bottom line? I have of lumping Nilp and Lottie in the "vaguely innocent" and "vaguely suspicious" categories respectively for later consideration and now that I'm sort of doing the "later consideration" by writing this post, Nilp seems a little more furry and Lottie a tiny bit less suspicious (mostly thanks to Agan's innocence) but I don't really know.


edit: xed with a bunch

[Thinlómien]

Eomer - maybe innocent
Firefoot - ???
Boro - fishy, better toDay than earlier though
Mac - I thought he was innocent but the whole village suspecting him kind of has made me second guess myself

I don't really have any suspicions right now so I shouldn't maybe be asked. My main suspects for two Days have been Agan and Sally and I haven't rethought yet.

Of the living, I think the ones that I feel I should scrutinize next are:

Boro
Firefoot
Lottie
Nilp
Eomer
and Shasta

I'm pretty sure there has to be at least 2 wolves in that list.


edit: xed with everyone again

[Lalaith]

In answer to Nerwen's question, I have already said I feel good about Firefoot today, based on her posts. Having said that, I was feeling good about Greenie and my current thesis has her as a wolf so can I trust my feelings?

Speaking of not trusting my feelings - Lottie, I was feeling ok about her yesterday but then I went over Rikae's case against her last night and I thought it was actually pretty convincing. Rikae was as confused as I was by her post (260, sorry not good at links), but unlike me she was smart enough to link it to a bunch of other stuff. Rikae's subsequent killing also makes me even more inclined to trust her reasoning, posthumously.
Mac I thought fairly suspicious. Boro, Eomer, no idea.

I'm going to check now who didn't vote yesterday. Don't know, but such data might be helpful.

[satansaloser2005]

An addendum to my previous post:

Given that the ranger seems to still be in play (let's hope!), rest assured that my precious and I have a whole new plan (rather, an additional plan) in the works to protect xem should they need to reveal at any point. It doesn't make my beloved immune, but it does make my return a little more plausible.

Anyway. Off to reading now, sorry. *poofs*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The Legate-as-Seer theory, based on his Day 2 list, needs to be checked against his Day 1 list.

Green was the sole serious suspect both days.

Nerwen, Lommy and Mith were alone as innocents on Day 2, but were all in the innocent pile on Day 1 as well - along with a bunch of other people. So if Legate is the Seer, did he dream Green on the first night? Why then would he spend both his dreams on people he found innocent? Very unlikely. On the other hand, he might have just got very lucky (or is very good at hunting!) in focusing on Green on Day 1 and confirming his correct suspicion the next night. This is more likely but still a bit of a long shot.

Rikae's focus on Loslote on Day 2 seems more Seerish. She puts great effort into making a case against her (#338) while couching in the post prior that she wanted to take a closer look at Loslote and Firefoot. Interestingly, in that post (#325) she mentions exactly three names as innocents: Agan, Mac and Morm.

This is the post in question.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just popping in to say I'm not particularly happy with the options at the moment. I don't have much time but how do others feel about Firefoot, and about Lottie? These loud, controversial people - Agan, Mac - seem less and less wolfish to me, and I don't see much of a case against Morm.

The comment about Morm does sound rather like classic seer-phrasing, but I'm not so sure about the rest. Though, Rikae was very strongly against lynching Agan on Day One, to the extent of voting Lommy for "fabricating" a case against her- that could mean something.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

An addendum to my previous post:

Given that the ranger seems to still be in play (let's hope!), rest assured that my precious and I have a whole new plan (rather, an additional plan) in the works to protect xem should they need to reveal at any point. It doesn't make my beloved immune, but it does make my return a little more plausible.

Anyway. Off to reading now, sorry. *poofs*

What is xem? Between last night's events and Sally's reveal today I'm a bit perplexed and I get the sense that most of us are feeling the same. I want to make my list of all to help clarify my thoughts and not overlook somebody.

Innocent
Sally--Obvious
Nerwen--Seems sensible and overall trying to help the village
Firefoot--Same
Lal--Same

Unsure
Formendacil--He's gone up and down in my mind which is a bit eyebrow raising and something that needs to be watched.
McCaber--Not sure we've ever played together so he's hard to read. He seems a bit gruff but not alarming.
Boromir--Overall I clump him closer to innocent than guilty as he has spoken some sense today but I've also learned to never trust him and he was somewhat suspicious the first day or two.
Lommy--I am also close to putting her on the innocent list but can't quite bring myself to it. While this hasn't bothered me overly I think we shouldn't let go too quickly of how much she jumped on Agan after my joke. That incident alone began to cast a lot of suspicion on Agan and can be traced directly as a cause to her lynching
Shasta--I get a funky vibe from him that doesn't sit right with me. I believe he's been more reserved today.
Mith--Doesn't like suspicion cast her way but I think is deserving of some. I'd like to continue to watch her.
Kath--What can you say? If she doesn't come tomorrow do we lynch her or let Modfire take its course? I think the lynching would make sense only if we don't have a reasonable suspicion.

Suspicious
Loslote--Has risen in my ranking but the bottom of the 3.
Eomer --Seemed insistent that we auto-lynch the lover and may have forced Sally's hand a bit.
Nilp --As stated earlier something is off and I don't trust him. With Nilp, the first day's behavior is so prescribed that he can follow a script and nobody suspects him. After that we are busy looking elsewhere. His interactions and comments have caused me concern and right now is my top suspect.


x'ed with Shasta and Nerwen