Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

[Rikae]

Actually, what am I thinking? We should scry Lalaith.

If she's truly an ordo, we know there are still two packs about (assuming we're right about Boro's role). That's worth knowing.

Also, she's who the living have asked us to scry, and with so many people here, we won't necessarily have the option to tell them about me (or Legate).
At least Lalaith's role, they should give us a way to communicate.

[Rikae]

"What am I thinking" referring to how I earlier said that we could just assume she was a wolf and scry someone else.

As for toDay's empower, I'm fine with Nerwen, too.

[the phantom]

I would say this could be a chance to use our empower to try and kill the target we want dead (i.e. early voters spread and late voters pick the target), BUT that hardly works if Mac and Lottie are growling around at the deadline and lacking balance for them...

We probably do need to bandwagon.

Anyway, I'm not even going to try theorizing Nerwen and Boro as liars because I've liked them from the start. (Frankly it's a bit funny how little anything has changed for me this game. I'm so stubborn.)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, I'm not even going to try theorizing Nerwen and Boro as liars because I've liked them from the start. (Frankly it's a bit funny how little anything has changed for me this game. I'm so stubborn.)

The Dead thread is making me paranoid. Look at me, happy and trusting Rikae when we lived and what now?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

Well. I'm not sure about this. I've seen Borowolf fake reveal out of the blue just to flush out the real ranger when he felt they needed to take them out - poor Shasta was lynched as the "fake" ranger, and Boro the next day. I can't remember if it resulted in a wolf victory but either way it was effective.

At the moment, there's 12 people alive. Let's say Boro is a wolf and his pack is still in full strength (while they know the other pack is down to 1). In this situation, the special role is the biggest risk to them.

Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special. An innocent is lynched. After two (innocent) night kills, there's 3 wolves to 5 villagers (and 1 wolf). Not difficult to sway the vote. The pack wins the next day.
Alternatively, Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special - who kills him next NIGHT. Boro is a "known innocent" in the Dead thread, at least until the special speaks out or we scry him. He can influence our vote and try to ensure his pack's survival from here. Not as effective but not necessarily doomed either.

I'm not saying this is what's happening or that it's even likely, just that it's possible and we shouldn't dismiss it, especially as in the "best" case scenario it makes sense as a means to secure victory. In any case, I'm not sure Nerwen has dreamed Boro.

WW CIX, otherwise apparently known as the game in which Agan didn't trust a single gifted reveal.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

I think it is not at all clear she "appears" to have dreamt of Boro. And all this planning from the first posts onwards for different scenarios where he'd need to bluff sounds more wolfy than not (if tp is in with the plan or just honestly happened to notice the FBI-thing is another question then).

Also, if someone had a "licence to kill"-role, why would s/he protest openly against Boro in the thread and reveal her/himself? Just attack him at Night if s/he (the special role) is on the side of the villagers.

[Lalaith]

The Dead thread is making me paranoid.

Me too. I thought it would be nice here. And now Nogs tells me there isn't even Sancerre in the afterlife. (Although I am touched that he remembered)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, if someone had a "licence to kill"-role, why would s/he protest openly against Boro in the thread and reveal her/himself? Just attack him at Night if s/he (the special role) is on the side of the villagers.

I went through the same thought process and wanted to say that here, but there would be a reason: if the "real assassin" just killed Boro, who would ever know that Boro wasn't just a real assassin killed by Wolves because he was dangerous to them?

All that said, all the concerns raised here are valid. By the way I am also getting paranoid with all you other talking-a-lot folks, except for basically Aganzir .

[the phantom]

Ha ha, Kath. Just votes for the person that happens to be listed first on Nerwen's list of the unknown.

[Nogrod]

With too many unknowns sitting here around the DL I'd suggest a bandwagon as well - and as we have no clue how the voting will go we'd probably need to pick just whom we feel the most trustworthy or least suspicious.

I'm not saying Nerwen couldn't pull out that kind of a master-class tactics, but giving us two wolves is pretty good show none else in the thread can boast of. And so they might even understand we gave it just as a reward for well done wolf-catching.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying Nerwen couldn't pull out that kind of a master-class tactics, but giving us two wolves is pretty good show none else in the thread can boast of. And so they might even understand we gave it just as a reward for well done wolf-catching.

Hopefully.

At least I would trust Nerwen to do with her vote something reasonable. (And if she is a Wolf, I daresay she deserves it...)

It might also be a point to make that we are not totally certain about Boro, as opposed to her (although I am not entirely sure if that is really the point we want to make... but it's not as conclusive point, anyway).

Are there any other good options? Can't think of any.

[Nogrod]

If there is no clear-cut situation where both the village votes more or less unanimously and there is a clearly established procedure what our vote means, then I say we just try to do what little we can. If there were already a pack of votes we could vote for someone who voted to lynch someone we especially suspect, but as even that is not the case I'm afraid we just have to give our vote as some kind of vote of confidence (or then not vote at all) as it looks like most of us will be having little to say as to who is lynched because we're fast alsleep (and too many wolves, 2-4, lurk there around the DL).

When I look at the list of names in the Living Thread I can't quite come up with anyone else than Nerwen as one we could vote for.

I'm open to well argued ideas though. For a while (trying to go to sleep in some more decentish time finally tonight).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If there is no clear-cut situation where both the village votes more or less unanimously and there is a clearly established procedure what our vote means, then I say we just try to do what little we can. If there were already a pack of votes we could vote for someone who voted to lynch someone we especially suspect, but as even that is not the case I'm afraid we just have to give our vote as some kind of vote of confidence (or then not vote at all) as it looks like most of us will be having little to say as to who is lynched because we're fast alsleep (and too many wolves, 2-4, lurk there around the DL).

When I look at the list of names in the Living Thread I can't quite come up with anyone else than Nerwen as one we could vote for.

I'm open to well argued ideas though. For a while (trying to go to sleep in some more decentish time finally tonight).

Third time's the charm, right?

I basically second this. If there is no brilliant revelation or amazing list coming up at the Living thread in some minutes, then I think I will really also just vote for Nerwen.

It would have made perhaps even more sense not to vote at all, but exactly, if we don't vote, Wolves could just wreak havoc.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Me too. I thought it would be nice here. And now Nogs tells me there isn't even Sancerre in the afterlife. (Although I am touched that he remembered)

And here for Lalaith!

[Aganzir]

I think I'll vote for Nerwen. (Also Greenie will probably get on here and vote in a little while, unless she forgets and goes to sleep instead.)

Sally is another option, being pretty much a known innocent, but I think voting Nerwen is so clear-cut that even if the village starts making a communication plan an hour before the deadline, they'll realise we weren't exactly conveying information with her empowerment.