Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But that's only seven dreams instead of eight. Which dream hasn't she mentioned yet? (Or did I miss it?)

Could be Boro - she said she'd been thinking he was the special role for a couple of days. Or could be what Lottie suggested.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point the real seer would be able to discredit them...

Unless they were convinced the real seer is dead. Still, lover and special role impersonation would be risky as the special seems to be an assassin and the lover could come back.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, seems the Living have nicely managed to dismantle any chances for us to communicate something to them, riight? Because no one has posted any nice list like Firefoot did yesterDay, and if they come up with the whole stuff really late (and under some voting fray we are not sure that we want to endorse), it's really difficult...

Yup... I'm trying to think of a way that's not cheating to let them know when we're going to bed and won't be there to see the communication plans, but unless somebody else can think of something, all I have is for the entire Dead thread to go quiet after Greenie, Legate and I leave (with or without voting) and that's not conducive (plus the wolves could mess it up - although the village would probably notice it's just Mac and Lottie posting ).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yup... I'm trying to think of a way that's not cheating to let them know when we're going to bed and won't be there to see the communication plans, but unless somebody else can think of something, all I have is for the entire Dead thread to go quiet after Greenie, Legate and I leave (with or without voting) and that's not conducive (plus the wolves could mess it up - although the village would probably notice it's just Mac and Lottie posting ).

Phantom! Where are your elaborate schemes when we need them, huh? Now's a chance for the captain of Gondor to show his quality... eh... nevermind that.

[Rikae]

We need to empower somebody, though.

Without a system, we can let them know that we trust Boro/Nerwen, at least (so they can assume that Mac and Lottie have outed themselves here).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

We need to empower somebody, though.

Without a system, we can let them know that we trust Boro/Nerwen, at least (so they can assume that Mac and Lottie have outed themselves here).

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also he tells us about all the hints he has been making but doesn''t mention the FBI-thing tp was so happy to champion as the hint he picked of him being the seer earlier on. Like I said earlier, in this game one doesn't trust anyone, let alone one would trust tp.

Exactly. I'm sure he has another trick or two up his sleeve in case he'd had to reveal as the ranger, hunter or lover.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

Ditto.

I'd rather empower Nerwen if we have to choose - she probably has the most information in the village and whether or not we do it, the wolves know it too. What are the chances they tried to kill sally instead of her last night? Not big, I'd say. I think she'll be back shortly before the deadline with her list of dreams, after which she'll be happy to join us here.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Not Boro if have another choice. Why would we signal the village he's alright when he so totally isn't?

I mean no, I don't know him to be a wolf, but he's one of the fishiest in the thread right now so let's not lend him any more credibility if we can avoid it?

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

[Rikae]

Actually, what am I thinking? We should scry Lalaith.

If she's truly an ordo, we know there are still two packs about (assuming we're right about Boro's role). That's worth knowing.

Also, she's who the living have asked us to scry, and with so many people here, we won't necessarily have the option to tell them about me (or Legate).
At least Lalaith's role, they should give us a way to communicate.

[Rikae]

"What am I thinking" referring to how I earlier said that we could just assume she was a wolf and scry someone else.

As for toDay's empower, I'm fine with Nerwen, too.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

Is he telling the truth 100% about his role and how it works? Probably not, and I wish we knew more. But I do trust that he is a gifted, and not a wolf (and we have more reason to trust him than the living do).

Well. I'm not sure about this. I've seen Borowolf fake reveal out of the blue just to flush out the real ranger when he felt they needed to take them out - poor Shasta was lynched as the "fake" ranger, and Boro the next day. I can't remember if it resulted in a wolf victory but either way it was effective.

At the moment, there's 12 people alive. Let's say Boro is a wolf and his pack is still in full strength (while they know the other pack is down to 1). In this situation, the special role is the biggest risk to them.

Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special. An innocent is lynched. After two (innocent) night kills, there's 3 wolves to 5 villagers (and 1 wolf). Not difficult to sway the vote. The pack wins the next day.
Alternatively, Boro fake reveals, trying to oust the special - who kills him next NIGHT. Boro is a "known innocent" in the Dead thread, at least until the special speaks out or we scry him. He can influence our vote and try to ensure his pack's survival from here. Not as effective but not necessarily doomed either.

I'm not saying this is what's happening or that it's even likely, just that it's possible and we shouldn't dismiss it, especially as in the "best" case scenario it makes sense as a means to secure victory. In any case, I'm not sure Nerwen has dreamed Boro.

WW CIX, otherwise apparently known as the game in which Agan didn't trust a single gifted reveal.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, it's unlikely Boro is a wolf. Nerwen appears to have dreamed of him, and even if he and Nerwen are both lying, the real seer is alive and most likely knows something about him, about Nerwen, or at the very least about one of the people she's claiming to know the role of. If he's not the real special role, there's also the real special role person to consider. The fact that no one is protesting speaks against Boro being a wolf.

I think it is not at all clear she "appears" to have dreamt of Boro. And all this planning from the first posts onwards for different scenarios where he'd need to bluff sounds more wolfy than not (if tp is in with the plan or just honestly happened to notice the FBI-thing is another question then).

Also, if someone had a "licence to kill"-role, why would s/he protest openly against Boro in the thread and reveal her/himself? Just attack him at Night if s/he (the special role) is on the side of the villagers.

[Lalaith]

The Dead thread is making me paranoid.

Me too. I thought it would be nice here. And now Nogs tells me there isn't even Sancerre in the afterlife. (Although I am touched that he remembered)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, if someone had a "licence to kill"-role, why would s/he protest openly against Boro in the thread and reveal her/himself? Just attack him at Night if s/he (the special role) is on the side of the villagers.

I went through the same thought process and wanted to say that here, but there would be a reason: if the "real assassin" just killed Boro, who would ever know that Boro wasn't just a real assassin killed by Wolves because he was dangerous to them?

All that said, all the concerns raised here are valid. By the way I am also getting paranoid with all you other talking-a-lot folks, except for basically Aganzir .

[Nogrod]

With too many unknowns sitting here around the DL I'd suggest a bandwagon as well - and as we have no clue how the voting will go we'd probably need to pick just whom we feel the most trustworthy or least suspicious.

I'm not saying Nerwen couldn't pull out that kind of a master-class tactics, but giving us two wolves is pretty good show none else in the thread can boast of. And so they might even understand we gave it just as a reward for well done wolf-catching.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I think Boro is overdoing it. (Maybe because he's the last of his pack left?)

Originally Posted by Boro

If the wolves are thinking about trying to put doubt to my claims, and get the village to lynch me as a wolf, that theory wouldn't hold, because there is no other explanation for Mac's death other than I assassinated him NIGHT 3 (and I left clues to my activities/thoughts, which I will get to in a moment).

If they want to try to kill me in the night (Ranger don't ever consider protecting me), I may have a another trick, or I may not, that I'm taking to the grave with me. Their choice.

So he should not be lynched and he should not be NightKilled? Nice.

Also he tells us about all the hints he has been making but doesn''t mention the FBI-thing tp was so happy to champion as the hint he picked of him being the seer earlier on. Like I said earlier, in this game one doesn't trust anyone, let alone one would trust tp.

Boro's explanations of his kills also sound a bit ad hoc to me. I mean he is kind of doing a systematic thing but then again he doesn't stick to it and all that jazz.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Unless they were convinced the real seer is dead. Still, lover and special role impersonation would be risky as the special seems to be an assassin and the lover could come back.

They might think that, but we know better, and at this point I can't imagine the real seer would allow it to continue.

[Rikae]

Simplest, least ambiguous way is to empower Boro or Nerwen. Boro, I'd say.
The living wolves most likely think Nerwen is the seer, but we don't need to be all like "hey! We ghosts think so too!"

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Simplest, least ambiguous way is to empower Boro or Nerwen. Boro, I'd say.
The living wolves most likely think Nerwen is the seer, but we don't need to be all like "hey! We ghosts think so too!"

Agreed about that. Still, it would really be much much better if we could pass on some other info. Sadly I can't think of a way to do it, not even by using Firefoot's list from yesterDay, since if I am not mistaken, I do not appear on it...