Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

According to the rules, the innocents can win just by surviving (as Sally now specified, five Days), providing there are more of them than Wolves and they have at least one of the Gifted still alive. Five Days, that's five Wolf-kills. If they don't kill the Gifteds (or at most one), and of course if nobody gets modfired (which could be the biggest concern), that leaves five people alive, out of which only two are Wolves. It is close, of course (and I guess that was the point so that the game remais balanced - btw good job, Sally, in any case), but given that we also have effectively two "Rangers", there is quite some chance that it might work out.

Hm. And those hit by the baddies' whisperings don't expire automatically, do they?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Basically what I am offering for discussion is: is it more dangerous for us to start lynching people (given that in this game, we do not have the traditional voting pattern to rely on and on top of everything, we do not know what was the dead person's role!!) and therefore the win-condition for us practically would become that we have to bag a Wolf (or preferrably both) to win; or, to not lynch people on our own and just let the WWs do the process of thinning the numbers of villagers; but if they don't manage to kill both Gifteds, they are guaranteed to lose.

Well, in an ordinary situation my feeling is that not voting/not lynching anyone plays into the hands of the wolves. But in this case, with a definite time period to shoot for that will ensure our survival, maybe not reporting anyone to the guards makes sense. At least for toDay I think I'd support that.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Otherwise: I suggest we really do cast votes for the person we want as Representative as well as some "unofficial" votes (for example just boldened) for who we would like to see lynched (and we can do it even if we later decide not to lynch anyone in the end. It will lose the point of course, but better to have it than not to have it, anyway. It is still something that tells something about people's thinking, even if they were lying).

Knowing who people thought should be reported though won't be as helpful, since we can't know the roles of the removed.

[Loslote]

Since what we suffer from most of all is a lack of information, I think we should all explicitly state our intentions in the case that we are elected representative. Maybe not names, necessarily, although I do think a name would be nice later in the day when we are close to voting, but we should spell out our general philosophies and strategies early in the Day so that we have a framework to build on later.

For example, I would be opposed to letting a "lynch" opportunity slip away, simply because we have no way of knowing if the Gifteds have died, and I don't want to wake up on the last Day to a surprise defeat when it turns out the Black Death has claimed them after all. We have two gifteds, right (on mobile, can't check), and... eight innocents? And the wolves are going to kill five of us? That's more than half the village, and way too many shots at a Gifted for how small we are for my comfort. I don't have time to do the statistics, but that doesn't seem like good odds to me.

So who would I exile from the Ward were I elected representative? With nothing else to go on this early, I would choose the person most obviously hinting that they were drowning in despair after having heard whispers in the night, because if you were a wolf, it would be a great idea to try to make the herbalist heal you instead of your victim.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate

They would. But the point of this was to minimalise the damage. According to the rules, the innocents can win just by surviving (as Sally now specified, five Days), providing there are more of them than Wolves and they have at least one of the Gifted still alive. Five Days, that's five Wolf-kills. If they don't kill the Gifteds (or at most one), and of course if nobody gets modfired (which could be the biggest concern), that leaves five people alive, out of which only two are Wolves. It is close, of course (and I guess that was the point so that the game remais balanced - btw good job, Sally, in any case), but given that we also have effectively two "Rangers", there is quite some chance that it might work out.

Just one problem- the admin thread says there's three conspirators, not two.

Edit:x'd with Lottie.

[Nerwen]

Personally, I think we should lynch Kuru and the terrible pun he rode in on.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Personally, I think we should lynch Kuru and the terrible pun he rode in on.

I thank'ee kindly, ma'am!

This will probably be a series of short serious posts since I am at work and can't stay on the board for extended periods.

I think we need to establish facts so the Ward is working from the same foundation. Some of this may seem obvious, but I think it should be stated for clarity.

1) We can assume that people who are Black Breathed are innocent. It would be one twisted group of...let's call them Wolves for the sake of brevity...who would do in one of their own in a game with this level of anonymity. Not to say it is utterly impossible, but we should assume they would not do this at the beginning.

2) We cannot trust the intentions of the representative! This is a vital point to establish. The Ward must make clear to the representative the appropriate target selection. The only way to hold the representative accountable is if the target is clear and then punish them if they deviate from the Ward's will.

3) While I am tentatively inclined to be supportive of Legate's suggestion of not lynching somebody toDAY...I believe the numbers dictate that we will have to eventually. We can't win by just passing the lynch each time.

I would like to run the numbers now, but I have a meeting. Hopefully we can have some people independently run the numbers to verify our possible scenarios.

I will do it myself when I have a chance.

4) This game would be more awesome with a Dead Thread! All games should have Dead Threads now!

[Lalaith]

I don't even get the pun. I'm so embarrassed. Maybe just lynch me for sheer slow-wittedness.

[Inziladun]

Ok, so the rules state:

The conspirators may only converse during Night phases. Each Night, they choose one person (by sending me a PM), to whom they whisper dark thoughts. Once demoralized by the conspirators, a patient lives through the Day, but if not treated, succumbs to their despair during the next Night and dies the following Dawn. (Example: Sally is targeted Night 2. I am notified of this by PM at the start of Day 3, and am dead at the start of Day 4.)

If the Conspirators' target isn't blocked by Bard or healed by the herbalist, xe is gone Day 2 after they are afflicted, right? So it would take six Days to take out three villagers?

Ten players, three Conspiarators. If no one is submitted to the guards for removal, is it possible to just wait things out?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ok, so the rules state:



If the Conspirators' target isn't blocked by Bard or healed by the herbalist, xe is gone Day 2 after they are afflicted, right? So it would take six Days to take out three villagers?

Ten players, three Conspiarators. If no one is submitted to the guards for removal, is it possible to just wait things out?

We lose someone every Day starting on Day 2, and I'm pretty sure we only win if we survive with a Gifted, which makes it a much more risky strategy to try to wait out the plague. It's not just numbers vs numbers - we need to give our Gifteds the best possible chance of survival if we want to win.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

We lose someone every Day starting on Day 2, and I'm pretty sure we only win if we survive with a Gifted, which makes it a much more risky strategy to try to wait out the plague. It's not just numbers vs numbers - we need to give our Gifteds the best possible chance of survival if we want to win.

But does calling the guards not endanger the Gifteds?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Since what we suffer from most of all is a lack of information, I think we should all explicitly state our intentions in the case that we are elected representative. Maybe not names, necessarily, although I do think a name would be nice later in the day when we are close to voting, but we should spell out our general philosophies and strategies early in the Day so that we have a framework to build on later.

Good one. Even though I believe we should go a step further and actually say who we would vote for if we were elected the Representative.

My intentions for Day 1 as it is: I am not 100% sure about that, but I would consider not sending a lynch the first Day at all. I would, however, also support a public opinion (unless by some inexplicable chain of events it was absolutely contrary to all human logic in my opinion, but in that case I don't assume people would choose me in the first place).

MORE IMPORTANTLY: I believe we should elect someone we can trust. Basically the most innocent. If we get the opinions from everyone (preferably early enough before DL!), then the vote can also be based on that.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Just one problem- the admin thread says there's three conspirators, not two.

Ah, right. That makes it a slightly worse theory, then. Well, the question stands anyway. But that puts us much more back towards a "normal" game-style. We just have slightly better chances thanks to effectively having something like two Rangers, and slightly worse by having no info whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

1) We can assume that people who are Black Breathed are innocent. It would be one twisted group of...let's call them Wolves for the sake of brevity...who would do in one of their own in a game with this level of anonymity. Not to say it is utterly impossible, but we should assume they would not do this at the beginning.

The problem is that if I am not mistaken, nobody is supposed to say that aloud. They can only hint. (With which I would suggest that all innocents refrain from making any comments regarding their health unless they really are sick. In fact, if we already have one ill person here, maybe too late for toDay.)

Originally Posted by Kuru

2) We cannot trust the intentions of the representative! This is a vital point to establish. The Ward must make clear to the representative the appropriate target selection. The only way to hold the representative accountable is if the target is clear and then punish them if they deviate from the Ward's will.

That makes perfect sense.

Originally Posted by Kuru

3) While I am tentatively inclined to be supportive of Legate's suggestion of not lynching somebody toDAY...I believe the numbers dictate that we will have to eventually. We can't win by just passing the lynch each time.

After correcting my numbers, I agree. But we'll see what exactly we do.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil and Boro

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The problem is that if I am not mistaken, nobody is supposed to say that aloud. They can only hint. (With which I would suggest that all innocents refrain from making any comments regarding their health unless they really are sick. In fact, if we already have one ill person here, maybe too late for toDay.)

Yes, that is correct.

My intention was to state that we could look at their posts after they are definitively gone and feel fairly confident of their innocence.

The utility of this will have to be left for us to determine later.

[Kuruharan]

And when I say "utility" I mean that since we are all operating in the dark there is no guarantee that the innocents were speculating on good information.

But we must work with what we have.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I don't even get the pun. I'm so embarrassed. Maybe just lynch me for sheer slow-wittedness.

Don't feel bad. The joke was quite stupid.

[Loslote]

If I did my very quick math right, the probability that we lose both Gifteds is about 30%. I would estimate higher, because it isn't just a shot in the dark. All of us here know how to hunt Godteds, and that will be priority number one for the wolves. Not the best odds, in my opinion, but not insurmountable. I still don't like the plan, though. I think it leaves too much up to the wolves.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well the biggest problem I see in it is that even if the whole village agrees not to lynch anyone ever, then if a Wolf manages to infiltrate the Rep even once (for example the Day before the last), they would win. (Or would they? Anyway, you get the point - it basically depends on everyone keeping that strategy all the time. We'd have to keep in line, and not to chicken out at some wrong moment just because we lose a nerve.)

As a counter-argument, I still trust the Gifteds we have would be able to help as well. The WWs have to either try to kill them, or work around them so that they don't waste a kill, etc... so that balances out the lack of knowledge on the innocents' part.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil