Werewolf CXI - The Black Breath Ward

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, last post of Lal's also further strenghtens my belief that her generally noncommital attitude (neither making a strong case for anyone, yet repeatedly chiming in with "...oh, and btw this person looks suspicious, too") seems Wolfy.

But, for now anyway:

++Loslote for Rep

And I think I would be for lynching either Shasta or Lalaith. Truth be told, I started thinking differently about Shasta mostly in light of his exchange with Kuru, plus giving a bit more credit to the possibility that he might have been together with theoretical Zilwolf. I am just hoping we are on the right track here.

EDIT: x-ed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I would, therefore, be probably okay with lynching Shasta toDay. What just worries me is that there seems to be such a nice consensus (meaning also Lommy now). In other words, yes, I would be much happier if the only people who agreed on it were the "known innocents", because everything else might mean a Wolf merrily contributing to lynching somebody else. But who knows.

That's the thing that bugs me too. It seems almost too easy.

Then again, most other things seem too complicated.

Gah. I'd almost be up for lynching Boro toDay, but I suppose I'm in the minority.


edit: xed with Legatolas

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That's the thing that bugs me too. It seems almost too easy.

Then again, most other things seem too complicated.

My theory is that the wolves felt pressed and decided they had to put themselves out there toDAY and make an open effort for victory.

[Loslote]

Adieu, all - I think the Herbalist has nary an herb left, and the light grows dim in my eyes...but I will take one last wolf with me ere I go!

(Hopefully, anyway. Good hunting. )

[satansaloser2005]

The Day is now closed. Hush. That's it. Go to sleep. Good night....

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

My theory is that the wolves felt pressed and decided they had to put themselves out there toDAY and make an open effort for victory.

What do you mean? How does that explain nobody defending Shasta?

Anyway, I have to wake up in 6h (oopsie), so for the record, my preferred lynch would be

Boro > Shasta > Lalaith > Legate > Kuru > Lottie

I'm feeling quite okay toDay, whoever we end up lynching. Maybe it's false optimism, but I'm thinking we bagged a wolf yesterDay when we lynched Inzil, and we've still had very few Black Breath kills and I'm optimistic our gifted can still avert another kill or two.


edit: xed with Lottie and THE MODDESS

IT'S DEADLINE NOW ALREADY??? So sorry mods bods, I will delete my post if you ask! I was 99% sure the DL was 3 not 2 am Finnish time. Did it move?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Erm, was it the DL? Okay, it apparently was. Ugh, weird. I guess Americans don't have daylight savings time? (The clock got changed here last Saturday.) Well, here I thought we still have an hour. Fair enough. I didn't want to say anything more, just wanted to say "++Shasta" if it wasn't clear. (I was brushing my teeth for a couple of minutes thinking there was no rush, I see there was. Hope it doesn't matter!)

[satansaloser2005]

Deep in the night, Shasta awoke from his troubled sleep. His nightmares had been terrible, but likely no worse than anyone else in the Ward. Tonight, however, he could not rest, haunted by the memory of his lost friends, with one fellow patient in particular.

Throwing on his coat and shoes, he set out into the streets, letting his feet take him wherever they happened to go. Some time later, he found himself standing in front of the morgue. It was unsurprisingly dark, and he looked around, finding the surrounding area to be unoccupied. He drew a thin piece of metal from his pocket and jammed it into the gate lock. His feet padded along the entry walkway and toward the door, making no sound neither with the gate latch nor the front door of the morgue."I was hoping this would come in handy, but not like this."

The interior was cold and somewhat damp, and it smelled of dust and decay. Following the hallways, he reached the room where the Breath victims were kept. The door was locked, as expected. He swore as his pick broke off inside the hole, but at least it had done its job: the door creaked open to reveal an empty foyer and a stairway descending to the lower floor.

Regretting his present course of action with every step, he approached one of the bodies. Lifting the sheet from the corpse's face revealed it to be someone he didn't know, likely one of the first to be admitted to the Ward. With time and a strong stomach, he came across the familiar face he longed to see one more time.

"You should have listened," he told Nerwen's lifeless body. "We should have left the city before this started. I didn't think you would- I didn't want this to happen."

Overcome by emotion and the ever-present urge to burst into song, he choked back tears, grasping Nerwen's cold hand in his own.

There's a world, there's a world I know
A place we can go where the pain will go away
There's a world where the sun shines each day
There's a world, there's a world out there
I'll show you just where
And in time I know you'll see
There's a world where we can be free-

"Come with me," interjected a deep voice.

Shasta whirled around just in time to be assaulted by two guards. He tried to protest, but he was bound, blindfolded, and gagged in seconds. The last thing he saw was the hand of his queen hanging limply from the table on which he left her.

~~~~~~~~

The next morning, the Ward discovered Shasta's house empty, the only remaining possessions a wilting rose and a small book of poetry.

"It still smells sweet," Lottie noted softly, stroking the petals. "What will happen to it now?"

"I'm not sure," Sally admitted with a shrug, but then her shoulders slumped. "More importantly, we still have one more day. What will happen to us?"

The only response Sally received was an eery chorus of, "I don't know."



It is now Day 5.


Patients
Kuru
Lottie
Lalaith
Lommy
Legate
Boro

The Morgue
Phantom (for posterity)
McCaber
Nerwen
Dun
Shasta

[Loslote]

I'm alive?!?!? Thanks, Herbalist!

Also, hopefully the bit where Shasta had wanted to leave with Nerwen before this started suggests that he's a wolf? *crossing fingers*

I *think* we're in a pretty good spot toDay. I read both of the narrations as suggesting a successful wolf kill, and clearly the Herbalist at least is still alive, if they were able to save me last Night. I haven't run the numbers, but might we be back in a scenario where a no-lynch would be a good idea toDay? Six people are left. We are probably down at least one wolf between Zil and Shasta, so they won't outnumber us if all they have is one last Night-kill, and so few of us have actually died, I wouldn't be surprised if both of our Gifteds are still around. Of course, we would be relying on a) the wolves not to have targeted whoever the Herbalist is last Night, b) the Bard still being alive and/or c) at least one wolf is dead, but I think the odds are pretty good.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I happened to be awake for the DL toNight, but I am heading to sleep in a second. I can just as well post when I am here, however.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, hopefully the bit where Shasta had wanted to leave with Nerwen before this started suggests that he's a wolf? *crossing fingers*.

Well, I am not sure if I read it that way. My first impression of it was rather negative. Like, a wilting rose and a book of poetry? Doesn't it look like either Herbalist (plant) or Bard (poetry)? But then again of course, given that there were both of them, it makes it somewhat inconclusive. Still.

I would however think a no-lynch is not a good option for us anymore, since we started it once. It is all quite hazy at this point, the numbers can be anything, but generally, we still have at least one Wolf (even if both the lynched ones were Wolves, which I am not much convinced about). I think lynching would be the best option. Whom do people think the most likely to be Wolf (ev. Wolves, if the two lynched ones were innocent)?

EDIT: anyway, going to sleep now, but will be around in some hours after I sleep, so

[Kuruharan]

Well, this is not the scenario I expected to confront toDAY, it is much, much better!

Yay! Lottie is still with us!

Yay! The Herbalist had enough juice for one more healing!

And Yay! The Herbalist is still with us!

So...anybody feeling ill?

I am pretty confident that we are down at least one wolf...and honestly I think we are down two.

I would, for that reason, tentatively suggest that it might be possible for us to win with a no lynch toDAY. I will have to run the numbers tomorrow morning (in real time for me) because I'm too tired right now.

However, all that being said, I had a post more or less ready to go for right now so I'm going to put up a version modified for our new, much brighter, circumstances...

The soundtrack to be listened to while reading the rest of this...which I think is highly appropriate in just about every particular...except for maybe one or two details...

The Lalaith Case

So I went back and looked at her posts for the last two DAYS...and I strongly encourage everyone to check the links and go back and re-read the posts for themselves.

DAY THREE

Post 180 - In this post she suggests that McCaber was a wolf - and then suggests that this might point toward Legate being a wolf.

Then she says that I might be a wolf and was gambling that Boro would not turn up to disprove me. This particular notion, or some version of it kept coming up a few times among certain people.

Post 181 - She again spends this post speculating various ways that Legate or I could be guilty.

Post 200 - Says that Boro not claiming to have the Black Breath that DAY makes her feel better about me - *does not believe me to be a wolf anymore.* <- Please make special note of the underlined bit, because there is a sudden change coming DAY FOUR that happens for no stated reason.

DAY FOUR

Post 227 - Starts off the post by saying that I am probably innocent...and then spends most of the post laying out scenarios where I could be a wolf. Why this suspicion of somebody she has said multiple times she believes is probably innocent? At the very least that is not particularly helpful to the Ward. She should branch out her suspects a little.

Post 251 - Ahh...she branches out her suspects...back to Legate...and me again.

Post 257 - Asks Lottie to suspect Legate and myself...even though in Post 200 and Post 227 she said that she thought I was probably innocent.

Post 266 - Votes and again asks Lottie to suspect the likely innocents...or confirmed innocent in my case since I claimed I had the Black Breath, nobody counter-claimed, and I lived...and nobody unexpectedly succumbed to the Black Breath that NIGHT.

Post 278 - Said Boro's being strange. Fair point, well made.

The main thing I would like to highlight at the moment is that she is pretty relentlessly suspecting Legate and myself for little other reason than we are widely seen as innocent and not basing her suspicion on anything Legate or I have actually done during the game.

And let's just ignore for the moment the little detail that I'm one of two people playing who are as close a thing to a confirmed innocent as it is possible to have in this game and that was established on DAY FOUR.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What do you mean? How does that explain nobody defending Shasta?

A couple of ways.

1) It seems to me that Lalaith was implicitly supporting him.

2) There may have only been (and I hope there was) only one other wolf in the game left to support him.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

So...anybody feeling ill?

Maybe the Bard made a save last Night. You and Legate have both posted without any despair claims, and I don't think the wolves would have gone for someone else, who might still draw suspicion away from them, so it was probably down to the two of you for who was targeted - and you are closer to a known innocent, so if they'd targeted you, they would have still been able to go after Legate. I'm betting the Bard saved one of the two of you last Night.

That being said, I could be wrong. This is highly speculative!

The main thing I would like to highlight at the moment is that she is pretty relentlessly suspecting Legate and myself for little other reason than we are widely seen as innocent and not basing her suspicion on anything Legate or I have actually done during the game.

I agree, but I also wonder if both of the wolves would have taken this strategy, or if they might've split their forces so that even if targeting you and Legate blew up in Shasta's face (which it did), his packmate would have avoided the crossfire.

Of course, Lalaith did try to stay out of the blow up yesterday between the two of you, so maybe that is what she was trying to do.

[Kuruharan]

Also,

++Lottie for Rep Now and Forever!!!!!!

[Loslote]

You can take this one if everyone else is down with it...I've been hogging the lynches.

++Kuru

[Kuruharan]

But...you're awesome. And we might mess up the juju.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

But...you're awesome. And we might mess up the juju.

Well, for the juju, then.

[Boromir88]

I would think we could have a no lynch today and be alright. Worst case scenario is 3-3, but that would mean the conspirators have to be Lalaith, Legate, and Lommy, which I'm not seeing as the 3 villains. Shasta, or Inzil (if not both) were a conspirator. If wrong and it's 3-3 we're pretty much dead already, because I have no doubt they could use their advantage now and easily offer me up as the lynch.

I'm thinking it's 4-2, best case scenario is 5-1. In which case, we still have the herbalist, and possibly the bard (I'm not sick, but I'm sure the only reason I haven't been targeted is to keep as lynch fodder).

Even if Legate, Lalaith, or Lommy come out to say they're afflicted with the black breath. Sorry only going to vote Lottie or Kuru for rep. It may be lazy or boring to go with a no lynch and hold on for reinforcements, but if that's now an achievable path to victory, let's do it. There's no shame or cheapness about it, we still had to make key choices to get into this position. So, thank you Lottie and everyone for being wise and level-headed throughout these nightmares.

(Sorry for not bolding anyone's names, this was all typed from my phone). I'll be back at some point to vote for a rep and see what else has happened

[Boromir88]

And if I had to choose in order if most-wolfy to least:

Lalaith - Kuru laid out a solid argument. If there is decided to be a lynch today, she'd be the only one I would want the rep to go for.

Legate and Lommy I'm putting together. It's what gets me thinking there's still 2, but based purely on personal reasons. I've made myself a very easy lynch fodder, and basically the only one the conspirators have to go after right now. So, i know both of them are capable of using that to distract from Lalaith, if one of them was a fellow conspirator. But I wouldn't want either of them lynched just based on that reason alone, especially if we have the ability now to win without a lynch today.

Kuru- if he's a wolf, we're dead already and I tip my cap
To an excellent and brilliantly executed game plan.

[Kuruharan]

Numbers Post.

I'm slightly modifying the format...and this post will be a bit lengthy, but the content is pretty straightforward. I wish it was easier to set up charts and tables on the forum.

Worst Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil

DAY FIVE
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta

DAY SIX
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta
Player 5

I just put both gifteds in there for convenience sake. On the No-Lynch choice in the worst case scenario we would be dependent on a correct bard save/herbalist heal (assuming the herbalist has any juice left). This would be a pretty chancy prospect.

But, I don't for a minute think this is actually the scenario we are facing. And if it is I take my hat off to the wolves.

Medium Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil

DAY FIVE
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta (Baddie 8)

DAY SIX
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil
Shasta (Baddie 8)
Player 4

The wolves already cannot win if we are in this case, they can't get enough kills. A No-Lynch would be viable.

Best Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save
DAY ONE
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY TWO
McCaber
Nerwen
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10

DAY THREE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 8
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen

DAY FOUR
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 9
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)

DAY FIVE
Player 3
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
Shasta (Baddie 9)

DAY SIX
Player 4
Player 5
Bard Player
Herbalist Player
Baddie 10
Dead
McCaber
Nerwen
Inzil (Baddie 8)
Shasta (Baddie 9)
Player 3

Also here the wolves are doomed and cannot win regardless of what they do.

My personal belief is we have the best case scenario, but it is possible that we are on medium. There isn't much we can do if we are on worst. We would have to roll the dice on a lynch and hope for the best. But I don't believe we are on the worst case. Nothing about the way this game has unfolded leads me to believe we are facing the worst case scenario right now.

All that being said, I invite everyone to pick apart my numbers and analysis to make sure it is sound. As I said before, never trust me with counting.

While I think we are safe to Not Lynch, I kind of would like to lynch Lalaith. I think the case against her is compelling and I'd like to take a stab at winning this thing with a clean sweep.

But I am not wedded to that if the rest of the Ward doesn't think it advisable.

Xed with 2 Boro's

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am going to say it now in case there is still a reason for it to be relevant in making the numbers, which it probably is. At least as far as the numbers are concerned. If the numbers are not concerned, then we have lost anyway.

I actually am afraid the Bard did not manage to make the save last Night, and that is because woe is me.

That is why I believe the only way we can go out of here is that we try to make a lynch toDay. Try to lynch a Wolf.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just in case somebody is skimming through the thread and not paying proper attention to everything, I will repeat this in order to make it visible.

WOE IS ME. (Woe is me, woe is you... - ok, maybe not the most thematically appropriate, but I have it now stuck in my head with the wrong lyrics)

And I suggest a lynch toDay.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Just in case somebody is skimming through the thread and not paying proper attention to everything, I will repeat this in order to make it visible.

WOE IS ME. (Woe is me, woe is you... - ok, maybe not the most thematically appropriate, but I have it now stuck in my head with the wrong lyrics)

And I suggest a lynch toDay.

Alas.

But there is a silver lining...it removes any further possible suspicions that you are a wolf.

Well, I guess somebody could counter-claim, but I don't think there are any players left in the game who could do so credibly.

[Loslote]

Nooooo...I was so hopeful! Now that you've been aflicted, I think we are back to maybe needing to lynch toDay - and I agree that Lalaith seems like the obvious target. Lommy seems more on the innocent side to me, and I don't have a great read on Boro, but I also don't have any particular reasons to suspect him, which means that Lalaith - who I've had reasons to suspect for a while now - would be my pick for Last Lynch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, the question is what to try to do now. Or rather, whom...

Taking into account every single possibility.

Lalaith would be the simplest option, she was on the table yesterDay besides Shasta. If we are following this through, we may just as well follow it through.

Boro... after his last post... I am not sure, I believe his death won't accomplish anything.

Lommy... I am not sure. If she is a Wolf, I don't think she is a lone one. There would be at least two of them. Possibly three. And in that way, I would prioritise someone else over her.

For the sake of completion, since I said I will mention every single possibility, I think we can't very well steer away from the track of not lynching Lottie or Kuru; that path has been closed to us long time ago. At the latest moment probably sometime yesterDay. It's a game where nobody knows anything, and you just have to close your eyes and make a choice. We did.

[Boromir88]

Aye it appears to be as sure as is possible in a situation like this, we have to make a lynch today.

I can't think of a scenario where LegateWolf would benefit from a false black breath claim, at this time. Lalaith wouldn't be able to convince me if she disputes it.

Now the only question is I need either Kuru or Lottie to answer for me, which one wants to be the rep? You each voted for the other. Sorry to place this burden on you again, but you haven't steered wrong yet. Who knows how many conspirators got lynched, but with your democratically elected power, you haven't told us you would do one thing and went and done the opposite.

++Lottie for rep

I would say

++Lalaith

I may be back again within the next few hours, but I won't be around for the deadline today. *Looks for the light on the 6th day.* Hoping I live to see it.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

For the sake of completion, since I said I will mention every single possibility, I think we can't very well steer away from the track of not lynching Lottie or Kuru; that path has been closed to us long time ago. At the latest moment probably sometime yesterDay. It's a game where nobody knows anything, and you just have to close your eyes and make a choice. We did.

The terror I engender is profound.

But seriously, for everyone's benefit, set your minds at rest about Lottie and myself. From a game mechanic standpoint she and I cannot be guilty. Both she and I have claimed the Black Breath (her twice). Nobody actually counter-claimed any DAY we've been hit. We've survived each time and most critically of all, nobody unexpectedly died during the NIGHTS.

Lottie and I cannot be guilty.

Moving on to other matters, if my numbers above are correct, even if Legate succumbs to the Black Breath during the NIGHT () we will still win with an innocent to spare if there are anything fewer than three wolves left...and that is assuming no lynch.

The only way we are in trouble at this point is if there *are* three wolves left, and at this point that pack would have to be Boro, Lommy, and Lalaith.

While that is possible (but unlikely in my estimation) all we have to do is kill one of them, which I'm pretty sure we will do.

So, Legate...hurry up and vote Lottie as Rep.

Xed with Boro - I would have answered his question in time to help him if only I'd posted sooner.

[Kuruharan]

Also, take note that with his vote Boro just pretty much confirmed that at least one wolf is down.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The only way we are in trouble at this point is if there *are* three wolves left, and at this point that pack would have to be Boro, Lommy, and Lalaith.

While that is possible (but unlikely in my estimation) all we have to do is kill one of them, which I'm pretty sure we will do.

I agree with your analysis, and I think we're in great shape going into the last Morning. Our last task to lynch Lalaith, and I think we'll have done it. Also,

++Legate for MVP

for his no-lynch plan the first two Days, which I really think played a huge part in getting us here.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Legate for MVP

As outstandingly well (and with a great deal of intestinal fortitude as well) as Legate has played, if some of my theories are correct, there just might be somebody here who has played even better than he has.

And I definitely don't mean me.

Of course, if my theories are wrong...then holy cow, Legate would have ascended to phantomic and Nerwenian levels of Werewolf Awesomehood...as if he wasn't there already.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with your analysis, and I think we're in great shape going into the last Morning. Our last task to lynch Lalaith, and I think we'll have done it. Also,

++Legate for MVP

for his no-lynch plan the first two Days, which I really think played a huge part in getting us here.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

As outstandingly well (and with a great deal of intestinal fortitude as well) as Legate has played, if some of my theories are correct, there just might be somebody here who has played even better than he has.

And I definitely don't mean me.

Of course, if my theories are wrong...then holy cow, Legate would have ascended to phantomic and Nerwenian levels of Werewolf Awesomehood...as if he wasn't there already.

Alas, I am not a Wolf, because I agree, it would have been awesome. I would have felt extremely proud and even with the utmost humility I would still be undeniably entitled to do so. But also you have no idea how much I wish you were Wolves right now. I mean, of course I don't want you to be Wolves, but I think I don't deserve half the praise. I think I can say already now (but we can talk about it more after the game) that I feel like I took over lots of the crucial points of the game (like the no-lynch plan in the beginning and so on) and whether it was for good or bad, I am responsible for where it headed; but I am not sure if it wasn't a bit "despotic" from me. In this game, we are all fumbling in the dark more so than usual, so it is difficult to make learned decisions. But we shall see once this game ends what ends did everything serve.

I am very, very, very curious, once this game ends, to learn everybody's roles. Shasta's. Zil's. (McCaber's...)

For now, I think now voting Lottie as rep is indeed the only logical way to go, because after Boro's vote, it's the way to get a decent majority.

But I'll be around and try to think about the lynch-candidates a bit and see if anybody else still posts. (Lommy might only later, from what I know in RL about her schedule, but that's a detail.)

[Kuruharan]

It has gone all quiet.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

It has gone all quiet.

I'm here finally! Reading and commenting soon.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Whom do people think the most likely to be Wolf (ev. Wolves, if the two lynched ones were innocent)?

I still think Inzil-Shasta-Boro would be the most likely combination, but it's not definitely the only option.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I would, for that reason, tentatively suggest that it might be possible for us to win with a no lynch toDAY. I will have to run the numbers tomorrow morning (in real time for me) because I'm too tired right now.

No no no no, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make any sense. In fact, it makes me feel a bit iffy about you. It would be pretty nice for the wolves not to get one of them killed but surely we can afford to lose one of hour own if we mislynch? Okay, waiting for the eventual kurumaths post to confirm this...

Originally Posted by Kuru

A couple of ways.

1) It seems to me that Lalaith was implicitly supporting him.

2) There may have only been (and I hope there was) only one other wolf in the game left to support him.

That makes sense to me. Like, I'm not convinced (I still think Lalaith looks fairly innocent), but it's a reasonable hypothesis.

Legate, why did you wait so long to say you had the Black Breath? If you wanted to make me last minute alarmed about you after such an honest-seeming performance, it was exactly that.

Lottie for rep sounds like the sensible way to go. I mean, she's a veteran of the office by now.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

No no no no, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make any sense. In fact, it makes me feel a bit iffy about you. It would be pretty nice for the wolves not to get one of them killed but surely we can afford to lose one of hour own if we mislynch? Okay, waiting for the eventual kurumaths post to confirm this...

I anticipated you by several hours.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Legate, why did you wait so long to say you had the Black Breath? If you wanted to make me last minute alarmed about you after such an honest-seeming performance, it was exactly that.

Sorry about that. Well, the main reason was that I was hoping to see reactions to the Night events before announcing it. But overall, there is not very much rational planning behind it - it was, most of all, the wish to make the WWs freak out at least for a moment by making them think that their Nightly attack was prevented by the Bard. Sort of a payback from my part for targeting me. Although, to be absolutely honest, I was 99,9% sure they would target me. Given that Lottie was supposed to die that Night and Kuru was the second logical choice, which made him likely to be protected by the Bard, it was basically clear that they were going to target me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I anticipated you by several hours.

Oh, I actually saw that, but it didn't really help me I'm afraid. So basically we're probably winning and a lynch will only change the situation if all the three wolves are actually alive, only there's a theoretical chance in that case also that we lynch an innocent and they outnumber us toMorrow? Like, a lynch doesn't matter either way unless there's still three of them, in which case we're in dire straits indeed??

Which makes me think we SHOULD indeed do a lynch toDay, and I seriously think it should be Boro. I would hate to lose just because he and his ten posts slipped under everybody's radar (sorry dear, no hard feelings ).

Originally Posted by Legate

Sorry about that. Well, the main reason was that I was hoping to see reactions to the Night events before announcing it. But overall, there is not very much rational planning behind it - it was, most of all, the wish to make the WWs freak out at least for a moment by making them think that their Nightly attack was prevented by the Bard. Sort of a payback from my part for targeting me. Although, to be absolutely honest, I was 99,9% sure they would target me. Given that Lottie was supposed to die that Night and Kuru was the second logical choice, which made him likely to be protected by the Bard, it was basically clear that they were going to target me.

Well, it still sounded like a wolf posting at 2am then waking up the next morning and being like "hey there's no claim about last Night I could still claim Black Breath yeehaw" - but I admit it's hard to see what you would gain by that, given that most of the village trusts you anyway. It just really rubbed me the wrong way.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which makes me think we SHOULD indeed do a lynch toDay, and I seriously think it should be Boro. I would hate to lose just because he and his ten posts slipped under everybody's radar (sorry dear, no hard feelings ).

I'm pretty confident that if Boro meant mischief he would not have voted Lottie for Rep. A wolf really couldn't afford that today.

++Lalaith for lynching.

Anybody else interpret her silence toDAY as a confession? Maybe not fair...but there you are.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I'm pretty confident that if Boro meant mischief he would not have voted Lottie for Rep. A wolf really couldn't afford that today.

Good point - not if there were three of them, then they'd gang up and elect one of their own. If there was only two or one, then I don't see why they wouldn't vote Lottie. But basically that confirms that Boro can't be a member of a pack of three wolves so he's not a lethal threat in any case?

Hmmmmm...

I still maintain he's a likelier wolf than Lalaith, and also because I take after my father I would really rather lynch a possible quiet wolf than a resonably active one if it doesn't make any difference to our odds of winning the game.

But if no one agrees with me I don't know what's the worst we can do with lynching Lalaith toDay - lynching a gifted (but that's the same for Boro I suppose)?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So basically we're probably winning and a lynch will only change the situation if all the three wolves are actually alive, only there's a theoretical chance in that case also that we lynch an innocent and they outnumber us toMorrow? Like, a lynch doesn't matter either way unless there's still three of them, in which case we're in dire straits indeed??

Which makes me think we SHOULD indeed do a lynch toDay, and I seriously think it should be Boro. I would hate to lose just because he and his ten posts slipped under everybody's radar (sorry dear, no hard feelings ).

I say, let's lynch somebody. I am despairing beyond imagination and therefore probably seeing everything painted in the blackest way possible, but I am still hoping that we somehow have chance of lynching one Wolf and making the difference by that. I said that all already in my posts above... thinking there were too few youtube links on this thread. There's no way I'm gonna let go.

It really all comes down to what Zil (and McCaber) and Shasta were. Especially if I misjudged Shasta and he was not a Wolf - if it is so and you are reading this, Shasta, I am truly, deeply sorry.

In any case, because the DL is fairly close, I guess now no reason to prolong this---

++Loslote for Rep

And who for the lynch then? I said above, I am not sure if Boro is the right choice. Lalaith would be just as good for me. But I will let the village decide. For once.

[Lalaith]

Hello everyone. Sorry to rush in just before deadline like this [RL] v bad day at work [/RL]
Well it's excellent news about Lotties miraculous survival but not such good news if the plan is to lynch me - it won't help at all, I assure you.
Given my last minute arrival I've not had time to do much than a skim read of the thread but I would say that Boro stands out as acting really weird yesterDay and is still acting pretty weird toDay. He would be the one I would vote for if I were rep.
Obviously ++ Lottie and ++Boro to lynch.