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11-03-2016, 08:54 PM
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#1 |
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Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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But...you're awesome. And we might mess up the juju.
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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11-03-2016, 08:57 PM
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#2 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Quote:
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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11-04-2016, 09:16 AM
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#3 |
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Laconic Loreman
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 7,521
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I would think we could have a no lynch today and be alright. Worst case scenario is 3-3, but that would mean the conspirators have to be Lalaith, Legate, and Lommy, which I'm not seeing as the 3 villains. Shasta, or Inzil (if not both) were a conspirator. If wrong and it's 3-3 we're pretty much dead already, because I have no doubt they could use their advantage now and easily offer me up as the lynch.
I'm thinking it's 4-2, best case scenario is 5-1. In which case, we still have the herbalist, and possibly the bard (I'm not sick, but I'm sure the only reason I haven't been targeted is to keep as lynch fodder). Even if Legate, Lalaith, or Lommy come out to say they're afflicted with the black breath. Sorry only going to vote Lottie or Kuru for rep. It may be lazy or boring to go with a no lynch and hold on for reinforcements, but if that's now an achievable path to victory, let's do it. There's no shame or cheapness about it, we still had to make key choices to get into this position. So, thank you Lottie and everyone for being wise and level-headed throughout these nightmares. (Sorry for not bolding anyone's names, this was all typed from my phone). I'll be back at some point to vote for a rep and see what else has happened
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Fenris Penguin
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11-04-2016, 09:36 AM
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#4 |
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Laconic Loreman
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 7,521
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And if I had to choose in order if most-wolfy to least:
Lalaith - Kuru laid out a solid argument. If there is decided to be a lynch today, she'd be the only one I would want the rep to go for. Legate and Lommy I'm putting together. It's what gets me thinking there's still 2, but based purely on personal reasons. I've made myself a very easy lynch fodder, and basically the only one the conspirators have to go after right now. So, i know both of them are capable of using that to distract from Lalaith, if one of them was a fellow conspirator. But I wouldn't want either of them lynched just based on that reason alone, especially if we have the ability now to win without a lynch today. Kuru- if he's a wolf, we're dead already and I tip my cap To an excellent and brilliantly executed game plan.
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Fenris Penguin
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11-04-2016, 09:37 AM
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#5 |
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Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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Hmm...where is everyone?
Numbers Post.
I'm slightly modifying the format...and this post will be a bit lengthy, but the content is pretty straightforward. I wish it was easier to set up charts and tables on the forum.  Worst Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil DAY FIVE Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta DAY SIX Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta Player 5 I just put both gifteds in there for convenience sake. On the No-Lynch choice in the worst case scenario we would be dependent on a correct bard save/herbalist heal (assuming the herbalist has any juice left). This would be a pretty chancy prospect. But, I don't for a minute think this is actually the scenario we are facing. And if it is I take my hat off to the wolves. Medium Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil DAY FIVE Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta (Baddie 8) DAY SIX Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil Shasta (Baddie 8) Player 4 The wolves already cannot win if we are in this case, they can't get enough kills. A No-Lynch would be viable. Best Case Scenario if we do No-Lynch and assuming No Save DAY ONE McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY TWO McCaber Nerwen Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 DAY THREE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 8 Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen DAY FOUR Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 9 Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil (Baddie 8) DAY FIVE Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil (Baddie 8) Shasta (Baddie 9) DAY SIX Player 4 Player 5 Bard Player Herbalist Player Baddie 10 Dead McCaber Nerwen Inzil (Baddie 8) Shasta (Baddie 9) Player 3 Also here the wolves are doomed and cannot win regardless of what they do. My personal belief is we have the best case scenario, but it is possible that we are on medium. There isn't much we can do if we are on worst. We would have to roll the dice on a lynch and hope for the best. But I don't believe we are on the worst case. Nothing about the way this game has unfolded leads me to believe we are facing the worst case scenario right now. All that being said, I invite everyone to pick apart my numbers and analysis to make sure it is sound. As I said before, never trust me with counting. While I think we are safe to Not Lynch, I kind of would like to lynch Lalaith. I think the case against her is compelling and I'd like to take a stab at winning this thing with a clean sweep. But I am not wedded to that if the rest of the Ward doesn't think it advisable. Xed with 2 Boro's
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... Last edited by Kuruharan; 11-04-2016 at 09:45 AM. Reason: 2nd edit - I screwed up my italics. There's got to be a better way to organize these lists |
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11-04-2016, 09:47 AM
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#6 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Okay, I am going to say it now in case there is still a reason for it to be relevant in making the numbers, which it probably is. At least as far as the numbers are concerned. If the numbers are not concerned, then we have lost anyway.
I actually am afraid the Bard did not manage to make the save last Night, and that is because woe is me. That is why I believe the only way we can go out of here is that we try to make a lynch toDay. Try to lynch a Wolf.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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11-04-2016, 09:57 AM
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#7 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Just in case somebody is skimming through the thread and not paying proper attention to everything, I will repeat this in order to make it visible.
WOE IS ME. (Woe is me, woe is you... - ok, maybe not the most thematically appropriate, but I have it now stuck in my head with the wrong lyrics) And I suggest a lynch toDay.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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11-04-2016, 10:15 AM
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#8 | |
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Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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Quote:
But there is a silver lining...it removes any further possible suspicions that you are a wolf. Well, I guess somebody could counter-claim, but I don't think there are any players left in the game who could do so credibly.
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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11-04-2016, 10:25 AM
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#9 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Nooooo...I was so hopeful!
Now that you've been aflicted, I think we are back to maybe needing to lynch toDay - and I agree that Lalaith seems like the obvious target. Lommy seems more on the innocent side to me, and I don't have a great read on Boro, but I also don't have any particular reasons to suspect him, which means that Lalaith - who I've had reasons to suspect for a while now - would be my pick for Last Lynch.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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11-04-2016, 10:27 AM
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#10 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Well, the question is what to try to do now. Or rather, whom...
Taking into account every single possibility. Lalaith would be the simplest option, she was on the table yesterDay besides Shasta. If we are following this through, we may just as well follow it through. Boro... after his last post... I am not sure, I believe his death won't accomplish anything. Lommy... I am not sure. If she is a Wolf, I don't think she is a lone one. There would be at least two of them. Possibly three. And in that way, I would prioritise someone else over her. For the sake of completion, since I said I will mention every single possibility, I think we can't very well steer away from the track of not lynching Lottie or Kuru; that path has been closed to us long time ago. At the latest moment probably sometime yesterDay. It's a game where nobody knows anything, and you just have to close your eyes and make a choice. We did.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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