Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Certainly a good thought process, but the other side of the coin is a no lynch vote is in itself a bandwagon to easily hide in. It discourages suspicions and allegations and other information that can be dissected Day two.

True, I'm just not sure if there will be any information on Day Two regardless. There's MAYBE two baddies, and only one of them actually matters. No way the Evil Wizard sticks their head out for the wolf, so the only way we might get info is if we happen to hit on the Evil Wizard and the wolf tries to come to their rescue - 1/16 shot to draw anyone out, instead of the 1/4 chance we would have if we had a pack of four normal wolves. Suspect and throw accusations all you want - but I'm concerned that there's just not enough at stake for the wolves to actually act like wolves. I would almost call what we have toDay a werebear and an intelligent cobbler rather than a true wolf pack, and I think we need to strategize with that in mind.

I have a question, also - what happens if we try to lynch a Wizard? Do they just die, no chance for a Duel?

[Morsul the Dark]

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

[Morsul the Dark]

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

*old man voice
Back in my day we had wolves and gifted not these new fangled wizards

Actually, the Wizards predate the both of us.

[Morsul the Dark]

I've certainly never played a game with them. But time to pretend to be serious since my posts are mostly banter.

1. My last thought on lynch no lynch. If my math is correct we have a 6.25% of getting bad wizard today. If we forego lynching and lose a friend overnight that leaves 1/15. 6.66666% not going to lie seems to me we could easily have the same exact debate tomorrow which is one reason I'm not a fan of the policy.

2. The dead thread. Even if we make a few mistakes the dead thread could be a little Kharmic power to help us later on.

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

4. I'm going to sleep.

[Boromir88]

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

I WANT TO SEE SOME PUNISHMENT!!!!

hroom, sorry I'm going to be prone to outbursts this time. I'm not good underground, feeling a little denned up.

Who wants to come on an 8th attempt to find an exit? And if failing to find it, maybe I can get the consolation of finding the master of these halls...to throttle him for putting me through his games and schemes again.

So, there's a wizard...but is it a ninja-wizard?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I have a question, also - what happens if we try to lynch a Wizard? Do they just die, no chance for a Duel?

Not sure, but my guess is that they don't die, and their role as a Wizard is revealed in the narration (though whether they are good or evil remains a mystery).

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. The more wolves, the better the odds one of them dies through lynching, or from the Hunter. I can see the attraction of not creating them all back-to-back. Both Wizards will be hiding from one another early on, I would think, so they're also not going to want to put themselves forward as scrying targets until they'e made their minions.

I doubt the Evil Wizard will create all four wolves back-to-back, but I also don't think they would wait too long to create multiple wolves. While the likelihood of being discovered this soon isn't great, leaving a lone wolf for too long can be risky on the chance the Evil Wizard's identity is discovered within the first few Days/Nights.

I'm generally against a no lynch on Day 1. It just seems like a cop out to me. The odds may not be great, but we could still get lucky. And anyway, the results of a lynch are far more telling than a non lynch.

The first Day is always the trickiest, so it's nice to see some good substance up for discussion already..

[Nerwen]

Good morning all... but what terrible things are happening in this village... canyon... labyrinth... whatever? Terrible, terrible things! Aiiiieeee!!!

*is immediately lynched by Aganzir*

So, I see people are wondering about the possibility of lynching a Wizard. Well:

Originally Posted by The Rules

There is a Good Wizard and an Evil Wizard. They are the driving force behind much of the game. They are the only two roles that are assigned by me at the start of the game. They cannot be killed by normal means; they must be killed by each other in a Wizard’s Duel (which should be thought of as being pronounced Weeeeeezaaaaard’s Duuuuel in a ridiculous high pitched voice) in which both of them will perish.

As for the question of how many Gifteds/wolves we have... I concur that it's probably one of each, but the rules would seem to allow for other scenarios, so I am not sure how much point there is in trying to do a statistical analysis of our chances.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Chance of getting a baddie with no lynch 0/16

Don't get me wrong mathematically I get the logic.

Then again I'm not entirely sure I get the whole wizard deal.

I'm usually averse to a no-lynch on general principles. As it is, we have, presumably, a Good Wizard, a Gifted, an Evil Wizard, and a wolf. A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

x/d with Morsul again

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

I meant, a 2/16 chance of hitting either Wizard or his minion. That's what being up for 17 hours does.