Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

That is also a reasonable point.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

Well I guess the Mod could clarify that for us, if it's relevant? Although also with what you said, unless the Wolves are doing some super-complicated scheme, even in normal village there isn't much pre-plotting on first Night.

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

Well, the Nightly kill, at least toNight, may be as much of a crapshoot for the baddies as the lynch would be toDay.

Ordinarily, they'd be mainly looking for the Seer. But in this situation the Good Wizard has that capacity. Is there anything in the Rules about what happens if the kill-choice happens to be the Good Wizard? He can only be taken out by the Evil Wizard, but how would an aborted kill on the Good Wizard look to the wolves? Could they figure his identity that way?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

-and-

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Dead Thread Vote Empowerment doesn't impact the Victory Tally.

The Victory Tally is compiled at the beginning of each phase. If the evil side equals the number of remaining goodies then evil wins at that moment. The Dead Thread Vote Empowerment is something that happens within a phase that could impact the outcome of a vote for a lynching candidate.

EDIT: And I suppose I should further clarify that victory is determined in the Living Thread.

[Boromir88]

No one throws a party like a party at Kuru's...I'll give the dwarf credit for that. There's quite a collection of folks I've lost touch with over the last couple years and it's just nice to have us back together...even in these unfortunate circumstances. This is not a nice place to meet.

The good thing about these dueling wizards game is you can even stay involved and participate after death. Sometimes it's rough to decide the first one to go, because you want to give everyone a chance to participate and play...but someone's got to go first. At least now no matter who or when you die, everyone can still influence and participate beyond the grave.

I fully intend to vote today. Call it luck, a Fool's Hope, or what have you, I don't see any reason to think taking a shot in the dark is going to be a devastating risk.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I fully intend to vote today. Call it luck, a Fool's Hope, or what have you, I don't see any reason to think taking a shot in the dark is going to be a devastating risk.

That's what cannon fodder is for.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so what do we have?

Morsul the Dark - Posted first, therefore obviously evil.
Inziladun - Waited for Morsul to post first to be less obvious, therefore obviously evil.
Loslote - Discusses Evil Wizard tactics, therefore obviously evil.
Boromir88 - Mostly in-character, therefore obviously evil.
Brinniel - See Lottie.
Nerwen - Clarifies the rules in her first post, therefore obviously evil.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Too helpful and involved in the discussion to be a clueless innocent, therefore obviously evil.
Thinlómien - Tries to use the 'talks about Evil Wizard tactics' argument to cast suspicion on Lottie, therefore obviously evil.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Quiet, therefore obviously evil.

Eönwë - Well, obviously I'm not evil.

Shastanis Althreduin - Hasn't posted yet, so obviously evil.
satansaloser2005 - See Shasta.
Lalaith - See Shasta.
Mithalwen - See Shasta.
Nogrod - See Shasta.
Pervencia Took - See Shasta.


Ok, this is going to be harder than I thought...

edit: x-ed since Kuru's last post.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok. So I'm voting.

Now it's time for me to say that weird thing no one likes.

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I honestly think the bads have a lot more to lose than us. Not going to lie... gifteds to me, anyway, are less than helpful. You get reveals and counter reveals and a seer in a game where characters can change roles? I'm just not convinced losing them is entirely game breaking. Getting the evil wizard though destroys the baddies chances. Especially if we get lucky and get him day one.

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The Wizards cannot be lynched, though I wonder (see above) how that plays out if they're put on the block, either by a lynch, or a wolf-kill on the Good Wizard.

Yeah, I imagine it just means that they are outed as a a wizard, but we can't really do anything about it, and we won't know which they are. And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

[Morsul the Dark]

So... yeah I just reread the whole Wizard doohickey. I'm slightly less confused. But still think having a confirmed identity of the EW would be good. Then there are the visitors... oy I'm so confused.

But I stand by my statements.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yeah, I imagine it just means that they are outed as a a wizard, but we can't really do anything about it, and we won't know which they are. And the worst part is, even if we did get the Evil Wizard toDay, they'd still have 2 more Nights before they could be taken out by the Good Wizard, by which point they could've worked all sorts of mischief.

Sensible, this. No help with deciding on a vote, though.

[Boromir88]

I get positive vibes from Eonwe's posts, Morsul's active and willing contributions, and Brinn's one post.

I'm fully anticipating and hoping to get blocky-posts analysis from Legate.

Anyone who hasn't posted makes me wary if they remember we've started and they're stuck here with the rest of us...

I think Lottie is doing what she likes to do best...go against the grain and counter groupthink.

I never trust Eomer...it could be he looks like he cooks better than he cooks.

I feel like I'm always attacking and voting for Inzil Day 1.

[Loslote]

Randomly killing someone who will probably be an ordo just to say we did something doesn't sit well with me, but if that's what we as a group want to do, I don't have any stronger objections than that I think it will be a waste of a number. I don't think we're in too much danger of killing a Gifted, so it's certainly not the end of the world to lynch someone toDay. That being said, I have no strong feelings as to who is on the chopping block, either. I haven't found anyone to be suspicious. 2/5 of the village have yet to post, but I don't know that I feel better about lynching someone who hasn't said anything either, though.

EDIT: xed with Eonwe, Zil, and Boro

[Mithalwen]

Well, hello. I have read through and got distracted looking at old games.
Anyway all I can say so far is Loslote is pinging my radar like mad. Maybe unfair but various alarm bells triggered. Maybe a bit too aware of potential evil strategy but then querying one of the few criteria even I in my dippy perimenopausal state grasped seemed odd. Or at least the sort of thing I was righteously lynched for in the past.

And the context of that suspicion makes the suggestion of no lynch a bit convenient. Anyway hope a few more bods will surface before voting is necessary. I don't want to leave it too late my insomnia has been replaced by near narcolepsy. It is true what they say about aging. Not fun but interesting.

[Eönwë]

Ok, onto serious discussion then.

First of all, as most most people seem to agree, I think that a no-lynch Day 1 is a Day wasted. More importantly, it's a free headstart for the wolves (and the EW this game) on kills. Even in the (extremely) unlikely scenario that the EW didn't turn a wolf last Night, that still gives the Dark Side a free pass. So definitely up for a lynching today.

In terms of actual suspicious behaviour, while my last post was intended as a joke, Lommy's comments on Lottie's "[eyebrow-raising]" behaviour could actually be a classic case of the "this seems suspicious but I'm not actually suspecting you" wolf-tactic to sow distrust early on and have evidence of early suspicion to fall back on if necessary. While I do agree that it's best practice not to discuss the evil side's tactics too much, I also think Lottie was right to point out that it's not necessarily the case that a wolf will be added each Night. Though, ok, talking about how this might differ from the GW and what strategies might underpin these differences might be a bit much.

Anyway, seems like a quiet Day so far, so I'm going to reread the thread.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

First of all, as most most people seem to agree, I think that a no-lynch Day 1 is a Day wasted. More importantly, it's a free headstart for the wolves (and the EW this game) on kills. Even in the (extremely) unlikely scenario that the EW didn't turn a wolf last Night, that still gives the Dark Side a free pass. So definitely up for a lynching today.

I don't see it as a free headstart. Quite the opposite, we almost certainly double the number of killed innocents if we lynch today. When we have basically nothing to go on, this is a risk not worth taking. I wouldn't eliminate someone today just to look busy.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I don't see it as a free headstart. Quite the opposite, we almost certainly double the number of killed innocents if we lynch today. When we have basically nothing to go on, this is a risk not worth taking. I wouldn't eliminate someone today just to look busy.

Yeah, but that's always the case, isn't it? It's not a matter of 'looking busy', it just has always seemed wrong to not take advantage of the opportunity (slim though it may be) to get a baddie. And will the circumstances toMorrow be much different?

x/d with Morsul

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, I'm saying that it's not always the case. There's usually 3 targets out there instead of (probably) 1 - I don't count the EW in this because we could just as well pick the GW and disadvantage him or her that way. Also, those targets could be linked somehow. Here we have no links. And yes, I think that tomorrow will be slightly different, because we'll probably have a kill to work with.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so just in the interest of balance (and to think through the idea properly for myself), I have thought of two reasons against needing to vote today.

First of all, the fact is that the EW gets to turn 4 wolves. That means that unless they get duelled before they can, it is possible for them to replenish the number of wolves. That said, the counterpoint to this is they might be found out before then (and an attempted lynch would aid this).

The other point is in terms of Dead Thread tactics. If we lynch someone now, we have the following situation:
N1: 0 in DT
D1: 0 in DT
N2: 1 in DT
D2: 2 in DT (1/2 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N3: 3 in DT (1/3 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
D3: 4 in DT (3/4 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N4: 5 in DT (3/5 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
... etc.

This means that at each Night, there are 2 unknowns. Of course, if we now agree to a certain rule (e.g. always vote for the unknown that's spent the longest time in the DT), then it could be easier, but there's always the chance of a wasted Night vote early on with 2 unknown wolves overpowering the general vote, and there's also a risk of wolves messing stuff up in moments where people would be tempted to break this rule, e.g. when a Visitor is there.

If we didn't lynch someone today, we'd have:
N1: 0 in DT
D1: 0 in DT
N2: 0 in DT
D2: 1 in DT
N3: 2 in DT (1/2 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
D3: 3 in DT (3/3 known roles) - can vote to strengthen a vote
N4: 4 in DT (3/4 known roles) - can vote to find out a role
... etc.

Of course, this is super hypothetical and I can imagine a few situations where it would break down (e.g. Ranger save, Wizards' duel, etc.), but just thought I'd put it out there.

I do also think it would be good to have some protocol in place about what should be done in the Dead Thread so that when the Visitors do visit, they can actually be useful to the Living.


edit: x-posted with Eomer.