Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. Has the wolf had a change to talk to the Evil Wizard yet? They can pm during the Night phase, but the choice is also made during the Night phase. If the wolf is flying blind, we might look to see shifts in behavior or attitude toMorrow, after the Evils have had a chance to talk to one another. We should be keeping an eye out for shifts in attitude towards other players in general, actually - the Gifteds probably won't have as much reason to change how they behave towards specific individuals.

Yes, I think the potential shifts in behavior in general are going to be one of the most relevant indicators - something we should pay attention to, especially given the fact that we can't be certain about roles of the dead people. That's actually what worries me the most, correct me if I am wrong, but does it mean that until we get some come-back from the Dead thread (or figure something out through the empowering-voting system like in Kuru's last game), we won't really get any info about who were those who died anyway. Right?

Originally Posted by Loslote

2. Our chances of hitting either a baddie or a Gifted are really low toDay, which means this might be one of the few situations in which a no lynch Day One makes sense. Plus, since there aren't many wolves, they'll have to be a lot less careful about pack behavior, which means one of our standby clues won't come into play at first.

Numerically, it might make sense, if the village can agree on this. On the other hand, Morsul has a point in saying that the odds won't necessarily change very much. But I am all for at least considering that option.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm usually averse to a no-lynch on general principles. As it is, we have, presumably, a Good Wizard, a Gifted, an Evil Wizard, and a wolf. A 2/16 chance of hitting one of the baddies or one of the good guys. Better than usual chance of innocent blood on Day One.

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, I see people are wondering about the possibility of lynching a Wizard. Well:

But I assume that means that when lynched, the Wizard in question won't die, which would just give away to the other Wizard who they are. So in a way, it is kind of the same thing.

I'm off for a while, but I'll be back later, nice to see some activity here. I mean, for Day 1, impressive...

[Boromir88]

*Boro walks over to the guillotine*

You know there is the lynch in and of itself, which can be useful. But also the very threat of the lynch I find can be useful.

*Boro starts pulling levers and contraptions which set off the decapitating blade...THUD!. He resets and does it a few more times. THUD! THUD!*

Hold people's toes to the fire, as they say. Or I guess, in this case place the head a neck here...

*Boro lies down and places his head and neck in the proper spot. Anyone could come over and send Boro's head flying clean off*

You all picking up what I'm putting down?

*He thinks he hears some gasps of NO! What is the fool doing? And he wonders if there's more than one person saying in their own heads OFF WITH HIS HEAD!*

*Boro steps away from the guillotine*

I just wanted to see how it works. Would it be a good, clean death? It's all academic.

It's curious that 2 people posted and the idea of no lynch today is getting the most talk. Personally, I would have waited until ya know we heard from more people before trying to give a big huge sign "Ah, let's sit on our hands and not lynch today. Look at these dreadful odds!"

[Thinlómien]

*waves excitedly* It's been like a decade since the last game!

I'm at work, so just two quick points for now:

1) I would refrain from academic discussion about what are feasible strategies for the Evil Wizard as long as speculating those strategies doesn't give us any leads on the Evil Wizard's/ the wolves' identity. We don't want to give him tips, do we? This made me raise eyebrows at Lottie- but you'd assume the wolf would have more private channels for strategic suggestions. Also the EW might proclaim her potential strategies publicly to mislead us, but that's really unnecessarily bold for a first post. Anyway, the point stands that of all things to speculate aloud, best EW strategies isn't the smartest choice.

2) I'm - as you can probably guess - against a no-vote. As someone said, a lynch is always more telling than a no-lynch, and as the lynches are our only ammo, we should use them. I agree the odds are not great, but if we wait for better odds we might spend the whole game waiting while being butchered one by one in our sleep.

edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, I think the potential shifts in behavior in general are going to be one of the most relevant indicators - something we should pay attention to, especially given the fact that we can't be certain about roles of the dead people. That's actually what worries me the most, correct me if I am wrong, but does it mean that until we get some come-back from the Dead thread (or figure something out through the empowering-voting system like in Kuru's last game), we won't really get any info about who were those who died anyway. Right?

I believe so. Isn't that the whole point of the Visitors?

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

"Better" as in "more likely".

But I assume that means that when lynched, the Wizard in question won't die, which would just give away to the other Wizard who they are. So in a way, it is kind of the same thing.

I agree, but Lottie was asking specifically if a lynched Wizard would just die in the normal way, and the rules are clear on that point.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's curious that 2 people posted and the idea of no lynch today is getting the most talk. Personally, I would have waited until ya know we heard from more people before trying to give a big huge sign "Ah, let's sit on our hands and not lynch today. Look at these dreadful odds!"

And are the odds necessarily bad? Depends on how you look at it. Will they be "better" or "worse" toMorrow, when we will possibly have another wolf and another gifted? Really not that clear-cut.

Originally Posted by Loslote

True, I'm just not sure if there will be any information on Day Two regardless. There's MAYBE two baddies, and only one of them actually matters. No way the Evil Wizard sticks their head out for the wolf, so the only way we might get info is if we happen to hit on the Evil Wizard and the wolf tries to come to their rescue - 1/16 shot to draw anyone out, instead of the 1/4 chance we would have if we had a pack of four normal wolves. Suspect and throw accusations all you want - but I'm concerned that there's just not enough at stake for the wolves to actually act like wolves. I would almost call what we have toDay a werebear and an intelligent cobbler rather than a true wolf pack, and I think we need to strategize with that in mind.

Are you saying you think the wolf doesn't know the Evil Wizard's identity? Or just that they won't have had time to plot together yet? But then the pack often doesn't do that much plotting on Night One anyway, even in a normal game- they usually don't have enough to go on.

EDIT: x'd since my last post.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

[Morsul the Dark]

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Every day will be day one with a lot of information from the previous day being suspect at best. In my opinion in this type of game no lynch for the sake of information gathering isn't the most helpful strategy. And as Boro said we're straight out of the gate saying do nothing...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hello all. Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

That's pretty much what I was getting at. Like I said, only a 1/16 chance of making a dent in the wolves. Not an ideal scenario.But not voting still chafes.
Did we ever clarify if the Wizard and the newly-created wolf have communicated? I would still lean toward the negative.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

To be fair with the mechanic of wolves being created at random times by the evil wizard we have no real knowledge of how many wolves we have at any given time plus people who were once considered iron clad innocent could be evil the next day. While I understand looking for sudden changes in behavior it seems to me we'll never have a clear grasp on who the bad guys really are because we won't even know how many.

Knowing that each Night might (or might not) have given us a new wolf to deal with really will make it tough.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Hello all.

Well, I'm initially in favour of no-lynch today. I see some arguments against this posted already, but they only seem applicable to normal games imo. A lynch today would be even more random than normal games - at least in those we can presume some level of cooperation between the baddies and look for the tiniest hints. Here it just seems like a shot in the dark, and killing off a gifted would have a greater impact at this stage than killing a wolf (if these roles have indeed been filled yet).

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm not convinced that vote-and-lynch analysis on Day 2 would be of any help considering it would be done without any idea of nightly activity.

That is also a reasonable point.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See my post at #23. If the wolf knows who the Evil Wizard is, I don't think it's *all* that different from a normal Day One- as I said, in my experience not that much plotting happens on Night One anyway. Also, do we know for sure they haven't been able to communicate?
EDIT: x'd with Morsul.

Well I guess the Mod could clarify that for us, if it's relevant? Although also with what you said, unless the Wolves are doing some super-complicated scheme, even in normal village there isn't much pre-plotting on first Night.

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said, I actually believe the first kill is going to be something more relevant to our observations, because that is going to reflect at least in some way on how the baddies think here. Which goes back, again, to the same thing as in every Day 1 discussion: the chiefly cited reason to wait is that on Day 2, you already have some evidence on who's been killed and all that.

Well, the Nightly kill, at least toNight, may be as much of a crapshoot for the baddies as the lynch would be toDay.

Ordinarily, they'd be mainly looking for the Seer. But in this situation the Good Wizard has that capacity. Is there anything in the Rules about what happens if the kill-choice happens to be the Good Wizard? He can only be taken out by the Evil Wizard, but how would an aborted kill on the Good Wizard look to the wolves? Could they figure his identity that way?

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

3. For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

-and-

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ah. I would think so, but Mister Mod can elaborate, of course.

Dead Thread Vote Empowerment doesn't impact the Victory Tally.

The Victory Tally is compiled at the beginning of each phase. If the evil side equals the number of remaining goodies then evil wins at that moment. The Dead Thread Vote Empowerment is something that happens within a phase that could impact the outcome of a vote for a lynching candidate.

EDIT: And I suppose I should further clarify that victory is determined in the Living Thread.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

For clarification since the dead thread gives a voter a double vote does that change victory parameters for wolves? Usually it's wolves=innocents but in theory if it got to 1/1 the dead thread could break that tie?

Those in the Dead Thread can benefit either side that way. Why would it just go for the wolves?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm generally against a no lynch on Day 1. It just seems like a cop out to me. The odds may not be great, but we could still get lucky. And anyway, the results of a lynch are far more telling than a non lynch.

Yeah, I agree. I always seem to kick around the idea of not voting Day 1, but I always end up doing it, even when it's a total crapshoot.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Wait, why better, if normally it is, say, 3/16? (Like in a village which has the average three Wolves.)

Until Nerwen brought it up, I'd actually forgotten that the Wizards can't be lynched. So that makes it a 1/16 chance of getting a wolf toDay, and that's if one was made last Night.

x/d with Nerwen and Lommy

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Those in the Dead Thread can benefit either side that way. Why would it just go for the wolves?



Yeah, I agree. I always seem to kick around the idea of not voting Day 1, but I always end up doing it, even when it's a total crapshoot.



Until Nerwen brought it up, I'd actually forgotten that the Wizards can't be lynched. So that makes it a 1/16 chance of getting a wolf toDay, and that's if one was made last Night.

x/d with Nerwen and Lommy

Perhaps I wasn't clear. In a 1/1 situation in theory the dead could swing a win in either direction. I'm just wondering if a tie is still an automatic win.