Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If by creating a wolf N2, the EW then gets to make a kill on N2, I'd definitely wait until N2 until creating a wolf. If I were the EW, just to get the joy of seeing a completely fruitless D1 lynch, because there would be no wolf to lynch.

And this is exactly the question I was asking (and Kuru hasn't answered yet)!

Absolutely secure innocent-lynch (unless lynched herself) on D1 and still a possibility to kill someone on N2 when recruiting her first wolf only on the very same N2 would be a no-brainer for the EW.

Kuru's answer was not to this question. He answered to a question (which I at least didn't intend to ask), whether the EW could Nightkill the same wolf she turns into a wolf the same Night. It is a totally different question and not one that would help us determining whether there was a wolf around on D1 - aka. whether reading yesterday's voting fex. is totally worth zero or worth at least a try.


Another quick point - just as a remainder - the Dead might not see as the most beneficial course of action to be the "messenger boys and girls" who make insecure attempts at telling the living who someone (of lesser consequence by game terms) was or is if they can for example lynch a baddie with their vote - or point to a known villain with it.

The Dead know who is important to know for the living - the Living only shoot in the dark - well not necessarily in the first Days but later the difference becomes remarkable - and at least later on the Living should not think they are the ones on the driving seat because they are the blind ones while the Dead are not.

*Goes back to read more*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The Dead know who is important to know for the living - the Living only shoot in the dark - well not necessarily in the first Days but later the difference becomes remarkable - and at least later on the Living should not think they are the ones on the driving seat because they are the blind ones while the Dead are not.

The communication plans are absolutely less useful in late game. For one thing, the groups become smaller and smaller for each option, giving the Dead less flexibility and power. For another, the Visitors will have started to come into play, giving us more information than can be communicated via the empowerment vote. Probably around Day 5 we would have to drop the plan to some extent, or make serious alterations. That's fine, though. It doesn't have to work for the whole game. This kind of plan is extremely useful in the early game, and having it in place early on can help us get our footing. One vote is not likely to change the lynch when we still have 10+ people voting, and the Dead are not likely to be online en masse close enough to DL to tailor their vote to how the livings' votes are going anyway. Pretty much all the empowerment vote can be used for the first few times is communication.

EDIT: xed with Boro

[Nogrod]

*Surfacing back before reading all of toDay just to bring forth an idea*

How about this?

We the Living consider the votes of the Dead as a kind of advice of an older sibling or parent - they know more but are not infallible. And we should probably do this in an increasing scale of trust that there is a point in who they want to help lynch.

Like toDay (with no-one lynched on D1) there will only be Morsul voting there and he doesn't know anything more than we do - so we'll consider his vote as his suggestion, with the already statistical probability that he is more likely an innocent one, who could be as far off as anyone of us could be.

I'd say D3 is the most problematic and we should take anything coming from there with a pinch of salt - but yet most probably it would be an assessment of some fellow-villagers.

After that the dead should have settled their game with five or more people in and the goodies should have the upper hand (even if that is in no way a safe bet) - and the more Days go by, the clearer view they will have of the situation and the more we should listen to them in regards to whom they try to get lynched with their vote.

This kind of attitude wouldn't lessen the fun of people playing in the Dead thread neither lessen the need of the Living to consider thoroughly what to do with the suggestions the Dead are making.

And really: if the EW decides then to try and crowd the Dead thread, she'll soon fall short of baddies to use (she's only allowed 4 in total and only 3 at a time) and then quite inevitably lose by numbers here in the Living thread as well...

EDIT: Managed to X with at least Lommmy & Eönwe

[Nogrod]

Okay, decided to clarify my point in another short post as I truly realized the point with all (most?) of it's ramifications myself just thinking about it again.

The problem in the Dead thread is that they only know approximately half of the people. With two people entering there (on average) per one D/N -cycle and them being able to check only one in the same time-frame, there's going to be some confusion at least in the beginning (they'll know only half for sure). But like I said, the good side should eventually come to grips with that.

Thus we shouldn't take anything they say as a fact or a strict rule (X is innocent, Y is a wolf) even if we had very smart systems to make that kind of questions to them. But we should increasingly trust their evaluation of the situation as a more informed fellow-villager's (party-guest's) advice.

And like I said, the EW wouldn't want to throw all her gang into the Dead thread as then it would be a game over immediately when the Duel takes place. She needs numbers in the Living thread to make the game continue...


*Ok. back now*


PS. Has anyone or is anyone going to make a look at the voting yesterDay? With the assumption that here was a wolf there already on D1 (most probable I'd say) and how fishy the voting looked there just could be a chance there was some foul play involved - at least chance enough to merit a check. I'll look at it soon - unless someone is doing it already right now.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like toDay (with no-one lynched on D1) there will only be Morsul voting there and he doesn't know anything more than we do - so we'll consider his vote as his suggestion, with the already statistical probability that he is more likely an innocent one, who could be as far off as anyone of us could be.

Morsul doesn't get to vote toDay.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

After there are TWO residents of the Dead Thread, every DAY the dead get to vote on giving one of the living an extra vote.

edit: x-ed with Zil