Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Eönwë]

Maybe it's selfish of me, but I'm pretty uncomfortable with Lalaith's list:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lottie prey
Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

Lottie predator
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë

None of the above
Nogrod
Brinniel

Whether or not it's intentional, it leaves the two people who are out for my blood in the same category ('None of the above'). In general, I feel like having a category with only two members is not great, and is exactly the kind of thing Lalaith warns out here:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

slicing us down into little portions for the Dead to choose from, really is not wise, as it gives the wolves too much of a pointer on who will get empowered and thus where to steer the lynching.

However, if she's a wolf this would require her to know what went on in the Dead Thread last Night, which would require the EW to have sacrificed at least one wolf and us to have lynched one (note: if the either Morsul or Lommy were such sacrifices, it means that it could be either Zil or Lottie could've been wolves, as Zil and one Morsul or Lottie could've overpowered the other).

Of course, this may just be coincidence, but in any case, I'd prefer either a 3/3/3 (with one 4) or 5/5 split (with the hope that there was no wolf-sacrifice) better.


Also, has anyone considered that Mith's death might not be a wolf-kill but rather a Ranger save and the GW assigning a Stranger that Leaves? And even if it's not, this is a possibility we should be aware of as the Days continue.


edit: x-ed since my last post. Nice to see that someone else (Eomer) also had the same idea!

[Lalaith]

Eonwe, I agree it's not a good idea to have two people alone in a category who both have the same likely voting pattern. Quite happy to mix the list (eg by swapping you and Nog?).

I think the 'none of the above' category is very unlikely which is why I suggested it being small, and giving the Dead more choice for the two more likely categories.

What I'm trying to avoid is the likelihood of giving the Dead the Hobson's Choice of empowering one of three baddies....and of giving the wolves too easy a guess about who will be empowered....

[Lalaith]

However, if she's a wolf this would require her to know what went on in the Dead Thread last Night

Sorry, I don't get this, and who is the 'she' you are referring to?
My point was that the wolves already know Zil is innocent because they would know he wasn't a wolf...and they would also know that the Dead, yesterDay were all innocents (Morsul, Lommy, Zil) and would thus all try to be helpful.
They would therefore also know that the empowerment vote would be one of Boro, Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Sorry, I don't get this, and who is the 'she' you are referring to?
My point was that the wolves already know Zil is innocent because they would know he wasn't a wolf...and they would also know that the Dead, yesterDay were all innocents (Morsul, Lommy, Zil) and would thus all try to be helpful.
They would therefore also know that the empowerment vote would be one of Boro, Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.

I meant if you were evil and were trying to subtly manipulate the list toDay. Though as I said, an evil-you doing this would require there to have been at least one wolf-sacrifice (so that there were 2+ to draw/overpower the vote last Night - the other option is 3 toDay overpowering the vote, but that would require 2 there last Night anyway), which I'm still not sure I believe is a likely possibility.

[Eönwë]

One thing I've found quite interesting is the Nerwen/Legate reaction to Nog. They seem to be acting quite similarly towards him - suspecting him, then easing up on him (and in Legate's case not voting him), then regretting easing up on him and suspecting him again.

On the one hand, if Nog turns out be innocent, this could potentially suggest a wolf-team trying to get him killed (though maybe it is a bit obvious).

On the other hand, if he's evil, this could either speak for them as innocents of wavering suspicion, or mean that they're wolves who are anticipating a torrent of votes for him toDay and want to ride the wave to victory.

[Eönwë]

Anyway, I've got to go now, so:

++Nog

[Lalaith]

I meant if you were evil and were trying to subtly manipulate the list toDay.

Ok I see what you were getting at. Well, as you were worried about the last category, would everyone be ok with this one? It would be good to get it agreed early. If people are really desperate to make the categories equal I would go along with that, reluctantly, if only to get a decision for the long-suffering Dead and move on to talking about something else.

Lottie prey
Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

Lottie predator
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod


None of the above
Eonwe
Brinniel

Anyway, if the bad dominate the good among the Dead, why would any live baddie even need to manipulate the list ? The list would have been useless anyway and the Dead would just be voting to confuse us and empower their own.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Maybe it's selfish of me, but I'm pretty uncomfortable with Lalaith's list:
Whether or not it's intentional, it leaves the two people who are out for my blood in the same category ('None of the above'). In general, I feel like having a category with only two members is not great, and is exactly the kind of thing Lalaith warns out here:

Well I think we are all going to eventually end up in a situation where we won't have much choice. I mean I don't think a Wolf would openly manipulate the list, but let's not "monopolise" it. But of course if we can make it "better" in this case, why not.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So can we all agree to Lal's list at #523?

I say yes.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

How likely is it that he would have been picked, considering how much he's been under suspicion?

True, although he has always managed to get out of that, also it would have been a good blind-side from the Wolves.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now Eomer, you mentioned the strange narration. Looking at the previous ones, I see the mysterious "buzzing" is also mentioned at the start of Day 2 as well (but not other Days) and this time it seems as though the significance is being emphasized. So I'd say it does indicate something unusual happened Nights 2 & 4.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Good catch, Nerwen.

Because of the kill on Night 2 - and Morsul clearly wasn't a visitor since he didn't come back - we can (surely!) presume that a wolf was created Night 1. No buzzing on Night 1, so surely the buzzing has nothing to do with wolf-creation.

The buzzing could indicate that EW and GW targeted same villager. Possible, though what are the odds of that happening twice?

Also, that would mean that Mith was a wolf kill. Perhaps I'm reading too much into this, but the narration for Night 4 does mention the swirling of many powers. This could indicate that more things happened on Night 4 than they did on Night 2, because nothing like that was mentioned on Night 2.

Could it have something to do with the visitors? Night 2, visitor who dies is created (before the visitor who leaves, which is the smart order for the GW to proceed imo). Normal wolf kill on that night. Night 4, visitor who leaves is created and immediately sent to dead thread (Mithalwen); plus wolf target and successful Ranger defence. That could fit.

Well any of that is plausible. If Mith was the Visitor, then we are going to learn it soon. As Nerwen said, the options are really many. The only thing I would conclude is that "many powers" indicates considerably more things happening than normally. But since we don't really know what, it doesn't really help us very much.

Anyway: considering looking at the votes, with assuming Zil's innocence, the most "Wolfy" votes among those would be Eönwë's and Boro's, which were cast clearly at the moment when the bandwagon was basically secured. Then again this is all bearing in mind that roles might keep changing in-between the Days, so anybody who was innocent at that point may not be anymore. But there had to be some baddies around at that point, and at least some of those could have easily used the bandwagon to hide their votes.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

One thing I've found quite interesting is the Nerwen/Legate reaction to Nog. They seem to be acting quite similarly towards him - suspecting him, then easing up on him (and in Legate's case not voting him), then regretting easing up on him and suspecting him again.

On the one hand, if Nog turns out be innocent, this could potentially suggest a wolf-team trying to get him killed (though maybe it is a bit obvious).

On the other hand, if he's evil, this could either speak for them as innocents of wavering suspicion, or mean that they're wolves who are anticipating a torrent of votes for him toDay and want to ride the wave to victory.

Speaking for myself, I'm an "innocent of wavering suspicion"- but obviously I would say that, wouldn't I? And part of my problem is that I'm not entirely easy about Legate, either.

[Nerwen]

So can we all agree to Lal's list at #523?

Now Eomer, you mentioned the strange narration. Looking at the previous ones, I see the mysterious "buzzing" is also mentioned at the start of Day 2 as well (but not other Days) and this time it seems as though the significance is being emphasized. So I'd say it does indicate something unusual happened Nights 2 & 4.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Eonwe, you said it much clearer than I was able to - I'm getting completely muddled up with nightly activities!