Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Lalaith]

So we are now ten and perhaps four of us are bad. I really hope Lottie was a wolf.
I'm in a rush to go to work now but will hopefully be able to post a bit more later. Annoyingly, I have also lost all the notes I made about the voting and its implications...but I wanted to put out there what's been worrying me all Night.

It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff, then risks his own vote, holding off until deadline, only to vote for Eonwe who as far as he knew only had one vote and thus his vote wouldn't make any difference anyway. However, as it happened, had his vote been allowed, it would have resulted in a no-lynch, because Brinn was empowered, and we would have had a draw.
Now, then I realised, the wolves already would know what the Dead would tell us - that Zil was innocent. This would mean that the wolves also knew into which "group" the empowerment would go. (As Zil was innocent he was likely to co-operate and thus the 'none of the above' category was unlikely to be used)
So, empowerment would go to either Boro (v unlikely as he said he probably couldn't vote) Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.
Given that Eomer and I had already contributed 2 out of the 3 votes to Lottie, if one of us got empowered Lottie would be unsavable. Eonwe voted for Nogs - if his vote had been empowered, we would have had another draw. As it happened, it was Brinn who got the empowerment which, had Nogs' late vote counted, would also have resulted in a draw.
So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival?
Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further )

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival?
Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further )

I can give you a simple solution to your enigma: I'm innocent. It makes perfect sense then (add the premise that I also like it in the Dead Thread so there was no pressure).

You can see that my previous post is timed at .59 (I made the mistake of answering Lottie who asked me a straight question) - and realized the time at the moment. The 30-second rule prevented me from posting my vote any earlier than I was then able to do - but you can see that I managed to post another one on .00 - so my vote was more or less a few seconds after .00. Yeah, I didn't manage to vote as Kuru was really on top of the hour. But that was in no way planned, but just a mistake (answering to Lottie at the last minute).

That simple.

[Nogrod]

Btw.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff

This is incorrect as well: don't take all Nerwen says at face-value but look at the thread. I spent the last couple of hours not on rules talk but trying to find a wolf - I even got a bit frustrated with Eönwe because he was doing that still an hour before the DL and posted this:

Originally Posted by Nog

Eönwe: please stop talking about Wizards and Visitors. Talk of people to vote toDay - and why exactly them.

I had to comment on the rules half an hour before the DL because my reason to suspect several people actually hung on it - and I realized I had read the rules wrong and stood corrected - but other than that I spent the last couple of hours talking about who to lynch, not the rules as such (unlike some others...).

Okay. 'nuff of that.


On other issues: I just remembered I did make a tally of the votes yesterDay - so here...

D3 voting

.48 Eomer -> Lottie
.49 Sally -> Lottie 2
.49 Lalaith -> Lottie 3
.54 Brinniel -> Eönwe
.54 Legate -> Boro
.56 Lottie -> Boro 2
.56 Nerwen -> Nog
.58 Eönwe -> Nog 2
.59 Shasta -> Legate

+ voter empowerment: Eönwe 2


EDIT: Triple-posting - will be away now then.

[Lalaith]

Ok Nogs, I can actually see a scenario too where you are innocent, but why the exciting drama of holding back on your vote til the last minute - only to vote for Eonwe - a vote which, as far as you knew, if you were innocent, would make no difference?
Why say this to Eonwe two hours before deadline:

Eönwe: please stop talking about Wizards and Visitors. Talk of people to vote toDay - and why exactly them

and then do nowt but talk about rules and stuff instead of who to vote for, yourself?
And what was this supposed to mean?

I might vote for Lottie to help my own chances of survival - and I do suspect her indeed - did it from the early on.

Now I'm just wondering whether it is the right thing to do - aka do I have a better choice that would also affect something...

A tie for Eonwe would have saved Lottie. An innocent Nogs could not have really guessed that Brinn would have been empowered. You could also have saved Lottie in a much more straightforward way - if that was indeed your aim - by voting for Boro, but you didn't. Which does in fact speak well of you, unless you also had reasons not to lynch Boro.

Anyway one thing is clear from all of this that Eonwe's idea from early yesterDay, of slicing us down into little portions for the Dead to choose from, really is not wise, as it gives the wolves too much of a pointer on who will get empowered and thus where to steer the lynching.
Eonwe's "small portions" plan would have left the Dead, incidentally, with a choice of Boro, Brinn or Eomer. As they chose Brinn anyway, this doesn't look hugely incriminating for Eonwe as being an attempt at wolf-steering the Dead empowerment, but still....

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If this doesn't sound like a false or forced concern / alarm, I'm not sure what would. We have no idea about our situation whatsoever (well, we might be able to infer that Zil was innocent - or then the Dead shared my concern on Eönwe) and it is just D4 in a game of Dueling Wizards where more or less anything can happen.

Naturally, we should lynch a wolf toDay, but opening the Day with "Okay, we really need to" sounds like something a Wolf would say after thinking how an innocent would open a Day.

Sorry, but that's nonsense. We do not *know* how things stand, and if the worst case scenario is true we're in quite a fix. That is simply a fact.

Originally Posted by Nog

I agree I have used a lot of time discussing those issues - and have not been the only one to be quite occupied with the rule / strategy -talk *coughEönwecough*. But unlike some others who have discussed a lot about that kind of issues, I have also ended that discussion in time to go actually into the bussiness of considering the lynches, trying to find suspicious things and been there discussing the lynch so that we could make reasonable decisions (unlike some who post lengthy strategy-manuals just before the DL - why is that not suspicious to you Nerwen?).

Who do you say did that? Steve?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I can give you a simple solution to your enigma: I'm innocent. It makes perfect sense then (add the premise that I also like it in the Dead Thread so there was no pressure).

You can see that my previous post is timed at .59 (I made the mistake of answering Lottie who asked me a straight question) - and realized the time at the moment. The 30-second rule prevented me from posting my vote any earlier than I was then able to do - but you can see that I managed to post another one on .00 - so my vote was more or less a few seconds after .00. Yeah, I didn't manage to vote as Kuru was really on top of the hour. But that was in no way planned, but just a mistake (answering to Lottie at the last minute).

That simple.

This is a fair point. And all the votes fell so close together yesterDay that I doubt anyone, guilty or innocent, was on top of things enough to make the kind of calculating move Lalaith seems to suggest.

[Lalaith]

Ok now I must really get on with my actual RL work for a bit.
But before I go...the list for the Dead. (sorry dead Mith, hope this doesn't rile you!)

There should be enough innocents in the dead thread to ensure a vote on Lottie so would it be better (given the empowerment issues I highlighted earlier) to make the 'none of the above' group smaller than the other two? I'm using Kuru's Living list here btw:

Lottie prey
Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

Lottie predator
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë

None of the above
Nogrod
Brinniel

We could even just divide us into two groups of five, prey and predator, and tell the dead not to empower anyone if there has been a 'none of the above' issue?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw.

This is incorrect as well: don't take all Nerwen says at face-value but look at the thread. I spent the last couple of hours not on rules talk but trying to find a wolf - I even got a bit frustrated with Eönwe because he was doing that still an hour before the DL and posted this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Eönwe: please stop talking about Wizards and Visitors. Talk of people to vote toDay - and why exactly them.

I had to comment on the rules half an hour before the DL because my reason to suspect several people actually hung on it - and I realized I had read the rules wrong and stood corrected - but other than that I spent the last couple of hours talking about who to lynch, not the rules as such (unlike some others...)

Well, maybe you think that's what you did, Nog, but the thread shows otherwise. At #415 (5:11 pm) you briefly agreed with Eomer that Legate was suspiciously agreeable. At #418 (5:35 pm) you did make a suspicion list, albeit a rather non-committal one. At #423 (6:04 pm) you made a post arguing that the Day One no-lynch supporters should be seen as suspicious. At #426 (6:10 pm) you told off Eonwe for "talking about Wizards and Visitors". Then at #432 (6:21 pm) you returned to the subject of... the Dead Thread! You then made two further posts on the subject at #438 (6:38 pm) and #450 (6:48 pm). (If these are the posts you're talking about, I'm not sure on whom suspicion would be "hanging"- clarification?). Finally, at #457 (6:51 pm), with less than 10 miniutes before DL, you announced your intention of going after "those who try to capitalize it with their clear understanding of the rules..." whatever that means, after which you announced you might vote Lottie, Boro, Eonwe and Eomer, made another post in which said you were thinking of voting Lottie, then voted Eonwe.

So no, I am not misrepresenting you. I will also point out that it was your single-minded focus on the Dead Thread during the last couple of hours that made me re-consider my suspicion of you, precisely because it seemed a bit foolhardy for a wolf.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok now I must really get on with my actual RL work for a bit.
But before I go...the list for the Dead. (sorry dead Mith, hope this doesn't rile you!)

There should be enough innocents in the dead thread to ensure a vote on Lottie so would it be better (given the empowerment issues I highlighted earlier) to make the 'none of the above' group smaller than the other two? I'm using Kuru's Living list here btw:

Lottie prey
Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

Lottie predator
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë

None of the above
Nogrod
Brinniel

We could even just divide us into two groups of five, prey and predator, and tell the dead not to empower anyone if there has been a 'none of the above' issue?

Maybe, but isn't there a risk of one of them voting by accident (or "accident")?

Edit: added comment.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Forewarning, I may not be around as much toDay as normally, because for large part, the time when I will have most time to play WW would be when I'm at work, throughout the, like, next seven hours or so. I hope to be back also a few hours before DL, but not for very long. In any case my posts may be shorter (ha, ha).

Anyway, as for now.

I agree with that Mith was widely unsuspected and it would make sense if she was meant to be a no-trace kill. One option is that the Wolves are really getting suspected and killing other people would bring them into the spotlight.

More interestingly, now that we can assume Zil's innocence, we can try to look back at events related to him at least with some knowledge. The bandwagon for him, for example, makes it clear that it was a "safe space" for Wolves to contribute to, i.e. being sure they would not vote for a fellow Wolf (but at the same time, casting a vote outside it was "safe space" in the sense that such a vote would not be linked to lynching an innocent. It was only less safe because it wasn't so dead clear yet at that time who was going to get the votes). Zil's spat with Nerwen is another thing, because now we know his retaliation was genuine; Nerwen's suspicion of him itself I am not sure of. I am growing wary of her again, I mean she has so far been moving around basically unsuspected for most of the time. Then again, it's her.

Otherwise: I am all for using the list Lalaith now provided. We should shuffle things up anyway so that it's not still the same list. I am also for the Dead checking Lottie next. The communication seems to work (hopefully), so let's keep it that way.

Speaking of communicating with Dead, I am still wary of Nogrod. His replies at the end of yesterDay looked genuine, but upon re-thinking, in the big picture, his one-track distraction and dismissing the communication with the Dead stands. In any case, I hope to read more of him when it comes to discussing people etc.

Boro's "confession" in the beginning of toDay pinged my radar as "I used to be a person willing to die, but recently I have been converted into a Wolf, so I don't want to die anymore".

Anyway. I agree with Nerwen that the Days are passing on, and we should make sure we lynch a Wolf, as it is theoretically possible we have four baddies here (especially now that effectively, we can assume except for Lottie that all the dead were innocents).

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Anyone else think the narration is pretty strange today?

Mithalwen was apparently taking the same route as the escapee; many powers swirling around them.

If there were 3 wolves among us then then there could be no wolf kill. EW would have to scry. GW might have sent Mith to the dead thread for her to come back tomorrow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gah! That's the second time I say the wrong thing. I mean, of course, that there could be no 4th wolf created.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway. I agree with Nerwen that the Days are passing on, and we should make sure we lynch a Wolf

Oh, really? Interesting idea. We must consider that as an option but let's not rush into it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Forewarning, I may not be around as much toDay as normally, because for large part, the time when I will haI agree with that Mith was widely unsuspected and it would make sense if she was meant to be a no-trace kill. One option is that the Wolves are really getting suspected and killing other people would bring them into the spotlight.

That is my thought too- though it could also be, as Brinn suggested, that they are getting afraid of the Hunter and Ranger.

Boro's "confession" in the beginning of toDay pinged my radar as "I used to be a person willing to die, but recently I have been converted into a Wolf, so I don't want to die anymore".

How likely is it that he would have been picked, considering how much he's been under suspicion?

[Eönwë]

Maybe it's selfish of me, but I'm pretty uncomfortable with Lalaith's list:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lottie prey
Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005

Lottie predator
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë

None of the above
Nogrod
Brinniel

Whether or not it's intentional, it leaves the two people who are out for my blood in the same category ('None of the above'). In general, I feel like having a category with only two members is not great, and is exactly the kind of thing Lalaith warns out here:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

slicing us down into little portions for the Dead to choose from, really is not wise, as it gives the wolves too much of a pointer on who will get empowered and thus where to steer the lynching.

However, if she's a wolf this would require her to know what went on in the Dead Thread last Night, which would require the EW to have sacrificed at least one wolf and us to have lynched one (note: if the either Morsul or Lommy were such sacrifices, it means that it could be either Zil or Lottie could've been wolves, as Zil and one Morsul or Lottie could've overpowered the other).

Of course, this may just be coincidence, but in any case, I'd prefer either a 3/3/3 (with one 4) or 5/5 split (with the hope that there was no wolf-sacrifice) better.


Also, has anyone considered that Mith's death might not be a wolf-kill but rather a Ranger save and the GW assigning a Stranger that Leaves? And even if it's not, this is a possibility we should be aware of as the Days continue.


edit: x-ed since my last post. Nice to see that someone else (Eomer) also had the same idea!

[Lalaith]

Eonwe, I agree it's not a good idea to have two people alone in a category who both have the same likely voting pattern. Quite happy to mix the list (eg by swapping you and Nog?).

I think the 'none of the above' category is very unlikely which is why I suggested it being small, and giving the Dead more choice for the two more likely categories.

What I'm trying to avoid is the likelihood of giving the Dead the Hobson's Choice of empowering one of three baddies....and of giving the wolves too easy a guess about who will be empowered....

[Lalaith]

However, if she's a wolf this would require her to know what went on in the Dead Thread last Night

Sorry, I don't get this, and who is the 'she' you are referring to?
My point was that the wolves already know Zil is innocent because they would know he wasn't a wolf...and they would also know that the Dead, yesterDay were all innocents (Morsul, Lommy, Zil) and would thus all try to be helpful.
They would therefore also know that the empowerment vote would be one of Boro, Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Eonwe, you said it much clearer than I was able to - I'm getting completely muddled up with nightly activities!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I can give you a simple solution to your enigma: I'm innocent. It makes perfect sense then (add the premise that I also like it in the Dead Thread so there was no pressure).

Innocent of what though? We both know innocence is all based on one's point of view.

++Legate

Call it retaliation voting, but the way I see I'm not close to evening the score. He's got a 3 vote head start on me. The tunnel focus is rather unusual and strange from Legate.

I'm not going to deny my early intentionally trying to be suspicious so I can have a good, relaxing time with the dead. Going to blame someone who spends most of his days with a cubic ton of pressuring responsibilities, just wanting to be silly and fun for a while, try to take it easy? The sudden shift is I have a conscience and early on if I'm going to be random, possibly destructive (although I'm not sure how? I'm not the one who's tried to undermine communicating with the dead thread) then it would only be to myself. As more folks drop like flies, if I continued to be self-destructive I would be ultimately harming the GW efforts...and that's not something even silly me wants to do. I'm going to whine and complain how I never die in these games, but it is what it is.

You should have to admit yourself, Legate, the switch I've done was really stinkin' obvious. Not that I wouldn't be trying to play mind games as a wolf, but the confession you say that pinged your radar doesn't make sense if I were a wolf. First I'm a crazy sacrificial wolf, just trying to be disruptive...and suddenly I get turned into a wolf a 2nd time and decide I don't want to be the sacrificial wolf?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Innocent of what though? We both know innocence is all based on one's point of view.

++Legate

Call it retaliation voting, but the way I see I'm not close to evening the score. He's got a 3 vote head start on me. The tunnel focus is rather unusual and strange from Legate.

I'm not going to deny my early intentionally trying to be suspicious so I can have a good, relaxing time with the dead. Going to blame someone who spends most of his days with a cubic ton of pressuring responsibilities, just wanting to be silly and fun for a while, try to take it easy? The sudden shift is I have a conscience and early on if I'm going to be random, possibly destructive (although I'm not sure how? I'm not the one who's tried to undermine communicating with the dead thread) then it would only be to myself. As more folks drop like flies, if I continued to be self-destructive I would be ultimately harming the GW efforts...and that's not something even silly me wants to do. I'm going to whine and complain how I never die in these games, but it is what it is.

You should have to admit yourself, Legate, the switch I've done was really stinkin' obvious. Not that I wouldn't be trying to play mind games as a wolf, but the confession you say that pinged your radar doesn't make sense if I were a wolf. First I'm a crazy sacrificial wolf, just trying to be disruptive...and suddenly I get turned into a wolf a 2nd time and decide I don't want to be the sacrificial wolf?

I like everything about this post.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff, then risks his own vote, holding off until deadline, only to vote for Eonwe who as far as he knew only had one vote and thus his vote wouldn't make any difference anyway. However, as it happened, had his vote been allowed, it would have resulted in a no-lynch, because Brinn was empowered, and we would have had a draw.
Now, then I realised, the wolves already would know what the Dead would tell us - that Zil was innocent. This would mean that the wolves also knew into which "group" the empowerment would go. (As Zil was innocent he was likely to co-operate and thus the 'none of the above' category was unlikely to be used)
So, empowerment would go to either Boro (v unlikely as he said he probably couldn't vote) Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.
Given that Eomer and I had already contributed 2 out of the 3 votes to Lottie, if one of us got empowered Lottie would be unsavable. Eonwe voted for Nogs - if his vote had been empowered, we would have had another draw. As it happened, it was Brinn who got the empowerment which, had Nogs' late vote counted, would also have resulted in a draw.
So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival?
Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further )

This is actually an interesting thought. I've realised I don't have time to look as in-detail as I'd like, but to make it easier for others if they want to take a look, I've combined the DT-voting list with the LT votes (where G, E, U, stand for whether their empowerment would mean that Zil was Good, Evil, or Unknown):

Eomer (G) --> Lottie
Sally (U) --> Lottie (2)
Lalaith (G) --> Lottie (3)
Brinn (G) --> Eonwe
Legate (E) --> Boro
Lottie (E) --> Boro (2)
Nerwen (E) --> Nog
Eonwe (G) --> Nog (2)
Shasta (U) --> Legate
(Nog (U) --> Eonwe)