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#1 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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So we are now ten and perhaps four of us are bad. I really hope Lottie was a wolf.
I'm in a rush to go to work now but will hopefully be able to post a bit more later. Annoyingly, I have also lost all the notes I made about the voting and its implications...but I wanted to put out there what's been worrying me all Night. It was Nog's weird behaviour near DL that got me thinking...he holds up voting debate going on about rules and stuff, then risks his own vote, holding off until deadline, only to vote for Eonwe who as far as he knew only had one vote and thus his vote wouldn't make any difference anyway. However, as it happened, had his vote been allowed, it would have resulted in a no-lynch, because Brinn was empowered, and we would have had a draw. Now, then I realised, the wolves already would know what the Dead would tell us - that Zil was innocent. This would mean that the wolves also knew into which "group" the empowerment would go. (As Zil was innocent he was likely to co-operate and thus the 'none of the above' category was unlikely to be used) So, empowerment would go to either Boro (v unlikely as he said he probably couldn't vote) Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me. Given that Eomer and I had already contributed 2 out of the 3 votes to Lottie, if one of us got empowered Lottie would be unsavable. Eonwe voted for Nogs - if his vote had been empowered, we would have had another draw. As it happened, it was Brinn who got the empowerment which, had Nogs' late vote counted, would also have resulted in a draw. So my question is, was this all a terrific gamble by a Nogs-wolf? What was it that he was waiting for, up until deadline, and why didn't he vote for Lottie or Boro to guarantee his own survival? Basically, I get so far with this theory and then I end up in a tangle. So I thought I'd put it out there now to see if anyone else can make sense of it. (Or what is more likely, for the wolves to tangle it up further ![]()
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#2 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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You can see that my previous post is timed at .59 (I made the mistake of answering Lottie who asked me a straight question) - and realized the time at the moment. The 30-second rule prevented me from posting my vote any earlier than I was then able to do - but you can see that I managed to post another one on .00 - so my vote was more or less a few seconds after .00. Yeah, I didn't manage to vote as Kuru was really on top of the hour. But that was in no way planned, but just a mistake (answering to Lottie at the last minute). That simple.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#3 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Btw.
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Okay. 'nuff of that. On other issues: I just remembered I did make a tally of the votes yesterDay - so here... D3 voting .48 Eomer -> Lottie .49 Sally -> Lottie 2 .49 Lalaith -> Lottie 3 .54 Brinniel -> Eönwe .54 Legate -> Boro .56 Lottie -> Boro 2 .56 Nerwen -> Nog .58 Eönwe -> Nog 2 .59 Shasta -> Legate + voter empowerment: Eönwe 2 EDIT: Triple-posting - will be away now then.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#4 | ||
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Ok Nogs, I can actually see a scenario too where you are innocent, but why the exciting drama of holding back on your vote til the last minute - only to vote for Eonwe - a vote which, as far as you knew, if you were innocent, would make no difference?
Why say this to Eonwe two hours before deadline: Quote:
And what was this supposed to mean? Quote:
Anyway one thing is clear from all of this that Eonwe's idea from early yesterDay, of slicing us down into little portions for the Dead to choose from, really is not wise, as it gives the wolves too much of a pointer on who will get empowered and thus where to steer the lynching. Eonwe's "small portions" plan would have left the Dead, incidentally, with a choice of Boro, Brinn or Eomer. As they chose Brinn anyway, this doesn't look hugely incriminating for Eonwe as being an attempt at wolf-steering the Dead empowerment, but still....
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling Last edited by Lalaith; 07-17-2017 at 02:32 AM. Reason: x-post with Nogrod and replacing "she" with "Lottie" for clarification |
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#5 | ||||
Wisest of the Noldor
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#6 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Ok now I must really get on with my actual RL work for a bit.
But before I go...the list for the Dead. (sorry dead Mith, hope this doesn't rile you!) There should be enough innocents in the dead thread to ensure a vote on Lottie so would it be better (given the empowerment issues I highlighted earlier) to make the 'none of the above' group smaller than the other two? I'm using Kuru's Living list here btw: Lottie prey Nerwen Boromir88 Shastanis Althreduin satansaloser2005 Lottie predator Eomer of the Rohirrim Lalaith Legate of Amon Lanc Eönwë None of the above Nogrod Brinniel We could even just divide us into two groups of five, prey and predator, and tell the dead not to empower anyone if there has been a 'none of the above' issue?
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#7 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
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So no, I am not misrepresenting you. I will also point out that it was your single-minded focus on the Dead Thread during the last couple of hours that made me re-consider my suspicion of you, precisely because it seemed a bit foolhardy for a wolf. Quote:
Edit: added comment.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 07-17-2017 at 04:02 AM. |
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#8 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Forewarning, I may not be around as much toDay as normally, because for large part, the time when I will have most time to play WW would be when I'm at work, throughout the, like, next seven hours or so. I hope to be back also a few hours before DL, but not for very long. In any case my posts may be shorter (ha, ha).
Anyway, as for now. I agree with that Mith was widely unsuspected and it would make sense if she was meant to be a no-trace kill. One option is that the Wolves are really getting suspected and killing other people would bring them into the spotlight. More interestingly, now that we can assume Zil's innocence, we can try to look back at events related to him at least with some knowledge. The bandwagon for him, for example, makes it clear that it was a "safe space" for Wolves to contribute to, i.e. being sure they would not vote for a fellow Wolf (but at the same time, casting a vote outside it was "safe space" in the sense that such a vote would not be linked to lynching an innocent. It was only less safe because it wasn't so dead clear yet at that time who was going to get the votes). Zil's spat with Nerwen is another thing, because now we know his retaliation was genuine; Nerwen's suspicion of him itself I am not sure of. I am growing wary of her again, I mean she has so far been moving around basically unsuspected for most of the time. Then again, it's her. Otherwise: I am all for using the list Lalaith now provided. We should shuffle things up anyway so that it's not still the same list. I am also for the Dead checking Lottie next. The communication seems to work (hopefully), so let's keep it that way. Speaking of communicating with Dead, I am still wary of Nogrod. His replies at the end of yesterDay looked genuine, but upon re-thinking, in the big picture, his one-track distraction and dismissing the communication with the Dead stands. In any case, I hope to read more of him when it comes to discussing people etc. Boro's "confession" in the beginning of toDay pinged my radar as "I used to be a person willing to die, but recently I have been converted into a Wolf, so I don't want to die anymore". Anyway. I agree with Nerwen that the Days are passing on, and we should make sure we lynch a Wolf, as it is theoretically possible we have four baddies here (especially now that effectively, we can assume except for Lottie that all the dead were innocents). EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#9 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Anyone else think the narration is pretty strange today?
Mithalwen was apparently taking the same route as the escapee; many powers swirling around them. If there were 3 wolves among us then then there could be no wolf kill. EW would have to scry. GW might have sent Mith to the dead thread for her to come back tomorrow.
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#10 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Gah! That's the second time I say the wrong thing. I mean, of course, that there could be no 4th wolf created.
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#11 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#12 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 07-17-2017 at 07:41 AM. Reason: fixed quotes |
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#13 | ||
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Maybe it's selfish of me, but I'm pretty uncomfortable with Lalaith's list:
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Of course, this may just be coincidence, but in any case, I'd prefer either a 3/3/3 (with one 4) or 5/5 split (with the hope that there was no wolf-sacrifice) better. Also, has anyone considered that Mith's death might not be a wolf-kill but rather a Ranger save and the GW assigning a Stranger that Leaves? And even if it's not, this is a possibility we should be aware of as the Days continue. edit: x-ed since my last post. Nice to see that someone else (Eomer) also had the same idea!
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#14 |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Eonwe, I agree it's not a good idea to have two people alone in a category who both have the same likely voting pattern. Quite happy to mix the list (eg by swapping you and Nog?).
I think the 'none of the above' category is very unlikely which is why I suggested it being small, and giving the Dead more choice for the two more likely categories. What I'm trying to avoid is the likelihood of giving the Dead the Hobson's Choice of empowering one of three baddies....and of giving the wolves too easy a guess about who will be empowered....
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#15 | |
Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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My point was that the wolves already know Zil is innocent because they would know he wasn't a wolf...and they would also know that the Dead, yesterDay were all innocents (Morsul, Lommy, Zil) and would thus all try to be helpful. They would therefore also know that the empowerment vote would be one of Boro, Brinn, Eomer, Eonwe or me.
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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#16 |
Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Eonwe, you said it much clearer than I was able to - I'm getting completely muddled up with nightly activities!
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#17 | |
Laconic Loreman
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++Legate Call it retaliation voting, but the way I see I'm not close to evening the score. He's got a 3 vote head start on me. The tunnel focus is rather unusual and strange from Legate. I'm not going to deny my early intentionally trying to be suspicious so I can have a good, relaxing time with the dead. Going to blame someone who spends most of his days with a cubic ton of pressuring responsibilities, just wanting to be silly and fun for a while, try to take it easy? The sudden shift is I have a conscience and early on if I'm going to be random, possibly destructive (although I'm not sure how? I'm not the one who's tried to undermine communicating with the dead thread) then it would only be to myself. As more folks drop like flies, if I continued to be self-destructive I would be ultimately harming the GW efforts...and that's not something even silly me wants to do. I'm going to whine and complain how I never die in these games, but it is what it is. You should have to admit yourself, Legate, the switch I've done was really stinkin' obvious. Not that I wouldn't be trying to play mind games as a wolf, but the confession you say that pinged your radar doesn't make sense if I were a wolf. First I'm a crazy sacrificial wolf, just trying to be disruptive...and suddenly I get turned into a wolf a 2nd time and decide I don't want to be the sacrificial wolf?
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Fenris Penguin
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#18 | |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#19 | |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Eomer (G) --> Lottie Sally (U) --> Lottie (2) Lalaith (G) --> Lottie (3) Brinn (G) --> Eonwe Legate (E) --> Boro Lottie (E) --> Boro (2) Nerwen (E) --> Nog Eonwe (G) --> Nog (2) Shasta (U) --> Legate (Nog (U) --> Eonwe)
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