Werewolf CXII - Dueling Wizards III - The Living Thread

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm back! And very suspicious of everyone.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm back! And very suspicious of everyone.

Word.

(And I was hoping to go to sleep early finally this Day... but we were watching GoT with a buch of people - Legate and Lommy icluded.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Now we're at the business end of the game, where everyone appears to have acted suspiciously, I'm becoming more and more inclined to vote based on who I would have picked were I the EW. Not very scientific, but there you go.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I get the meta reasoning that Eönwë might have been chosen as a wolf, but without some better indication, I think it's really odd to try to lynch someone who has arguably been the single most productive player.

I agree that suspecting someone on the sole grounds that they could make a good wolf conversion candidate is not a good enough reason to want to lynch them. My reason for voting for Eonwe yesterDay was because I found his Inzil vote suspicious combined with his extended focus on the Dead Thread.

I think it's also good to keep in mind that just because someone is the most productive player, it doesn't make them more innocent. I've found in many WW games that the most productive players turned out to be wolves.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I think it's also good to keep in mind that just because someone is the most productive player, it doesn't make them more innocent. I've found in many WW games that the most productive players turned out to be wolves.

Exactly. And no, I'm not wishing to go into the debate of "what it means to be productive" - but to say I'd use a different term here with Eönwe. We'll probably all understand in a roundabout way well enough what we are talking here.

What makes me worried about Nerwen (among some other things) is that she uses the fact that someone discusses a lot of some general or strategic issues as a sign of being a goodie with Eönwe and as a sign of being a baddie with me. And she also says I'm suspicious because I talk about other things than suspicions & voting near the DL, which actually isn't the case - but which is the case most obviously with Eönwe.

So arguments seem to be to her only tools to help clear Eönwe and to cast shadow on me - whatever the logic of her defences / accusations or the truthfulness of them is. We innocents need to actually try find the direction they're pointing at - we do not know who it's okay to lynch and who isn't. The evil on the other hand can always just try and see what kind of argument s/he could use in any given circumstance to further her/his own evil agenda.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You're just saying that, Brinniel, because you would obviously have been chosen by every one of us by now.

Anyway, we have to try and second-guess our enemy.

Just look at the list of The Living:

Nerwen
Boromir88
Shastanis Althreduin
satansaloser2005
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Eönwë
Nogrod
Brinniel

That is what I would call 'loudmouth-heavy'; it's only being balanced somewhat by Shasta & Sally being quieter than normal. Add the lynchees to this: Inzil fits in nicely; and Loslote certainly got stuck right in.

There's one or two quieter types in there. What I need to consider is: how safe is the quiet wolf in this place?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Chin up Lal, we're bound to get info at some point. Still got the duel to come. And the smaller the village gets the more likely we are to bag one of these hideous wolves.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

There's one or two quieter types in there. What I need to consider is: how safe is the quiet wolf in this place?

That's actually a pretty good point. Which brings me back to my thoughts earlier on regarding Brinniel, Mith, and Sally. Okay, now Mith is dead, plus Brinniel isn't really that quiet anymore. Problem is, it's really difficult to keep track of people when they are not posting much. Like Sally hasn't posted practically anything toDay. (Nor much before, for that matter.) But exactly that kind of tactic could keep her completely off everyone's radar.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[Nogrod]

I think I have problem following most everyone's track... *

I have no chance of doing this toDay, but will try to do it toMorrow if I'm still around - if I'm not, I suggest someone does it - or some people do it collectively (and if someone already has this kind of a list, please share it).

So looking back to everyone alive to see whom they have actually voiced suspicion over. I mean voiced a suspicion, not anything like "X is always suspicious" or first Day "you must be a wolf" -banter. But like actually declaring one suspects some another person X.

I'll bet that most evil can be found from among those who have not voiced open suspicions on anyone or have made them of only one or few people - possibly such whom others have voiced suspicions already. Voicing open suspicions is always dangerous and suspecting many draws you near the gallows as people, quite naturally, feel bad about it and, if innocent, start to see evil in the suspecter (or if evil can use it as a reason to vote back - or at least suspect that person back).

Also seeing all the "real suspicions" might help to build a larger picture of relations, which there sure are already now. Just looking at the voting patterns is not that productive, especially as we don't know things like we normally would do after lynchings.

So that's a suggestion for toMorrow.

Now thinking of voting...


EDIT: The beginning is an answer to this by Legate: "Problem is, it's really difficult to keep track of people when they are not posting much."
EDIT2: I'll promise to stop editing...

[Brinniel]

Nogrod, I don't think you have a very valid excuse for voting late. After all, you were around a lot yesterDay and if you were truly unsure of who to vote, you could've spent more time thinking about other villagers rather than place so much attention on the Dead Thread and other distracting subjects. I mean really, those scenario posts might've been hilarious early Day One, but in the final hours of Day 3, I just found them to be a headache and waste of time getting through while trying to catch up on so many posts.

The problem with Nogrod is that I do find his behavior suspicious, but then I wonder if maybe he really is just an innocent allowing himself to get muddled up with the complexities of the game. If he is innocent, he makes to be very easy lynch candidate for the baddies.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

well he could have been a wolf trying to get into the Dead Thread early to mess it up...

I'm yet to be convinced on why would the wolves want to be there? They win with the numbers here. And the communication is at the paper-telephone level already without them, so what's the real gain - especially as they will be totally outnumbered there in a Day or two from the beginning of the game?*

It is possible some people actually thought the evil side would like to put one of them there though. But I'd presume the EW had actually thought that out.

So yes, he could have been, but I do doubt it.


* EDIT: noticed a place for misinterpretation here - the added edit is underlined.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm very suspicious of Boro too, mostly because I'm thinking that the EW will reckon if he survived the start of this game then he'd survive anything. I'm wary of Nogrod too but there's something making me hesitate jumping on that bandwagon.

I have a very strong feeling that Nerwen is involved somehow but I don't want to guess how just yet. Wish I knew Loslote's role right now...

Lalaith and Brinniel are just too.... I don't even know the word, just too themselves...

Still the only one I'm leaning innocent on is Eonwe, and that of course might have changed since yesterday!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also finally back here and want to vote soon and sleep soon.

Even though I am still suspicious of Nog, his last post makes me waver again, because some of it sounds very genuine. At the same time Boro's again rather re-kindled my suspicion of him. I mean, that talk about "I am not even close to evening up the score", what kind of a talk is that? Who cares about retaliation, but why would you justify your vote by saying "you voted for me this many times, so I have to do the same"? Again, what absolutely puzzles me about Boro is that this behavior does not make any sense. Like not even for a Wolf. But for whom then? I mean if a Cobbler existed, I would be fine. But if the circumstances in this game are either that you are innocent or a Wolf or EW, then after eliminating the basic possibilities that at least I don't think you would act this way if you had an important good role, then its more logical to assume you have a bad role.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm not going to deny my early intentionally trying to be suspicious so I can have a good, relaxing time with the dead. Going to blame someone who spends most of his days with a cubic ton of pressuring responsibilities, just wanting to be silly and fun for a while, try to take it easy? The sudden shift is I have a conscience and early on if I'm going to be random, possibly destructive (although I'm not sure how? I'm not the one who's tried to undermine communicating with the dead thread) then it would only be to myself. As more folks drop like flies, if I continued to be self-destructive I would be ultimately harming the GW efforts...and that's not something even silly me wants to do. I'm going to whine and complain how I never die in these games, but it is what it is.

Well if you put it that way, that isn't the issue, I'd perfectly understand that. However...

Originally Posted by Boro

You should have to admit yourself, Legate, the switch I've done was really stinkin' obvious. Not that I wouldn't be trying to play mind games as a wolf, but the confession you say that pinged your radar doesn't make sense if I were a wolf. First I'm a crazy sacrificial wolf, just trying to be disruptive...and suddenly I get turned into a wolf a 2nd time and decide I don't want to be the sacrificial wolf?

Well if you had been turned, you wouldn't have much of a choice, right? I don't know, I was just puzzled from the start by your behavior (but ok, yes, we've been through it), but I remember how you tend to play (or at least tended to play; it's true it has been some time and styles can change) when innocent, and neither of these behaviors simply fit that. I am used to inquisitive Boro poking people, sometimes even to the point where it becomes visible if they bend or break, but this was just a completely different game than what I am used to from you. The "suicidal tendencies" looked as if you were being played by Nilpaurion Felagund or something (but ok, you've explained that, or at least claim that). But your behavior simply goes over my head here. And yes, part of me has been thinking that for a long time that I should have probably given up on that. But another part of me is that well, if there is someone who is acting clearly fishy - in clearest sense of the word - it was you, so getting you off the hook just because I don't know what to think about it is not really an answer.

Agh. Gotta think.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog, Lal, Eo, Brinniel and some...