Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, first - there already so many posts toDay, and some struck me immediately, so...

Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info.

My problem with yesterDay's voting is that half the village (this size) voted for G55 or Brinn, so that says very little. At least, until we know who Brinn is. *glances ominously in her direction* - But black humour aside, that is a fact, and that was the first thing I thought of the moment G55 was lynched and revealed to be a Cobbler. Whatever Brinn is, G55 just bought the WWs an extra Day during which we know nothing.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

I mentioned this above, and yes - unlike a quarantined Wolf, G55 doesn't know who the WWs are, so her vote will also not give much info (the plus side is that it may unexpectedly help the village, but that's pure chance).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

A lot to unpack, but that could have gone much worse than how it turned out. First thought is it must be a cruel wolf pack to put G55 and Rikae together in the QT after their arguments yesterday.

My thoughts exactly. I hope it's bearable.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Oh I'd so love to be a fly on the wall of the QT now.

I have been thinking what kind of person, even if they are a Wolf, could be so cruel to send Rikae there with G55. Now I have one suspect.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.

You are operating awfully close to the idea as if you somehow knew Brinn to be innocent. Objectively, the idea of Wolves keeping loud distracting player vs quiet one makes sense, but your whole theory stands on the idea that Brinn would have to be not one of them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger.

Well, I wasn't. Or there wasn't time for me to start suddenly weighing them and re-reading their posts. Brinn was the only one from those who I was considering to vote for before (see my list with zones from just before that). The choice, out of those who were likely to get lynched, was obvious.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On another note, Steve's vote was odd, to say the least. It's natural to have been frustrated by Urwen's lack of reasoning (I was), but there was no chance she would be lynched.

I don't know. I was a bit tempted to vote Urwen then myself (but it goes against my principle - I would usually give a "no show" first-time player one Day pass), and there still were more people who hadn't voted at that point. Anything was possible.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Rikae seems like an obvious choice, having been in a public spat with a traitor and under all circumstances a capacity they would not want around, so we seem to have unadventurous and downright boring wolves.

That was my first impression too. The added value is that either the Wolves are really heartless with sick sense of humour (after the fight the two had, sending them in together), or (I'd rather hope, because FIVE people with zero empathy?!?) perhaps nice Wolves who hope that on the QT, G55 might apologise to Rikae and Rikae might forgive her and then they can share a... drink of... desinfectant, probably.

I am absolutely confused by Mac's tinfoilhatting post at the moment, so maybe I'll leave it for the morning when I can process it with fresh braaaains.

EDIT: x-ed basically since my last. But ok, going to sleep on it for now.

[Urwen]

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Urwen

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

Are you going to speak plainly, or stay in "cryptic mode" indefinitely?

x/d with Lhuna

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

[Kitanna]

There is so much to unpack. I'm not even sure how I want to begin.
There's a lot of fairly vocal people I barely had a chance to look at yesterday. And yet, at the same time there's those flying under the radar who I haven't spared a second thought for. Well, I'm here and catching up on end of Day shenanigans and everything going on today now that G55 and Rikae have shed their mortal coils.

[Eönwë]

Maybe I'm just paranoid and seeing possible wolf-groups everywhere, but after their coordinated votes yesterDay and this post:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

That was some Day 1! I'm glad now that we weren't able to swing the vote, but I do think it's worth looking at those late votes. I know Shasta guessed that G55 was a cobbler, and Infectors might've guessed too, but they didn't know either, and I'm sure they wouldn't have rushed to save someone who claimed to be the Ranger if they had any plausible deniability...

Not sure I agree with this – not rushing to save a self-proclaimed Ranger if you have the chance would be next to suicidal for a wolf. For the same reason, I don’t really follow Boro’s reasoning here –

Originally Posted by Boro

sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.

I don’t think we can read anything into Sally’s vote one way or another. She voted to save a self-proclaimed Gifted a few minutes before DL, which to me doesn’t say anything about her alignment - regardless of what Brinn is.

Originally Posted by Mac

(This is in response to a point of mine against Huin.) Me neither, necessarily. But it’s a plausible wolf tactic to say someone looks innocent while at the same time inviting others to make their case for guilt.

Ah, got it now. That’s fair enough.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think it's very interesting that Legate really didn't seem interested at all in the G55-Pitch options at the deadline yesterDay. In his last post before voting, he throws out Brinn, Kit, and Greenie as options, and then votes the only viable candidate there, but doesn't really talk about the other choices at all. It's not a huge thing, but it does kind of ping my radar as something a wolf might do if he wants to steer the vote a little bit, but doesn't want to look suspicious and isn't as invested as he would be if a wolf were actually in danger.

Not sure if this is valid – as I recall, Legate had previously stated that he didn’t suspect G55 or Pitch, so him not finding them interesting as potential lynchees doesn’t strike me as particularly suspicious.

Originally Posted by Mac

PS: Huin... I now have Cobbler55 stuck in my head to the tune of Mambo No.5. Why did you do this to me??

Nooooooooooooooo!

Originally Posted by Boro

Agreed it's a terribly bad throw away vote sure.

But had I been able to and not already voted, when I read Steve's vote I thought I would be very tempted to do the same thing. I thought Urwen's vote was unsporty and even though G55 turned out cobbler, I had same exact reaction as Steve's. Looked like Urwen had no interest in being helpful.

If G55 turned out Ranger, I would be feeling a lot different about Steve's throw away.

Why? I’m a little uneasy about Eonwe’s vote too as he’s been very cautious in general and that vote was, as Lommy and Lottie have pointed out, an easy way to keep his hands clean. But whether G55 was the cobbler or the ranger shouldn’t really impact an assessment of Eonwe because an Eonwolf wouldn’t know what she was, aside from “not wolf”.

Both Eonwe and Lalaith speculate on whether G55 thought Brinn was a wolf or not. Personally I don’t think this matters one way or another as the cobbler doesn’t have any more knowledge about anyone’s roles than an ordo would.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Lottie is what I call a helpful player, which doesn't point either way alone. However, her suspicions of Pitch/G55 stayed pretty consistent throughout the Day so I don't find her vote suspicious. And her reasoning for the wolves to join the bandwagon to vote me is something I agree with. I think I recall being fooled by Lottie, so I'll remain cautious, but right now I'm leaning innocent.

Hm. I’m not sure how consistent equals innocent.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Questions Steve's votes. Guys, it's been a long time, but who the frack is Steve in all this? Eonwe? Or is there a Steve I can't see posts from?!

Steve = Eonwe. Don’t ask.

I’ll be back trying to unpick some of the Rikae-Brinn-Mac tangle next.

[THE Ka]

Firstly, this is going to be a wall of text. Secondly, since I had a little more time than Day 1, I wanted to go back and examine the events around Rikae’s infamous ‘wolf-bait’, sans G55 argument.

Originally Posted by Rikae Post #69: The ‘bait-post’

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

Mac –

Originally Posted by Rikae Post #121

I don't know. He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.

Going back and looking over Rikae’s ‘bait-post’, this was especially insightful. Rikae speculates from Mac’s tone and approach that they’re either just happy to be playing again, or the quote given above. If you looked at some of Mac’s earlier posts on face value alone (for lie detecting in WW we don’t have the benefit of ‘face’ language), they’re using contractions, there is very little distance from who their subject is in their lists (using names directly, interspersed with memories/gossip, etc.), etc. They perhaps don’t omit everything and have some extraneous details here and there to roleplay a little with others, but when confronted on this, they cooperate with the questioning. It’s fun to be mysterious, to play, but the behavior above isn’t quite the one of someone trying to hide in the corner nor spend all their mental effort meticulously repeating an alibi.
I don’t think I’ve played with Macalaure in WW before, so I really don’t have the benefit of knowing their play style like others do, but I do know enough basics of looking for lying behavior and I’m not really seeing it in these posts. I didn’t see the logic entirely when players were trying to decide to make a Macwagon (another reason is that term alone is making me think of this: and then my mind just wants to make jokes the entire time…) the first Day.

G55 – Welp, not much to say here since their role was revealed to us yesterDay and we’ve spent most of that time discussing them. Instead, I’d rather spend time looking at who they were casually sniffing around after their debate with Rikae. It’s obvious now that the fake-vote idea was their bait for both villagers and wolves to see not really who, but how players would react and who was going to react the most.

Legate, of course, whom G55 later tried to pin the idea on, showed the most genuine interest in the idea and in usual fashion (not really blaming, I did the same with my curiosity over QT because it was new/exciting/untested), began to work further from the groundwork G55 laid out and tried to figure out why. Here I do have the benefit of having played with Legate before a few times and the fact that he is willing to answer confrontations about his sudden interest speaks genuinely to his past playing behavior. Granted, its been years since we’ve both had a chance to play a game together so he may have changed a few of his habits, but this one isn’t odd for his usual neck-out and stream-of-consciousness extrapolations.

Pitch – This one… I’ve been trying to read for awhile now. I’ve even agreed with them on occasion when they’ve given small isolated replies. Now to see how they interacted with Rikae and what it shows.

Post #98 – Not directly to Rikae, but addresses questions from when they were out. Defends why they pressured Legate over the interest in the fake-vote idea. Asks why all the worry over waiting for the QT vote – it could be just as flawed as the GT result that Day.

Post #100 – Confronts Mac, why did you find my pin on Legate odd when you just said so yourself.

Post #107 – Confronts G55 on twisting words over debate about QT vote. Mention of my question to Legate and confusion over fake-votes/no-votes vs regular deadline.
(To Pitch: I saw your question and re-read my earlier post. I meant ‘bunk’ as in slang for ‘worthless’/’knock-off’/’obvious lie’. Not the other ‘bunk’…har, har)

Post(s) #114,118: Analysis on multiple players. #118 mention of Rikae: Seems usual self.

Post #120 – Reply to Hui:

I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.

…
This response I found the far more reasonable so far. Co-conspirators typically don’t exclusively interact with one another, especially when they’re trying to tell ‘the tale’ and collaborate, because they’re usually too busy trying to put what they rehearsed before into use and for safety. They’re not going to expend the effort to elaborate each other’s stories (because, surprise, one might’ve had to change theirs to fit the situation and now they’re out of sync). Two truthful people asked a question about an event are going to naturally reconstruct what they shared together and have no difficulty being interactive.
…

Post #163: Echoes some of the other’s suspicions on a possible wolf between Rikae, Brinn, Kit, and Lottie.

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really? ). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

…
Makes a line up and then eliminates one along with their main confrontation. Though in the context this presents a reasonable choice (plenty of others acted or said the same about G55/Rikae debate). Could have included Rikae in the list anyways as a demonstration that they were involved with the other three, but while Brinn and Lottie were hovering around the G55/Rikae debate, Kit was not directly in it. Kit was however connected to the G-L-P by being it’s main arbiter when it came to trying to find a possible wolf between the three.

My main question is, unless I’m just tired and missing it, why Kit in this specific grouping?
….

Post #171: Confronts Brinn on casually suspecting Kit for pushing for wolves in G-L-P. Brings up they only did so after Mac.
(Rikae by this point previously had already voted for Brinn).

Post #174: Responds to Rune, admits that they are flip flopping on suspicion on G55 again. Notes suspicion on Eonwe’s heightened agreeableness.

Post #210: Vote post. Votes for Brinn with reasoning:

Picked suspects from Rikae's shortlist, then backed off when attention turned away from the LPG triangle, and when she got suspected for this she tried to shift the suspicion to Kitanna, who had been more or less in the same camp.

Question I’m wondering, is why didn’t Pitch go with Kit given the previous amount of information and continued suspicion they had on their sudden hunt for wolves among them, Legate, and G55? They admit their uncertainty on G55 previously and Rikae’s possible innocence, but then go with Rikae’s list of fellow accused, swap out Mac, and then include Brinn (why not Lottie as well?).

Onto another note:

Post #305 -

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Except wolves know all day that they have to make up the reasoning for a vote for an innocent and can plan for it accordingly.

That’s to be expected and wolves would definitely know that themselves… and then act in contrast. Similar to when you’re examining someone on an event, the liar needs to make a story of what they did and why for protection, but at the same time they’re watching you very closely because they don’t know what facts you have about them.

There’s also the fact that wolves don’t know who the cobbler is on Day 1 any more than every other role. Once the cobbler starts disrupting though, the wolves are going to study it closely. Not for the cobbler, but who is on the sidelines with whoever the cobbler is arguing with. When they see an opinion of the situation start to form from the spectators, they have to adapt their plan and story rather quickly. If a wolf can’t do so, they need a temporary shelter until they can write their reasoning up why. If this is before a bandwagon forms, they’re quickly joining either side of a good ol’ fashioned cobbler debate and when asked about it later, feign the same fears as a villager, ‘oh, they were just so adamant and I didn’t know if either was correct, but I didn’t want to be singled out for doing nothing so I panicked and said enough to contribute.’ This can later be used as a convincing means of why they might back-peddle, saying they have more evidence now that they’re not under attack, etc.

When pressed later though, if someone is a villager, they’re going to defend themselves. It might not even be the exact same way they told you the first time, but the difference is they’ll be more eager to tell you to clear themselves.

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

If a wolf was defending themselves, they’d of made a script or perhaps several to accommodate for this. You could ask a wolf trying to hide to explain themselves and you’ll get a lot of words, very direct, but not entirely what you asked. Another is the ‘duping delight’ of WW, usually the confident little glimmer in responses ‘you can ask/vote however you want’ or ‘it’s whatever you make of it’, which puts the blame of ‘mean interrogator’ on who’s pressing for an explanation.

We definitely saw this with Rikae to G55, but surprisingly a few times with G55 to a few others they were questioning afterwards.



On that note, it’s past midnight in my time zone and I should have already been in bed, but I wanted to look over who was hovering around Rikae’s list a little more. I’ll be back tomorrow, hopefully early enough to catch up everyone’s posts before I make a vote.

[Kath]

That was a crazy end to Day 1. After talk of fake votes we then end up with a fake reveal! At least the village might be quieter with the Cobbler gone, but I dread to think how many QT posts there will end up being ...

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

Just going through yesterDay's votes. Have skimmed toDay but not read properly so sorry if things have already been mentioned/answered.

YesterDay's vote tally - I've put known roles in bold in the votes themselves, otherwise I've bolded as normal when talking about it:
Lhuna -> Lhuna

Rikae -> Brinniel (For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap.) ~ Rikae

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

A lot of Rikae's posts are understandably largely debate with G55, but this one seems to put forward most of their opinions from the Day. They are right about the supposed Brinn-wagon, other Brinn voters don't appear until a while later. Six other votes were cast before THE Ka, Rune, Legate and sally then also vote for Brinn. They mention Inzil and Lottie's votes being suspiciously placed in terms of going against a Brinn-wagon, but actually they were also after Shasta and Kitanna had just made it 3 votes for Pitch as opposed to 2 votes for Brinn, so they had also had the same effect.

G55 -> Rikae

Boro -> Pitchwife

Urwen -> G55

Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2

Kath -> G55 2

Shasta -> Pitchwife 2 (I'm jerking the reins a bit here) ~ Shasta

I'd be interested to know a bit more about this vote, Shasta. This vote created a three way tie at the time between Pitch, G55 and Brinn. It's certainly consistent with his earlier suspicions, I just wonder why Pitch over Brinn at this point, especially with the comment at the point of vote as well.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Of those with votes, I won't vote for Rikae, could vote for Brinn or Pitch, and probably won't be voting for G55 unless it's to save someone I think is innocent.

From here, the cross posting of votes makes things difficult. The next vote I would normally consider more carefully, as it was the first to put anyone up to three votes, but it was cross-posted and it isn't clear with how many previous posts.

Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3

Inzil -> G55 3

Same issue - this was cross posted. So Inzil didn't know Kit had made it 3 for Pitch at the time he made it 3 for G55. So really, this is the vote that technically first took someone into the lead for the lynch.

Originally Posted by Inzil

There's no one else I would want at this point, and it could say a lot about Legate, Pitch, and Rikae.

I'd like to know what he now thinks this says about Legate and Pitch, especially in relation to knowing Rikae's role now.

Lottie -> G55 4

Not a cross posted vote and so knows this vote puts G55 into prime position for the lynch.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think this lynch gives us the most information going forward, and I would be very surprised if she turns out to be innocent.

She earlier agreed with Kitanna about the G-L-P trio looking wolfy.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too. I tend to be more suspicious of G55 and Pitch at first glance, but I've had a very hard time getting a good feel on Legate.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Pitch brings up one of G55's first posts, which has been commented on before, and throws a bit of suspicion her way. This looks to me like Pitch doesn't want to be tied to G55 or seen as defending her, and it makes me more likely to believe Huin's hypothesis that they might both be wolves.

Gets drawn into the G55/Rikae stuff, and also doesn't like that G55 says Kitanna seems tense. Continues to feel G55 and Pitch may be a wolf pair.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

Ok, so this all seems very consistent and I would really now like to know what she thinks about Pitch given G55 turned out to be a Cobbler and not a wolf. Also, as I was reading through, both her own posts and posts about her seem to somehow make her and Kitanna a pair, I guess from when she followed on the G-L-P idea from Kitanna.

Greenie -> Macalaure

Cross posted with the previous 4 votes. So at this point, Greenie thought Brinn and G55 had 2, Rikae, Pitch and Lhuna had one. An interesting point at which to throw in a new name. It's for coming up with an argument against Brinn sort of on the spot and then backdating said argument to an earlier post, I think. It's interesting coming after her earlier post:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy.

So one post from Mac ended up changing her from Brinn (who had 2 votes at this point) to Mac. And actually, she kind of agreed with Mac about Brinn's suspicious post:

Originally Posted by Greenie

Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.

So is the suspicion of Mac because he's almost gone on the same reasoning but his seems contrived opposed to hers? It's a less interesting placement for a new name on the list than it could have been due to the cross posting but still was the only other new name besides Urwen.

THE Ka -> Brinniel 3

Ok, not a cross posted vote so knows G55 is already on 4. She seemed to be debating between Brinn and Lottie.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.

So she had pretty much settled on Brinn as a vote, but it also would have been a strange time to put Lottie into the mix anyway.

Eönwë -> Urwen

I don't like this vote, just as I didn't like Urwen's in the first place. He talks about Zil, Brinn and Lommy all being suspicious, and then plumps for someone totally unrelated. 13 votes had been cast with 8 remaining at this point. No one liked Urwen's vote, but did Eonwe really think this was going somewhere?

Rune -> Brinniel 4

Rune said this was cross posted with everyone from 244. I would like to know if that includes 244 because that was Kit's vote for Brinn. Is Rune pushing up Brinn to tie with G55 here or did he not know that?

Lommy -> G55 5

No cross voting so knew she was putting G55 into the lead and adds the comment:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Let's make this more interesting then

Which is indeed interesting ... I would very much like to know what she was thinking with this.

Hui -> G55 6

Hui clearly stated he wanted to avoid Brinn getting lynched and so chose G55 because she had the higher vote tally. It's a bold statement to make at a point where no roles were known. What made him think Brinn was definitely worth saving?

Legate -> Brinniel 5

Out of the options, which by now are realistically Brinn, G55, Pitch - definitely Brinn. Earlier thought Pitch might be Cobbler and thought G55 was playing in her usual style. Kitanna would have been his fake vote. By the time it got to real voting, this would have been a real throwaway so not going with it does make sense. Brinn is the highest up in his suspicions list so this vote does seem logical.

Mac -> Brinniel 6

Not a cross post, knows he's tying Brinn, knows this doesn't mean she's the lynch.

Brinn -> G55 7

Little to read from 'I have to save myself'. An innocent knows they're an innocent, doesn't know what G55 is, has to save themselves. A wolf knows they're guilty, knows G55 is an innocent, has to save themselves!

Sally -> Brinniel 7

This was the only vote after the reveal and again little to read from it. An innocent would be desperate to save the Ranger, a wolf would be desperate to be seen that they were trying to save the Ranger.

Lalaith - no vote

Lal, in the interests of the fact that the Day could have ended really differently, who would you have voted for there? I know it's with hindsight, but would still be interesting!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Kath

Rune said this was cross posted with everyone from 244. I would like to know if that includes 244 because that was Kit's vote for Brinn. Is Rune pushing up Brinn to tie with G55 here or did he not know that?

I believe I was aware of post 244 prior to starting typing. However when I cast my vote I was not aware of the exact number of votes for each person. I hope that answers your question.

[Kath]

Oh my goodness RL stuff has meant time has really got away from me toDay. This is going to have to be quicker than I would like.

Rikae surely had to be a suspected Gifted kill, I simply can't see the point of it otherwise, so all these 'I'm being framed' theories make no sense to me. Mac thinking he's being framed, Inzil thinking there could be a frame related to Brinn, Brinn suggesting it was a frame on her

Originally Posted by Inzil

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after them. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

(I edited Inzil's words for pronouns there). Inzil agrees it seems.

Whereas Lottie:

Originally Posted by Lottie

My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.

Also a valid argument, I just feel that so early in the game the wolves can't afford to not be aiming at Gifteds.

Originally Posted by Hui

The fact that so few people commented on it as it was ongoing surprises me - it felt like such a big thing! But it was mostly just a vocal Cobbler doing her best to incite a flame war.

I'll be honest and say it's something I've seen before with at least Rikae and I think that's true of a few players here.

Originally Posted by Hui

What jumped out to me from that? I think Pitchwife is as suspicious as all get-out, for when and how he voiced his suspicions and placed his vote. Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides). Both Legate and Lottie talk about lynching Brinn for information, which I don't much like on a Day 1 this busy. And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

Is all this based on simply the fact that people went after Brinn? Given we don't know her role can such firm suspicions really be drawn at this point. If she'd been lynched and had turned out to be innocent I think this would all deserve a bit more credence.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I thought they looked dodgy at the end of yesterDay. After so heavily going after G55, they failed to vote that way. I wondered if a Rikae-wolf hadn't started picking up the Cobblerishness.

(I edited for pronouns again) This is about Rikae in response to Lottie saying Rikae would likely have been presumed innocent toDay. Interesting that even hypothetically there may have been two sides to this.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

Agreed, but at least it's only one vote in still a very large village.

Originally Posted by Mac

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

I'm not quite following the idea that G55 would have purposefully tried to associate with Mac if he is a wolf, when a Cobbler has no way of knowing who the wolves are, and presumably doesn't want to draw attention to anyone they think might be one.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious).

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

When I was going through the votes earlier this whole section involved a LOT of cross voting. Kitanna and Inzil's votes were cross posted and so Pitch and G55 were still equally in the running at that point. Lottie's vote was the first clear one to put G55 one ahead.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

I can't quite tell whether you're saying that Lottie defending herself makes you think she is more likely to be an innocent or not.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think she just wanted to 1) save herself possibly (and in doing so, sacrifice Brinn which just says she didn't think her a particularly likely wolf), 2) possibly flush out the real ranger, and 3) cause chaos. Why not do it earlier? Maybe she didn't think she'd actually get lynched, or it didn't cross her mind until then. I wouldn't spend too much time on this.

And at the point she revealed, there were two more people to vote, and as Lal has now said if she'd appeared in that moment she would likely have voted Brinn in order to save the 'Ranger' and along with sally's vote that would have been G55 saved to presumably continue causing chaos the following day. So it could have had big ramifications.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

It wasn't that the vote for Brinn didn't come with a decent argument, it was it looked so obviously like he didn't want to tangle himself in an LGP bandwagon. Looking at the voting table, when he voted G55 was ahead and his vote tied Brinn though it wouldn't have mattered since first vote of a tie dies. I'm not sure how cross-posted his vote was though. He may not have known that his would tie up votes.

About Mac. Not a cross vote as far as I could tell when I looked at all the votes, and yes even with the tie it wouldn't have caused Brinn to be lynched if those had been the last votes.

Originally Posted by Inzil

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

See this is why I didn't really mention Kit in the voting round up. It was one strong reaction, but given the assumptions it raised, not bringing that to the forefront seemed more sensible. I'm assuming you're thinking that her being alive still suggests the reaction isn't a sign of ... what I thought we all thought it was a sign of!

Originally Posted by Lottie

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.

I'm wary that any of this conversation really happened. And still seems to be happening even onto a new page after it was first brought up and then it was suggested that perhaps it be left alone.

[Thinlómien]

++Macalaure

Can I now say "let's make this more interesting"?

But seriously though, someone's gotta start, and it might as well be me since I have a clear main suspect and he's had a chance to defend himself but I didn't really buy it.

Will continue to pop in and out until the DL!


edit: xed with Legate

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

Shasta -> Pitchwife 2 (I'm jerking the reins a bit here) ~ Shasta

I'd be interested to know a bit more about this vote, Shasta. This vote created a three way tie at the time between Pitch, G55 and Brinn. It's certainly consistent with his earlier suspicions, I just wonder why Pitch over Brinn at this point, especially with the comment at the point of vote as well.

I was fine with either a Pitchwife or Brinniel lynch at the time, Pitch slightly more, so I voted early to tie them and keep them in the village crosshairs ("jerking the reins") - I didn't vote G55 because I thought she was the Cobbler and not a wolf.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lommy

If he's a wolf, I wager Brinn is one too. He pretty much admitted to trying to save her on Day1, which just sounded off to me.

Well we aren't both wolves since I'm not one, but I do agree his save of me seems off. As I stated before, maybe a wolf trying to come off as innocent by trying to save another innocent.

I could vote Hui, but I would prefer Inzil. Feeling less sure about Mac - his latest posts feel okay, but I keep going back and forth on this.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey whatever. I may just as well do something on time for once, and offer some options.

++Huinesoron

And perhaps not only the votes themselves, but also the current "setup of bandwagons" may get us some information.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, I've snatched a few minutes. To the people suspicious of me - it seems like most of this comes out of my misreading/over-simplifying things? I've taken the concrit on board, and will make sure to read more carefully toMorrow. (I have a bad habit of semi-skimming over bits of posts, and then forgetting that there was anything between the first and last points to catch my eye.) I welcome the scrutiny - all you'll find is that I've tried my best to follow the evidence.

ToMorrow is the weekend; not sure how that'll affect my posting, but I'll definitely try to answer any questions about my thinking.

(And to whoever said I sound like a salesman - probably! I've spent the past five or six years routinely sending emails with 'thank you, and best regards' at the end, it's a hard habit to break!)

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts) allays my worries). So since I now have to go:

++Macalaure

hS

[Boromir88]

On Lhuna...

Her smaller posts with shorter comments look innocent. Bringing up points about a ranger reveal and wondering why Lottie felt the need to say if Kit's a wolf and faking, the real ranger should not reveal.

Her longer posts looking at individuals and her suspects makes me more wary. To save Rune's eyes (a sentiment I try to agree with but doesn't always happen). I'll just link the post here..

I'm having trouble following what she's actually suspicious of Lommy of other than a comment when voting "let's make this interesting." Then it's just "You would know. Tricksy. False."

Then her post before her vote...here

Has Lommy in the suspects list, but there's no input.

I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out why Lhuna found Lommy suspicious at all.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

On Lhuna...

Her longer posts looking at individuals and her suspects makes me more wary. To save Rune's eyes (a sentiment I try to agree with but doesn't always happen). I'll just link the post here..

I'm having trouble following what she's actually suspicious of Lommy of other than a comment when voting "let's make this interesting." Then it's just "You would know. Tricksy. False."

Thank You!

Nice and concise post, also you make a valid point about Lhuna mentioning Lommy early on, but actually giving us basically nothing prior to the vote.

I will consider moving her to the neutral category on my epic list.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Leggie

I am absolutely confused by Mac's tinfoilhatting post at the moment, so maybe I'll leave it for the morning when I can process it with fresh braaaains.

He's a zombie. Get him!

Originally Posted by Leggie

That was my first impression too. The added value is that either the Wolves are really heartless with sick sense of humour (after the fight the two had, sending them in together), or (I'd rather hope, because FIVE people with zero empathy?!?) perhaps nice Wolves who hope that on the QT, G55 might apologise to Rikae and Rikae might forgive her and then they can share a... drink of... desinfectant, probably.

I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill. It may be because I've never played with a dead thread before and am yet to see how it affects actual game play, but wouldn't a dead thread game be like any other game in that the wolves would try to get rid of the Gifteds (particularly the Seer) during the Night? Maybe Rikae said something that made the Infected think they're the Seer. Unfortunately I don't have time at the moment to go through their posts yesterDay to see if anything like this sticks out.

Off to work, will be back with what's left of my brains later toDay. And apologies for the lack of name bolding. I don't know how anyone manages to make proper Downs posts on mobile!

Edit: crossposted with Urwen. Coming from someone who has committed game suicide more than once in the past, the sooner the better for the village. One less person to worry about.

[Brinniel]

Summaries starting with the most frequent posters...


Inziladun: He is the most frequent poster, yet his posts don't contain a lot of substance and are a bit agreeable. This could be a wolf tactic, which is why he was on my suspect list yesterDay. He did suspect G55 in post #205 - his reasons are explicit, but they seem to be similar to reasons others suspected her. In his vote for G55, he states her death could shed light on Pitch, Legate, and Rikae. I have yet to see him mention the former two toDay. ToDay, he starts by disregarding the possibility of a frame kill and seems to imply that it points to me being a wolf. Then he appears to reverse his position in post #304 to acknowledge that a frame job is possible. Has stated that Eonwe's vote was odd, which I do agree (but more on that later).

Impressions: My opinion of Inzil hasn't really changed much. The frequent posts with low substance can be a wolfish tactic. While his opinion on G55 was consistent, it was an easy bandwagon to follow. And yes I may be biased, but do find his comments about the Night kill fishy.

---

Lottie: Also a frequent poster, but with more substance. She brings up the possibility of a G55/Pitch wolf pair in post #146, and remains consistent with those suspicions and ends up voting for G55. She quickly jumps on Greenie's comments on Mac, which could be suspicious if Mac is innocent. ToDay she finds the last-minute bandwaggoners for me suspicious with the reasoning that if I'm innocent, I'd be a preferable lynch.

Impressions: Lottie is what I call a helpful player, which doesn't point either way alone. However, her suspicions of Pitch/G55 stayed pretty consistent throughout the Day so I don't find her vote suspicious. And her reasoning for the wolves to join the bandwagon to vote me is something I agree with. I think I recall being fooled by Lottie, so I'll remain cautious, but right now I'm leaning innocent.

---

Pitchwife: Early on, he appears to suspect G55 and Legate, but more so the latter for picking up on G55's idea of the no-vote. In post #163, he thinks there's a wolf among Rikae, Kit, Lottie, and me based on our suspicion of him. The Rikae/G55 squabble makes him think better of them. He ended up suspecting my later posts then later voted me for the reasons of using Rikae's shortlist, then backing off and redirecting to Kit.

Impressions: So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious). He voted second for me, which is before the bandwagon against me really began and while I disagree with his reasons, from his perspective, I do actually find them to be valid. No, I did not intentionally copy Rikae's list, but I also didn't do a good job at giving reasons to suspect the people on my list and after reviewing my posts, I suppose backing off on him didn't look great either. After re-reviewing his posts, I do find Pitchwife to be more genuine and if I were to guess, I'd think him innocent.

--

Shasta: In post #188, he predicts G55-cobbler, Rikae-innocent. Is that Shasta being psychic again? He questions Greenie's thinking in post #197, then more so in post #211. He ends up voting Pitch for it appears his comment on Eonwe in #174. Mentions he doesn't like Greenie's and Eonwe's throwaway votes.

Impressions: Shasta's style is short and to the point, but he does give his opinions. I don't really understand his vote for Pitch. Because Pitch put down Eonwe's list as too wishy-washy...or am I missing something here?

--

Oh good grief, have I really only done four people? I'm gonna be up all night getting this done.

To be continued...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Urwen

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

Uh, does this mean you want to quit the game? I understand it might be a little overwhelming for someone who hasn't played it before, but you can still consider. (I wanted to say "We don't bite" but err... some of us might, it's sort of the point. )

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill.

Ditto. Also, Rikae and Galadriel55 are two adult people who had an argument during a game where such things happen regularly, not to mention when one of their role was to deliberately sow chaos. The wolves, nor anyone else of us, are not required to nanny the dead. Come on.

Originally Posted by Boro

Excluding Rikae's vote, Pitch's vote for Brinn, looks the most innocent to me. It came before the really either "wagon" developed.

And why would a vote look innocent simply if it's early? A wolf might want to get the voting business out of hand and slip out of scrutiny early too.

Originally Posted by Boro

sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.

Wait, what? You say that "everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim" (I agree), then you still go on to say that this still depends on Brinn's role? I mean, unless you have a good reason to think a ranger claimant is lying, you do vote to save them regardless your own role and that of the other lynch options? Even if you are a wolf because it's "what an innocent would do" + as solid reason to vote someone as they come. I don't think Sally's vote says anything about her role, or Brinn's. Except Sally probably isn't the seer who dreamt that Brinn is the real ranger. (Addendum: I see Greenie basically said this much too.)

Paranoid!Mac is back and even more paranoid. Is he trying to look so paranoid that we will let him off the hook? I'm not buying his "perhaps the wolves framed me" theory. Setting someone up might be a nice bonus for the wolves at this point, but I very much doubt that was the main reason for them going for Rikae.

Not sure either what to make of Boro's conviction that innocent!Rikae laid a trap and Brinnwolf walked into it. I need to reread Rikae's posts to see if it really looks like that. While I agree with Boro that the wolves are unlikely to be motivated by the want to frame someone (as I said about Mac), I think it's somewhat dangerous to operate on the basis that you know who the wolves suspected to be a seer. I mean, Mac seems to be convinced it's him not Brinn that the kill points at. Personally I am unsure because I haven't still reread Rikae's posts. But perhaps Boro or Mac has been reading them more carefully overNight.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Yes, but it's also entirely possible. I see you're arguing you'd be more chill and take the risk of not killing them if you were a wolf (fair enough), but perhaps you disagreed with your packmates and you weren't the one to send in the kill? Or perhaps you didn't realise how easily the death would be traced back to you?

Originally Posted by Brinn

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Here we go again.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

First, about my vote: there's not much more to say other than that I was on very limited time and had only managed to catch up to post #212, which was the most recent post when I arrived (as mentioned in my post). I did do a refresh just to see votes before making my final choice, but at that point we were still on page 6 and no-one had more than 2 votes so it was all still open (and I really didn't have time to look to see if I'd x-posted or not).

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

I think she just wanted to 1) save herself possibly (and in doing so, sacrifice Brinn which just says she didn't think her a particularly likely wolf), 2) possibly flush out the real ranger, and 3) cause chaos. Why not do it earlier? Maybe she didn't think she'd actually get lynched, or it didn't cross her mind until then. I wouldn't spend too much time on this.


edit: xed with 2x greenie and 2x legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wait, what? You say that "everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim" (I agree), then you still go on to say that this still depends on Brinn's role? I mean, unless you have a good reason to think a ranger claimant is lying, you do vote to save them regardless your own role and that of the other lynch options? Even if you are a wolf because it's "what an innocent would do" + as solid reason to vote someone as they come. I don't think Sally's vote says anything about her role, or Brinn's. Except Sally probably isn't the seer who dreamt that Brinn is the real ranger. (Addendum: I see Greenie basically said this much too.)

Indeed. Can you explain that, Boro?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As for Legate returning to the fake votes, I want to scream NOT AGAIN, but then again, perhaps something interesting can be gleaned from them, if one has the stomach...

Well, I just thought, after all the hassle that thing caused, it would be absolutely the silver lining of it all if we just forgot they ever existed and let them rot there...

[Huinesoron]

#-1:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.

Thank you, Pitch, and sorry, Rikae. I've gone back and edited my first post toDay (solely for pronouns and verb-agreement); will look at my yesterDay's posts later.

#-1.5:

Or is that -0.5? Anyway, while doing that I found that I'd highlighted Rikae as the first person with what seemed to me a solid reason for voting Brinn. So that makes sense.

#0: There's a medium chance I may be suddenly unavailable starting ~2 hours before DL. Since my alternatives are 'vote early and maybe get to be here anyway' and 'don't vote early and maybe miss the vote', and to maintain full transparency, what I'm going to do is state my 'prospective early vote' around 2h15 before DL, and write up (but not post) a quick post making it official. If I can't read or write anything, I should at least be able to snatch five seconds to send that vote through. If I can spend actual time on the thread, I'll just scrap the stored post and take the last couple of hours into account. It's not great, but it's the best compromise I can find, and I figured I'd say well in advance.

Okay, on to the overview. Before I'm accused of being "helpful" again (Is there a term for the opposite of "damning with faint praise"? I feel like I'm being praised with faint damning!), I will say that these 'look at everything' posts are actually just my notes while catching up; I share them in the hopes that a) if my suspicions hold up we can catch the wolves and b) other people might spot things I missed.

I'm seeing a very quick division of the "why Rikae" discussion into two sides: Zil in #287 blames her place on the Brinn-wagon, and Lottie in #288 blames her fight with G55. Both of these seem reasonable (after all, if I'm right about Brinn's innocence, I'm sure the wolves would love to make her look guilty and get her killed!), but the fact that they come so close together makes me suspicious. Could this be a pre-planned exchange between two wolves? If they actually killed Rikae for a third reason, framing the discussion this way could keep people from noticing.

… actually, as Boro points out in #293, Zil and Lottie were the two people Rikae called out as suspicious for being on the "anti-Brinn wagon". So that could be their reason right there. (Lommy mentions the Wolves seeing Rikae as a possible Seer in #298; I'd say that confirms she's not in a Zil-Lottie pack, at least).

Originally Posted by Pitch

This, I feel, is a distorting abbreviation of what I actually said. I said that there was probably a wolf among those suspecting me (i.e. Rikae, Brinn, Kit & Lottie), but didn't suspect Rikae specifically (rather the contrary). The paradox was I was getting non-wolvish vibes from both of them. I admit my post was pretty condensed, but was I so unclear or are you deliberately misreading me?

Ah, right. My mistake was reading 'there's probably a wolf here' as 'I think any of these could be a wolf, but don't know which'; I didn't connect the fact that the later part was you whittling down that list. I get it now.

#309 is a worrying post from Legate: he manages to imply lynching a wolf would be a bad thing, and straight up say that lynching the cobbler was 'unfortunate'. I've leaned innocent on Legate from the start, but I think that was mostly from the GLP; given that that was being stirred up by a cobbler, I think I'm going to have to consciously shake my impressions from it free.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Of the people who were "on the table" when I voted, I thought Pitchwife looked the most innocent, but I didn't have much of a preference as for Gal vs Brinn. I suspected both of them a little, but neither was my top suspect. (Gal looked maybe more suspicious to me than Brinn, but more likely of the two to turn out to be a mere cobbler if evil.) Since the last few votes (looking at the tally, I think Rune and Ka's for Brinn), it clarified the overall situation to me that it's likely to be Gal vs Brinn in the end and I was okay with either. So I thought I might as well cast my vote then (and not later) and decided to vote Gal whose bandwagon seemed to me to have less momentum. What I meant by "let's make this more interesting" was "let's see if anyone rushes to save Gal, or joins the bandwagon after me to save Brinn". Adding a new vote candidate 15min before the dl when 2/3 of the village had already voted would have been the opposite of making it interesting…

Hmm. I think my issue with this is that keeping the vote evenly split didn't make things interesting. I can see how it kept things interesting, but 'make' sounds like you laying the groundwork to claim credit for whatever the result turned out to be.

#314 & #315: More back-to-back Lottie/Zil posts, this time backing each other up in their suspicion of Rune, but in a "he's not suspicious, just suspicious" way.

Originally Posted by Legate

Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info.

What did I say? I'm "helpful"! I think a fair reading of my post will show that I wasn't specifically focussing on Pitch; it was just that he kept coming up! If I'd spent a chunk of the post trying to re-justify PitchWolf-GalaWolf as PitchWolf-Cobbler55, I could see this argument (as a wolf framing an innocent wouldn't have new evidence to go on). But other than a one-line mention that it didn't straight-up clear him, I think everything I said about him was from later, unrelated posts.

Ultimately, while I try to take a blank slate approach with these long posts, my suspicions don't go away just because it's a new Day. That sounds like what I'd expect from a wolf.

… in that spirit, then, and given my worries a few posts up about Legate, I'm going to set aside my innocent-lean on him and blank-slate this post (#318). And… overall, it looks like something from an innocent, not a wolf. I don't agree with his suspicions of Brinn, but it reads like he honestly has them (and as he says to Lottie, even 'don't suspect' isn't the same as 'know is innocent'). His multiple digressions onto wolf psychology could be wolfish distraction, but we've seen enough of this from all corners that I think it's just the equivalent of Day 1 banter.

Boro's #324 has more of the 'Brinn is very wolfy (but for no particular reason)' feel I've been getting from so many people. This is why I don't trust the Brinn-wagon: it feels like somewhere early on in it, a wolf managed to shape people's perception of Brinn so that everyone started seeing her as sketchy but without solid reasons. Pitch's 'just asking questions' posts (I think I mentioned 2 or 3 in my earlier post) seem like a prime candidate for the culprit.

Interestingly, Boro also notes a Zil/Lottie suspect pair. And is then followed up by Zil yet again (see #290) discussing suspicions he had which were proved wrong. Not analysing them any further, just talking about "wolves" we know aren't.

#327 gives me pause, because of the reminder that Lottie was the person whose suspicions I most agreed with on Day 1. If she's a wolf, then does it follow that I'm straight up wrong about PitchWolf? Maybe.

My main problem is that Lottie doesn't seem wolfish to me in isolation, just in her interactions with Zil. So I don't really know what to make of that.

(I'm closing on 2 hours into this and my brain is glazing over.)

I'm in two minds on Kitanna's study of the low-posters. On the one hand, spotting quiet wolves is a worthwhile endeavour, particularly since they had G55 vs Rikae to hide under yesterday. On the other hand, their lack of posts surely makes it unlikely that you're going to find much evidence? And yet somehow Urwen, who has not really engaged with the thread at all, gets a full screen of commentary.

Mac in #331 does some very nice looking analysis of… why G55 might have gone after Rikae. I'm not sure why this matters? He can't be leading into a 'maybe the wolves thought the same way', because his theory rests on G55 thinking he was a wolf. So… I'm confused.

Boro repeats the Brinn-wolf theory, leaning on the 'trap' comment (which was Rikae's catch, and we know Rikae is innocent). Which… yes, it's still a plausible argument, but it was never the main one used yesterDay. I think any discussion of Brinn's near-lynch which doesn't take that into account comes worryingly close to attempting to hide it. (And Boro didn't vote Brinn yesterday…)

Brinn and Eonwe both pop in with lists of possibilities, which both then use to say 'there's so many options we can't tell, so why think about it?'. Unlike Lommy yesterDay, I don't think I can look at this and think 'one is innocent, one is guilty'. Quiet!Eonwe still worries me a bit, but I'll call this one a wash. I'm going to note his Boro-Pitch theory here to look back on; I don't think I'm following it correctly right now, so I want to read it again later.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Nooooooooooooooo!

"A little bit of Werewolf on the Downs
A little bit of Cobbler makes me frown…"

(Got to admit, I didn't know those lyrics went to that song. I've learned something today!)

THE Ka's analysis of Rikae's 'wolf-bait'... something that jumped out at me was this quote from Pitch replying to me(?):

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.

Coupled with this from THE Ka:

Originally Posted by THE Ka

This one… I’ve been trying to read for awhile now. I’ve even agreed with them on occasion when they’ve given small isolated replies.

I think that's exactly what I feel. When Pitch replies to me, addressing a concern I raised, I nod along and go 'yes, good point, I understand now'. But when he's not specifically trying to answer someone's suspicions of him, he just sets off so many alarm bells.

I've just refreshed and seen Legate's #345 'endless scroll' comment, and I'm feeling the same myself. But there's only five posts to go…

Greenie draws out what I was thinking about 'all the options' from Brinn by saying it looks like she's saying we should ignore the night-kill as implicating her. This is the sort of reasoning I'd expect to see on a legitimate Brinn analysis; I stand by my statement that most of yesterDay's logic was just 'she feels bad' stated in different words.

Lommy is right that Boro's 'the first vote on Brinn is least suspicious' line is suspicious in itself; it's not like there wasn't a lot of suspicion on Brinn at the time! And… I'm up to date!

Now to remember what I've said over the last, uh, three hours… :O

Okay. Pitch and Lommy were my main suspicions yesterday; they don't look as bad (so far) today, but neither am I totally comfortable with them. Zil looks dodgy, Lottie looks dodgy but only when paired with Zil. Boro is giving me bad vibes but nothing I can articulate, and I don't like Mac's 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf' theory much at all.

On the innocent side: Greenie has does good work on (actual reasons) why Brinn might be suspicious, and Legate is still striking me as innocent. Brinn herself… I agree that the evidence is piling up, but I still think the Brinn-wagon was suspicious as all get-out, so can't see how she could be a wolf.

Hopefully I can stay current and non-wall-of-text-y for the next few hours.

hS

[Boromir88]

Rikae -> Brinniel
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
---30 min mark----
Kath -> G55 (2)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
----15 min mark----
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
Sally -> Brinn (7) (after "ranger reveal")

Ok, so I took out those who didn't vote for either G55/Brinn. 2 wagons that big had to have wolf involvement.

As noted already today, Steve's and Greenie's throw away votes came within the 30 minute mark. Looks of "not wanting to get their hands dirty." At the same time, can't tell if they're too suspicious without knowing Brinn's role.

Excluding Rikae's vote, Pitch's vote for Brinn, looks the most innocent to me. It came before the really either "wagon" developed.

Then came 3 straight votes for G55 (Kath, Inzil, Lottie). If Brinn's a wolf, this would be a prime spot to try to save a Brinnwolf. Kath's vote looks less suspicious as a "save Brinnwolf" vote, because she had early established suspicion of G55. Also, Inzil, and Lottie had made their votes for G55 after already knowing Kath's vote.

If Brinn's a wolf that mates were trying to save. Inzil andLottie's votes are the worst. (Rikae also in their final post to us pointed out the growing "let's not start a wagon against Brinn sentiments - pointing to Huey, Inzil and Lottie). If Brinn's innocent, Inzil and Lottie's vote still look suspicious, because by pushing forward G55, with under 30 minutes to go it kind of boxed us into 2 choices.

My head is going to hurt trying to unpack all those 15 minutes and under votes. Could be a wolf in there, but it's hard to tell with people voting and cross-voting. I'd have to look closer at their established reasons.

Rune asked someone why they were suspicious of Brinn at some point prior to his vote and he seemed to accept it. Doesn't look suspicious.

Brinn's vote is neutral. Self-preservation can't determine suspicion either way.

sally's vote strikes me as a little suspect. In the spur of the moment with such little time, I think everyone would have to accept G55's ranger claim. But if Brinn's not a wolf, sally's vote is the most suspicious.

If Brinn's a wolf. The most suspicious voters:

Inzil
Lottie

If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn

Edit: cross posted since back somewhere on Page 8. Phew

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn

G55 had been my only real suspect all Day. The sudden push for Brinn made me wonder if someone wasn't trying to save a Galwolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If Brinn's a wolf. The most suspicious voters:

Inzil
Lottie

If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn

I'd been saying that G55 (and, to a lesser degree, Pitch) was my first choice all Day. I also was starting to suspect Mac and therefore to see the Brinnwagon in a sinister light, so I definitely wanted my top suspects over a player I thought was being pushed by a wolf. If Brinn does turn out to be a wolf, I'd be wrong, yeah, but I'd been pushing G55 over Brinn all Day, it wasn't a last minute shift to try to save anyone.

[Urwen]

It's times like these that I wish I were wolf. I would play better as one, as my experience shows

[Kitanna]

I decided to start by looking at those with 10 or less posts. I find it easier to organize my thoughts going player by player, so here we go with the first batch. Most of these I've pretty much ignored, except Lhuna I think.
A Little Green 10
Macalaure 10
satansaloser2005 8
Kath 7
THE Ka 6
Eönwë 4
Lhunardawen 4
Urwen 3
Lalaith 2

Lalaith
First post was #89 and she didn't say anything beyond "trying to read."
Next post

Still reading. As far as I can see everyone has now posted?

I feel very confused about the point of this false deadline business. Is that an idea just for toDay or a more general thing? Either way, Mac is right that we can't get/expect 100% turnout on false deadlines because of people having genuine RL commitments, and then of course we will have wolves avoiding the false deadline, by claiming they were busy elsewhere.

One thing I'm looking out for. With five wolves about, I suspect some of them will be picking fights with each other - they can afford to do some showboaty bickering to divert attention from potential allegiances.

What in Arda is Lhuna doing? Honouring family traditions?

She doesn't really say anything beyond questioning how helpful a fake vote would be and agreeing with Mac on how hard two DLs would be. She does mention with 5 wolves, we're likely to see some picking fights with one another. Comments on Lhuna's vote for herself.
Eventually Legate called her first post fishy.

Originally Posted by Legate

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

Ka later comments stating Lalaith hadn't really said anything and was more of a dead end. Legate comes back to her listing her in his Orange zone.
She didn't vote and any other comments about her were along the lines of "not enough to read." She hasn't been back since her second post.
Not much to say about Lalaith, she was talked of, barely, more than she posted. Not much to say, except, since she didn't vote I'm surprised she wasn't a "no trace" kill honestly.

Urwen
Spoke fairly early on, but didn't actually say anything.

Checking in.

Maeglin: Why did you bring me? I am not a part of this game.
Me: True, but I hope your sharp eyes will help me spot the wolves.
Maeglin: Ah, that makes sense.

On the first page on posts, Urwen ended in a lot of mentions thanks to Pitch's statistical approach to who was a wolf. Which I find amusing since Urwen and still had a lot of mentions. But that doesn't amount to anything given the joke context of Pitch's post.
I also find it amusing the two least posters were lumped together by Lommy

Originally Posted by Lommy

Lalaith and Urwen - ok I might have grouped them together for funsies, but it's true neither of them has given me enough material to work on, so nothing to say yet.

Really the same could be said of them today so far.
Post #202 votes for G55
Eonwe eventually votes for Urwen. Which looks like a safe vote from just CRTL+F Urwen, but we'll see when I actually dig into Eonwe.
Then today

Originally Posted by Urwen

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

Soooo super helpful. Voted out of spite, so at least that's honest...? I mean, a throwaway vote, but if taken at face value, an honest, if silly, reason to vote G55. Urwen cast the first vote for G55 by the looks of it. I'm not really sure what to make of it? If we believe it was just out of spite, then it was a waste and relatively unhelpful given how little there is to go on. If it was a wolf looking at who was gaining momentum, well that's another story. But as so many other said, there is so little there.

Lhuna
Posting to let us know she is in the "I hate Day 1" club.
I did make a comment about her "this isn't a helpful post" because it rubbed me the wrong way. It still rubs me the wrong way. It seems pointless to point out "there's no content here" when Day 1 is full of posts with no content (in general to WW games), hanging a flag on that fact annoys me and makes me ask "why bother?"
Her next post she votes for herself in honor of Nilp. Much of the rest of the post is responding to what was being discussed at the time. Fake DL, how the dead thread works, she then makes a list of suspects.

Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.

The rest fall into the categories of either talkative, speculative, and argumentative yet genuinely helpful OR practically non-existent. Or Shasta.

Or Shasta made me laugh very hard and I'm sorry I missed it earlier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife
Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
THIS.

Mac is amusing. But still scary.

Now to bed. I will wear a face mask as I sleep; I suggest you all do the same. Maybe this way the Evil Breath won't get us, who knows.

Though I'm not sure why she found Mac scary.
In her self-vote post she responds to Mac on the fake DL, changing of fake votes where she discusses how a wolf could swing a vote. But I don't see anything to indicate why exactly she thought Mac was scary. Beyond, maybe, she didn't trust his own reasoning on wolves swinging votes?
And toDay:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Quote:

He's a zombie. Get him!

We don't want zombies on top of everything else...

I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill. It may be because I've never played with a dead thread before and am yet to see how it affects actual game play, but wouldn't a dead thread game be like any other game in that the wolves would try to get rid of the Gifteds (particularly the Seer) during the Night? Maybe Rikae said something that made the Infected think they're the Seer. Unfortunately I don't have time at the moment to go through their posts yesterDay to see if anything like this sticks out.

I'm still trying to figure out the dead thread myself since it's entirely new to me, but I agree with Lhuna's that it seems unlikely wolves would pick based on who joins the QT thread and more likely they feared she was the seer. Though it is possible given Rikae's spat with G55 is was more they thought they would be considered innocent toDay. I seem to recall a number of people saying they got innocent vibes from that fight. May have been the wolves removing someone who they saw as being generally trusted.

Eönwë
Brings up that G55 distanced herself from her idea of the fake vote. Offers innocent realziing it's a bad idea vs bold wolf. Feels good about Legate based on a reread of the fake vote discussion. Vocalizes early on that he's not sure he trusts Brinn

So far, I like THE Ka and Lommy. The fact that Brinn feels the same way (or at least claims to) makes me unsure about whether to trust her too or doubt my lack of suspicions about those two.

Requests clarification from the Mod God about wolves PMing in quarantine.
The next post is a list of what he thinks of this village. Some highlights, found Legate reasonable, though noted wolfLegate can be reasonable too. I read as undecided. Didn't find G55 overally suspicious. Believes others were trying to get her out of suspcions way by pinning the fake vote on Legate. Finds Boro unsettling, but not really suspicious it reads like. More of a side-eye thing than anything. Says he can't tell how he feels about Brinn which concerns him. Most everyone else fell into "not sure."
Voted Urwen. Of the Legate, Pitch, G55 trio thought Legate and Pitch were more innocent, unsure of G55 especially given her interaction with Rikae.

The reason I'm bringing this whole thing up is not to rehash this, but actually to point out that Zil, Brinn, and Lommy were also around then and lightly interacted with the topic, but as far as I remember without really addressing the fact that suspicions were being flung around (at least until later). I wouldn't be surprised if one of them were a wolf just going with the flow.

I also think there's something interesting going on between Legate, Pitch, and Mac which warrants more observation, but while I feel like someone among them may be suspicious, I really can't tell who it is.

I also agree with those that have said Boro is acting weird, but there will be more time for him to incriminate himself if he is guilty, and he's not suspicious enough for me to vote for him without hearing what he has to say for himself.

But then votes for Urwen because he doesn't like Urwen's vote. It is such a throwaway vote. Urwen hadn't said much and then proclaimed a vote out of spite, which is ugh on it's own, but Eonwe's vote doesn't look much better. This looks like a nice, safe vote on someone who was discussed, but wasn't actually gaining traction to be lynched. Rune even says if he were "a man of ideals" he'd have voted Eonwe for the Urwen vote.
Nothing for toDay.

THE Ka
Her first post starts with comments on fake voting, more specifically, thinking that no-vote was meant by the suggestion. Also states rushed villagers will grasp at straws to save themselves. This is in response to someone saying it's easy to catch a wolf in lying because they're fabricating accusations. I'm not sure who she's quoting though. Legate maybe? Since that's who she was responding to initially.
Discusses mechanics of QT vs GT in how wolves will vote. Next post talks some more on this after clarification on how the QT thread works.
The next post is a lot of talking game mechanics and potential wolf strategy. She responds to a number of people, but doesn't really give thoughts on other villagers, but rather on ideas being presented.
The next post calls for more substance from some players, though doesn't really name names. Later in the same post we get

So far, I really have no clue on Rune or Lhuna, but I know this is due to their time restraints and I can’t fault them on that alone. I could give them a pass the first Day, but I’d be looking for more substance the second given the material they’d have to look at along with us.
I also remember Lhuna having to step out early in game and to be completely honest, I can't in all consciousness go after someone on that either, because I've done that not once, but twice myself because of outside world responsibilities. One of the reasons I haven't played WW in almost ten years, unfortunately.
Rikae is Rikae, I’m not sensing anything out of their normal play style. I am however, not trying to let nostalgia cloud memory though...
I would like to see a little more explanation from Eonwe on their ideas since we’ve gotten past the fake-vote originator debacle. Have an interest in their deductions.
Loslote has me curious due to the repeated fanning of compliments to Huiensoron's thinking, but I'm not seeing much contribution outside of agreeing when it comes to Hui's theories.

Next post weighs in on G55/Rikae stating it's more of a difference in playing style. Later in the same post she says she finds their behavior true to character.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Quote:

Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon…

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.

She focuses in on Brinn and Lottie the most throughout the post. And eventually votes Brinn. In her vote post she does respond to Zil on Urwen's vote. Calls it a potential joke vote to be safe, but has no substance to go off of.
Nothing toDay yet.

That's the first five lowest posters. Ugh, so many more to go. I think I'm going cross-eyed.

Edit I see THE Ka and Urwen each said something as I rifled through posts. Awesome...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Urwen

It's times like these that I wish I were wolf. I would play better as one, as my experience shows

Whatever your role, just do your best. Watch others and see how they act, while forming your own opinions.

x/d with Kit

[Boromir88]

I should have started the day with this, but just to put it out here now, My predominant suspicion coming into the day is Brinn's a wolf. If the DL was NOW, I'd vote Brinn. Based on the voting yesterday and Rikae's death.

Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.

Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not. I mean hell we have 5 wolves. So yes the "Brinn's being framed" is suspicious

I was going to look at the Brinn voters, if Brinn is NOT a wolf, but that's a whole different string to pull. I hate strings about as much as I hate lists, and feel like there's 55,000 strings that I can pull on. Head is going to explode. So, I'm going to call it a night. I've skimmed through current day posts, but wanted to lay out all my thoughts from Day 1 voting and Rikae's death. Noted Inzil's and Lottie's reply to my suspicions, but will have to wait until some sleep to look back through their Day 1 activity.

I'm going to follow the "Brinn's a wolf string," unless there's convincing enough reasons not to. I don't buy the "frame" defense.

Edit: sorry trying to follow Rikae's wishes here. Still catching myself missing it, but corrected in this post.

Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.

[Kitanna]

Kath
Pops in to tell us all about her busy work and school filled life :P
She does provide some clarification on the rules as she read them in the rules thread.
She then points out where and how the no lynch/fake vote debate got started. She states she doesn't understand the concept

I don't really understand the concept. If everyone said who they would vote for, but there's no lynch and no role reveal, then the votes don't tell anything. Also the lynch is the only way of taking a wolf down unless the Hunter is targeted at Night and has picked a wolf.

I find it interesting how some people took the fake vote suggestion as no vote and others took it as two votes, one fake, one real. Kath falling on the belief it meant no real vote.
She goes on to say she doesn't understand what Legate was getting at when he jumped on the idea. Points out G55 calling Legate's jumping on the idea "cobbler much," which in hindsight is funny. States G55 backs away sharply from her own idea.
Summarizes a lot of the discussion up to that point.
Next post is more responses to discussion up to that point. And so on for the next post. Maybe it's because I'm tired, but it seems like a lot of Kath's first posts are reactions to what was being discussed. And while hooray discussion! I am finding it hard to say much beyond, "Kath seems reasonable."
Her next post she breaks down her thoughts on the votes up to that point.

Votes as I go:
Lhuna --> Lhuna - I mean, what is there to say really? It's a thing. I'm ok with being a thing toDay, but not anything past that.

Rikae --> Brinn - seems to be largely down to the wanting to avoid a trap comment. Other people have mentioned wanting to steer clear of the Legate-Pitch-G55 triangle, but even that seems to have died down as the Day has gone on and more people have appeared. Perhaps it's the 'avoid a trap' wording rather than the sentiment itself?

G55 --> Rikae - quite a big fight seems to have blown up between these two. I looked at post 69 and couldn't really see anything in it. Yes, Rikae somewhat exaggerated events but it was early in the Day and to me read as typical banter. I don't think there was this element of deliberate misrepresentation that G55 feels is going on. I don't know if G55 has played with Rikae before and it's an unfamiliarity with playing style thing, or a great way for a wolf-G55 to have a pretty logical reason to vote an innocent-Rikae.

Calls me consistent in response to others and I'm flattered.

Oh and Boro --> Pitch - supposed deliberate flip flopping between Legate and G55.

Urwen --> G55 - 'because I am Morleg and I am spiteful'. That's either a horrible reason for a vote or some reference I'm not understanding. Had Urwen shown any suspicion toward G55 before this? I don't really even recall Urwen posting until now.

Pitch --> Brinn - for using the same suspects as Rikae and then switching to Kitanna when she was suspected for this.

Her next post is looking at Urwen who only had the two posts. She tries to understand why the vote for G55
Then votes for G55. She had leveled some suspicion her way, so it's not unusual to see the vote.
No word toDay from her.

Cupcake aka Sally
First post is, from what I remember, classic Sally. She promises us links and laughter.
Next post provides promised links. Calls for an end to fake vote nonsense before it makes her "properly suspect people."
Next is simply "here and trying to catch up." Then explains how to quote within a quote for Kath.
Next is around, but obviously RL working, though, Sally dear, this is more important than a call.
Votes Brinn to save a "maybe ranger." Realizes her vote is the best she can do at the moment.
Starts off the posting for toDay, glad no one dead was the actual Ranger.
Suspected Rikae was a defensive wolf and then suspected them as defensive gifted. Makes notes on Rikae's temper. Notes Lalaith didn't vote.
Questions Steve's votes. Guys, it's been a long time, but who the frack is Steve in all this? Eonwe? Or is there a Steve I can't see posts from?!
Also says Greenie had a throwaway vote. Greenie voted for Mac. I remember a few people calling Mac scary and being unsure, but 1) I don't remember him doing anything scary 2) I don't remember what Greenie said of him, so I'm not sure this was a throwaway vote.
So that's Sally. I have so little to say about our little cupcake. Her vote seems the logical choice for a villager or a wolf. It was a last minute reveal, it's not like the real Ranger could counter that late in the Day. I suspect Sally on principal. It just feels wrong if I don't.

That's it for tonight. I pretty much roll out of bed and work until DL, but I'm intent on getting caught up. But it maybe the Cliff Notes version of things.

[Brinniel]

On Rikae's death...

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

The problem is that all three of these are possibilities and there are probably more out there, which leads me to...

Scenario 4. The wolves love chaos.

There are so many reasons why the wolves could've chosen Rikae including confusing and distracting the village. If we spend too much time trying to theorize why they died, that takes away focus from the actual posting from YesterDay and toDay, which plays into the wolves' hands. That said, I am wary of anyone who will lean too much into focusing on the Night kill.

So that is the last I will say on the Night kill.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm going to follow the "Brinn's a wolf string," unless there's convincing enough reasons not to. I don't buy the "frame" defense.

If you're gonna stick with that, then you're wasting your Day. I see a lot of theories from you on who is suspicious based on the assumption that I'm wolf, but I am not aware of the reason why you suspect I am one in the first place.

Okay, I am going through each player post-by-post and taking handwritten notes in the process in hopes that I can gather a better feeling of everyone. Seeing that there's nine pages, this may take awhile...

[Macalaure]

To prove that I’m not crazy, or at least not that crazy.

(I will mostly refer to post numbers instead of creating a 10-screens long post with 20 quotes.)

It started with Gala coming up with her fake vote thing. Legate took it up with excitement, though with a different spin, but Gala returned this excitement by calling him a cobbler in #38. I later said the same thing in #52:

Then Rikae made an error in #69, as I did not say I thought Legate looked infected, just cobblerish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

Then Gala comes out blazing in #71, quoting the above and challenging Rikae. I addressed it as well in #97, with somewhat less furor. Gala restates it in #127:

Originally Posted by Gala

And I jokingly called you out on deliberately summarizing incorrectly. This only serves to sow confusion and derail the village, or give people (you most of all) an excuse to vote based on, frankly, false grounds if the vote is based off this post. My point still stands.

In the same post she quotes my #97, telling me that there are other problems with Rikae's post, too, without elaborating. A minor attempt to try and side with me, the first of a few.

In #128 (crossing with Gala) Rikae understands what Gala meant in the first place. They check, see their error, and admit to it. That could have been that. Gala, however, doesn’t buy it, and over the next few posts between the two, some cross-posted, the argument slowly escalates. Over the course, Gala keeps “siding” with me several times, even though I didn’t mention anything about this since my one comment in #97.

Originally Posted by Gala, #137

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

#147:

Originally Posted by Gala, #147

Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

#156:

Originally Posted by Gala, #156

Seriously? No one else except Mac has noticed anything wrong with that post?

Then in #166 I weigh in, accepting Rikae’s explanation and calling Gala’s case far-fetched, but at this point the fight is already all over the place.

.......

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

All of this was already on my mind during the Night and now Rikae is dead. Obviously, it’s a bit of a stretch for me to assume the wolves saw everything the same way. But here’s the thing - I got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie and a few. With a bit of a push, that case could gain momentum and get me lynched toDay - and an innocent lynched is a wolf not lynched.

I do realize that my slight paranoia might get me lynched, too.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Continuing the "posting on the go".

Originally Posted by Macalaure

To prove that I’m not crazy, or at least not that crazy.
(...)
In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

I don't know. I now absolutely see where you are coming from, but in my opinion, it proves nothing.

How about this possibility? G55 saw Rikae making a mistake, rubbed her hands together and was like "let's cause some chaos. In the best case, the village will lynch someone innocent that gets caught in the inevitably flawed discussion that comes out of it, and even in the worst case, they will have wasted a Day bickering about nothing. As for myself, I can always back away by saying I realise that this was all just a mistake, because I know that it was."

Also, the "fake votes" debate was already going on by itself at that point, G55 was free to light another fire. The more, the merrier.

Seems to me her attitude was simple to create possible discussions in which Wolves could jump at people or innocents could misjudge people or whatever. Even if G55 wasn't sure whether Rikae was innocent or not, she could simply trust the WWs to sort it out.

As for her mentioning you - it may be nothing more and nothing less than wanting to drag more people into the debate: either you, because you already "showed interest", or to alert others that they should participate as well. Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out - if you were a Wolf, you'd probably make sure you didn't get too muddled in this (which you didn't), if you weren't, then good riddance.

All in all, this is all very nice, but it has little merit for us at the moment, I think. On top of that, the chain of "G55 thought Rik was a Seer who dreamed me innocent" is a bit too many "ifs", kinda like "...because my mother's brother's cousin's former roommate once dreamed of my role."

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn

This is a good point!

For reference, here is the vote count (borrowed from Nog's post with the last vote added):

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel 4
Lommy -> G55 5
Huines -> G55 6
Legate -> Brinn 5
Macalaure -> Brinn 6
Brinniel -> G55 7
Sally -> Brinniel



One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

As a side note, come to think of it, Boro writing the above post and not mentioning this specifically when Pitch was the only viable non-Brinn vote-candidate at the time, while also voting for Pitch and not including the full vote-list (and thus leaving others to find out for themselves) could suggest a potential arms-length Boro-Pitch Infector pairing, which is an interesting idea that I'm going to have to look into.

On the other hand, while I'm sure there are wolves hiding in both the late Brinn and G55 votes, I think some of the earlier votes look like they could also be interesting (for example Shasta and Kitanna's Pitch-waggon that temporarily made Pitch the most-voted), but I will need to look at them more closely when I have time.

However, if Brinn does turn out to be a wolf, THE Ka and Legate are potential candidates for treading the (Infector-y) just-risky-enough-to-not-seem-throwaway-but-not-directly-leading-to-packmate-being-quarantined vote line.