Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Urwen]

It's times like these that I wish I were wolf. I would play better as one, as my experience shows

[Kitanna]

I decided to start by looking at those with 10 or less posts. I find it easier to organize my thoughts going player by player, so here we go with the first batch. Most of these I've pretty much ignored, except Lhuna I think.
A Little Green 10
Macalaure 10
satansaloser2005 8
Kath 7
THE Ka 6
Eönwë 4
Lhunardawen 4
Urwen 3
Lalaith 2

Lalaith
First post was #89 and she didn't say anything beyond "trying to read."
Next post

Still reading. As far as I can see everyone has now posted?

I feel very confused about the point of this false deadline business. Is that an idea just for toDay or a more general thing? Either way, Mac is right that we can't get/expect 100% turnout on false deadlines because of people having genuine RL commitments, and then of course we will have wolves avoiding the false deadline, by claiming they were busy elsewhere.

One thing I'm looking out for. With five wolves about, I suspect some of them will be picking fights with each other - they can afford to do some showboaty bickering to divert attention from potential allegiances.

What in Arda is Lhuna doing? Honouring family traditions?

She doesn't really say anything beyond questioning how helpful a fake vote would be and agreeing with Mac on how hard two DLs would be. She does mention with 5 wolves, we're likely to see some picking fights with one another. Comments on Lhuna's vote for herself.
Eventually Legate called her first post fishy.

Originally Posted by Legate

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

Ka later comments stating Lalaith hadn't really said anything and was more of a dead end. Legate comes back to her listing her in his Orange zone.
She didn't vote and any other comments about her were along the lines of "not enough to read." She hasn't been back since her second post.
Not much to say about Lalaith, she was talked of, barely, more than she posted. Not much to say, except, since she didn't vote I'm surprised she wasn't a "no trace" kill honestly.

Urwen
Spoke fairly early on, but didn't actually say anything.

Checking in.

Maeglin: Why did you bring me? I am not a part of this game.
Me: True, but I hope your sharp eyes will help me spot the wolves.
Maeglin: Ah, that makes sense.

On the first page on posts, Urwen ended in a lot of mentions thanks to Pitch's statistical approach to who was a wolf. Which I find amusing since Urwen and still had a lot of mentions. But that doesn't amount to anything given the joke context of Pitch's post.
I also find it amusing the two least posters were lumped together by Lommy

Originally Posted by Lommy

Lalaith and Urwen - ok I might have grouped them together for funsies, but it's true neither of them has given me enough material to work on, so nothing to say yet.

Really the same could be said of them today so far.
Post #202 votes for G55
Eonwe eventually votes for Urwen. Which looks like a safe vote from just CRTL+F Urwen, but we'll see when I actually dig into Eonwe.
Then today

Originally Posted by Urwen

I think I am gonna take a page out of Pervinca's book and 'disappear'.

Soooo super helpful. Voted out of spite, so at least that's honest...? I mean, a throwaway vote, but if taken at face value, an honest, if silly, reason to vote G55. Urwen cast the first vote for G55 by the looks of it. I'm not really sure what to make of it? If we believe it was just out of spite, then it was a waste and relatively unhelpful given how little there is to go on. If it was a wolf looking at who was gaining momentum, well that's another story. But as so many other said, there is so little there.

Lhuna
Posting to let us know she is in the "I hate Day 1" club.
I did make a comment about her "this isn't a helpful post" because it rubbed me the wrong way. It still rubs me the wrong way. It seems pointless to point out "there's no content here" when Day 1 is full of posts with no content (in general to WW games), hanging a flag on that fact annoys me and makes me ask "why bother?"
Her next post she votes for herself in honor of Nilp. Much of the rest of the post is responding to what was being discussed at the time. Fake DL, how the dead thread works, she then makes a list of suspects.

Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.

The rest fall into the categories of either talkative, speculative, and argumentative yet genuinely helpful OR practically non-existent. Or Shasta.

Or Shasta made me laugh very hard and I'm sorry I missed it earlier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife
Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
THIS.

Mac is amusing. But still scary.

Now to bed. I will wear a face mask as I sleep; I suggest you all do the same. Maybe this way the Evil Breath won't get us, who knows.

Though I'm not sure why she found Mac scary.
In her self-vote post she responds to Mac on the fake DL, changing of fake votes where she discusses how a wolf could swing a vote. But I don't see anything to indicate why exactly she thought Mac was scary. Beyond, maybe, she didn't trust his own reasoning on wolves swinging votes?
And toDay:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Quote:

He's a zombie. Get him!

We don't want zombies on top of everything else...

I don't know about you guys, but I think determining who joins Cobb55 in the QT shouldn't be a main factor for a wolf kill. It may be because I've never played with a dead thread before and am yet to see how it affects actual game play, but wouldn't a dead thread game be like any other game in that the wolves would try to get rid of the Gifteds (particularly the Seer) during the Night? Maybe Rikae said something that made the Infected think they're the Seer. Unfortunately I don't have time at the moment to go through their posts yesterDay to see if anything like this sticks out.

I'm still trying to figure out the dead thread myself since it's entirely new to me, but I agree with Lhuna's that it seems unlikely wolves would pick based on who joins the QT thread and more likely they feared she was the seer. Though it is possible given Rikae's spat with G55 is was more they thought they would be considered innocent toDay. I seem to recall a number of people saying they got innocent vibes from that fight. May have been the wolves removing someone who they saw as being generally trusted.

Eönwë
Brings up that G55 distanced herself from her idea of the fake vote. Offers innocent realziing it's a bad idea vs bold wolf. Feels good about Legate based on a reread of the fake vote discussion. Vocalizes early on that he's not sure he trusts Brinn

So far, I like THE Ka and Lommy. The fact that Brinn feels the same way (or at least claims to) makes me unsure about whether to trust her too or doubt my lack of suspicions about those two.

Requests clarification from the Mod God about wolves PMing in quarantine.
The next post is a list of what he thinks of this village. Some highlights, found Legate reasonable, though noted wolfLegate can be reasonable too. I read as undecided. Didn't find G55 overally suspicious. Believes others were trying to get her out of suspcions way by pinning the fake vote on Legate. Finds Boro unsettling, but not really suspicious it reads like. More of a side-eye thing than anything. Says he can't tell how he feels about Brinn which concerns him. Most everyone else fell into "not sure."
Voted Urwen. Of the Legate, Pitch, G55 trio thought Legate and Pitch were more innocent, unsure of G55 especially given her interaction with Rikae.

The reason I'm bringing this whole thing up is not to rehash this, but actually to point out that Zil, Brinn, and Lommy were also around then and lightly interacted with the topic, but as far as I remember without really addressing the fact that suspicions were being flung around (at least until later). I wouldn't be surprised if one of them were a wolf just going with the flow.

I also think there's something interesting going on between Legate, Pitch, and Mac which warrants more observation, but while I feel like someone among them may be suspicious, I really can't tell who it is.

I also agree with those that have said Boro is acting weird, but there will be more time for him to incriminate himself if he is guilty, and he's not suspicious enough for me to vote for him without hearing what he has to say for himself.

But then votes for Urwen because he doesn't like Urwen's vote. It is such a throwaway vote. Urwen hadn't said much and then proclaimed a vote out of spite, which is ugh on it's own, but Eonwe's vote doesn't look much better. This looks like a nice, safe vote on someone who was discussed, but wasn't actually gaining traction to be lynched. Rune even says if he were "a man of ideals" he'd have voted Eonwe for the Urwen vote.
Nothing for toDay.

THE Ka
Her first post starts with comments on fake voting, more specifically, thinking that no-vote was meant by the suggestion. Also states rushed villagers will grasp at straws to save themselves. This is in response to someone saying it's easy to catch a wolf in lying because they're fabricating accusations. I'm not sure who she's quoting though. Legate maybe? Since that's who she was responding to initially.
Discusses mechanics of QT vs GT in how wolves will vote. Next post talks some more on this after clarification on how the QT thread works.
The next post is a lot of talking game mechanics and potential wolf strategy. She responds to a number of people, but doesn't really give thoughts on other villagers, but rather on ideas being presented.
The next post calls for more substance from some players, though doesn't really name names. Later in the same post we get

So far, I really have no clue on Rune or Lhuna, but I know this is due to their time restraints and I can’t fault them on that alone. I could give them a pass the first Day, but I’d be looking for more substance the second given the material they’d have to look at along with us.
I also remember Lhuna having to step out early in game and to be completely honest, I can't in all consciousness go after someone on that either, because I've done that not once, but twice myself because of outside world responsibilities. One of the reasons I haven't played WW in almost ten years, unfortunately.
Rikae is Rikae, I’m not sensing anything out of their normal play style. I am however, not trying to let nostalgia cloud memory though...
I would like to see a little more explanation from Eonwe on their ideas since we’ve gotten past the fake-vote originator debacle. Have an interest in their deductions.
Loslote has me curious due to the repeated fanning of compliments to Huiensoron's thinking, but I'm not seeing much contribution outside of agreeing when it comes to Hui's theories.

Next post weighs in on G55/Rikae stating it's more of a difference in playing style. Later in the same post she says she finds their behavior true to character.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Quote:

Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon…

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.

She focuses in on Brinn and Lottie the most throughout the post. And eventually votes Brinn. In her vote post she does respond to Zil on Urwen's vote. Calls it a potential joke vote to be safe, but has no substance to go off of.
Nothing toDay yet.

That's the first five lowest posters. Ugh, so many more to go. I think I'm going cross-eyed.

Edit I see THE Ka and Urwen each said something as I rifled through posts. Awesome...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Urwen

It's times like these that I wish I were wolf. I would play better as one, as my experience shows

Whatever your role, just do your best. Watch others and see how they act, while forming your own opinions.

x/d with Kit

[Boromir88]

I should have started the day with this, but just to put it out here now, My predominant suspicion coming into the day is Brinn's a wolf. If the DL was NOW, I'd vote Brinn. Based on the voting yesterday and Rikae's death.

Rikae does love traps. Rikae was pretty clear yesterday in that they did intentionally set a trap and suspected Brinn fell into it. Turns out Rikae had no special knowledge, but trying to put myself back into Day 1, the wolves wouldn't have known Rikae was an ordo. Brinnwolf fell into Rikae's trap and overall with Rikae's posting yesterday felt Rikae was a gifted, or in the least Rikae was going to be an assumed innocent.

Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not. I mean hell we have 5 wolves. So yes the "Brinn's being framed" is suspicious

I was going to look at the Brinn voters, if Brinn is NOT a wolf, but that's a whole different string to pull. I hate strings about as much as I hate lists, and feel like there's 55,000 strings that I can pull on. Head is going to explode. So, I'm going to call it a night. I've skimmed through current day posts, but wanted to lay out all my thoughts from Day 1 voting and Rikae's death. Noted Inzil's and Lottie's reply to my suspicions, but will have to wait until some sleep to look back through their Day 1 activity.

I'm going to follow the "Brinn's a wolf string," unless there's convincing enough reasons not to. I don't buy the "frame" defense.

Edit: sorry trying to follow Rikae's wishes here. Still catching myself missing it, but corrected in this post.

Folks, can we please refer to Rikae as they/them/their? Thank you.

[Kitanna]

Kath
Pops in to tell us all about her busy work and school filled life :P
She does provide some clarification on the rules as she read them in the rules thread.
She then points out where and how the no lynch/fake vote debate got started. She states she doesn't understand the concept

I don't really understand the concept. If everyone said who they would vote for, but there's no lynch and no role reveal, then the votes don't tell anything. Also the lynch is the only way of taking a wolf down unless the Hunter is targeted at Night and has picked a wolf.

I find it interesting how some people took the fake vote suggestion as no vote and others took it as two votes, one fake, one real. Kath falling on the belief it meant no real vote.
She goes on to say she doesn't understand what Legate was getting at when he jumped on the idea. Points out G55 calling Legate's jumping on the idea "cobbler much," which in hindsight is funny. States G55 backs away sharply from her own idea.
Summarizes a lot of the discussion up to that point.
Next post is more responses to discussion up to that point. And so on for the next post. Maybe it's because I'm tired, but it seems like a lot of Kath's first posts are reactions to what was being discussed. And while hooray discussion! I am finding it hard to say much beyond, "Kath seems reasonable."
Her next post she breaks down her thoughts on the votes up to that point.

Votes as I go:
Lhuna --> Lhuna - I mean, what is there to say really? It's a thing. I'm ok with being a thing toDay, but not anything past that.

Rikae --> Brinn - seems to be largely down to the wanting to avoid a trap comment. Other people have mentioned wanting to steer clear of the Legate-Pitch-G55 triangle, but even that seems to have died down as the Day has gone on and more people have appeared. Perhaps it's the 'avoid a trap' wording rather than the sentiment itself?

G55 --> Rikae - quite a big fight seems to have blown up between these two. I looked at post 69 and couldn't really see anything in it. Yes, Rikae somewhat exaggerated events but it was early in the Day and to me read as typical banter. I don't think there was this element of deliberate misrepresentation that G55 feels is going on. I don't know if G55 has played with Rikae before and it's an unfamiliarity with playing style thing, or a great way for a wolf-G55 to have a pretty logical reason to vote an innocent-Rikae.

Calls me consistent in response to others and I'm flattered.

Oh and Boro --> Pitch - supposed deliberate flip flopping between Legate and G55.

Urwen --> G55 - 'because I am Morleg and I am spiteful'. That's either a horrible reason for a vote or some reference I'm not understanding. Had Urwen shown any suspicion toward G55 before this? I don't really even recall Urwen posting until now.

Pitch --> Brinn - for using the same suspects as Rikae and then switching to Kitanna when she was suspected for this.

Her next post is looking at Urwen who only had the two posts. She tries to understand why the vote for G55
Then votes for G55. She had leveled some suspicion her way, so it's not unusual to see the vote.
No word toDay from her.

Cupcake aka Sally
First post is, from what I remember, classic Sally. She promises us links and laughter.
Next post provides promised links. Calls for an end to fake vote nonsense before it makes her "properly suspect people."
Next is simply "here and trying to catch up." Then explains how to quote within a quote for Kath.
Next is around, but obviously RL working, though, Sally dear, this is more important than a call.
Votes Brinn to save a "maybe ranger." Realizes her vote is the best she can do at the moment.
Starts off the posting for toDay, glad no one dead was the actual Ranger.
Suspected Rikae was a defensive wolf and then suspected them as defensive gifted. Makes notes on Rikae's temper. Notes Lalaith didn't vote.
Questions Steve's votes. Guys, it's been a long time, but who the frack is Steve in all this? Eonwe? Or is there a Steve I can't see posts from?!
Also says Greenie had a throwaway vote. Greenie voted for Mac. I remember a few people calling Mac scary and being unsure, but 1) I don't remember him doing anything scary 2) I don't remember what Greenie said of him, so I'm not sure this was a throwaway vote.
So that's Sally. I have so little to say about our little cupcake. Her vote seems the logical choice for a villager or a wolf. It was a last minute reveal, it's not like the real Ranger could counter that late in the Day. I suspect Sally on principal. It just feels wrong if I don't.

That's it for tonight. I pretty much roll out of bed and work until DL, but I'm intent on getting caught up. But it maybe the Cliff Notes version of things.

[Brinniel]

On Rikae's death...

Scenario 1. The wolves thought Rikae was gifted. But if they though them the seer, then they know that they didn't dream of me. Really, people. Are some of you really suggesting that a wolf-version of me would be dumb enough to go after Rikae because I thought they were the seer? I don't know if any wolves would be so jumpy this early in the game. In a village of 20+, it would be very lucky indeed if the seer dreamt of a wolf on Night 1.

Scenario 2. Rikae's death was a way to frame me.

Scenario 3. Rikae looked more innocent after the exchange with G55, so they were an easy kill.

The problem is that all three of these are possibilities and there are probably more out there, which leads me to...

Scenario 4. The wolves love chaos.

There are so many reasons why the wolves could've chosen Rikae including confusing and distracting the village. If we spend too much time trying to theorize why they died, that takes away focus from the actual posting from YesterDay and toDay, which plays into the wolves' hands. That said, I am wary of anyone who will lean too much into focusing on the Night kill.

So that is the last I will say on the Night kill.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm going to follow the "Brinn's a wolf string," unless there's convincing enough reasons not to. I don't buy the "frame" defense.

If you're gonna stick with that, then you're wasting your Day. I see a lot of theories from you on who is suspicious based on the assumption that I'm wolf, but I am not aware of the reason why you suspect I am one in the first place.

Okay, I am going through each player post-by-post and taking handwritten notes in the process in hopes that I can gather a better feeling of everyone. Seeing that there's nine pages, this may take awhile...

[Lalaith]

[RL] Huge apologies everyone. After reading the first 3 pages yesterDay and making a couple of posts, RL turned into a stressfest which meant I didn't return to the game until just past the deadline. I feel really bad not contributing more and especially for missing the vote. [/RL]
My first thought on looking at the way the lynching went - we can assume that G55-cobbler did not think Brinn was a wolf or she wouldn't have tried to save herself? That of course doesn't mean Brinn isn't a wolf, but it might be worth bearing in mind. And all that fake-vote business was started by a cobbler which makes total sense in hindsight. Legate's interest in the fake vote idea was curious, and I must say in general I have been struggling to follow his reasoning and find myself disagreeing with a lot of his conclusions about people and events. That doesn't make him a wolf of course but I feel wary of him.
So, yesterDay, a lot of things happened...some of which I haven't properly analysed. But here are some of the things/people I've had impressions about, good, bad or middling. Good feelings about Greenie, who I thought was reading posts carefully and thinking about things in a genuine and sensible way which feels unwolflike. Zil is coming across in a similarly honest way. Sally's panicked late arrival and attempt to save the alleged Ranger at DL felt like a genuine act by an innocent.
Boro's stream of consciousness posts yesterDay were odd and made me convinced he was the cobbler. However he clearly isn't and he's being more sensible toDay. His focus on Brinn is interesting and I take issue with her thoughts on Rikae's death - that the first two scenarios were all about her (Brinn). Yes, they did vote for her, but lets not forget Rikae boldly named three people in their first post - Pitch, G55 (cobbler) and Mac. One of those names could have been what killed them. Indeed, they carry on being suspicious of both Pitch and Mac for a couple of posts before the row with G55. (As far as Mac is concerned - I was finding him like Greenie, honest and helpful for the first few pages but then I wasn't sure. Need to go over things again to pinpoint what's worrying me)