Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Kath]

Oh my goodness RL stuff has meant time has really got away from me toDay. This is going to have to be quicker than I would like.

Rikae surely had to be a suspected Gifted kill, I simply can't see the point of it otherwise, so all these 'I'm being framed' theories make no sense to me. Mac thinking he's being framed, Inzil thinking there could be a frame related to Brinn, Brinn suggesting it was a frame on her

Originally Posted by Inzil

Rikae was the first vote on Brinn, and it must be significant that the wolves went after them. It's far too early for them to have been simply wanting to frame someone.

(I edited Inzil's words for pronouns there). Inzil agrees it seems.

Whereas Lottie:

Originally Posted by Lottie

My guess is, the wolves thought Rikae looked so innocent after the G55 fight - it's doubtful the cobbler went full tilt after someone they thought could be a wolf - that she wouldn't provide much cover for them. Semi-known innocents can be really powerful, after all.

Also a valid argument, I just feel that so early in the game the wolves can't afford to not be aiming at Gifteds.

Originally Posted by Hui

The fact that so few people commented on it as it was ongoing surprises me - it felt like such a big thing! But it was mostly just a vocal Cobbler doing her best to incite a flame war.

I'll be honest and say it's something I've seen before with at least Rikae and I think that's true of a few players here.

Originally Posted by Hui

What jumped out to me from that? I think Pitchwife is as suspicious as all get-out, for when and how he voiced his suspicions and placed his vote. Lommy flipflops (sorry, considers both sides). Both Legate and Lottie talk about lynching Brinn for information, which I don't much like on a Day 1 this busy. And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.

Is all this based on simply the fact that people went after Brinn? Given we don't know her role can such firm suspicions really be drawn at this point. If she'd been lynched and had turned out to be innocent I think this would all deserve a bit more credence.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I thought they looked dodgy at the end of yesterDay. After so heavily going after G55, they failed to vote that way. I wondered if a Rikae-wolf hadn't started picking up the Cobblerishness.

(I edited for pronouns again) This is about Rikae in response to Lottie saying Rikae would likely have been presumed innocent toDay. Interesting that even hypothetically there may have been two sides to this.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Just a thought about the QT vote - there are now two players in that thread and one is a cobbler. It's highly unlikely G55 will cooperate with Rikae and I believe if I'm right, in the case of a tie, G55 swings the vote. So while she may not know who the wolves are, we will all have to take that vote with a grain of salt.

Agreed, but at least it's only one vote in still a very large village.

Originally Posted by Mac

In her vote, Gala mentions other things, but following her posts, she very much started going after Rikae because they misrepresented something I said, thus exaggerating her suspicion of me. That's what everything spiraled out of control from. Gala must have thought Rikae was gifted, it makes no sense that she would go after them like that over that little reason if it was otherwise. A cobbler’s life isn’t worth much, but they tend to not go kamikaze this early without purpose.

Maybe she got hunter or ranger vibes from something, possible, but:
- it’s not unreasonable that seer-Rikae would pick me as their first dream.
- if you’re the seer and you know a wolf, what do you do? Keep quiet? Drop hints? Go all out and accuse? Try to subtly steer the village into lynching that wolf?
The way Rikae suspected me could fit the latter. Gala tried to associate herself with me several times, which makes me suspect that Gala thought so as well, a cobbler trying to reach out to who she thought was a wolf.

I'm not quite following the idea that G55 would have purposefully tried to associate with Mac if he is a wolf, when a Cobbler has no way of knowing who the wolves are, and presumably doesn't want to draw attention to anyone they think might be one.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So I found Pitch slightly suspicious yesterDay because he picked on Legate who if innocent, could be easy to build a case against. I did back off some on the suspicions, as I sensed a bandwagon building on him and if he were innocent, could be the work of wolves and didn't want to be caught up in it (which is apparently the post that several including Rikae found to be suspicious).

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

When I was going through the votes earlier this whole section involved a LOT of cross voting. Kitanna and Inzil's votes were cross posted and so Pitch and G55 were still equally in the running at that point. Lottie's vote was the first clear one to put G55 one ahead.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

When I was suspicious of both Brinn and Loslote of drifting into the shadow of Rikae-G55 debate, Loslote was the one out of the two who began defending themselves. A villager is probably gonna show anxiety on small things like when they replied to you, semantics and word choice, etc. not immediately what you’re accusing them of. At that point, they just want to prove themselves.

I can't quite tell whether you're saying that Lottie defending herself makes you think she is more likely to be an innocent or not.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

One thing I'm wondering about is the very very late timing of the G55 reveal. The options, at increasing levels of bluff, seem to be:

She was trying to get an innocent Brinn killed.
She wanted us to believe (1), but actually thought Brinn was an Infector and knew it was too late.
She wanted us to believe (2), but actually thought that Brinn was innocent and wants us to suspect her by assuming (2) is true.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think she just wanted to 1) save herself possibly (and in doing so, sacrifice Brinn which just says she didn't think her a particularly likely wolf), 2) possibly flush out the real ranger, and 3) cause chaos. Why not do it earlier? Maybe she didn't think she'd actually get lynched, or it didn't cross her mind until then. I wouldn't spend too much time on this.

And at the point she revealed, there were two more people to vote, and as Lal has now said if she'd appeared in that moment she would likely have voted Brinn in order to save the 'Ranger' and along with sally's vote that would have been G55 saved to presumably continue causing chaos the following day. So it could have had big ramifications.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

It wasn't that the vote for Brinn didn't come with a decent argument, it was it looked so obviously like he didn't want to tangle himself in an LGP bandwagon. Looking at the voting table, when he voted G55 was ahead and his vote tied Brinn though it wouldn't have mattered since first vote of a tie dies. I'm not sure how cross-posted his vote was though. He may not have known that his would tie up votes.

About Mac. Not a cross vote as far as I could tell when I looked at all the votes, and yes even with the tie it wouldn't have caused Brinn to be lynched if those had been the last votes.

Originally Posted by Inzil

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

See this is why I didn't really mention Kit in the voting round up. It was one strong reaction, but given the assumptions it raised, not bringing that to the forefront seemed more sensible. I'm assuming you're thinking that her being alive still suggests the reaction isn't a sign of ... what I thought we all thought it was a sign of!

Originally Posted by Lottie

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.

I'm wary that any of this conversation really happened. And still seems to be happening even onto a new page after it was first brought up and then it was suggested that perhaps it be left alone.

[Thinlómien]

++Macalaure

Can I now say "let's make this more interesting"?

But seriously though, someone's gotta start, and it might as well be me since I have a clear main suspect and he's had a chance to defend himself but I didn't really buy it.

Will continue to pop in and out until the DL!


edit: xed with Legate

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Kath

In terms of a Pitch-wagon building up as you say, who were you finding worrisome in the mix? You ended up voting G55 to save yourself, which I said earlier is entirely natural whatever a person's role, so if there hadn't been the need, would your vote still have gone to Pitch?

Between the three, Boro for his flimsy reasoning and Kit because her case against him could be opportunistic and the timing of her vote (was looking to be the start of another bandwagon). I don't like Shasta's vote either, but find it less worrisome.

Ideally, I would've voted Inzil or Kit for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay. But between Pitch and G55, yes I would've preferred Pitch as I thought him more suspicious than her.

[Kitanna]

I have spent more time on WW than my actual job today. Oops. I get done an hour before DL and hope to get more analysis done then.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Kath

As to why Rikae for the Night kill, I would assume the wolves were gunning for someone they thought might be the Seer. It would seem foolish for them not to always be aiming for a Gifted. Trying to set up frame jobs is all well and good in theory but their aim surely has to be to get rid of the greatest danger towards them.

Due to her confidence of play style and zeal? You could easily argue that Kit could make it onto the ‘possible Seer’ list as well for wolves for similar reasons. Lommy could come in as a possible third on such a list due to the proximity of her interactions with the main popular suspects.

I’m not really getting the hint they had a belief in Rikae being a gifted such as a Seer, but possibly another gifted role and barring that, settled with if Rikae was an innocent then they’d want them out of the way to play on other’s bias of who was most critical of them (sans G55) and knowing that there might not be another innocent who'd engage as eagerly with Rikae (thus causing some bait to see who would be an easy pick) in an argument.

Originally Posted by Rune

*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.

It is curious that Mac has increased this this type of semi-joking argument toDay. Yesterday based on actions I could understand the flighty tone he answered questions laid at him about his ‘lists’, but this is as if he’s trying to rehearse a story by telling and talking about himself over and over and then feigning ‘usual paranoia’.
So, why does Mac want to be a point of attention?

Who benefits from Mac’s performance is really what I’m wondering.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her.

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.
G55 throwing out there last minute about ‘But I’m a Ranger!’ was as duping delight as a cobbler could get.

[Loslote]

Also, to address this quickly:

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Why… why would the real Ranger do that on the end of Day 2?

Ranger is arguably one of the more key gifted roles next to Seer. You’d want to remain concealed as much as possible in order to see from the game Day who you need to protect that Night.
If someone pretends to be your role? Oh well. You can’t immediately go after them the next Day in game without drawing obvious attention.
G55 throwing out there last minute about ‘But I’m a Ranger!’ was as duping delight as a cobbler could get.

I saw that whole thing happening, realized I was caught up, and my first thought was, "Okay, Kit isn't a wolf. But. Wait. If Kit IS a wolf after all, what would be the point of revealing? To draw out the real Ranger. I should make sure that doesn't happen, just in case!" Now, was that necessary? Probably not, it seems pretty obvious. But at the time, it seemed important to say.

[Lalaith]

Ok I wasn't going to say anything about The Kit Thing but seeing as it's being openly discussed - *glares at certain people* -
Could the people who are still putting Kit in the 'slightly/fairly' suspicious category please explain to me - how would a Kitwolf know G55 was lying about being a Ranger? All a Kitwolf would know was that G55 was not a wolf.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

A thought I thought last night before bed - a possible reason for a Rikae kill is that they were onto something with their train of thought re: the anti-Brinn wagon. Weigh in, please.

Wasn't really thinking of it regarding Night kill, but I do think a wolf could possibly be hidden there. Their hands would look a little cleaner compared to others if I were lynched, thus proven innocent. It the reason I am slightly worried about Hui.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Parting shot: Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote.

I don't necessarily agree. Bandwagons can start when players start discussing suspicion and their intention to vote for someone. A first vote could piggyback on that.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

That only tells us that G55 doesn't think Brinn is a wolf but wants to lynch her to save somebody she thinks IS a wolf - which could well be Mac, as she already seems to have thought him a possible wolf yesterDay.

Or she recon that we would be very reluctant to support the quarantine vote when we know she has the deciding vote.

On a different note, The Ka attributes a quotation to me in post #426, which I definitely did not say. For some reason I cannot quote it when I try.