Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Thinlómien]

...to see if people have already addressed issues I raised in my vote analysis post.

I'm somewhat worried to see that the timestamp of Zil's megapost against me is 8 minutes past the deadline. He spent the Night building an attack against me. I can't feel very good about this - even if given the amount of suspicion he's under, he could probably quite sure about his continued survival as an innocent too.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

I'm still not sure why you were so convinced Sally would hunt you. Dare I say the p-word here? Hunters vote their hunt pick sometimes, but just as often they don't. I am somewhat thinking on the opposite lines to you here. Why indeed did no one really press the lynch towards Zil (or Boro, or Brinn - all three quite widely suspected)? Is that ecause they were somebody's packmates? (Not talking about Lottie here. I don't really suspect her, and she seemed to be fairly convinced Sally was a wolf until the last minutes.)

Originally Posted by Lalaith

For the same reason Legate did (we actually cross-posted) I got freaked out by the fact she didn't say who she was hunting. Up til then I'd been waiting on an agreed alternative to sally.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda.....Shoulda just voted earlier for Eonwe. Not sure if it would have helped though. Zil was coming up as an alternative with a lot of people but I didn't really feel enthused by that alternative bandwaggon - I felt similar about him as I had about Mac - couldn't quite see what all the fuss and suspicion was about.

Okay, I see this answers a question I had to Lalaith. I'm a bit unsure whether I buy it or not. It sounds genuine enough, but if Zil is innocent, then this could easily be Lalwolf admitting reluctance to get her hands bloody by voting him.


edit: xed with Lal, gotcha!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

The other important thing to consider here is, Lommy is a very good player who is very good at arguing for her innocence. If anyone could get away with encouraging the village to quarantine a Hunter who was very likely to take an innocent with her, it would be Lommy. With five wolves, I could see them agreeing that someone should be playing loud and bold, and that Lommy was the best person to do it.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Come on. I didn't force anyone to vote Sally yesterDay, yet most people still did. I don't have any magic manipulation powers. Yes, I was arguing quite vocally for lynching Sally. (Side note: so was Legate, a known innocent.) You guys could have let me yell at Sally alone and ignored me and voted for someone else. Yet you didn't. You can blame me for my decision that was bad in hindisight, but you can scarcely blame me for your own. The Sally lynch was not my doing alone, yet that narrative is very much being pushed. Do you know who benefit from that narrative? The wolves. Both the wolves who voted for Sally themselves, and even those who didn't, because it's making me an easy lynch candidate.

I'm with Lalaith here - it was very hard to think and plan around Lommy arguing that we should just quarantine Sally yesterDay. There wasn't another voice arguing with you, so we all just ended up quietly doing our own things without coordinating at all, and a lot of that (from what I remember) was just not being able to coordinate over you.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm still not sure why you were so convinced Sally would hunt you. Dare I say the p-word here? Hunters vote their hunt pick sometimes, but just as often they don't. I am somewhat thinking on the opposite lines to you here. Why indeed did no one really press the lynch towards Zil (or Boro, or Brinn - all three quite widely suspected)? Is that ecause they were somebody's packmates? (Not talking about Lottie here. I don't really suspect her, and she seemed to be fairly convinced Sally was a wolf until the last minutes.)

If you pay attention to Sally's posts yesterDay (before the reveal), you'd notice that she really didn't have a nuanced suspicion list. She suspected me, Pitch, and Mac, as far as I can tell based pretty much just on gut feeling. I didn't get any sense from Sally that she had a deeper plan going on. I got the sense that she was too RL busy to have any hidden suspicions. And I had the feeling that I was absolutely going to be her pick, and that if I wasn't, it was going to be Pitch or Mac - two people who, at that point in time, I really didn't think were wolves. Turned out I was right - I was her pick until one minute before the deadline, and when she changed it, it was to another person who was very, very likely innocent.

[Thinlómien]

(and then I'm gonna take a short break because I've spent basically all day on this game, ugh)


Innocentish

Lottie - I don't like how she's been focusing on just me toDay, but I maintain that her last minute hunter panic, as well as her Huine vote, make her look more innocent than not.

Pitch - also looks very innocent thanks to his Huine vote. I mean I guess I could reconsider that, but not toDay.

Rune - I think the Legate kill makes him look very good, and there's nothing at the moment to make me second guess it.


Ish

Kath - nothing super sinister or super reassuring going on here. I got mildly suspicious of her being so non-committal yesterDay, but the Legate kill perhaps makes her look mildly better.

Greenie - I have got a lot more genuine vibe from her toDay than before, perhaps because she has been talking more openly about her emotions/ thought processes (frustration over having been wrong, admitting ignoring Sally's hunter hint because she suspected her etc). Still, her track record is about as terrible as mine, and it would be very ironic if we were BOTH innocent. I still don't like how she steered clear of the whole Huinescussion on Day2 though.

Boro - started the game weird, then started to sound like his normal innocent self. Explained this with meta reasons which I was ready to accept, thought him pretty innocent. However, his Mac vote is still a little concerning, as is the fact that like with Inzil (see below), the suspicion against him somehow seldom materialises as votes. I should probably reconsider my good feeling about him (which, to be entirely honest might partly be based on him not suspecting me) but I don't think I'm gonna do that toDay.

Lalaith - I keep flipflopping here. I still don't like her indecisive going with the flow yesterDay, and I think her Huine vote looks faily likely to be a wolf-on-wolf. But then again, could innocent Lal play this way? Absolutely.

THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...

Shasta - mmmmhhh I still like him in regards to the Kit thing, and I like his independent thinking. But I don't like how he's now spent two days hovering around until the deadline and casting an absolutely meaningless vote. Talk about people who keep their hands clean. Possibly looks a tidbit better for the Legate kill though.


Suspiciousish

Lhuna - she is playing very safe and avoiding connections to most players. I don't like it.

Inzil - the next ??????? for me. I still don't like his Mac vote, and I don't like the way he's gunning for me right now, and I don't like how despite "everybody" suspecting him an actual zillynch has failed gaining traction repeatedly. Is it because a lot of the suspicion on him has been wolf-on-wolf? His weird vote yesterDay doesn't feel to wolvish though, and I am somewhat afraid he could be a very similarly misguided innocent as I have been. It would be all too ironic.

Brinniel - I am honestly quite puzzled how this game seems to orbit around her. She gets suspected, but never lynched. The evil QT have latched onto her (hopefully we'll learn more about that in three hours). If Legate had been considered seer, paranoid Brinn could have been behind that (just like with the Rikae kill, may I add). Everyone talks about her all the time but she is quite non-committal in her comments about people and keeps voting safely. Huine defended her in a striking way that could however be just as well wolf-on-wolf as wolf-on-innocent. If I would lynch anyone just to shed light on everybody's roles, I'd pick Brinn. But I'm not 100% she's a likely enough wolf that it's a good idea.

Eönwë - I can't quite put my finger on it, but my vibe of him in this game is very opportunistic and evasive, and he's been involved in several dodgy puddles (such as last minute voting in Huine-vs-Mac, or possibly his Sally vote yesterDay which I'd like to hear more about).


edit: xed with everyone

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Everybody sing along with me:

Dead innocents don't know anyone's role,
Dead innocents don't know anyone's role etc.

Which is to say, even though they're free of evil intentions, our beloved quarantined may still be wrong and the baddies can hijack a vote for a non-wolf.

No, they don't, but they have read Gal and Huine's interactions on the QT thread and know what lead them to pick Brinn yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Kath

The first vote after the reveal was Lottie's, half an hour after sally's vote, and that was with 7 minutes to go, and by the look of it almost every vote from then cross posted. Out of all 9 actual voters there, no one took the plunge of pushing forward another candidate fast enough. Very likely there are wolves who didn't want to be the first onto an alternative bandwagon who were watching the insanity with glee. But looking at the lateness of Legate and Mac's votes, who we now know were innocent, means not immediately throwing out an alternative doesn't automatically equal wolf.

Yes, but Legate for instance was quite convinced of Sally's guilt. Mac wasn't.

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.

Originally Posted by Lottie

The other important thing to consider here is, Lommy is a very good player who is very good at arguing for her innocence. If anyone could get away with encouraging the village to quarantine a Hunter who was very likely to take an innocent with her, it would be Lommy. With five wolves, I could see them agreeing that someone should be playing loud and bold, and that Lommy was the best person to do it.

Awwww, this warms my heart a little! But to be honest, I am a crappy and unhappy liar irl and it often shows in werewolf too *points at signature*

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'm with Lalaith here - it was very hard to think and plan around Lommy arguing that we should just quarantine Sally yesterDay. There wasn't another voice arguing with you, so we all just ended up quietly doing our own things without coordinating at all, and a lot of that (from what I remember) was just not being able to coordinate over you.

Then the question you should ask is probably why was there not another voice arguing with me? Why did everyone keep discussing Sally? Like it's been said, she revealed 45min before the deadline. Not as much time as would be ideal, but certainly plenty. Did the discussion loop around Sally because both innocents who wrongly suspected Sally and wolves thought lynching Sally was a good course of action? Then who was who?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.

Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Then the question you should ask is probably why was there not another voice arguing with me? Why did everyone keep discussing Sally? Like it's been said, she revealed 45min before the deadline. Not as much time as would be ideal, but certainly plenty. Did the discussion loop around Sally because both innocents who wrongly suspected Sally and wolves thought lynching Sally was a good course of action? Then who was who?

Ah, so it's the innocents' fault for listening to you?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

After yesterDay's fiasco I'd think what Lommy suggests here seems plain sense, not sure why you'd react so strongly to this.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Ah, so it's the innocents' fault for listening to you?

There were a lot of other people involved in yesterDay's lynch beyond Lommy, so we could at least entertain the possibility that Lommy's initial suspicion of sally was innocent and some wolves picked it up and ran with it. Or would you rather lynch her now and worry about her guilt later?
I don't like this exclusive fixation on Lommy. If you think she's a wolf, who do you think are her packmates?


I actually think both Lommy and Lottie sound genuine to me. Taking a look at Brinn's and Greenie's posts from yesterDay right now.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Lommy

No vote: Lhuna Not much to say about that, but speaking of her: don't look at her vote tally of yesterDay, it has several errors.

The several errors you speak of is where I removed sally and Mac's votes since they're no longer of consequence. Apart from that, our tallies are the same.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Greenie

I have to say I'm with Lommy on this one. The last-minute scramble is a recipe for disaster, and also harder to analyse the next Day if everyone crossposts and votes in a hurry.

Which has definitely been the case toDay.

But, if we're talking about voting earlier, are we in fact going back to Legate's points from Day 1 again?! The poor thing must be rolling in his quarantine bed.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

The several errors you speak of is where I removed sally and Mac's votes since they're no longer of consequence. Apart from that, our tallies are the same.

Ah, I didn't see you did that on purpose. But you also put Sally's reveal in the wrong place chronologically. (Before Zil's vote when it was actually after.)

Inzil's #930, then backing off immediately when people question it seems rather glaringly evil to me. If his intent was to "poke" me like he says, why back off before I have had a chance to reply?

Originally Posted by Eönwë

You've been on my suspicious list since Day 2

I know, and it doesn't make me any less suspicious of you.

Originally Posted by Inzil

This would be most workable if everyone here voted before the QT DL. I'm not sure all could manage it.

Interesting suggestion. Not obviously for toDay - I feel like it's a little too late, given that the qt vote is quite likely already in full swing. We don't want them to make a hurried last minute vote either. But doing this, however counterintuitive it may sound, *would* mean giving the power over a tie to a known innocent (unless the innocents in the qt are terribly disorganised and let Huine and Gal take advantage of it).

If we're doing a fake vote (again, not a bad idea but a bit late maybe), then I'll add a

+-Inzil


edit: help, xed with two actual votes and a bunch of other stuff!

[Lalaith]

After yesterDay's fiasco I'd think what Lommy suggests here seems plain sense, not sure why you'd react so strongly to this.

For my part, while I certainly don't want another last-minute panic, I would at least like to wait to see what the QTs have to say.
I haven't had time to do as much reading/analysis today as I wanted (busy at work). I've got various ideas of wolf combos floating about in my head but not enough time to sit down and plot them all in order to see if they stand up.
I feel still feel bad and somewhat dispirited about the shambles of yesterDay. Rune's term was "bummed out" and I know what he means.
So because I haven't had time to do new analysis toDay I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

[Lalaith]

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

[RL – Sorry for the long bit of silence, helping grieving family is always difficult the second day when shock wears off. I have some more time today so I’ll be catching up further. Thank you everyone for your words, I appreciate all of you. As for the Game, again, regardless of role and what’s happening in our RL let’s keep playing as a sort of solace in the storm. [/RL]

THE Ka <3 <3 What a lovely way to put it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

I have to say I'm with Lommy on this one. The last-minute scramble is a recipe for disaster, and also harder to analyse the next Day if everyone crossposts and votes in a hurry.

On a related note, I don't like the extent to which we are focusing on Lommy at the moment, and especially how Inzil has been pushing it since minutes into the start of the Day. Regardless of whether Lommyis a wolf or not, even regardless of whether we end up lynching her or not, we are only playing into the wolves' hands by focusing so heavily on one person. If Lommy is a wolf, she and her packmates are doing this on purpose to keep attention on her while the others sail by unnoticed (or are made to look better by crusading against her, *coughInzilcough*). She'd be more than capable of pulling off something like that, because, as Lottie said, she is a very good player and a better wolf than she gives herself credit for.

I'm off to have a quick look at Brinn now to try and figure out what on earth is going on there.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Then the question you should ask is probably why was there not another voice arguing with me? Why did everyone keep discussing Sally? Like it's been said, she revealed 45min before the deadline. Not as much time as would be ideal, but certainly plenty. Did the discussion loop around Sally because both innocents who wrongly suspected Sally and wolves thought lynching Sally was a good course of action? Then who was who?

I can only know what I was thinking and feeling at the time, which was of course clouded by my knowing that if Sally really was the Hunter, I was probably in real danger of being hunted. But I was so confused and overwhelmed that whole time. I wasn't able to come up with a coherent argument. I flopped between "she's the Hunter, I am absolutely not voting her, I don't want to die!" and "there's no way, she's gotta be a wolf, we need to just quarantine her". I could imagine that you might have just decided to go with the second option and not even consider that she might have been the Hunter. I could also imagine that you knew for a fact that she wasn't a wolf. But you definitely weren't reacting the same way I was, and the fact that no one else was able to make a coherent argument, either, suggests to me that my reaction - being confused and overwhelmed - might have been a really common reaction to have.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie - I don't like how she's been focusing on just me toDay, but I maintain that her last minute hunter panic, as well as her Huine vote, make her look more innocent than not.

You're not wrong about this, though. I'd like to see more from Boro, and while Zil sounds more innocent toDay, I haven't forgotten about him, either. I'll do a list in a minute here, because I do think there is a danger of letting the quieter players just slip right out of view.

[Loslote]

Feeling good about:
I don't trust anyone this much right now.

Feeling okay about:
Pitch - Ever since his vote on Huin, I've felt pretty good about Pitch. He comes across as genuine. Also, I don't think Huin would have pushed that hard for the GLP thing if there was actually a wolf in it.
Kath - She's seemed engaged and helpful. I like what she has to say.
Rune - He's seemed more genuine lately, I feel okay about him at this point.
Shasta - He's done some things that are very innocent-looking, though he hasn't really gotten his hands dirty wolf-hunting yet, so I'm not going to fully trust him.

Feeling nothing about:
Lalaith - She feels very neutral to me. I haven't seen anything that jumps out as suspicious, but if she turned out to be a submarine wolf, I wouldn't be shocked, either.
Brinn - Brinn doesn't strike me as especially suspicious, but with all the controversy around her, I can't say that I have a strong sense of her alignment one way or the other.

Feeling dubious about:
Greenie - She's flown right under my radar somehow, but I think she's been extremely helpful without actually pushing the village in any particular direction, which makes me feel a little uneasy. I don't have her at the top of my suspicion list, but I can't say that I trust her at all.
Lhuna - She's been very quiet, which I can't exactly blame her for, but I haven't seen any proof that I can trust her, either.
Eönwë - I don't have much of a read at all, but he does feel like he could possibly be a submarine wolf.
THE Ka - I don't trust her, but I don't have super solid reasons to suspect her, just a feeling.

Feeling bad about:
Zil - I've felt better about him toDay, but I can't ignore the timing of his vote or the weird behavior yesterDay, in particular how he wasn't adding any new suspicions after his Mac vote, which just felt like a way for a wolf to avoid tying himself to his packmates.
Lommy - Her gleeful attitude at the deadline yesterDay feels too different from how I and others were feeling for me to think we're coming at this game from the same perspective. I also find it suspicious that she almost completely ignored Boro yesterDay in favor of focusing on Sally and Zil. I understand she had other reasons to suspect them, but to just not mention Boro at all seems like they might be packmates.
Boro - I've been suspicious of Boro for Days now, and his vote for Mac looks pretty bad. I also don't at all like that he asked me how I was able to convince Sally - to me, that reads a wolf whose pack decided I probably wasn't the Seer, but who really wanted to prod a little to be sure.