Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Do you then disagree that Legate was killed for looking like a seer? If not, who do you think they thought he dreamed of?

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Well I would assume the seer to leave some clue about his known innocents, should he die without getting to reveal. I somewhat assumed everyone would at least consider this, but I see now that everyone doesn't. Unless you're a wolf who is trying to discredit innocent Rune because you might need him as a lynch option later?

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well I would assume the seer to leave some clue about his known innocents, should he die without getting to reveal. I somewhat assumed everyone would at least consider this, but I see now that everyone doesn't. Unless you're a wolf who is trying to discredit innocent Rune because you might need him as a lynch option later?

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

[A Little Green]

For Cutie purposes (even if a bit last minute) -

+- Inzil

Wouldn't be opposed to Boro, Brinn or Lhuna either.

[Nogrod]

The QT has voted.

They give their vote to ++ Brinni..

Nope.

Not this time.



They give their vote to

++ Lhunardawen

[Loslote]

How interesting!

[Lhunardawen]

Taking advantage of my weird timezone to greet sally a happy birthday! *waves and blows a kiss to the QT thread*

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lommy

So

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Zil -> Lommy

This is interesting. I'd still prefer Inzil, but I'm also tempted to follow the Cuties' lead on Lhuna. I was uneasy with her to begin with, and since she isn't the most obvious choice for the QT vote, it makes me wonder if they haven't deduced something from Huin that led them to believe she's a fellow of his.

[Boromir88]

That is some good news that makes me happy. Understand, I hold them in the highest respect at the moment.

G55 and Huey did well to make the QT vote useless for 2 days. Now it's changed.

A lot of people were looking for an alternative to sally here though, and Boro had previously stated he didn't want to lynch the Hunter, and with 8 votes to go another candidate could have garnered votes. Ok, self preservation, but did you actually believe sally? ~Kath

I was going back and forth. At first I agreed that it would be better not to lynch sally, there was roughly maybe 45 minutes until DL. But after revealing she just went and disappeared, while everyone else (except Lommy) was talking about other options. I think there was still about 15 minutes to go, someone asked for other options I said Zil or Lhuna. Then it was just a mad dash, where 5 minutes to go, there was still so many people who hadn't voted, sally was still gone, so I figured at that point she had to be a wolf.

I feel pretty good about Kath. I like her direct and straight way of asking questions.

Lommy's first post of the day wasn't exactly the most helpful. Although, we've all been there and terribly wrong about someone.

I'll most probably be following the QT's vote. Seems to me like they've got a good head on their shoulders now.

Edit: crossed with Rune and Lottie

He is the most suspicious to me. I wouldn't be too upset if any of the people who currently have votes were quarantined, but I think Boro is our best bet. ~Lottie

Of course, because you're not one of the people who have a vote. In all seriousness though, I don't know about you yet, but you can very easily have a day like Lommy's yesterday and be terribly wrong. That's a risk I guess we all take here.

[A Little Green]

I had a quick (and frustratingly inconclusive) look at Brinn yesterDay and toDay. I have to say I sort of get why she’s been scrutinised a lot less the last two days: her behaviour has been a lot less controversial.

Day 3:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I was really hoping that Kit was an ordo acting like the ranger, but alas.
The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.

This is Brinn reacting to Day 2 and Night 3. The tone doesn’t feel genuine to me, but that isn’t really an argument.
- Thinks there is at least one wolf in group that didn’t vote either Huin or Mac D2.
- Analyses Ka, doesn’t come to a conclusion either way; analyses Rune, concludes she is wary of him but not as suspicious as of some others; analyses Lhuna and finds her suspicious.
- Thinks Lalaith or Eonwe are most likely wolf-on-wolfers among Huin voters.
- List: most concerned about Inzil, Sally, Lhuna; somewhat worried about Boro, Rune, Lalaith, Eonwe; not sure about Kath, Ka, Shasta, Greenie, Lottie; feeling okay about Pitch, Lommy, Legate, Mac.
- Suspects Sally; after reveal, skeptical about its authenticity. Votes Sally because thinks real Hunter-Sally would have revealed her intended pick.

Day 4
- Reaction to previous Day again rubs me the wrong way, but again, this is a gut feeling thing more than anything else:

Originally Posted by Brinn

My gosh yesterDay was a mess. I am baffled why Sally last-minute switched to Mac - compared to everyone else, he appeared to be on the more innocent side. But I guess that at least takes the question of whether two wolves were on the table Day 2.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

I'm actually liking what Boro has to say toDay. Strange, I know. I'm still wary of him due to the timing of his vote on Mac, but maybe less so.

- List: leans innocent on Lottie, Lommy, Pitchwife, Shasta and Kath, going back and forth on myself and Boro, no read on Rune or Ka, suspects Lhuna and Inzil, and thinks there’s a fair chance either Eonwe or Lalaith is a wolf but probably not both. Later states Inzil as her fake vote preference.
- Discusses Legate kill – either safe and boring or “seer” who dreamed Rune and Huin.

And that’s it up to time of writing. Aside from a vague bad feeling about her opening posts both days, there’s nothing here that screams “wolf” to me – if not exactly screaming “innocent” either. Not massively useful, but at least I know I haven’t overlooked anything very glaring either way.

[Eönwë]

Wow, it looks like yesterDay got exciting after I left! It's pretty crazy how we've had two last-minute bandwaggons ending in an Infector being quarantined.

Will be back with more once I've had a chance to properly catch up on what's happened since I last posted.

[Eönwë]

The discussion about Legate's possible seerishness and implications bears more looking over (Zil, Lommy, Lhuna, THE Ka, Brinn - anyone else? Will need to look back over the whole day). I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least one other Infector in that group.

Later in the Day there's a specific discussion on the topic involving Rune - Lommy seems to think that if the Infectors thought Legate was the seer this makes Rune seem good, Brinn agrees, Lhuna disagrees, they get into a debate, and THE Ka joins on the side of Lommy. I wonder about this because I actually found myself agreeing with Lhuna while reading this, but clearly she was evil. And thinking about it some more I think I agree with Lommy. Also, since this was before the QT vote for Lhuna, there was no reason for anyone to distance themselves from her, so we have to assume the responses are genuine, or at least not tainted by the fact that Lhuna was a possible quarantine-candidate. One thing I wonder whether it would occur to an innocent to look through Legate's suspicions in such a way, but then again, I haven't played in a long while... In any case, I think the discussion there feels a little bit like there may be some re-hashing of the previous Night's discussion, so I'm a bit wary of Lommy, THE Ka, Brinn. And given that this is an indirect way of defending or not defending Rune, this could go either way for him - either he's being soft-suspected by a fellow (Lhuna) or put brought back to the table (i.e. returned to being a possible vote). Either is plausible. Addendum after reading (#1053 - whoa, over 1000 posts?!): looks like Lommy still supports this reading.


Also, another thing to look at is the pushback against the QT-vote-waggon now that we know Lhuna's role. There are obviously many innocent reasons to be suspicious, but I find it unlikely that no Infector was on that side. On the other hand, I would be surprised if all Infectors were on that side - joining a sudden vote-waggon for your packmate is probably a good way to avoid suspicion). One thing that might be interesting is to look at people's claimed reasons for voting Lhuna, which came pretty much out of nowhere - in this case it might be that over-justified votes are more suspicious than the under-justified ones, though the latter still merit wariness.

[Brinniel]

Reviewing yesterDay and toDay - some general thoughts:

Lommy voted Lhuna at a critical moment which makes me think her more innocent than not. That said, I do find Inzil's attack on her suspicious and there's nothing in his interactions with Lhuna that change that.

Lottie I also find more innocent due to reasons I stated yesterDay. I won't completely discount the possibility she could be a very bold wolf, but I find it less likely.

In light of learning Lhuna's role, I do actually find Eonwe to be more likely genuine. I looked back at the earlier part of yesterDay and he was gaining a fair amount a suspicion along with Lommy, Boro, and Inzil. Knowing there could be a chance he could be lynched, I don't think Lhuna would've voted him if he were a packmate.

Kath I've found to be more innocent because I've agreed with her top suspicions the past couple Days. If I'm completely wrong about Inzil, I'd reconsider her.

I analyzed The Ka a couple Days ago and couldn't come up with any solid conclusions on her. Looking at her posts yesterDay, I noticed she writes more about play tactics than focusing on other players. It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

Greenie and Boro I go back and forth on. Part of me is inclined to trust them and another part of me says don't.

And Lommy - thank you for your Lalaitholysis as I am too tired to do that sort of analysis myself. I don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions, but I can see how the wolves could've thought she may have been the seer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think I recall Lhuna ever posting after the wagon started to turn her way, which - I'm not one to judge people's availability (by any means ) but I don't really feel like the wagon was ever going to turn away from Lhuna. Kind of just a feeling I have, like, she was always going to be the QT.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (it's my new favorite thing, seriously)

I have yet to shake my bad feeling where Lommy is concerned. I entirely realize I'm not backing this up with much.

Point of data - the QTs each day have been people I haven't focused much effort on, feels like, maybe that's why I've felt so shruggy about them.

Greenie still my top read, that hasn't changed. Boro feels almost as "and what?" as I do currently. Starting to think he's not as connected to Lommy as I thought. Maybe.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Reviewing yesterDay and toDay - some general thoughts:

Lommy voted Lhuna at a critical moment which makes me think her more innocent than not. That said, I do find Inzil's attack on her suspicious and there's nothing in his interactions with Lhuna that change that.

Lottie I also find more innocent due to reasons I stated yesterDay. I won't completely discount the possibility she could be a very bold wolf, but I find it less likely.

In light of learning Lhuna's role, I do actually find Eonwe to be more likely genuine. I looked back at the earlier part of yesterDay and he was gaining a fair amount a suspicion along with Lommy, Boro, and Inzil. Knowing there could be a chance he could be lynched, I don't think Lhuna would've voted him if he were a packmate.

Kath I've found to be more innocent because I've agreed with her top suspicions the past couple Days. If I'm completely wrong about Inzil, I'd reconsider her.

I analyzed The Ka a couple Days ago and couldn't come up with any solid conclusions on her. Looking at her posts yesterDay, I noticed she writes more about play tactics than focusing on other players. It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

Greenie and Boro I go back and forth on. Part of me is inclined to trust them and another part of me says don't.

And Lommy - thank you for your Lalaitholysis as I am too tired to do that sort of analysis myself. I don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions, but I can see how the wolves could've thought she may have been the seer.

There's something about this post that I distrust - Brinn's reads of Greenie and Boro seem so very generic, it seems like it would have been very easy to place Pitch/Rune/myself there as well if she didn't have really anything to say about the three of us - but we were omitted entirely.

Obviously I know I'm not a wolf, so it's not (necessarily) a case of Brinnwolf forgetting her packmates. But it bothers me, even if maybe it shouldn't.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

For the record, he didn't single him out. I singled him out in my analysis. Because everyone else Legate called innocent he at least had some doubts about, or made a point in passing about how something they said could be suspicious. Rune is the only one he was unanimous about, but it was pretty vague.

edit: xed with everyone after Greenie INCLUDING THE TROLLING MOD

[Thinlómien]

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.

SORRY, Sally not Legate. It's the last lynchee who's the tie-breaker, not the last dead.


edit: xed with Zil

[Thinlómien]

So

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Zil -> Lommy

[Nogrod]

Managed to catch up only now, so here's the tally of the Day so far, a bit late...


Votes (1h 45 min. before the DL)

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy


EDIT: X'd with Lommy's list... It's always good to do a double-check.

[Inziladun]

Interesting from the QT, however, Lhuna is not my first choice.

I'm at work today, and some may recall that my line entails a level of unpredictability.
That said, I can't see my main suspect changing.

++Lommy

I'll try to get back, but no guarantee.

[Pitchwife]

+-Eönwë


For reasons explained yesterDay, plus I'd have expected an innocent to react a bit stronger to this continued suspicion.


An unordered list:



Zil and/or Lommy - on the fence

Boro - haven't studied him enough to form a qualified opinion.
Brinn and/or Greenie - wary for involvement in sallywagon, but apart from the bit from Greenie I quoted above nothing in yesterDay's posts really stood out as fishy
Lottie - leaning innocent
Rune - no wolfy vibes so far
Kath - see Rune
Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her
Lalaith - a bit like Lhuna but less so (does this make any sense?)
THE Ka - another one; like somebody said, she seems to exist in a bubble of her own at one remove from what else is happening
Shasta - not concerned so far, we'll see what happens when he gets more involved

[Eönwë]

Posts from wolves' last days that I think are likely to be important/revealing:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

It feels hypocritical to analyse these votes when I didn’t put one in.

DAY 3 VOTES (with Day 2, Day 1)

THE Ka -> Sally (Lottie 2, Brinniel 3)
QT -> Brinn (Brinn)
Eönwë -> Sally 2 (Hui 7, Urwen)
Kath -> Inzil (Inzil, G55 2)
Greenie -> Sally 3 (Mac 2, Mac)
Lommy -> Sally 4 (Mac, G55 5)
——HunterSally reveal——
Inzil -> Brinn 2 (Mac 5, G55 3)
Lottie -> Sally 5 (Hui 4, G55 4)
Lalaith -> Sally 6 (Hui 5, no vote)
Legate -> Sally 7 (Hui, Brinn 5)
Shasta -> Sally 8 (Mac 7, Pitch 2)
Brinn -> Sally 9 (Hui 6, G55 7)
Rune -> Inzil 2 (Lottie, Brinn 4)
Boro -> Sally 10 (Mac 6, Pitch)
Pitch -> Eonwe (Hui 3, Brinn 2)
No vote: Lhuna (Lommy, Lhuna)


Based on the voting patterns ALONE, these stand out to me at the moment:

Likely Innocent
Lottie
Cast a decisive Hui vote. Her reactions to being a possible Huntee looked genuinely innocent to me.

Pitch
Cast a decisive Hui vote. He believed sally’s reveal, so his vote for Eonwe shows integrity.


Bad
Eonwe
I still think his vote for Urwen was a throwaway.
I still believe his vote for Hui could be wolf-on-wolf.
He prefaced his vote for sally with
I do not understand this at all.

Lommy
I know she had been consistent about suspecting sally yesterDay, but she could be a wolf who knows that sally is likely to target an innocent based on her suspicions, so she boldly challenged her claim and pushed for her lynching. Two birds, one stone.

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this then afterwards saying this I don’t follow.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.


Should look more closely
Brinn
Mighty strange how all her votes came in towards the end of a successful bandwagon, even if we don’t count the Day 1 vote to save herself.

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Greenie
Primarily because she has voted for two known innocents so far

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS