Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

!"#¤%&/()(/&%%&

[censored] Boro!!!!

ARE

YOU

FREAKING

KIDDING

ME

Here I have sat like an IDIOT for DAYS thinking you're the seer and tearing my hair every time you made some "stupid slip" or defended me too openly or was "too obvious" like your last post yesterDay

and

I HAVE ALSO PROBABLY MADE MYSELF LOOK LIKE A FOOL bouncing around some fake suspicion of you while putting off actually considering your role "until the seer reveal, whether it's Boro, or if it's someone else I'm gonna look at him extra hard to make up for this" because I thought I'm being very clever "protecting the seer"

I KNEW I saw something going on there!!!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That Inzil QT, though. Rune was the counterwagon, as I recall (which was also a bit of a "huh" where I was concerned, QT vote notwithstanding.)

Eonwe voted Rune and tied him with Inzil at 2, which is interesting, and kinda makes me feel better about Rune. How likely is it the tally was innocent-vs-innocent yesterday? Fairly, I'd say, with Ka's vote at the end.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That Inzil QT, though. Rune was the counterwagon, as I recall (which was also a bit of a "huh" where I was concerned, QT vote notwithstanding.)

Eonwe voted Rune and tied him with Inzil at 2, which is interesting, and kinda makes me feel better about Rune. How likely is it the tally was innocent-vs-innocent yesterday? Fairly, I'd say, with Ka's vote at the end.

Yes, I think that's probably right.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I KNEW I saw something going on there!!!

Yeah, everyone's been holding back.

[Eönwë]

But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.

...why Brinn? Sorry, didn't follow that one.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

...why Brinn? Sorry, didn't follow that one.

I mean if Boro is a wolf. Day 1 was between (as far as the wolves knew) 2 innocents.

Lommy's reaction makes me feel better about her regardless.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I mean if Boro is a wolf. Day 1 was between (as far as the wolves knew) 2 innocents.

Lommy's reaction makes me feel better about her regardless.

And how do YOU know that?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And how do YOU know that?

As in, if Boro was a wolf, that was the slip that Lalaith picked up on. See her first post:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.

As Lottie pointed out, two of the most pivotal votes for Inzil yesterday. Neat.

Lommy I have felt better about here in the last couple minutes she's been yelling at Boro.

Brinn? Hmm.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If any one of Ka, Rune, or Eonwe isn't a wolf, it's got to be Shasta, Boro, or Brinn - but I think there are a minimum of two wolves in that Ka/Rune/Eonwe threesome, and I really think we need to lynch one of them toDay.

So if it isn't Boro, and it isn't Rune, then that leaves Shasta (who I don't really suspect) or Brinn, who I don't have a great read on. And...oh, wait...

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.

So maybe a Ka/Eonwe/Brinn pack makes a lot of sense after all.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But this makes me feel a lot better about Lommy and Brinn now.

??? Why??

The logical conclusion is the opposite, unless Boro is a wolf himself. And if he was a wolf, I don't think it would say much?

If Boro is an innocent and he didn't get killed for a seerish post that listed me and Brinn as the most innocent and you as the most suspicious, then I would think it rather points at either me or Brinn being guilty or you being innocent?

I know I'm innocent and I'm pretty suspicious of you, so this leads me to suspecting Brinn. (Whom I thought was most likely innocent but tbh I might have been a little muddled up by operating on the assumption she was "seer!Boro"'s other known innocent. )

But I'm really in a bit of a loop here because logic says I should reconsider Eönwë but then again he made that slip which implied he knows me and Brinn are innocent and sdfghjklkjh. Okay. One of Eönwë and Brinn surely is a wolf?? Unless plot twist it's Boro after all?

Guess what guys? I'm going to sleep.......


edit: xed with 1283 and onwards

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But I'm really in a bit of a loop here because logic says I should reconsider Eönwë but then again he made that slip which implied he knows me and Brinn are innocent and sdfghjklkjh. Okay. One of Eönwë and Brinn surely is a wolf?? Unless plot twist it's Boro after all?

But if it was a slip, which two would I be talking about? Because there are three people that are implied innocent by this - you, Zil, and Brinn. Zil has been confirmed.

[Boromir88]

I feel like needing to hide from Lommy for a moment.

Anyway I feel like you're someone I have a pretty good read on as I said from the start your flip-flopping reads like an actual argument with yourself I can imagine when you're innocent. When you're a wolf it's like since you already know guilt or innocent you force yourself to come up with a reason to flip-flop. I don't know other way to say it other than it doesn't look natural. A few times I reconsidered. The main one your first post after sally's lynch I said wasn't particularly helpful. But at that point I was more sure Lhuna's clean voting record was suspicious. Then when she turned out wolf I thought I'd just go for it and give the plan a try for the day.

In the end seer is still alive, so maybe it didn't work as I had intended, but to some extent it did. Since it didn't work fully as I intended, I thought there's no point in trying to do it again today.

Especially considering a fickle group that waits too long to get the QT vote before the action starts. Unless Rune's actually is a wolf then maybe it did more harm than good? I don't know, after still being alive I just didn't want the QT thinking I was the seer because we're getting down to the nitty-gritty where odd plans aren't worth the risk. And it was better to get it out now instead of waiting for the QT vote.

In an effort to move on...I stand by this from yesterday:

For what it's worth, I would say stay the course, if you weren't going to vote for Rune before the QT vote came out and are only considering him for those reasons than better to go with Ka.

Which I understood Lottie's response THE Ka didn't seem like a viable option at that point yesterday. She should be one today.

I'm rather torn with Eonwe at the moment. He was the one I was pegging down as a wolf, and the fact that my plan to be night-killed didn't happen makes me think that he's not. I jumped on him for his defense of his vote for Rune, because of the QT vote. Same reasons I'm suspicious of The Ka, her vote for Lhuna was a "well the QT says so."

Eonwe replied he'd been suspicious of Rune for days:

I've been suspicious of Rune since the beginning (early on I put it down to his bias against me, but he's done nothing to make me feel better about him), and there's a very very low probability of the QT trying to deceive us, unlike 3 players here.

Which didn't make sense, at least Rune wasn't one of his primary suspects. He always seemed to be on me, Zil, Lommy and sally.

The single funniest comment of the game was when Mac said something about apparently Eonwe could be convinced to lynch half the village. Which I thought was accurate, so maybe technically you can claim you were suspicious of Rune since the beginning. But he didn't seem like one of your primary considerations until the QT vote yesterday.

Edit: cross posting with a bunch

[Brinniel]

Geez people, you're making my head spin!

Boro - I just don't know what to think of him and all of this. Part of me wants to think him innocent, but honestly, it could go either way.

I'm rather bummed over the results of Inzil's lynching. I really thought I was right about him and now knowing his innocence has made me realize I need to rethink some people. One of which being Kath, who I felt okay about mainly due to the fact that I agreed with her suspicions and now I'm not so sure.

Lottie I'm also less sure about. I've initially thought her more innocent due to her Hui vote and the fact that she voted Sally when she could possibly be hunting her. But I can't discount the possibility Lottie could be a very bold wolf. Anyway, I think it less likely that she and Boro are both wolves.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

there is probably at least one wolf in the Zil-waggon (if Rune is innocent, possibly early on, if not, potentially also later), in the posts arguing to ignore/mistrust the QT vote, and/or of pushing for B]Zil[/B] as a vote-candidate. I suspect more than one, but off the top of my head I don't know who is in these categories. I think it is a top priority of the wolves to discredit an innocent-led QT that has led to the quarantining of one of their fellows.

I was reading through Day 5 again and got to wondering about Zil-voters and their opinion/interaction with the QT vote that Day or their stance on the QT vote in general. Apologies in advance (especially to you Rune, I know you're not too fond of them), but this is going to be a long list post due to the volume of content from yesterDay.
Note: It does not include quotes or references directly from any day prior to Day 5. This list took me nearly two hours to compile and fix for formatting, so if you want anything earlier you'll have to go do your own data hunting, sorry.

Zil-votes Day 5:

Kath – Inzil
Greenie – Inzil
Lommy – Inzil
Brinn – Inzil
Rune – Inzil
*Pitch – Inzil

*Selected by wolves, Night 6. Villager, Non-gifted.

Previously suspected to point of voting on prior Days: Brinn, Rune.

Opinion of QT vote Day 5: Ignore/Mistrust or Follow:

Kath -
#1097:

And the QT made an excellent showing of themselves, too. YesterDay, quite a few people put down their planned vote options long before the QT vote had to be made. Is that something we want to do again toDay on the assumption that it did help?

(Ref. to Lhuna QT vote Day)

Lal's push for the village listening to the QT I think again would have made the wolves suspect she might be the Seer. There goes the QT literally naming a wolf an no one seems to listen, so she brings it to the forefront.

#1103: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only references Eonwe’s pattern of voting earlier since Hui-vote Day.
#1109: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only apologises for forgetting to put ‘fake vote’ choices in previous post and resumes doing so.
#1120: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. No indirect mention of QT.
#1149: Vote-post. Mention of QT:

I was holding on to see what the QT vote would be, but I do have to go, and I don't have time to look into the possible reasoning behind this, so I will go with what I said earlier.

(Ref. to post #1120 mention of Lhuna and Zil)
- No further posts for Day 5 -

Greenie -
#1057: Some mention of previous QT vote in regard to timing from other players of personal votes. Makes note of when players have voted before or after QT vote, specifically in Pitch and Rune analysis.
#1086:

The Lhunawagon came about pretty quickly and only after the QT vote; though a few of us had said they found her somewhat suspicious, it looked like most people were pretty surprised by the QT picking her. So yes, I'd expect to see some wolf-on-wolf among the Lhuna voters, but not an orchestrated plot to sacrifice her.

(Ref. to selected Boro quote about Lhuna and possible wolf-on-wolf vote plan)
#1092:

Lommy makes a good point about giving the QT some warning about what we're up to.

Gives ‘fake-vote’ prior to QT vote deadline.
#1169: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts for Day 5 -

Lommy –
#1053: In reply to quote from Zil:

it is true that he can talk about his live fellows in an incriminating way and that way the qt innocents have access to evidence we don't. Something to consider... (Not that I'm saying we should always follow the qt vote, even though that would make this game easier.

#1063: Lalaitholysis post. No direct mention of QT outside of selected quoted material in regard to Lalaith.
#1066: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1067:

there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.
This actually possibly more as a reminder to the QT than ourselves.

#1068:

if we want to orchestrate some communication deal with them, or if we want to agree to vote BEFORE them, then now would be the time to discuss that.

#1089:

We have the most data so far, we could coordinate something with the qt, but nothing is happening.

Statement followed by suspicion list and explanation of each selection.
#1091:

I think the least we can do is to give the qt pointers about how we might want to lynch toDay, like Boro just did. Since it looks pretty quiet here, I have spent some time on the Night kill and making a list (including a quick look at yesterDay's votes while making that), I might retreat for a little while. On Monday I spent most of my waking hours playing werewolf (did I mention I'm temporarily unemployed until June 2nd? ), and to be honest, I don't have the stamina to repeat that today. So, I'll be off for a few hours at least, and I'll make a mock vote if it helps the qt

Followed by ‘fake-vote’ prior to QT vote deadline.
#1101:

The whole whether to follow the QT's choice was really a whole another kettle of fish. If the QT had voted for someone I did not suspect very much, I wouldn't have followed their vote. But since they voted for someone I did suspect, it was one factor that made me pick her over my other suspects (some of whom I suspected more). I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.

(Ref. to Kath about Lhuna-vote)
#1102: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1112:

Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.

#1122:

I would really REALLY like to know what's going on in the QT. But I should probably be careful what I wish for...

#1125:

I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much.

#1132: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1140: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1152: Mentions surprise at Rune QT vote. Plans to go back and check Rune’s posts for possible answers.
#1155: Reply to Pitch about Lhuna deciding QT vote. Sides with quite unlikely, only if innocents in QT made a mess.
#1160: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1194:

Also I don't "distrust" the QT vote. I just don't think they know so much more than us that we should follow them without a question, or that their vote couldn't be tampered with by the evil side (even though that's quite unlikely). There's a difference.

(Ref. to QT Rune-vote)
#1196: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1198:

How do you determine which players are "opposite" choices in a way that you can manipulate with? And why would any ordo trust a known hunter/ranger's word any more than a known fellow ordo's?

(Ref. to Ka (mine) speculation on innocents trusting gifted decisions in QT)
#1202: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Only analysis of Rune past posts.
#1205: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1209: Vote-post.

And I'm not really convinced about lynching Rune toDay. It doesn't really help that basically the two people who I suspect the most have been the ones to jump on the QT vote.

#1218, 1228, 1230,1238: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -

Brinn -
#1056: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1076:

It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

(Ref. to analysis of Ka (me) Lhuna-vote timing)
#1119: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it. Gives ‘fake-vote(s)’.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1154:

Considering he hasn't been heavily discussed here toDay, I wonder if the QT is reading into something we're not seeing.
I'm not sure if I'm ready to follow the QT vote toDay, but I definitely think he's worth taking another look at.

(Ref. to QT Rune-vote)
#1215,1231: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -

Rune -
#1095:

Seems quite plain to me. It is an innocent who starts to second guess her own reasoning because of external factors.

(Ref. to Lommy about Lal’s comment on previous QT Lhuna-vote)
#1096: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1098: Gives ‘fake-vote’. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1163: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1179: Reply to Zil, doesn’t believe QT-vote could be correct twice, but understands why they would say such.

I expected to get a bit of attention today, but honestly I thought it would have regarding the timing of my vote yesterday (considering Lhuna turned out being an infector). Really surprised as both Legate and Lalaith to be reasonably convinced of my innocence.

(Ref. to direct quote of QT vote that Day)
#1193:

Though taking recent events into consideration I would like to stress that an innocent QT thread is clearly quite capable of mistakes.

#1213:

Nor do I understand why an innocent would be so eager to support the QT thread, suggesting all that doesn't are suspicious... too brasen too opportunistic for an innocent.

(Ref. to Eonwe role speculation and previous voting pattern)
#1214: Reply to Loslote’s reasoning for voting along with QT vote for Day over previous suspicions of Ka.
#1217: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1224:

If nothing else today has made me quite firm in my belief that Inziladun and Eönwë are two of our remaining infectors. Brinn was my third choice, but I am not sure it adds up anymore.
I get why it is compelling to want to leave your vote in the hands of known innocents, nobody likes making difficult choices, but the way it was seized upon by Eönwë and Inziladun just confirms my suspicions.

#1225, 1234: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -

*Pitch – (For reference):
#1055: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1059:

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

Pitch in reply:

Considering that yesterDay was the first Day this actually made sense, it'll have to be a small one.

#1060, 1062: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1071:

It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.

#1093, 1100: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1118:

All good points.

(Ref. to Lommy’s post #1112 on helping QT vote)
#1127: Gives ‘fake-vote’. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
-POST QT Day Vote-
#1150:

Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?

(Ref. to QT Rune-vote)
#1157:

Yes. I meant whether there was a tie and she broke it. But we can't know that.

(Ref. to Zil’s statement that Lhuna in QT would only have power to break tie)
#1171:

All it would have taken is an early innocent vote for Rune, three baddies pile on that, votes are tied, Lhuna breaks it. It's possible.
But assuming the innocents voted wolf!Rune conventiently happens to work in your favour, doesn't it?

Reply to Zil.
#1181:

I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath)

#1191:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I'm also very suspicious of anyone trying to immediately discredit/minimize what the QT has said - obviously, the innocents don't know anything, so reasonable doubt is merited, but I don't like these two reactions

Reply to Eonwe:

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

#1211: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1219: Vote-post. No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
#1239: No direct mention of QT vote or opinion on it.
- No further posts Day 5 -


I haven't checked the thread since two hours ago, so if any of this has been answered, I apologise again. On that and with a long day tomorrow, I'm going to sleep.

[Eönwë]

Back briefly. Just realised that I forgot to go back and add the newly-known innocents to my previous vote list. So here it is again, fixed:

Bold is evil, italics is good.

Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7



Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.

Wow, that's giving Boro a lot of power, isn't it? To quote Pitch: *ping*

[Eönwë]

I haven't really had a chance to collect my thoughts on each person left, and given the last two Days, it looks like I probably should start reassessing everyone. So I'm skimming over my old posts in the thread to see if there's anything I've forgotten/need to follow up on now that we know more. These are the concrete thoughts I've mentioned in the thread about about reasons people looked good or bad (more than just feelings/vibes/sub-radar location) that are still relevant:




Thinlómien

• Neutral: Seemed (to me on Day 1) to avoid getting too deep into the fake vote discussion.
• Bad: In Day 2, it looked to me like she was attacking Boro and then backed off once it was gaining traction.
• Bad Early on in Day 3, discounted the idea of wolf-on-wolf for Huin. We only know Lhuna and Huin's roles, so we'll see whether there were any in time, but in principle I didn't like this at the time.
• Probably good: Her all out on the Sally quarantine (originally I thought this didn't exonerate her - and it doesn't - but it does look more good than bad).
• ????: She's on Hui's list of suspects. The others turned out to be innocent. Does this mean that she's the one wolf he snuck in there or just another innocent he wanted to quarantine/infect? Not sure.
• ??: Mentioned by Lhuna as a possible wolf.
• Bad: Flimsy case against me based on Legate-seeming-like-a-seer theory.

Loslote

• Too under my radar for anything apparently.

Kath

• Bad: Quoting known-wolf Lhuna saying my voting was suspicious, and then saying it for herself.

A Little Green

• Too under my radar for anything apparently.

Boromir88

• Bad: Lots of strange/not-actually-helpful posting on Day 1
• Bad: His focused Day 2 post felt like it was trying to narrow the general discussion (and made him look better by omission).
• Bad: Again focused on a specific subset, and did the same thing as Lommy in avoiding talking about wolf-on-wolf. Again, we'll see in future whether this shielded anyone.
• ??: Mentioned by Lhuna as a possible wolf.

Brinniel

• Neutral: Seemed (to me on Day 1) to avoid getting too deep into the fake vote discussion.

Rune Son of Bjarne

• Bad: Admitted that he naturally suspects me, but went along with that anyway.

THE Ka

• TBD: If Brinn is evil, could've engaged in some risky wolf-on-wolf on Day 1 (if she didn't think Brinn-voting was as likely as it actually was).
• TBD: Expanded votes on Day 3. At the time, I was suspicious because I thought it was possible Mac was evil. Looking back, this still could be bad (but not as bad) if Lottie is good - she may have been trying to start a Lottie-waggon to prevent a Hui quarantine as Mac-suspicion was losing steam.
• Bad: Potentially trying to pin me and Shasta together in suspicion.

Shastanis Althreduin
Good:

• Good: His #322 looked like it was intended to minimize the Kit discussion. Though it should be noted that it could've been wolvish (and calculated to look good, and low-cost if he already was confident she was actually the ranger), but that seems less likely.
• TBD: If Brinn is evil, he added added Pitch to viable alternative candidates.
• Bad: Holding his Day 2 vote (when a wolf was on the line) until it didn't matter.
• Bad: Potentially trying to pin me and THE Ka together in suspicion.
• Possible wolf slip, followed up by 'subtly' pretending to be the seer.

Topics not included above:

• The Rune-Legate discussion (See my #1075). There's a chance that Lhuna could have argued against Rune seeming innocent to leave open the possibility of throwing a packmate under the bus, but again, this needs to be looked over in more detail.

Ok, what does this tell me? I've definitely had too much tunnel-vision. I need to reassess everyone.

[Eönwë]

Ok, let's analyse the votes day-by-day:

Day 1
We can only tell anything if Brinn turns out to be evil, otherwise it's three (as far as the wolves knew at least) innocents.

If Brinn is evil, then THE Ka could theoretically be trying a kind-of-dangerous-but-not-too-dangerous wolf-on-wolf. All non-Brinn voters other than Brinn herself (Boro, Kath, Shasta, Lottie, Greenie, me, Lommy) could also theoretically be suspicious too. So if Brinn is evil, only Rune really looks good.

Summary: if Brinn is evil, Rune looks good.




Day 2

Lhuna's relatively safe vote for Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie's vote for Mac could've been a way to protect Lommy or Brinn if Greenie and at least one of them is evil.

If Lottie is evil, Rune and THE Ka's votes could be safe 'throwaway' wolf-on-wolf votes to come back to later. If she's good and Mac interest seemed to be waning (I seem to remember Sally's at least came suddenly), it could have been a late attempt to start a counterwaggon to Hui's

Boro's vote directly allowed for a chance to save Hui.

Lottie's Hui vote could have been semi-dangerous wolf-on-wolf, but is admittedly a bit risky.


Probably the only really suspicious vote this Day was Boro's, and to a lesser extent the Lottie-voters (Rune and THE Ka) - the rest are a lot more speculative.


Summary: Bad vote from Boro, kind-of-bad votes from Rune and THE Ka.




Day 3
Hard to tell disentangle this mess. Wolves could easily hide among Sally voters. Sally voters after the reveal (Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro) are more suspicious than before (THE Ka, me, Greenie, Lommy). Rune's late vote looks kind of throwaway, and may have been planted as a way to bring back Zil suspicion in future (as a I mentioned previously, it looked like the Zil vote was semi-planned). Kath's was earlier, so it was still possible to quarantine him at that point.

Summary: Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro, and Rune are a little suspicious based on this.





Day 4
Non-Lhuna voters after the QT vote are generally more suspicious: Lottie, Greenie, Rune, Boro , with Rune and Boro looking the worst of these (really trying to keep Lhuna from being quarantined). The only Lhuna-voter that could have been hiding is Brinn - that's the first Lhuna vote where her fate was already sealed.

Summary: Rune and Boro especially bad, followed by Lottie, Greenie, and Brinn.





Day 5
Hard to analyze. I'm still pretty suspicious of anyone who didn't vote Rune, but we know at least one innocent did that so (and clearly there aren't 5 wolves left), so I'll have to think about it.

[Eönwë]

Correction: in my post #1302, the seer thing was clearly meant to be Bad and go under Boro.

[Kath]

Pitch then. Going with the assumption the wolves thought he was the Seer, so I'm reading with that mindset.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Pitch

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed

Well unless Lottie is a wolf and she's been worrying about this for five Days, I think this seems an unlikely source for a Seer hint.

Got involved in the fake votes discussion and viewed Legate as the leader of it, which made him ping. Then later finds G55's interpretation of events suspicious. It looks like he hadn't dreamed of Legate or G55 at this point then as the G55 suspicion came later.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

So he hadn't dreamed of Mac, either.

Makes a sort of list post about the village but seems non-committal on everyone.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

Well so he definitely hadn't dreamed of Rikae or Kitanna. Further suspicion of Brinn afterwards.

Votes Brinn. Thinks Eonwe and Greenie made throwaway votes.

I mean, none of his suspicions seem anything but motivated by what he's seen in the game thread. At a push, Lottie for mentioning her twice in possible wolf lists. But it's so banter driven in the first instance and reactionary to being suspected in the second that I can't really see that being the case. Also, he flip flops on her in the next two Days, so I don't think that makes sense.

Day 2
Suggests Rikae's death implicates Brinn but then says that's maybe too obvious. Doesn't look like a dream.

Questions Hui's interpretation of his words and pings Inzil.

Speaks against Hui again. Doesn't look like he's dreamed Mac here as he's still unsure about him.

Gets drawn into the Kit discussion.

Looks at Inzil after pinging him and doesn't draw much in the way of conclusions, so seems like he didn't dream him.

Looks at Greenie and seems to find her overall innocent. A Greenie-wolf could use this as cover. If Pitch was the Seer, she looks good.

Some suspicion of Legate so hadn't dreamed him.

Said he'd vote Mac or Inzil so hadn't dreamed them.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I could still vote Zil, or I could actually get behind Legate's Hui vote. A few of Hui's posts look like subtly sewing suspicion while not getting too involved in anything.

Third time he's brought up Hui. Then goes for the vote and ties Hui with Mac, making the lynch more likely to happen.

Ok, I can maybe see the wolves wondering about Pitch having dreamed of Hui here, and then going for it once there was enough support to push for the lynch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Pitch

Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

This is his first post, so pushing for Eonwe early on. And he sticks with this suspicion. Eon-wolf pack concerned that he got Hui the Day before and now him too, or wolves thinking even if Pitch isn't the Seer this is a big push at an innocent Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Could well be. There were a few exchanges between Hui and Greenie where it looked like he was taking guidance from her, so them being packmates doesn't seem unplausible.

It doesn't look like he'd dreamed of Hui and Greenie as both those names came up on Day 2.

Seems to flip flop on Brinn so an unlikely dream. Still suspicious of Inzil so didn't dream him.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I find it hard to reconcile Lottie's backing off of Mac and adding a fourth wheel to the Huiwagon with wolvishness. Also, would Hui have soft-suspected two of his packmates explicitly in connection with each other? I don't think so. I'm still leaning more towards Zil.

Right, so flipflopping on Lottie suggests not a dream.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Eönwë and to a lesser degree Greenie. Not sure about the others.

Hmm, I think that makes Greenie a less likely dream. If he'd dreamed her and Eonwe and found them both wolves then that 'lesser degree' bit wouldn't be there. And obviously if he'd dreamed her innocent she wouldn't be there at all.

Ends up voting Eonwe even amidst all the sally madness.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Pitch

It really sucks to loose Legate - maybe the only player I felt I could trust (although I felt pretty good about Mac too yesterDay).

Possible dream of Legate.

Still pinging Greenie but votes Eonwe - so very consistent with this.

Day 5
Focuses in on Boro, then backs off. Unlikely dream. (With Pitch=Seer hat off, also looks like Pitch did buy the hints Boro was putting out as he does back off.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree.

But was still unsure over Greenie in that post so I still think an unlikely dream.

Pre-votes Eonwe and Inzil.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath).

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

I'd say he hadn't dreamed Rune as he was nearly swayed by Lommy's counter argument at one point so didn't seem to have a real definite on him.

I know I've been banging on about the wolves must be going after people they think are the Seer, but I have to admit that I'm scratching my head a bit with this one. Eonwe is the big take away from it, and it could be the wolves thinking Pitch had pegged Hui and now also Eonwe, and wanted to kill him before he could catch any more of them even if that means Eonwe goes down with him. That's quite a fatalistic attitude though.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie re: Brinn

You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.

I'm not sure what to make of Brinn at this stage - I'm somewhat worried about how she's floating by without committing to anything that could become controversial, and I've reached a point where I get nervous if someone agrees with me because what if they're a wolf seeking brownie points. But regardless of what Brinn is, I think the argument for Boro and Eonwe being on the same side does make sense. As in -

The wolves are bound to be pretty desperately looking for the Seer at this stage, and if half the village noticed Boro's hints, they're bound to have done. Nobody's been able to find anything that looks half that "Seerish" in Pitchwife's posts. Sure, the wolves could have guessed Boro was bluffing; but would they really be willing to take the risk and leave him alive? So far, this pack's Night kills have looked rather safe and cautious than bold. So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

As for the Eonwe connection - if it's option 1), this would mean either that Lommy and/or Brinn are wolves, and/or that Eonwe is innocent. More specifically, the Pitchwife kill doesn't make sense if they're going for the Seer, Eonwe is a wolf and Boro isn't; both Pitch and Boro suspected Eonwe, and I can't see how Pitch could have looked more Seer-ish to them than Boro. So I'd say if the wolves are gunning for the Seer and Boro isn't one of them, then Eonwe likely isn't, either. Make sense?

If it's option 2), meanwhile, the above would explain why he's coming out now instead of letting it play out and fake-revealing at a later point. If we believe Boro's claim, then Eonwe being a likely innocent is a fairly logical conclusion. Eonwe was under a lot of fire yesterDay and quite a bit toDay, too. Something like this could be the only thing keeping both him and Boro alive and distracting the village for the 2 (!!!) days they'd need in order to win.

(I've just had a horrible thought. What if we have a pack of Boro/Eonwe/Kath? We wouldn't know what hit us.)

All this aside, I do think it's more likely that Boro is innocent. But I also stand by my conclusion that this means Eonwe likely is, too.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.