Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Regardless of whether Boro is telling the truth or not, I think it's likely the QT'ed innocents believed him to be the Seer. We could test that theory with having them follow Boro's vote again today, if we thought it mattered.

Wow, that's giving Boro a lot of power, isn't it? To quote Pitch: *ping*

[Eönwë]

I haven't really had a chance to collect my thoughts on each person left, and given the last two Days, it looks like I probably should start reassessing everyone. So I'm skimming over my old posts in the thread to see if there's anything I've forgotten/need to follow up on now that we know more. These are the concrete thoughts I've mentioned in the thread about about reasons people looked good or bad (more than just feelings/vibes/sub-radar location) that are still relevant:




Thinlómien

• Neutral: Seemed (to me on Day 1) to avoid getting too deep into the fake vote discussion.
• Bad: In Day 2, it looked to me like she was attacking Boro and then backed off once it was gaining traction.
• Bad Early on in Day 3, discounted the idea of wolf-on-wolf for Huin. We only know Lhuna and Huin's roles, so we'll see whether there were any in time, but in principle I didn't like this at the time.
• Probably good: Her all out on the Sally quarantine (originally I thought this didn't exonerate her - and it doesn't - but it does look more good than bad).
• ????: She's on Hui's list of suspects. The others turned out to be innocent. Does this mean that she's the one wolf he snuck in there or just another innocent he wanted to quarantine/infect? Not sure.
• ??: Mentioned by Lhuna as a possible wolf.
• Bad: Flimsy case against me based on Legate-seeming-like-a-seer theory.

Loslote

• Too under my radar for anything apparently.

Kath

• Bad: Quoting known-wolf Lhuna saying my voting was suspicious, and then saying it for herself.

A Little Green

• Too under my radar for anything apparently.

Boromir88

• Bad: Lots of strange/not-actually-helpful posting on Day 1
• Bad: His focused Day 2 post felt like it was trying to narrow the general discussion (and made him look better by omission).
• Bad: Again focused on a specific subset, and did the same thing as Lommy in avoiding talking about wolf-on-wolf. Again, we'll see in future whether this shielded anyone.
• ??: Mentioned by Lhuna as a possible wolf.

Brinniel

• Neutral: Seemed (to me on Day 1) to avoid getting too deep into the fake vote discussion.

Rune Son of Bjarne

• Bad: Admitted that he naturally suspects me, but went along with that anyway.

THE Ka

• TBD: If Brinn is evil, could've engaged in some risky wolf-on-wolf on Day 1 (if she didn't think Brinn-voting was as likely as it actually was).
• TBD: Expanded votes on Day 3. At the time, I was suspicious because I thought it was possible Mac was evil. Looking back, this still could be bad (but not as bad) if Lottie is good - she may have been trying to start a Lottie-waggon to prevent a Hui quarantine as Mac-suspicion was losing steam.
• Bad: Potentially trying to pin me and Shasta together in suspicion.

Shastanis Althreduin
Good:

• Good: His #322 looked like it was intended to minimize the Kit discussion. Though it should be noted that it could've been wolvish (and calculated to look good, and low-cost if he already was confident she was actually the ranger), but that seems less likely.
• TBD: If Brinn is evil, he added added Pitch to viable alternative candidates.
• Bad: Holding his Day 2 vote (when a wolf was on the line) until it didn't matter.
• Bad: Potentially trying to pin me and THE Ka together in suspicion.
• Possible wolf slip, followed up by 'subtly' pretending to be the seer.

Topics not included above:

• The Rune-Legate discussion (See my #1075). There's a chance that Lhuna could have argued against Rune seeming innocent to leave open the possibility of throwing a packmate under the bus, but again, this needs to be looked over in more detail.

Ok, what does this tell me? I've definitely had too much tunnel-vision. I need to reassess everyone.

[Eönwë]

Ok, let's analyse the votes day-by-day:

Day 1
We can only tell anything if Brinn turns out to be evil, otherwise it's three (as far as the wolves knew at least) innocents.

If Brinn is evil, then THE Ka could theoretically be trying a kind-of-dangerous-but-not-too-dangerous wolf-on-wolf. All non-Brinn voters other than Brinn herself (Boro, Kath, Shasta, Lottie, Greenie, me, Lommy) could also theoretically be suspicious too. So if Brinn is evil, only Rune really looks good.

Summary: if Brinn is evil, Rune looks good.




Day 2

Lhuna's relatively safe vote for Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie's vote for Mac could've been a way to protect Lommy or Brinn if Greenie and at least one of them is evil.

If Lottie is evil, Rune and THE Ka's votes could be safe 'throwaway' wolf-on-wolf votes to come back to later. If she's good and Mac interest seemed to be waning (I seem to remember Sally's at least came suddenly), it could have been a late attempt to start a counterwaggon to Hui's

Boro's vote directly allowed for a chance to save Hui.

Lottie's Hui vote could have been semi-dangerous wolf-on-wolf, but is admittedly a bit risky.


Probably the only really suspicious vote this Day was Boro's, and to a lesser extent the Lottie-voters (Rune and THE Ka) - the rest are a lot more speculative.


Summary: Bad vote from Boro, kind-of-bad votes from Rune and THE Ka.




Day 3
Hard to tell disentangle this mess. Wolves could easily hide among Sally voters. Sally voters after the reveal (Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro) are more suspicious than before (THE Ka, me, Greenie, Lommy). Rune's late vote looks kind of throwaway, and may have been planted as a way to bring back Zil suspicion in future (as a I mentioned previously, it looked like the Zil vote was semi-planned). Kath's was earlier, so it was still possible to quarantine him at that point.

Summary: Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro, and Rune are a little suspicious based on this.





Day 4
Non-Lhuna voters after the QT vote are generally more suspicious: Lottie, Greenie, Rune, Boro , with Rune and Boro looking the worst of these (really trying to keep Lhuna from being quarantined). The only Lhuna-voter that could have been hiding is Brinn - that's the first Lhuna vote where her fate was already sealed.

Summary: Rune and Boro especially bad, followed by Lottie, Greenie, and Brinn.





Day 5
Hard to analyze. I'm still pretty suspicious of anyone who didn't vote Rune, but we know at least one innocent did that so (and clearly there aren't 5 wolves left), so I'll have to think about it.

[Eönwë]

Correction: in my post #1302, the seer thing was clearly meant to be Bad and go under Boro.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not going to pretend that I understand the fine details of Boromir’s interaction with the QT thread, but I am inclined to believe his “reveal”. Personally I thought there was a chance he was the seer (i definitely had no better leads), so I decided to steer clear of him for a while and focus attention elsewhere. Reading Lommy's post I realise that there are better ways to help a potential seer. I was wondering why he kind of turned on me yesterday, as he had mostly seen me in a favorable light, but I ended up concluding that if he was the seer then he had yet to dream of me.

If he is right that QT followed his hints, then how would the known innocents have kept their trust in him a secret from the infected? Is there something I am missing?

I have briefly skimmed through the posts, and nothing much has really changed my perspective.
As I might have mentioned yesterday, I don’t think I am capable of imagining a scenario where Eönwë isn’t a wolf.

[A Little Green]

I've finally caught up on everything that happened yesterDay and toDay! From now on, if I say someone looks blatantly wolfish, please lay off them as they’re probably innocent.

Overall general impressions? Lommy's reaction to Boro makes her look very innocent. (Also I can relate.) THE Ka is probably my best lead where possible wolves are concerned. I'm re-evaluating Rune, too. I need to do some further thinking re: Boro and Eonwe as both give me a headache.

So starting from yesterDay -

Originally Posted by Kath

In response to Boro's comments. Boro had suggested a pack of Lhuna, Lottie, Inzil + one more. Greenie seems to discount Lottie from this list and I agree based on the reasons I gave previously. Boro and Greenie - what linked Lhuna and Inzil for you, given you seemed to agree on that point?

I didn't really see a link between Lhuna and Inzil at that point if I'm honest (that was before we found out Lhuna's role). Rather that I suspected both of them and didn't see them as actively incompatible with each other, either.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie votes Inzil for being the most suspicious and mentioned suspicion of Lhuna and Boro. Having previously said you'd be tempted to follow the QT, Greenie, why the decision to stick to Inzil in the end?

Fair question. I did seriously consider it, but in the end decided to go for Inzil because he was my top suspect at the time and I felt the argument against him was stronger. Also, a few others already had a vote by that point and none of them were people I felt very good about, so there was also an element of "que sera sera and let's see who defends whom and what falls out". Another element is probably a personality thing - I'm not good with quick changes. I might as well just stop waiting until after the QT vote since getting possible new information very shortly before I need to make my decision tends to lead to me ignoring the new information as I don't have enough time to process it properly.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm not sure about Eönwë-Shasta but I keep seeing Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta as things. But it's hard for me to evaluate it because I know both Shasta and Eönwë are among Greenie's best 'downs buddies so that might make them likely to lowkey team up regardless of their alignments, especially if they were innocents genuinely thinking the other one innocent too.

True, I might have a bit of a blind spot where those two are concerned. I still think Shasta looks more innocent than not (especially if THE Ka does turn out to be a wolf) but I'm starting to get confused about Eonwe.

Re: Rune. If Boro is right and the Cuties only voted for Rune because they thought Boro was the Seer, the information value of the QT vote is somewhat diminished. That said, it also doesn't automatically mean that Rune is off the hook, either. I found this point by Lommy noteworthy, regardless of the actual motivation behind the QT vote:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Now that you mention it, I guess you could read me and Lhuna's exchange as Lhuna trying to look good by pointing out a flaw in my reasoning, while it didn't really work because it didn't look like a flaw to anyone who didn't know Rune is a wolf?

If Rune is a wolf, I would hazard a guess that THE Ka is too. Remember how she compared me and Lhuna's arguments (in a manner that I can't call anything but weird) and came to the conclusion that mine is better? How convenient if Rune was her packmate and she was basically saying "shh Lhuna, let the innocents faultily conclude our packmate is innocent".

Particularly that first paragraph - I remember thinking that something in Lhuna argument against Lommy's conclusion about Rune seemed off, and couldn't really put a finger on it. I think this is a possibility. And speaking of Lommy's theory of Rune and Ka being fellows, Ka's reaction to yesterDay's QT vote isn't exactly reassuring. It's just noncommittal enough as not to come across as a defence of Rune, while sowing further doubt about whether we should trust the QT pick:

Originally Posted by THE Ka

As for the QT vote... not expecting that and I don't really see why Rune.

Also on Rune, this gave me pause as well:

Originally Posted by Lommy

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

This is also possible - actually it reminds me of Lommy and Huin's conversation on D1 about how doing "what you always do" is a natural cover for a wolf.

And that's all I've got from yesterDay. I picked out quite a bit to comment on from toDay as well, but that'll have to wait - I'm currently on sick leave because I can't sit in front of the computer for longer than about 15 minutes at a time so this post took a few hours to write. I'll come back and continue in a while!

[Kath]

Pitch then. Going with the assumption the wolves thought he was the Seer, so I'm reading with that mindset.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Pitch

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed

Well unless Lottie is a wolf and she's been worrying about this for five Days, I think this seems an unlikely source for a Seer hint.

Got involved in the fake votes discussion and viewed Legate as the leader of it, which made him ping. Then later finds G55's interpretation of events suspicious. It looks like he hadn't dreamed of Legate or G55 at this point then as the G55 suspicion came later.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

So he hadn't dreamed of Mac, either.

Makes a sort of list post about the village but seems non-committal on everyone.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

Well so he definitely hadn't dreamed of Rikae or Kitanna. Further suspicion of Brinn afterwards.

Votes Brinn. Thinks Eonwe and Greenie made throwaway votes.

I mean, none of his suspicions seem anything but motivated by what he's seen in the game thread. At a push, Lottie for mentioning her twice in possible wolf lists. But it's so banter driven in the first instance and reactionary to being suspected in the second that I can't really see that being the case. Also, he flip flops on her in the next two Days, so I don't think that makes sense.

Day 2
Suggests Rikae's death implicates Brinn but then says that's maybe too obvious. Doesn't look like a dream.

Questions Hui's interpretation of his words and pings Inzil.

Speaks against Hui again. Doesn't look like he's dreamed Mac here as he's still unsure about him.

Gets drawn into the Kit discussion.

Looks at Inzil after pinging him and doesn't draw much in the way of conclusions, so seems like he didn't dream him.

Looks at Greenie and seems to find her overall innocent. A Greenie-wolf could use this as cover. If Pitch was the Seer, she looks good.

Some suspicion of Legate so hadn't dreamed him.

Said he'd vote Mac or Inzil so hadn't dreamed them.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I could still vote Zil, or I could actually get behind Legate's Hui vote. A few of Hui's posts look like subtly sewing suspicion while not getting too involved in anything.

Third time he's brought up Hui. Then goes for the vote and ties Hui with Mac, making the lynch more likely to happen.

Ok, I can maybe see the wolves wondering about Pitch having dreamed of Hui here, and then going for it once there was enough support to push for the lynch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Pitch

Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

This is his first post, so pushing for Eonwe early on. And he sticks with this suspicion. Eon-wolf pack concerned that he got Hui the Day before and now him too, or wolves thinking even if Pitch isn't the Seer this is a big push at an innocent Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Could well be. There were a few exchanges between Hui and Greenie where it looked like he was taking guidance from her, so them being packmates doesn't seem unplausible.

It doesn't look like he'd dreamed of Hui and Greenie as both those names came up on Day 2.

Seems to flip flop on Brinn so an unlikely dream. Still suspicious of Inzil so didn't dream him.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I find it hard to reconcile Lottie's backing off of Mac and adding a fourth wheel to the Huiwagon with wolvishness. Also, would Hui have soft-suspected two of his packmates explicitly in connection with each other? I don't think so. I'm still leaning more towards Zil.

Right, so flipflopping on Lottie suggests not a dream.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Eönwë and to a lesser degree Greenie. Not sure about the others.

Hmm, I think that makes Greenie a less likely dream. If he'd dreamed her and Eonwe and found them both wolves then that 'lesser degree' bit wouldn't be there. And obviously if he'd dreamed her innocent she wouldn't be there at all.

Ends up voting Eonwe even amidst all the sally madness.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Pitch

It really sucks to loose Legate - maybe the only player I felt I could trust (although I felt pretty good about Mac too yesterDay).

Possible dream of Legate.

Still pinging Greenie but votes Eonwe - so very consistent with this.

Day 5
Focuses in on Boro, then backs off. Unlikely dream. (With Pitch=Seer hat off, also looks like Pitch did buy the hints Boro was putting out as he does back off.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree.

But was still unsure over Greenie in that post so I still think an unlikely dream.

Pre-votes Eonwe and Inzil.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath).

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

I'd say he hadn't dreamed Rune as he was nearly swayed by Lommy's counter argument at one point so didn't seem to have a real definite on him.

I know I've been banging on about the wolves must be going after people they think are the Seer, but I have to admit that I'm scratching my head a bit with this one. Eonwe is the big take away from it, and it could be the wolves thinking Pitch had pegged Hui and now also Eonwe, and wanted to kill him before he could catch any more of them even if that means Eonwe goes down with him. That's quite a fatalistic attitude though.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie re: Brinn

You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.

I'm not sure what to make of Brinn at this stage - I'm somewhat worried about how she's floating by without committing to anything that could become controversial, and I've reached a point where I get nervous if someone agrees with me because what if they're a wolf seeking brownie points. But regardless of what Brinn is, I think the argument for Boro and Eonwe being on the same side does make sense. As in -

The wolves are bound to be pretty desperately looking for the Seer at this stage, and if half the village noticed Boro's hints, they're bound to have done. Nobody's been able to find anything that looks half that "Seerish" in Pitchwife's posts. Sure, the wolves could have guessed Boro was bluffing; but would they really be willing to take the risk and leave him alive? So far, this pack's Night kills have looked rather safe and cautious than bold. So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

As for the Eonwe connection - if it's option 1), this would mean either that Lommy and/or Brinn are wolves, and/or that Eonwe is innocent. More specifically, the Pitchwife kill doesn't make sense if they're going for the Seer, Eonwe is a wolf and Boro isn't; both Pitch and Boro suspected Eonwe, and I can't see how Pitch could have looked more Seer-ish to them than Boro. So I'd say if the wolves are gunning for the Seer and Boro isn't one of them, then Eonwe likely isn't, either. Make sense?

If it's option 2), meanwhile, the above would explain why he's coming out now instead of letting it play out and fake-revealing at a later point. If we believe Boro's claim, then Eonwe being a likely innocent is a fairly logical conclusion. Eonwe was under a lot of fire yesterDay and quite a bit toDay, too. Something like this could be the only thing keeping both him and Boro alive and distracting the village for the 2 (!!!) days they'd need in order to win.

(I've just had a horrible thought. What if we have a pack of Boro/Eonwe/Kath? We wouldn't know what hit us.)

All this aside, I do think it's more likely that Boro is innocent. But I also stand by my conclusion that this means Eonwe likely is, too.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So to me, the only logical reasons for them not to kill Boro are either

1) he was far enough off in one of his "dreams" that the wolves knew he wasn't the real Seer, or
2) he's one of them.

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And

1a) After not falling for it. Granted I only tried to for like 2 days, once it turned out Lhuna was a wolf. I said what the heck, go for it and lay it on thick.

But wasn't convincing so now I'm probably being kept as an easy lynch. Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days. If they didn't fall for it, the pattern seems to be kill the people who look obviously innocent/difficult to lynch.

Eonwe and myself are the new Zil and Mac. At least that's what my thoughts are now. With my luck the QT innocents will now vote for me, because I ruined their trust and they're probably ****ed off. I still will tell them though, no rash decisions, I did all that I could to try to let the QT know I wasn't the seer. I thought it would send a good enough signal if they saw no purpose to what I was proposing and figured I'd be dead by now anyway.

Genuinely not seeing Boro's side, why he thinks himself an easy lynch. Ka and Eonwe both go before Boro, IMO.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Ka

It's fine to go for Eonwe here too. Don't vote Lottie or Greenie.