Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[A Little Green]

While we're tossing ideas around -

What's going on with Brinn? She's still playing pretty safe and uncontroversial. The best arguments for her innocence (as far as I can tell) have to do with her role in the Huin lynch; she voted for Lhuna, too, but only after she was already a goner so this doesn't give us much. The other argument for Brinn's innocence is how evil QT voted for her twice and then good QT laid off her. Though if good QT's choices have been informed by fake-Seer Boro, the likely reason they dropped her is because they saw the "Seer" hinting at her innocence, not because they'd have some evidence about her innocence that we don't (ie. dead Huinwolf's posts). The only thing we can get out of the QT turning away from voting Brinn is that if she is indeed Huin's fellow and the early QT votes for her an effort to make her look better, he at least managed this without slipping about her role in the QT.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rune

If he is right that QT followed his hints, then how would the known innocents have kept their trust in him a secret from the infected? Is there something I am missing?

I don't know if they'd have needed to. As soon as they're the ones controlling the vote, they could discuss potential Seers completely openly. The only risk is that if the QT later becomes evil-dominated, the bad guys could then try to signal to their living fellows re: the identity of a potential Seer. This seems pretty hypothetical to me though, as any "Seer" hinting directly enough for the QT to notice would probably have been noticed by the living wolves already anyway.

[Loslote]

A list, simplified:

Could be a wolf:
Ka
Eonwe
Brinn
Shasta

Probably not a wolf:
Boro
Rune

Probably innocent:
Lottie
Lommy
Greenie
Kath

Now, this is bold, and I am fully willing to admit that I could be wrong to put some of the players that I did in the probably innocent category - but I feel very confident that our three wolves are among the four players in the could be a wolf category. I'll also add that I don't suspect Shasta, I just think that he's the person I'm most possibly wrong about, and so if I'm wrong about any of my three main suspects, he's the person I would then look at. I would be willing to vote for any of Ka, Eonwe, or Brinn today, but for the Cuties:

+- Ka

[Brinniel]

I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.

So my suspects for toDay:
Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay
Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed.
Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf.

I don't like how quiet it is right now. Unfortunately, I have a business meeting scheduled for the last two hours of the Day, so at maximum, I might be able to slip in a vote, but you'll see little else from me.

For now, my vote would go to +-Ka.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm not sure what to make of this whole Boro mess. It's proved to be quite the distraction so far toDay, which could be brilliant if he's a wolf. On the other hand, I agree with his reasoning for suspecting Ka. And I like Greenie's "unpicking Boro" post. Her analysis seems genuine and find myself agreeing with her conclusions, particularly with the possibility that both Boro and Eonwe are innocent.

So my suspects for toDay:
Ka - similar reasons that Boro stated and also for the reasons I mentioned yesterDay
Kath - now that I know Inzil was innocent, I find her more suspicious for voting multiple Days on someone who was universally suspected. Her vote for Lhuna could've been wolf-on-wolf; if she had tried to save her at that point, it would've looked fishy indeed.
Rune - to a lesser extent. His voting record and suspicions don't look terribly innocent, but I'm not completely sold that he's a wolf.

You really have nothing to say about Eonwe beyond agreeing with Greenie and therefore lumping him and Boro together? I personally don't understand her argument that they're on the same side at all. Like, I don't understand what the argument is. What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be. Eonwe already tied the two of you together by trying to say that you looked innocent like Lommy - now you're saying he looks innocent like Boro? Looks a lot like two packmates to me.

[Kath]

As to suspicion of Rune over the Days:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Rune Son of Bjarne - Interesting to hear him admit that he usually suspects me without much cause; that might partially explain why I usually suspect him, and this game is no different. Probably not enough to vote for him though. At least do far.

There is no further mention of Rune by Eonwe on Day 1 and he ends up voting Urwen.

Day 2
Lottie looks at people who voted for Brinn late on and considers Rune being a possible wolf who voted for a Brinn packmate.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Rune: In post #117, he's most worried about G55 for her fake vote idea then turning it back on Legate. For post #134, he says he's likely to vote Eonwe for being non-committal or Kit for her reaction to Lhuna. #221, he acknowledges there's a building case against me and then agrees with it. He states he'd prefer to vote Eonwe, but votes for me because I'm the better lynch option over G55.

Impression: I don't really agree with his reasons for suspecting Eonwe and Kit - they seem weak. As for his suspicion of me, there's nothing unusual in itself about Rune suspecting me...he always does. But the way he piggybacks on the case against me is suspicious. Plus, what happened to his concerns about G55? They seem to have disappeared unless I'm missing something.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Lottie

Rune - I get a bad feeling from him, but that could be in part because he suspects me. I don't like that he essentially tried to start up a new bandwagon in the middle of the Huinwagon taking off, but that could again be an innocent who just didn't really suspect either candidate. Definitely keeping my eye on him.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Rune Son of Bjarne - Just a feeling at the moment; I need to reread his posts.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I find Rune's suspicions of Lottie to be flimsy partly because of his overreaction to that post and partly because in his description for her he finds her posts 50% reasonable, which is a bit noncommittal. I also see his vote as a bit of a throwaway; sure it was early enough to go any way, but at that time a Lottie lynch did not seem very likely. I am not as suspicious of Rune as I am of others, but I am wary of him.

Seems to be the same three people with suspicion of Rune. Most other people had him as an unsure or leaning innocent.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I'm still suspicious of Lalaith and Rune, and I suspect that at that there is at least one Infector in that pair.

So Lhuna suddenly comes swinging for Rune, who otherwise isn't much mentioned. It would seem an odd wolf on wolf move when it was really quite out of the blue.

Day 5

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Later in the Day there's a specific discussion on the topic involving Rune - Lommy seems to think that if the Infectors thought Legate was the seer this makes Rune seem good, Brinn agrees, Lhuna disagrees, they get into a debate, and THE Ka joins on the side of Lommy. I wonder about this because I actually found myself agreeing with Lhuna while reading this, but clearly she was evil. And thinking about it some more I think I agree with Lommy. Also, since this was before the QT vote for Lhuna, there was no reason for anyone to distance themselves from her, so we have to assume the responses are genuine, or at least not tainted by the fact that Lhuna was a possible quarantine-candidate. One thing I wonder whether it would occur to an innocent to look through Legate's suspicions in such a way, but then again, I haven't played in a long while... In any case, I think the discussion there feels a little bit like there may be some re-hashing of the previous Night's discussion, so I'm a bit wary of Lommy, THE Ka, Brinn. And given that this is an indirect way of defending or not defending Rune, this could go either way for him - either he's being soft-suspected by a fellow (Lhuna) or put brought back to the table (i.e. returned to being a possible vote). Either is plausible. Addendum after reading (#1053 - whoa, over 1000 posts?!): looks like Lommy still supports this reading.

I'm a little confused on this one, because it's the first time Eonwe really gives his full explanation for suspecting Rune, and it mostly seems to be based around Lhuna, but that hadn't I don't think been the basis of the suspicion until now. Also, did Lommy support this reading? I got the opposite impression from her posts and thought she'd ended up feeling Rune was innocent. Lottie also drops suspicion of Rune and I'm sure that was in relation to Lommy too.

Originally Posted by Boro

Rune >>> Eonwe

At this point Lhuna was at 4, Eonwe 3. However, Rune and Lommy (for Lhuna) voted at the same time. So when making his vote the count was Lhuna 3/ Eonwe 2. Suspicious, looks like an attempt to save Lhuna.

Boro then brings Rune into the mix with his ... whatever he was doing.

Shasta doesn't like Rune flip flopping saying Lommy is suspicious and then saying he wouldn't vote for her.

The QT vote for Rune.

Votes:
Day 5
QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
THE Ka -> Shasta

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lottie

What I see is, Eonwe came out swinging, very like a wolf who decided not to kill him and to instead try to argue that his fake reveal was suspicious, and who was surprised to find that the village wasn't super interested in suspecting Boro when he assumed they would be.

I guess that's where we differ in opinion. I find Eonwe's reaction to doubt Boro's innocence more natural because how I initially felt too. I mean - how are the innocents supposed to know for sure that he's telling the truth? Meanwhile, I think your immediate conclusion to find Boro innocent is less genuine - of course, a wolf would know if Boro's innocent.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Greenie

This seems pretty hypothetical to me though, as any "Seer" hinting directly enough for the QT to notice would probably have been noticed by the living wolves already anyway.

Coupled with a reminder ala Pitch's memory, not only do the ordos in QT not know anymore than we do, but the wolves in QT can only PM each other, not wolves alive in the GT at Night. QT wolves would be just as interested in 'seer' hints. If the fake seer is an ordo haphazardly trying to create cover and they accidentally single out an innocent, they might sit back and let QT ordos go for it first since neither the Ranger nor Hunter know who the actual Seer is anyways.
Living wolves in the GT would be more interested in who looks frustrated or generally upset over the fake seer as these could be signs of the actual Seer telling them to quit without too much reveal. This does require that living wolves in the GT do identify that the fake seer is indeed not real though, otherwise at least for a few Days, the fake-seer if successful at somehow influencing the QT vote could divide their attentions and expose them to players.
It could also be a reason why Pitch was selected the previous Night by the remaining wolves or Lal before.

Originally Posted by Rune

It is not a question of "belief", I know if the QT-vote was correct twice in a row or not (it wasn't). The real question is if you believe me or not.

Originally Posted by Rune, post #1179

You know it doesn't.

But I get why you would say that.

Considering that I have the majority of the time disregarded by voting on my own collected information or disagreed more openly with the QT votes for you, that should be the answer that I really don't believe you to be a wolf over a few Days now. If anything, I believe wolves have been using you as too convenient a cover or distraction and if the QT does that for them, all the better to buy them time for their main target. The success rate of the QT really doesn't attest to its infallibility and I've said that for Days now. So, I end up playing in my own corner and it makes me look suspicious.

The question is now since I am heavily suspected, by saying that I really do believe you to be innocent, does it matter to everyone else who follows the QT anyways?

Zil turned out to be innocent and by not going with the QT vote yesterDay, players feel a little cheated like they've missed out on possibly getting a wolf with either of us.

[Thinlómien]

Hmmm. I reread Boro's non-reveal. I think I have been thinking him the seer for longer than he has pretended to be one, so perhaps I should blame mostly myself... I thought it explained not only some of his cryptic comments, but also why he gave me both unusual and innocent vibes, why he chose to act so weird on Day1, and why he's been so adamant about my innocence when basically everyone else has questioned it (and perhaps why he did such a legate180 about Brinn). I think his reveal sounds fairly innocent (why would a wolf do any of this? or admit it?), but I would like to ask him more than ever give his updated, honest opinion of everyone - but in particular Eönwë, Brinn and myself.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I find it more likely that if anything, your fake-seeriness was an attempt to catch the real seer, which is why the two people who challenged you on it, Lalaith and Pitch, are dead.

I think this line of thought has some merit. I don't want to get super deep into this on theoretical or practical level because it could endanger the real seer, but in short: perhaps this is what could have drawn the wolves' attention to Lalaith and Pitch (possibly though even if Boro wasn't one of them). But that surely couldn't have been the wolves only reason to kill Lalaith and Pitch - in combination with having some seerish skepticism, they must have got some of their trusted villagers and/or top suspects right. Which, ironically, brings me back to Eönwë, whom they both suspected heavily.

Eönwë also reminds us of this slip of Boro's and it was enough to give me a pause:

Originally Posted by Boro

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

Like, fair enough if he was pretending to have dreamt of innocent me and Brinn. But how did he know Inzil was innocent?

But as Lottie points out, Eönwë makes basically the same slip here:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I still think his potential slip the previous Day (where it looked like he knew the identity of two innocents - now proven to be true) would be enough to make me want to make sure if I were a wolf.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

By which I mean Zil was proven to be true. The jury is still out on Brinn and maybe Lommy (depending on how you read the post).

I'm very confused all in all but - Eönwë, what post do you refer to? Why is the jury only "maybe" out on me?

Seriously this game is giving me a massive headache.

Originally Posted by Lottie

But also, it feels like you came out here toDay on a crusade to convince us that Boro's Seer hints plus the wolves not killing him means he's definitely a wolf. Which feels like the wolves decided he wasn't the Seer, and decided to go after him instead - which would be especially important if the wolves needed a big distraction to take the heat off of them.

This makes quite a lot of sense to me actually, but I'm also aware it's very much what I'd like to believe, so maybe I'm biased. Oh how easy this would be if the pack was Eönwë-Brinn-Ka and I could be right about some things for once and have a little break. It would be a simple explanation, and even in werewolf those are maybe a little more often correct than the über complicated ones.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

But if it was a slip, which two would I be talking about? Because there are three people that are implied innocent by this - you, Zil, and Brinn. Zil has been confirmed.

Are you saying you only slipped two of us are innocent because you know one of us is not? Gotcha. *Brinn-Eönwë-conspiracy intensifying*

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Whether or not the Zil-lynch yesterDay was orchestrated by the wolves (will need to look into who got it to happen), what was shown is that the village can be pushed to ignore the innocent QT's vote. This is bad.

What?! Are you saying the village has to lynch by default whoever the qt suggests?? That doesn't make any sense. As we have discussed ad nauseam, they might be a little more enlightened than we are but they are not infallible. (Certainly, if you look how they followed Boro. )

Originally Posted by Boro

I feel like needing to hide from Lommy for a moment.

Good thinking.

Originally Posted by Boro

In the end seer is still alive, so maybe it didn't work as I had intended, but to some extent it did.

...what? This sounds like your aim was to get the seer killed?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Why is my own sister calling me "virtually nobody"? Rude.

*blowing kisses in your direction*

I still don't suspect Lottie really (unless maybe if Boro turns out to be a wolf??) but her list made me raise about five eyebrows. What's the difference between "probably innocent" and "probably not a wolf"?? Like is there a middle ground? Also why on earth would you list yourself as "probably innocent"? Shouldn't you be more sure about that????

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I'm a little confused on this one, because it's the first time Eonwe really gives his full explanation for suspecting Rune, and it mostly seems to be based around Lhuna, but that hadn't I don't think been the basis of the suspicion until now. Also, did Lommy support this reading? I got the opposite impression from her posts and thought she'd ended up feeling Rune was innocent. Lottie also drops suspicion of Rune and I'm sure that was in relation to Lommy too.

Yes, I still think Legate's continued trust in Rune's innocence would have stood out to the wolves if they were reading through his posts, wondering if he was the seer. Maybe Rune is one of them and they thought Legate looked like the seer regardless. But I think it's more likely a wolf pack not involving Rune thought Legate was a seer that had dreamt of innocent Rune.

Originally Posted by Greenie

The wolves are bound to be pretty desperately looking for the Seer at this stage, and if half the village noticed Boro's hints, they're bound to have done.

I have been considering, what if not. What if our remaining wolves really are those who have not claimed to have noticed anything going on with Boro in the past, and have been baffled by his reveal toDay? Namely Brinn and Kath and presumably then either Ka or Shasta. That would be the funniest plot twist of all (and perhaps what Boro would deserve.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

As for the Eonwe connection - if it's option 1), this would mean either that Lommy and/or Brinn are wolves, and/or that Eonwe is innocent. More specifically, the Pitchwife kill doesn't make sense if they're going for the Seer, Eonwe is a wolf and Boro isn't; both Pitch and Boro suspected Eonwe, and I can't see how Pitch could have looked more Seer-ish to them than Boro. So I'd say if the wolves are gunning for the Seer and Boro isn't one of them, then Eonwe likely isn't, either. Make sense?

Yes, unless Brinn is a wolf. (Or for argument's sake: if I was.)

Originally Posted by THE Ka

Coupled with a reminder ala Pitch's memory, not only do the ordos in QT not know anymore than we do, but the wolves in QT can only PM each other, not wolves alive in the GT at Night. QT wolves would be just as interested in 'seer' hints. If the fake seer is an ordo haphazardly trying to create cover and they accidentally single out an innocent, they might sit back and let QT ordos go for it first since neither the Ranger nor Hunter know who the actual Seer is anyways.
Living wolves in the GT would be more interested in who looks frustrated or generally upset over the fake seer as these could be signs of the actual Seer telling them to quit without too much reveal. This does require that living wolves in the GT do identify that the fake seer is indeed not real though, otherwise at least for a few Days, the fake-seer if successful at somehow influencing the QT vote could divide their attentions and expose them to players.
It could also be a reason why Pitch was selected the previous Night by the remaining wolves or Lal before.

Did it take me this long to realise "GT" was not a typo for "QT" but an abbreviation of "game thread"? *facepalm* *sneaks off to confiscate they cuties' gin tonic bc it's us now who are the gin tonic thread*

More seriously though, I can't make very much sense of where you're getting with this, Ka. So do you think Boro is an innocent fake or a guilty fake?

Not sure what to make of Boro's newborn fatalism. Also:

Originally Posted by Boro

Can't deny no one really trusted me, except for the QT for 1.5 days.

I TRUSTED YOU BUT I COULDN'T SAY IT TOO OPENLY BECAUSE I THOUGHT YOU WERE THE SEER AND IT WAS BETTER TO KEEP ENOUGH VOICED SUSPICION ON YOU TO KEEP YOU ALIVE.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

...what? This sounds like your aim was to get the seer killed?

At the very least an extremely poor choice of wording.

[Eönwë]

I'm probably most keen on quarantining Boro or Brinn at this point - Boro because I still don't trust his seer behaviour and Brinn because she's sub-radar and the QT thinks she's bad. Ka comes at a close second because I suspect her less, but we would definitely would learn something from her. Rune next.

[Eönwë]

Should be back a bit before the DL.