Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Legate

Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day.

I'd take offence but for the truth of that statement.

Poor old Boro! And he was so excited for this meeting as well. What a shame.

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Form

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

Ok so apart from the Nightmare Wolf getting to go into play, the wolves gain nothing by being suicidal early on. That doesn't discount Nilp from being a wolf hiding in plain sight, though!