Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

In fact, I'd say behaviour is the first thing that finds a Wolf (as far as ordinary villagers are concerned). That's why I am kinda unhappy about the so-far noncommital talk. But yeah, there is time.

Anyway... I will have time to be around here and there in the coming hours, and hope for more discussion to start.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

I offer a completely nonbinding and nonmonetary apology for my past transgressions, Nilp, and submit that it is past the Statute of Limitations to secure any recompense from me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

If Nilp is a wolf I'm not sure I'll ever find him. Maybe I'll just vote him today and get him out of the way. I'm sure he won't mind.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'll try to go through the Day again. It's pretty bad if we have just, basically three names (?), circulating around in some vague manner only two hours before the DL. It's a fair chance none of them is a wolf and the lycanthropes lean back on their armchairs taking one more sip of wine just being pleased.

Some fresh openings would do good at this point.


EDIT: X'd with Pitch

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I had considerably busier day than I thought, but now caught up.

For the amount of posts, there is not that much content - which on the one hand is good because of easy read, on the other hand, it gives precious little information to go with. Apparently, we need a controversy like that with the pre-voting argument to start something at all. Speaking of which...

Originally Posted by Kath

At the risk of rehashing a debate from last game, are we doing stating who we're thinking of voting for again? I've got to disappear for a while and was about to do just that because it became habit!

I think this is not such a bad idea also in terms of helping the Dead Thread figure out where to cast *their* votes, once that becomes relevant. (Even though they can retract, so that should not be such a big deal. Still... I can already imagine the chaos if everyone on the Living Thread waits for the last minute to vote, as is bound to happen, and the Dead massively tumbling over each other like in PJ's movie to get the right person they want to make the Medium.)

Otherwise: I see Hui has become the most inquisitive mind here. That is a marked difference from his performance in the previous game. Of course, he might have "learned his lesson" and adopted a bolder Wolf tactic than last time, but from the overall way he's doing it, I would rather think it a sign of innocence. On a related note...

Originally Posted by Rikae

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

I basically thought the same what Rikae said - unlike others, Form's conclusion did not seem to me like a conclusion of the debate. I don't think discussing "what the Wolves would do" is anything so problematic per se. But I was rather wondering at the overall framework of what Form was doing there: whether it was just a talk, or whether he was rehashing something that he and his packmates have been debating overnight. Innocents may not tend to go so deep into the subject by themselves.

Originally Posted by Kath

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.

Essentially I would second this. Since nobody seems to be doing it, however, that also makes me think that we either have a very careful Cobbler (as opposed to the previous game), or else it's Nilp. Which is kind of a dead end because, as it's been remarked before, Nilp would have Nilp'ed himself probably no matter what he was.

But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold. Well, this is Day 1 - let's see how things continue.

Originally Posted by Loslote

One thing that occurred to me is, if we find someone that we think is the NW, would there be value in leaving them alive for a couple of Days? That way, they wouldn't be able to use their powers, and might slip up and lead us to their packmates. On the other hand, if that occurred to me, it'll have occurred to the wolves, and a wolf on the hot seat might deliberately try to fake being the NW in order to buy themselves more time. So I guess my conclusion after all of that is, probably we shouldn't hesitate to lynch the NW.

I think this whole discussion is somewhat pointless: if we think we have a Wolf, then we should lynch them, as on top of everything we have no way of verifying whether they are not only the NW, but whether they are a Wolf in the first place, until they are dead! So that should not be a question. It would be nice if one could put suspicious people "on ice" that way, but that is what ultimately wins Wolves the games.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I would laugh if Kath and Hui were co-wolves again, but I think they both have a bit different vibe from the last game (Kath is more straightforward/carefree, Hui less cautious/diplomatic) which makes me feel better about both of them.

I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.

Okay, back in a bit with some thoughts on everybody, because I realise this may pick up now...

EDIT: x-ed with a horrible bunch somewhere back on the previous page! (around Nilp's time remark) What's happening!!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)

[Boromir88]

The day began not at all the way the town expected. They were supposed to be here to discuss and choose a new leader, but were now expected to vote and kill one of their own.

"I'll make it easy today" said one of them and Nilp went to the gallows and put the rope around his own neck.

"Stop that. You're not sacrificing yourself." said some of them.

"Who are we to stop what he wants?" said some others.

As the day wore on, some suggested trying reason, some were in favor of abstaining and sharing s'mores. But for most of the day no one stopped Nilp from keeping the rope around his neck...until the very last minute.

Enough people started yelling at Nilp to get his head out of there, and despite some resistance, he stepped away.

Some started pushing Form up to the front, then another group started shouting for Huey. Nilp thought he heard his name again and ran up to try to grab the rope again, but he was stopped. It was finally decided Huey, who despite a frantic final minutes seemed to accept his fate.

The town waited around for a several minutes to see if Huey would change into a new form. He did not. The villagers hung their heads and returned home.


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 2. Silence in the town.

Wolves talk and send kill.

Seer send dream.

Ranger guard.

Beast Hunter set your trap.

[Boromir88]

The wolf-pack was in high spirits after getting the innocent Huey lynched, but they really wanted to top off the night with a successful kill. The pack debated through most of the night about who their victim would be. There was even talk of benefits moving to a vegetarian diet, being close to Greenwood the Great! But alas it was not so tonight and their victim was chosen.

They approached the residence and found their target lying fast asleep on her bed, as pure and innocent as the wind-driven snow. Better yet, it appeared she was completely defenseless and the pack would not go hungry tonight.

"She appears to be having such sweet dreams" said one of the werewolves. "Do you think we should wake her?"

Another werewolf tapped her on the shoulder "Wakey, wakey, candied snow flowers and Lottie-pops!"

Loslote awoke, startled seeing 4 snarling figures looming over her. She did not attempt to run however, seemingly knowing what was about to happen. "I am not one of the people that you seek. Dine well. Keep my bones to pick out bits stuck in your teeth! Hate to have one of you discovered for being messy eaters." she giggled sarcastically.

When the village awoke the next day, they knew there was one less of them and discovered Lottie was no longer with them. And they wept for their loss.

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

-----

It is Day 2. Werewolves cease chatter.

Townspeople, bring me a lynch in 24 hours. The 2 villagers in the dead thread will have to both vote for one of you for there to be a Medium. If one of you is chosen as the Medium today, it will be revealed in the end of day narration.

[Kath]

Oh dear. Sorry Hui! I think I should have gone with voting Blind Guardian given it was the jump onto the vote that I found suspicious, but when I voted yesterDay it didn't look like there was time for more names to be added to the pile.

And Lottie is an interesting kill. She didn't really stand out to me yesterDay so it will be interesting to look at her posts and see what the wolves might have thought they spotted.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

I'm not Legate, but I'm guessing this refers to the possibility of the Nightmare wolf taking more risks or being less concerned for their own survival, knowing they will continue being an asset to the pack even if lynched. Personally I'm not sure if we can put too much weight on this kind of speculation, especially this early in the game, but it's worth keeping in mind that one of our wolves might not be as worried about being lynched a regular wolf. Then again, catching one wolf tends to leave trails to others, so if they're playing this angle, we can probably expect the rest of the pack to be quite prepared to bus the NW.

Originally Posted by Legate

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

And to complete the list of expected D1 events, behold the debate on whether D1 is pointless or not.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Legate

Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day.

I'd take offence but for the truth of that statement.

Poor old Boro! And he was so excited for this meeting as well. What a shame.

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Form

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

Ok so apart from the Nightmare Wolf getting to go into play, the wolves gain nothing by being suicidal early on. That doesn't discount Nilp from being a wolf hiding in plain sight, though!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.

Speaking for myself, I'm trying to learn from my mistakes and not play WW when I'm supposed to be working! Anyway done with work now so I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the day, though probably won't stay awake until DL.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I had a chance to look over the thread a couple of hours ago on my phone, and thought Nog's opener was really long for an 'in-character'-type opening post. But from the PC I see it's not nearly as long as it felt.

Trust me, that post was pretty concise for Nog.

Originally Posted by Kath

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

I've never been a fan of self-votes, but unfortunately I don't think we can read anything into Nilp's. He would definitely do it as the Nightmare wolf but he would just as likely do it in any other role, too. (If anything, Nilp not self-voting on D1 would attract attention.) But regarding the NW in general, I'll be curious to see whether the pack prioritise that extra power or keeping as many of them alive as long as possible - since sacrificing one of their number would mean an extra Day for them to survive in the game.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

In general terms, I don't disagree, but in more specific terms? Well, I do disagree...

Analyzing behaviour implies to me that you're analyzing someone's behaviour against a baseline of some sort. But what is that baseline? We have no other Day's in-game data yet to go by. It's always dicey to analyze against past performances (disclaimer: over a decade ago I did that ALL THE TIME--and somewhat successfully, if my memory serves, but it was different when you played multiple games with the same players back-to-back. Saying "XX doesn't seem to be as active as usual" or "YY is being unusually serious" is far less useful.)

So what does that leave for a baseline? Other players? That's comparing apples to oranges (or Eomers to gil-galads).

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

As a scientist, I would love to be scientific, but... it's Tol-in-Gaurhoth. It's never going to be scientific, and we're fooling ourselves if we think it will.

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

hS

Edit: Crossed since Formendacil #36.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context.
...
But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

I think we're stuck with what the great Númenorian philosophers called abductive reasoning or inference, where we start from observations and then reason for the most likely conclusion - in a good case the results are plausible enough to act on, but they will never verify our conclusions.

I think Form is correct in pointing out the lack of "baseline" - or generally lack of data on Day1, but I'd not deduce from that a total futility of Day1 - even on Day1 itself.

We'll have ample time to get the ball rolling toDay.


EDIT: X'd with a bunch

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

hS

(Crossed with Nog and Nilp)

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Add in some curmudgeonly grumbling about having tonsuffer through it, and you've basically got my Day 1 feelings.

Re: Nilp's NW analysis, I think that overall, the stronger option, as he lays it out, is the second--but what isn't being mentioned in it is whether what Nog just referred to a triple-bluffing element would cancel that out. In other words, the value to zigging when expected to zag.

I think the risk/reward value to a Day 1 NW kill is higher than any other permutation for the wolves, so I don't really expect it--but even that could tell us something about the personality of the wolves (once we get deep enough in the game to get a sense of the personalities still standing).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

What daytime actions might those be?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

I would say almost assuredly yes to that last.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

Well, it's certainly not a binary choice in actual fact: but as two ends of a continuum, things lean on Day 1 far more to the the good as nothing end.

That's not saying no one should post or try--but if we catch a Wolf, let's not pretend that it was anything other than dumb luck! And if it isn't luck, it's far more likely to be manipulation by the Wolves, who are the only ones who know anyone's role, than cleverness by the Village.

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

That's a good one! You're proving against your explicit points by your deeds Form. I think you are already doing something useful.

Originally Posted by Suicidal Tendencies

the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

That's a negative.

Werewolves (4)- choose 1 person every night to kill until the number of villagers equals their own. They can communicate privately during the NIGHT phase. Living wolves can not privately communicate with dead wolves, or vice versa. [The Rules, emphasis mine]

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilp

That's a negative.

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

In the spirit of later Days... could be a non-wolf getting confused by the bit in the rules saying that all dead wolves can communicate OR a Wolf laying down some hopeful misdirection. On the basis of no info at all, I lean to toward the former.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

Very "a-HA!" of you. Hmm.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Re: suicidal Nightmare Wolf

Both normal and dream-haunting baddies would of course operate better with more information about the village (i.e., the Gifteds) but while normal Wolves can miss on a Gifted and still advance their goal (of eliminating the village), the nightlife lycan needs the information a lot more because using their power on an Ordo is a waste.

If I were a Nightmare Wolf, I basically have two possible avenues of action:

1. Get killed as soon as possible to have more chances to use my powers, and hopefully to reduce any trace of connexion with my fellow carnivores. But I'd lose access to their analyses that would be give me better chance to uses my abilities on the right targets.
2. Just play like a normal canine, have a chance to influence the village by DAY and talk to my fellows at NIGHT, so if I do end up on the chopping block I have a better chance of ruining some Gifted's NIGHT. On the other hand, I might end up leaving behind all sorts of clues to my fellows, but that's also a problem in normal games.

So, ignoring the risks one would incur in any other game anyway, the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.